Category: Saratoga

Saratoga picks, best bets, and race-by-race handicapping for the Spa meet (mid-July through Labor Day) plus the fall Belmont Stakes Racing Festival at Saratoga. Full coverage of Whitney Stakes Day, Travers Day, Alabama Stakes, Jim Dandy, Woodward, and the entire 40-day meet. From The Pony Conductor.

Saratoga Saturday Picks — Diana Stakes Day (July 13, 2024) | Best Bets & Analysis

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0/2 Friday at Saratoga for the Conductor. However, he did tout Miss Justify on the podcast. Make sure you passengers listen to that as well every morning. Mr. Ductor always divulges more information on a few additional races there. Regardless, 0/2 is unacceptable and the Conductor is salivating at Saturday’s card. Let’s Ride.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

#9 Taking Candy (10/1) – This morning line is crazy, but the Conductor likes two horses in here quite a bit. This colt ran his two best races last year at Saratoga and now returns off the bench for Cherie DeVeux. DeVeaux wins at a 21% clip with runners off 90+ day layoffs and Taking Candy has a solid work tab to boot. His races last year make him a contender vs this field and he should improve making his 1st start as a 4-year-old. The only concern for the Conductor is the 10 post with Lezcano.

#11 Bring Me a Check (15/1) – If Lezcano can’t work out a trip, the Conductor hopes this gelding pays him in cash. 1st off the claim for Maker, he stretches out to a route after two sprint races. The Conductor thinks this is the right move for Bring Me a Check. He ran a good 2nd in a stakes race at this distance at Saratoga last year. Plus, there isn’t much early speed in this race. Franco will have no trouble getting over to the rail or two path going into the first turn. This gelding can light up the tote.

Race 10: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.G1 Diana Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Moira (5/1) – Now this is an awesome stakes race. A full field of quality fillies and mares that all have a chance on paper. However, the Conductor thinks Moira is a cut above this group. She was ultra impressive in the Breeders’ Cup last fall, running 3rd with a troubled trip vs an even tougher field than she faces today. She returns off the bench in a very difficult spot, but her work tab suggests they know she’s ready to roll. Moira will get a favorable ground saving trip, then it’s mow time down the stretch.

Saratoga Picks Diana Stakes

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

The Pegasus World Cup is here and the Conductor is ready to fire. He hasn't liked a card at Gulfstream this much maybe ever. Don't listen to this if you haven't signed up at Iron Bets yet with this link. You're not allowed. Skip.
  1. Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025
  2. Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/23/2024
  3. Churchill and Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/16/2024

Saratoga Friday Picks — July 12, 2024 | Best Bets & Day 2 Handicapping

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Opening Day at Saratoga is in the books. The Conductor started the meet off nicely with a 5/2 gullet shot winner who missed the break, and a late running 7/1 2nd. NYRA has no choice but to run on the turf Friday. Let’s head into the weekend in style. Skip.

Race 4: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Inflation Nation (6/1) – This gelding showed real ability sprinting on the turf last year, He has a win at this distance at Saratoga and has shown versatility, running well over multiple distances and surfaces. He pressed the pace off the bench last time at Churchill and just tired late. Now 2nd off the layoff, he adds blinkers and has speed in a turf sprint without much early pace. Inflation Nation should have the jump on the field as they turn for home, and the Conductor thinks he’ll be very tough to catch.

Saratoga picks

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. Mdn 80k

#2 Reteko (9/2) – The Conductor is going to try to run back his success Thursday with another 1st time starter with Castellano aboard (please get him out of the gate this time Javier). The Conductor likes this colt’s work tab the best of the bunch. He had a fast 5-furlong work from the gate June 21st, followed by a breeze and a bullet from the gate last time. Tom Morley is only 8% with 1st time starters, but he’s much better at Saratoga than he is elsewhere. While Reteko was a cheap purchase price, 17% of this sire’s babies win on debut. This colt is ready to roll.

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

  1. Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025
  2. Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/23/2024

Saratoga Opening Day Picks — Thursday, July 11, 2024 | Best Bets & Full Card Analysis

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Two 2nds north of 10/1 Sunday was a solid way to end the Aqueduct meet. Absolutely nobody cares about that now as the Spa is finally back. 11 race cards on a Thursday make every passenger happy to be back at Saratoga…until the races were taken off the turf. With almost no rain prior to a little bit last night, this is a painful start to the meet. The only reason the Conductor even plays NYRA is for the turf racing. Nobody likes spitting on their customers more than horse racing. Gross start to the meet.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. S.Mdn 90k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Brown Eyed Cat (9/2) – This card stinks now that they’re off the turf, but there are a few horses the Conductor still has his eye on. This colt has two really strong 5-furlong gate works leading into today’s debut. The experienced runners in here haven’t run close to par for this level, and Saratoga 1st-time starters are a dangerous bunch. This is also trainer Bruce Levin’s specialty. With 54 1st-time starters this year, he’s winning at a 20% clip with a +$0.94 ROI. Everything screams that Brown Eyed Cat is ready to fire.

saratoga stakes picks

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.Schuylerville Stakes

#3 Sherbini (9/2) – This filly is one of the few horses in here that has shownshe can pass horses and win. With most of these babies stretching out in distance and vying for the early lead, the Conductor wants to back a filly he knows can finish. She looks to get the exact same pocket trip as she did last time. She’ll sit right behind the speed and make her move entering the stretch. Sherbini showed an impressive turn of foot on debut.

Saratoga Friday Picks — Belmont Stakes Weekend (June 7, 2024) | Best Bets & Analysis

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Maximum pain Thursday as Champagne Juan gets nailed at the wire. The Conductor is still having trouble picking himself off the mat. Alas, it’s a new day and this Saratoga card is ripe for the taking. Let’s make them pay and then some. Skip

Race 3: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) Alw 50000s

#5 Addicted to You (8/1) – This gelding has improved since moving into the Horacio De Paz barn. Last time off the bench, he was sandwiched at start, causing him to take a bad step early. He still closed strongly into a slow pace and galloped out in front of the pack. The Conductor thinks he’ll appreciate the added distance today and 8/1 is more than fair.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

#7 Run Curtis Run (10/1) – This horse ran well in his last turf start at Keeneland two back. He pressed the pace 3-wide and uncovered entire way and he never quit. You can ignore his last race in the slop. Run Curtis Run now returns to his best distance and surface and 10/1 is a massive overlay vs this group. The Conductor thinks he’s the most likely winner.

Race 11: 1 3/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G1 New York Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Fev Rover (8/1) – This mare disappointed the Conductor in the Breeders’ Cup last year. However, he will give her another shot in an ideal spot today at Saratoga. She likes a soft turf course and looks to get an ideal trip, up close or setting a moderate pace. Fev Rover is classy and will be tough to pass when she has the lead entering the stretch. Her win two back in the EP Taylor stakes was as impressive a performance as you’ll see. If she runs back to that race, she wins.

Saratoga Stakes Picks

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Saratoga Thursday Picks — June 6, 2024 | Best Bets & Belmont Stakes Weekend Preview

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Alright passengers, it’s finally Belmont Stakes weekend up at Saratoga. The forecast looks better than expected and the Conductor is licking his chops as long as the races stay on the turf. Today isn’t the greatest betting card, but Friday and Saturday are fresh meat. The Conductor does like a bomb in the Gold Cup. Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.Mdn 85k

#8 Beautiful Thief ( 12/1) – This is a wide open maiden race with a pretty weak field in the Conductor’s opinion. This 1st time starter has a solid work tab and debuts for trainer Peter Gulyas, who is 0/4 this year. However, Peter’s last 1st timer on turf scored at 17/1. Whenever Castellano hops aboard for a small barn, the Conductor takes a closer look. His jockey agent seems to know when a small outfit has one ready to fire on debut.

Race 10: 2 Miles. (Inner Turf) G2 Belmont Gold Cup Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Champagne Juan (15/1) – 2 miles is a unique distance in America and last years winner, #12 Siskany will certainly be a heavy favorite. Although he is a likely winner, he’ll be a major overlay. The Conductor will take a swing with #6 Champagne Juan, a developing 4-year-old improving with each start. He showed real ability in his win in an allowance race at Keeneland last time. He got a good ground saving trip, but when he went to make his move at the top of the stretch, the hole closed and he had to check. Champagne Juan was able to gather himself and still re-rally to win comfortably. That in not an easy thing to do going 1 1/2 mile and is a good sign that he’ll be able to handle this marathon distance at Saratoga. At 15/1 he can fill up the caboose with ample coal to do some serious damage this weekend.

Saratoga Belmont Gold Cup

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Saratoga Travers Stakes Day Picks — Saturday, August 26, 2023 | Full Card & Stakes Analysis

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Travers Stakes Picks

No need for the Conductor to play in the slop Friday. Especially after a brutal Thursday with two 2nds and a 3rd. The Ductor can’t believe it’s already Travers Stakes day. The worst meet in Saratoga history is coming to an end. Let’s get it over with. Skip.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 149500n1x

#6 Highly Flammable (9/2) – This gelding has improved in his last three starts since moving to the turf. Last time out at Saratoga, he beat an allowance field handily with a poor turf trip. He was 4-wide and uncovered almost the entire turn and still won with ease. 9/2 would be stealing from the Pony Gods.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. F.G1 Ballerina

#6 Echo Zulu (7/5) – This is a match race between her and #7 Goodnight Olive (7/5). Goodnight Olive got the best of Echo Zulu in the Breeders’ Cup last year, but the Conductor thinks she’ll turn the tables. Echo Zulu looks even better as a 4-year-old and she’s the lone speed in this race. She has no excuse here.

Race 11: 1½ Mile. (Inner Turf) G1 Sword Dancer

#5 Pioneering Spirit (8/1) – Winner of four in a row, this gelding has been dominant since switching to turf. He gets the acid test today stepping up in class, but this is a very weak Grade 1 field. The only legit Grade 1 horse is #7 Stone Age (6/5), who will be odds on. Linda Rice can continue to make a mockery of the NYRA.

Race 12: 1 1/4 Mile. Travers G1 Travers Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Arcangelo (5/2) – The Conductor has no reason not to playback Arcangelo after cashing all the coal on Belmont Stakes Day. That was the best race a 3-year-old has run to this point and he looks to get a great trip again today. He has the tactical speed to sit right off #5 National Treasure (6/1) and get the jump on #1 Forte (7/5) as they turn for home. 2/1 or better will do just fine. The only price the Conductor is mildly interested in underneath is #6 Disarm (8/1). He’s sneakily improving with each start this season.

Saratoga Thursday Picks — August 24, 2023 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

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Saratoga Picks

0/3 with two short priced 2nds Wednesday has the train leaking oil to start the Saratoga racing week. Fortunately, the forecast cleared up for today and we’re fast and firm with limited scratches. It looks like the weather gods won’t be kind tomorrow, so we need to answer the bell now. Let’s Ride.

Race 3: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) OC 80000b

#3 Easter (2/1) – This gelding overcame trouble to win two starts back and ran a strong 3rd with a poor trip last time at Saratoga. He was far back in a merry go round race and still showed a strong late kick to make up significant ground. He draws well today and Prat returns in the irons. His recent form is even better than it looks on paper and 2/1 against this field would be an overlay for the Conductor.

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Fauci (8/1) – He ran huge 1st off the bench last time. He closed from last against the flow and was the only horse to pass runners in the stretch. Now 2nd off a layoff, he’ll get more pace to run at today and will be flying late. The only concern for the Conductor is that Fauci settles for 2nd too often. He hasn’t missed the board in his 5 starts at Saratoga, but has yet to get his picture taken. He can still beat this group and should be a square price with a full field. The time is now.

Saratoga Picks

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.G2 Mohegan Sun Ballston Spa Stakes

#1 Jumbly (6/1) – This isn’t the strongest Grade 2 stakes field and this filly has been running well vs tougher across the pond. She gets a nice rail draw today and will get a nice ground saving trip. All of the Chad Brown runners will be over bet and they aren’t his most talented fillies. The Conductor will take a swing with the European invader.

Saratoga Wednesday Picks — August 23, 2023 | Best Bets & Handicapping Analysis

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Saratoga picks

0/3 Saturday at Saratoga left the Conductor sucking his thumb on Sunday. The train needed maintenance on the Lord’s day, so we kept it in the station. There were a few sacrifices made to the pony gods as well. It’s a new racing week, and it looks like today is the only day in the forecast without rain. We need to make them pay early. This glorious weather will not leave. It’s Travers week, Skip.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. S.Mdn 88k

#3 Mischief Joke (9/5) – This colt continues to steadily progress and the extra furlong should benefit him today. A first time starter will have to be very good to jump up and beat him. He’ll be a tepid favorite, but the Conductor will single Mischeif Joke to start the pick 5 while other passengers will spread.

Race 7: 1 5/8 Mile. (Turf) John’s Call Stakes

#8 Sy Dog (5/1) – He showed talent last year and looks to be rounding back into form after his last start. He ran a strong late pace figure closing into a slow pace that day and will mow be making his 3rd start off the bench. He’s a Grade 3 winner and his best race last year came going 3 turns over this Saratoga turf course. The two favorites will be hammered in here, so his morning line may be light too. He can beat this group.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. S.OC 45000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Prince of Pharoahs (6/1) – This gelding continues to improve with each start in the Dutrow barn. Last time at Belmont he failed as the favorite, but that can be excused. He pressed a hot pace going a mile that day and the Ductor loves the cutback to 7 furlongs. Irad’s mounts for Dutrow have been live lately and this gelding looks no different. He looks to get a perfect trip pressing the inside speed in the 2-path.

Saratoga Picks

Saratoga Alabama Stakes Day Picks — Saturday, August 19, 2023 | Full Card Handicapping

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Alabama Stakes Saratoga

0/1 Thursday and off the turf Friday at Saratoga has the Conductor itching to fire his coal this weekend. The forecast looks good Saturday, so we SHOULD be on the turf throughout. We have a nice menu in front of us headlined by the Alabama Stakes. Time to eat, let’s Ride.

Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 149500n1x

#2 Georgees Spirit (9/2) – The Conductor has been waiting for this filly to pop back up after her seasonal debut at Aqueduct. She showed talent last year and her race last time was exactly what you want to see in a race off the bench. She waited patiently behind a slow pace and galloped out in front of the group. Georgees Spirit finally shows back up at Saratoga today, where she broke her maiden. She draws well, will have a hot pace to run at, and gets a major rider upgrade to Prat. She’ll start our Saturday off right.

Race 9: 1 1/4 Mile. F.G1 Alabama Stakes

#9 Taxed (8/1) – It’s always a good feeling when you like a price in the feature. This filly has turned into a new animal as a 4-year-old. She romped off the bench in the Black-Eyed Susan two starts back and was best last time in the Indiana Oaks with a terrible trip. She was far back behind a tepid pace and ran a monstrous late pace figure after a wide move on the turn. Bejarano stays in the saddle, which is a concern. However, she’ll be a square price and is still worth a bet. Hopefully he Conductor will owe more coal to Uncle Sam after they hit the wire.

Saratoga Picks

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) OC 62500n2x

#2 Napoleonic War (7/2) – This gelding ran incredibly well off the bench from the 12-post last time at Saratoga. She was 4-wide and uncovered around both turns and just tired the final half furlong. Now she draws well to the inside and will be dead fit in her 2nd start off a layoff. These other rivals have gotten themselves involved in a land war in Asia. Skip

Saratoga Thursday Picks — August 17, 2023 | Best Bets & Handicapping Analysis

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Keeneland Picks

Goose egg Wednesday brought the train to a screeching halt. They took two races off the turf at Saratoga again today, while four remain on. With rain in the forecast Friday, we need to bring in some coal quick. While scouring the form and tape, the Conductor can only come up with one measly play today. If you only have one bullet, you best not miss. Skip.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) S.OC 45000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Fatima’s Blessing (8/1) – This gelding ran well including a victory despite poor turf trips at Belmont and Aqueduct this spring. He returned off a short break vs open company at Monmouth last time and was far back behind a slow pace. He ran another strong late pace figure that day and looks primed to run his best at Saratoga in his 2nd start back in the Michael Dini barn. This race should have a quick early pace, which will benefit Fatima’s Blessing as well.

Saratoga Picks