Tag: American Turf Stakes

Kentucky Derby Day Key Horses

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A group of racehorses and jockeys competing in a horse race at the Kentucky Derby.

Friday and Saturday can’t come soon enough. It’s Kentucky Derby Time! Load up the caboose! Skip!

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. F.G1 Derby City Distaff Stakes

#4 Gamine (1/5) – As the lone speed, not a good betting race.

Race 8: 1 Mile. G2 Pat Day Mile Stakes

#8 Dream Shake (7/2) – He’s run well in the strongest Derby prep races. Cutting back to a mile, the Conductor will lean on him hard.

#4 Defunded (6/1) – He ran better than it looks behind Dream Shake last time with a patented wide trip by Mike Smith. Although the pace was quick, the race flow favored the frontrunners and he made a nice middle move. Blinkers off, Irad and Baffert, he could take a big step forward.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) G2 American Turf Stakes

#13 Scarlett Sky (4/1) – This race looks to set up for a closer and this colt has the best late kick of the bunch. His win in the Transylvania was very impressive.

#6 Royale Prince (12/1) – He continues to steadily progress and now steps up in class for the always dangerous Cox barn. He looks to get a good trip and the Conductor sees him running a top effort.

#10 Next (20/1) – After showing ability on dirt last fall, connections thrust him into the BC Juvenile where he still hasn’t finished. Making his first start as a 3 year old here, he’s working well for strong Ward and gets back to the surface he’s bred for. His lone turf start last year was a nice win sprinting and he’s proven he can get the distance on dirt. At a big price, the Conductor likes his upside.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. G1 Churchill Downs Stakes

#5 Tap It To Win (8/1) – This race is wide open in the Conductor’s opinion and doesn’t have a ton of early pace for a sprint. The Conductor liked his prep off the bench last time where he easily took care of business. He can but himself in a great position early and work out a nice trip.

#3 Basin (8/1) – Making his 2nd start as a 4 year old, this colt is back to sprinting where he’s best. He’s still progressing and has yet to run a bad race at 6 or 7 furlongs. He ran well on the Derby trail last year despite the distances being to far.

#8 Get the Prize (20/1) – Stepping up in class big time after winning at Keeneland, this horse will likely be the leader early. He’s on the improve and if he can get away with moderate fractions he’s dangerous.

Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) G1 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes

#5 Domestic Spending (9/2) – You can make a case for almost every runner in this group, but the Conductor will lean on this gelding. Making his first start at 4, he ran monster races last year closing into slow paces.

#4 Ivar (5/1) – His win in the Shadwell Turf Mile last year was the best performance this field has in the Conductor’s opinion. He should like the added distance as well.

Kentucky Derby Horse By Horse Breakdown will be up later today.

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Kentucky Derby Day Stakes Pick 6 Preview

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A group of racehorses competing in the Kentucky Derby with jockeys in colorful silks on a dirt track.

Looks like rain for both Friday and Saturday can be counted on and the scratch of Omaha Beach has made everyone lose their minds.  The Conductor’s eyes are bleeding from all of the capping this week and rest assured he is not done. Full card plays for the Oaks card will be up in the morning and the same for the Kentucky Derby Day Saturday morning.  This is why we bet all of those Tuesday’s at Parx. Sharpen the axe, Let’s Ride.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 Longines Distaff Turf Mile

#4 Beau Recall (10/1), #5 Daddy is a Legend (5/1), #6 Precieuse (3/1), #8 Got Stormy (8/1) are all win contenders the Conductor will be using on top, but his top pick and key in the exacta and trifecta will be the “other” Chad Brown filly #9 Environs (8/1). She blew away the field with ease in her prep race for this spot, which was also her first start in America.  She’s won multiple times over soft turf and a step forward off that last effort gives her every chance.

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. G1 Churchill Downs Stakes

Another spread race for the Conductor, this is a horserace. He’ll use #1 Do Share (10/1), #3 Majestic Dunhill (30/1), #6 Promises Fulfilled (4/1), #8 Mitole (7/2), #9 Uncontested (10/1) and #12 Whitmore (4/1) on top.

#3 Majestic Dunhill (30/1) – The Conductor will key this bomb in the trifecta with the other horses surrounding him in each spot as well. He had no pace to run at last start over a speed favoring Keeneland track and still ran a strong late pace figure to split the field.  He’ll get a perfect setup in here and will make the Conductor a rich man when he hits the board.

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Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) G2 American Turf Stakes

#2 Social Paranoia (10/1) – The Conductor doesn’t care that it was a maiden score last start, you don’t see bigger beatdowns on turf than his last start.  He’s steadily progressing and 10/1 would be more than juicy. The Conductor will use him, #3 Digital Age (6/1) and #8 Avie’s Flatter (6/1) in this leg.

Race 10: 1 Mile. G3 Pat Day Mile

#10 Instagrand (6/5) – Cutting back to a mile he’s clearly the one to beat, if he doesn’t win you can make a case for anyone else in the field.

#7 Mr. Money (12/1) – The only other horse the Conductor will use on top here, he’s been up close to solid paces vs very tough competition in his last 3 starts. The shorter distance will be perfect for him.

Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) G1 Old Forester Turf Classic

Another very difficult race, but the Conductor will only use 3. #9 Synchrony (8/1) and #12 Bricks and Mortar (5/2) are the class of the field, but the Conductor will also use #8 Ticonderoga (8/1). Ticonderoga has really progressed in his last few starts and has a thunderous late punch.  He looks primed to run a monster race.

Race 12: 1 ¼ Mile. G1 Kentucky Derby

For full analysis go to: The Conductor’s Kentucky Derby Preview

The Conductor will use #3 By My Standards (20/1), #5 Improbable (6/1), #8 Tacitus (10/1), #14 Win Win Win (15/1) and #16 Game Winner (5/1).  On a few tickets the Conductor will get greedy and use only the 3 non-Bafferts on top.

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