Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby and Oaklawn Park Picks

A group of thoroughbred racehorses running on a dirt track during a race with a jockey in pink silks leading.

Recording nightmare so you passengers will have to read like always. A great Saturday of racing is ahead of us with the Florida and Arkansas Derby. Time to make a dent in the couch today. Skip.

Oaklawn Park

Race 9: 1 Mile. G3 Oaklawn Mile Stakes

#10 Law Professor (8/1) – Exiting a Grade 1 on turf, he was up close to a scorching pace and ran well all things considered. His last two dirt efforts could beat this group and he has the speed where the outside post is no problem. Anything 5/1 or better would be delicious

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G3 Fantasy Stakes

*2022 Pony a Day Challenge #6 Mariah’s Fortune (10/1) – 2nd off the layoff today, he ran very well off the bench last time dueling going 1 1/16 mile. Shortening in distance today with a race under his belt and Prat aboard, the Ductor sees him running a career best race.

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Race 12: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 Arkansas Derby

#6 Secret Oath (5/2) – This isn’t the strongest prep, but the Ductor is very excited for it. This filly has been visually impressive, and the Ductor will be rooting for her to take down the boys. A D Wayne Lukas filly in the Derby would be a treat.

Gulfstream Park: Race 14: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 Curlin Florida Derby

#6 Cherge It (7/2) – This colt dominated to break his maiden last time and now takes a major step up in class. The word on the street is that this colt is the goods and his works have been astounding. The Ductor thinks he separates from this group and stamps himself as a major Derby contender today

#9 O Captain (20/1) – There will be plenty of early pace in this race and this colt will make one run from the back of the pack. He ran 3rd at 87/1 last time without much of a setup and Rosario is the best rider on deep closers in the country. The Ductor sees him hitting the board again at a big number.

Oaklawn Park: Arkansas Derby Day Key Horses

Horses racing towards the finish line at Oaklawn Park with a large finish sign in view.

It’s Arkansas Derby day passengers, Let’s Ride.

Race 9: 1 Mile. Oaklawn Mile Stakes

#4 Rushie (3/1) – Working well off the layoff, he looks to get a perfect stalking trip in a race loaded with speed.

#1 Long Range Toddy (20/1) – 2nd off the bench today, he has talent and another one that will be aided by the race flow. He can spice up the exotics.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. OC 75000n1x

*Gullet Shot of he Day #5 Upstriker (8/1) – This colt showed talent in his debut and didn’t run poorly being thrust into the Breeders’ Cup Futurity last fall. Working well and making his first start as a 3 year old, he can take a major jump forward.

Race 11: 6 Furlongs. G3 Count Fleet Sprint H.

#4 Strike Power (5/1) – This horse finished extremely well after being headed on the turn last time. He has the back class and will get the jump on the favorites who are closers.

Race 12: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 Arkansas Derby

#2 Caddo River (7/2) – Concert Tour will be 1/2 in this spot, so we may be able to get around 4/1 on this colt. Last time he went off favored vs Concert Tour. In that race, he was rank early and wasted energy fighting the rider while they tried to rate him. The Conductor will play him as a likely overlay.

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Race 13: 1 1/16 Mile. Mdn 93k

#1 Continental Coins (6/1) – Stretching out after two sprints, he looks perfect for a stretch out. He’s working well, has strong breeding and Calhoun is 18% with a +$0.06 ROI 1st time routing.

The Conductor’s Arkansas Derby Day Plays at Oaklawn Park

Horses starting a race from the starting gate at Oaklawn Park with spectators in the background.

Another lock of the day winner for the Conductor was nice, but we need prices.  Let’s find a few hogs down in Arkansas. Arkansas Derby Day, Let’s Ride.

 

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 16000n1x

#1A Ransomed (7/2) – She ran well at this level last time.  3rd off the layoff, she’ll get the job done today.

Race 2: 1 3/16 Mile. Alw 10000s

#1A The Rouge Diesel (15/1) – He closed into a slow pace for a good 3rd last start.  The Conductor will mainly key him underneath in the exacta and tri.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. Alw 16000s

#4 Mines Made Up (12/1) – 1st off the claim for high % connections, he loves to win and his early pace figs make him competitive.

Race 4: 6 furlongs. 500k Grade 3 Count Fleet H.

#4 Whitmore (1/1) – He’s the class of the field.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 100k

#3 Unsweet Tea (6/1) – She had a a troubled trip and was cooked in a hot early pace last start. She showed real ability in her debut.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. OC 75000n1x

#7 Rowayton (9/5) – Cutting back to a sprint, the others don’t stand a chance.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 100k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Rocknroll Rocket (10/1) – 1st off the claim and a 1st time gelding, he shortens in distance and the Conductor likes the confidence to step him back up in class.

Arkansas Derby

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 50000n2x

#1 Ike (5/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he’ll be fit today and has run multiple races that give him a big chance in here.

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. G2 Oaklawn H.

#7 Quip (4/1) – 2nd race as a 4-year old and 2nd off the layoff, he has a major early pace edge over this group.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 16000n1x

#5 Single Gem (6/1) – He was very impressive in his blowout win last start.  He set a hot pace and still finished strongly.

Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 Arkansas Derby Grade I

*Never a Doubt Bob Baffert Lock of the Day #1 Improbable (8/5) – 2nd off the layoff, he’s working well, and the Conductor sees him putting on a show today.  He’ll be your Derby favorite after this race.

Arkansas Derby

 

Race 12: 1 1/16 Mile. Mdn 95k

#8 Verve’s Humor (7/2) – His last race was the best of the bunch and Mike Smith hops aboard.