Tag: handicapping

Moon Shot Monday: The Conductor’s Plays at Louisiana Downs

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Exterior view of Harrah's Casino entrance with illuminated signage and flags at night.

Rain took the races off the dirt yesterday at Belmont, but a nice 9/1 winner in Race 2 made it a good Sunday. Its officially Preakness week and the Conductor’s head is spinning.  He’ll give us some winners at Louisiana Downs today, then his focus will turn to the upcoming feature races at Pimlico.  We let the Derby slip through our fingers in the slop, we can’t let it happen again.  Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs. Mdn 18k

#5 Track Binder (5/1) – His low % jockey/trainer combo have lit up the tote board recently and this boy’s sire wins at a 20% clip with 1st time starters.

Race 2: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 25000n1x

#6 Zarelda (4/1) – She’s been facing much tougher and has run quality races on the dirt in her young career.  She’s bred to be even better on the lawn.

Race 3: 1m70yds. S.Clm 7500n2x

#5 Crooked as Can Be (9/5) – He bounced back nicely last race and has strong back class.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 12500

#10 Betty’s Joy’s Star (5/2) – Shipping in from the Fair Grounds, she must beat this weak Louisiana Downs field.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. S.MC 12500

#6 Shot On Windy Hill (6/1) – He’s shown good early speed and gets a major trainer upgrade to Beverly Burress, who has a +$2.04 ROI running horses for the 1st time this year.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 19000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Thegreyspider (6/1) – The drop in class helped him last time. He consistently runs the highest figures in the field.

louisiana downs

Race 7: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.MC 5000

*Never a Doubt Week Starter #6 Cool Sis (1/1) – She can’t lose.

louisiana downs

Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers at Belmont Park

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A chestnut racehorse with a jockey in white attire racing ahead during a horse race.

We finally found a few winners yesterday at Belmont. Heading into Preakness week, we need more than a few. The Conductor’s mother hopes he gets hot soon or he’s going to move back into her basement. Happy Mother’s Day from Belmont Park! Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 7 Furlongs. Clm 10000

#1 Zap Zap Zap (12/1) – He always runs well at Belmont and this race is wide open.  The Conductor will key him in the exacta.

Race 2: 6½ Furlongs. S.MC 25000

#1 Bustin Shout (12/1) – He was eased in his debut but was well bet at the windows and has been gelded since.  He can surprise the bettors who don’t follow the Conductor.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.Clm 40000n2L

#4 Roses From Ben (8/1) – She’s 1/1 on the lawn and will be a big price.  Most of these runners haven’t proven anything on the grass.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 80k

#6 Sneakiness (9/2) – Drawn well to the outside, he showed ability in his debut last fall and is working like a monster entering today.

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. S.Clm 40000

#4 Stink Man (4/1) – The Conductor has no idea what happened last start, but he showed real talent in hist 1st career start.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 30000n2L

*Never a Doubt Pay For Moms Brunch Lock of the Day #3 Hope Again (3/1) – These Tampa shippers continue to run very well.

Belmont Park

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 62500n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Saguaro Row (4/1) – She’s going to get a perfect trip, sitting behind a hot pace.  She’s steadily progressing and has run against some classy fillies.

Belmont Park

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. 100K Gold Fever Stakes

#3 Sombeyay (9/2) – This is a loaded non-graded stakes.  The Conductor would love him to be the third betting choice.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 62k

#9 Quiet Out East (4/1) – The Conductor doesn’t have a clue in here.

Esophagus Slice Saturday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

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A man in racing attire seated on a shiny black horse, both posed for a photograph.

Belmont has completely baffled the Conductor the last two days. Hell of a card today, it would be a great time for the Conductor to get hot. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6½ Furlongs. F.G3 Vagrancy H.

#4 Separationofpowers (7/5) – This filly looks like a cinch to start the card.

Race 2: 1 Mile. Mdn 80k

#6 Principled (5/2) – Heavily bet at Saratoga last summer and drawn well to the outside, this colt has talent.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 82000n1x

#2 Miss Mystique (6/1) – They layoff and low % trainer should keep her price high, she’s run well of breaks before and hast the best turf figures in the field.

Race 4: 1 1/8 Mile. G3 Peter Pan Stakes

*Never a Doubt Saturday Lock of the Day #3 Global Campaign (8/5) – The Florida Derby has come back very live and he moved into the teeth of the hot pace in there. He’s going to win for fun today.

Belmont

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) MC 40000

#2 Whiskey Is My Wine (8/1) – Whiskey is the Conductor’s water.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. Clm 50000

#4 Felix in Fabula (7/5) – He looks extremely tough to beat at Belmont on the cutback.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F. G3 Beaugay Stakes

#1 Chipolata (4/1) – She ran well to close into a slow pace and get the job done last start. She has back class and looks poised to run her best 2nd off the layoff.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 80k

#4 Structural Deficit (5/1) – A well-bred Chad Brown filly is going to be 2nd choice? The Conductor will take her.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. 150K Runhappy Stakes

#3 Firenze Fire (7/2) – 2nd off the layoff, he looks to get a perfect stalking trip, tracking a fast pace.

Race 10: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) G1 Man O’ War Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Hunting Horn (10/1) – He’s caught a yielding course and has legitimate excuses in most of his North American races.  He fits with this group and the Conductor will key him in the trifecta at a nice number.

Belmont

Race 11: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 62k

#4 Electronic (3/1) – She acted up at the gate and still ran a good 4th, closing into a slow pace in her debut. She’ll take a step forward today.

Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

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Exciting horse race start at Belmont Park with multiple jockeys and horses bursting from the starting gates.

A nice little twilight card with no rain today in New York. With the Preakness only 9 days away, we need to fill up the train at Belmont Park with funds fast. Let’s Ride!

Race 1: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 62500n2x

#5 Crimson Forest (6/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she’s been running competitive figures for this level on dirt and has only tried the turf once in her career.  She’s bred to handle the lawn just fine.

Race 2: 5 Furlongs. F.S.Mdn 62k

#3 American Song (5/2) – Trainer Jeremiah Englehart has a positive ROI this year with 1st time starters and this girl’s sire hits at 18% with debut runners.

Race 3: 1 ¼ Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 90k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Tiberius Mercurius (6/1) – 2nd off the layoff, this colt ran a strong 2nd last start, closing into a slow pace.  He also gets a rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz.

Belmont Park

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 40000

#2 Thomond Park (6/1) – Just missing last time at Tampa, he’ll appreciate the shorter distance and the Conductor has seen a lot of Tampa shippers run very well lately.

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. S.OC 40000n2x

#5 Real Dan (4/1) – 2/2 in his 1st two starts, he looks to get a perfect trip stalking a quick pace.

#7 Sicilia Mike (8/1) – He won’t win, but he’ll hit the board. The Conductor will key him underneath in the exacta and trifecta.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 12500

#6 Riot Worthy (9/2) – The Conductor will key her in the exacta because she loves to run 2nd. She looks to get a dream trip, closing into a hot pace.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 80k

#1/1A Entry (5/2) – The Conductor likes both runners, he hopes neither scratch and he can single here.

Race 8: 1 3/8 Mile. Flat Out Stakes 100k

*Never a Doubt Tell Your Boss Your Taking Friday Off and Have Yourself a Long Weekend Lock of the Day #5 Rocketry (9/5) – He had no chance last start at Gulfstream trying to close into a ridiculously slow pace. 2nd off the layoff, he’ll annihilate this Belmont field.

Belmont Park

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.S.Alw 66000n1x

#4 Love and Love (20/1) – The Conductor will take a shot in a wide-open race. She’s run well both sprinting and routing, which the Conductor like to see.

Wind Pipe Whack Wednesday at Louisiana Downs

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Dynamic horse race featuring multiple jockeys in colorful silks competing on a grassy track, showcasing the excitement of equestrian sports.

A couple of winners including the lock of the day yesterday for the Conductor. He’ll keep the train down in Louisiana for one more day before heading up to New York tomorrow. A little gumbo and a tall glass of stew on a Wednesday? The Conductor certainly will at Louisiana Downs. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1m70yds. MC 5000

#1 Bailey’s Power (5/2) – Exiting a race that has come back live and lightly raced, he’s the only runner you can possibly like in here.

Race 2: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 12500n2L

#3 Meditate (6/1) – The Conductor will find his Zen with this boy.

Race 3: 1m70yds. F.MC 5000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Catbalee (12/1) – Coming from facing tougher at the Far Grounds, she hasn’t shown much in her first two starts, but should be forwardly placed. She’s taken some money at the windows and changes barns.

Louisiana Downs

Race 4: 5 Furlongs. F.S.Clm 5000

 #2 Doc’s Rocket (9/2) – She has the strongest early pace figures and has been facing tougher lately.

Race 5: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 7500

#8 T’ Cadeau (5/1) – This gelding has been pressing hot paces vs tougher at the Fair Grounds. He gets a weaker group and a rider upgrade today.

Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs. S.OC 12500n1x

#2 Saltee Shark (9/2) – The Conductor likes his steady progression and sees him getting a perfect trip sitting just behind the dueling speed horses, ready to pounce.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. S.Clm 50003n3L

*Never a Doubt Humpday Lock #6 Kool Yankee (9/2) – He showed promise as a young colt at Louisiana Downs and is in as good form.

Louisiana Downs

Esophagus Slice Saturday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

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A racehorse with jockey number 6 walking towards the starting area at a racetrack.

Officially one week out from the Derby. The Conductor is feeling tingly on the inside. Belmont Park time, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. S.Clm 25000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 O Shea Can U See (10/1) – Dropping back into state bred competition he closed for 3rd into a slow pace last start. He’s 2/3 at Belmont.

belmont park

Race 2: 1 /16 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.MC 40000

#6 Magnesite (3/1) – Going two sprints to a route and well bet in both starts, its tough to like anyone else. In here.

Race 3: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

#4 Dowse’s Beach (3/1) – He does his best running in New York and loves to win.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. F.S.Mdn 52k

#3 Lookbothways (6/1) – She lost all chance at the start last time out.  She showed ability in her debut and will step forward today.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) Clm 40000n2L

#11 All Clear (20/1) – His races on the turf make him competitive in here, the Conductor doesn’t care about his terrible dirt form.  He’ll key him in the trifecta.

Race 6: 1 Mile (Turf) Alw 82000n1x

#7 Hoboe (5/1) – He has very strong late pace figures and loves this turf course.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 12500

#5 American Lincoln (8/1) – 1st off the claim, he won nicely last start and hasn’t missed the exacta at this distance.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 80k

#4 Value Population (8/5) – He’s bred to be the goods.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) Elusive Quality Stakes

*Never a Doubt Free Round of Golf Lock of the Day #5 Therapist (3/1) – 1st time gelding, he’s 3/3 at Belmont and has a strong late punch. He’ll solve all the Conductor’s problems.

belmont park

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. Clm 16000n2L

#3 Remstin (8/1) – Off a two year layoff, if he’s any semblance of his old self he’ll bat this group.

The Conductor’s Closing Day Plays at Keeneland

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Horses and jockeys lined up at the starting gate at Keeneland Racecourse during a race.

Closing day at Keeneland, opening day at Belmont. The train will stay in the bluegrass for one more slumber then will be stationed at big sandy for the meet moving forward.  From now thru Saratoga is horse racing heaven.  Let’s change our silly little lives. Let’s Ride.

 

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. Clm 40000b

#1/1A Entry (9/2) – The Conductor like both of the Presque Isle shippers, he’ll take either if one scratches.

Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.Alw 50000s

#6 Change of Control (5/2) – 2nd off the layoff, she has an early pace edge and is steadily improving.

Race 3: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 79k

#7 Scattered Strikes (5/2) – He’s the one to beat after dueling in his debut on a scorching pace and hanging on for 3rd. #10 Sandy Lane Kitten (12/1) is a price horse the Conductor likes.

Race 4: 6 ½ Furlongs. Alw 50000s

*Never a Doubt Friday Night Free Stews Lock of the Day #2 West Texas (2/1) – 3rd behind two next out winners last start, she’ll handle this group.

Keeneland

Race 5: 1 3/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 79k

#7 Passionof the Nile (4/1) – This filly was well bet in her debut, was very wide and only beaten 2 lengths closing into a slow pace. Easy bet back.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. Alw 81000n1x

#6 Uber Kick (8/1) – 3rd off the layoff, he ran a good 2nd at this level last start and the Conductor sees him taking another step forward.

Race 7: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Alw 81000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Crafty Daddy (6/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he’s steadily progressing for top connections.

Keeneland

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 100000n3L

#3 Lady T N T (5/2) – 3rd off the layoff, she looks to run her best today.

Race 9: 1 ½ Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Bewitch Stakes

#7 Maroubra (5/1) – The Conductor liked her late kick, closing into a slow pace last start. 2nd off the layoff, she’ll be even better.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 40000

#2 Baladera (8/1) – She just missed at this level last start in her 1st try on the Keeneland dirt. 2nd off the layoff, she has a big chance.

Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Plays at Keeneland

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Three thoroughbred horses racing on a dirt track with jockeys in colorful silks during a horse race.

Only 9 more sleeps until the Derby, Keeneland time, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 3/16. (Turf) F.Alw 81000n1x

#5 Darling Vera (8/1) – She was very impressive in her maiden breaker closing from the clouds into a moderate pace. Her late pace figures give her a chance even though she’s taking on winners for the first time.

Race 2: 1 Mile. F.OC 80000n3x

*Never a Doubt Friday Eve Lock of the Day #4 Jala Jala (7/5) – The Conductor liked her in a stakes race that he can’t remember the name of that she scratched out of last week. This field is much weaker.

Keeneland

Race 3: 1 ½ Miles. (Turf) Alw 81000n1x

#7 Kurlin Rock (4/5) – Chalk.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. MC 20000

#5 Strafford (15/1) – None of the runners with experience have run a figure even close to par for this level.  Trainer Lee Thomas can surprise with debut runners.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 81000n1x

#5 Lessons From Avery (7/2) – With lots of speed signed on in here, she looks to get a perfect stalking trip.

Race 6: 4 ½ Furlongs. Mdn 60k

#1 Johnny Unleashed (8/1) – He showed real early gas in his debut, he’ll be more fit today.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 85000b

#4 Sensitive (2/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she looks ultra-tough to beat.

Race 8: 4 ½ Furlongs. Mdn 60k

#6 Apple Empire (8/1) – His dam has produced a ridiculous 10 winners from 11 starters and two stakes winners.  This colt is also posting bullet works at Keeneland.

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 79k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Oxburger (10/1) – This son of tapit was well bet in his debut and had a troubled start.  He’ll be a nice price and has a lot of upside.

Keeneland

Wind Pipe Whack Wednesday at Keeneland

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Horses racing at Keeneland Racecourse with a large crowd watching the event.

The final wind pipe whack Wednesday at Keeneland is upon us. Sad yes, but we can’t get too down with the Triple Crown season right around the corner.  Let’s rob Keeneland blind, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 1/8 Mile. OClm 10000

*Never a Doubt Hump Day Lock #3 Strut The Ring (2/1) – He’s clearly the one to beat in the Conductor’s eyes. Struuuuut.

Keeneland

Race 2: 1½ Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 81000n1x

#5 Cured by Kitten (5/2) – Chalk again.

Race 3: 4½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 60k

#11 Anna’s Fast (2/1) – This 470k Wesley Ward trainee will certainly blow them away.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 79k

#6 Miss Rombauer (6/1) – She was well bet in her debut at Saratoga and had a troubled trip. Now she adds blinkers today and is also bred to be a good one.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. Clm 40000n2L

#4 Psychoanalyze (8/1) – He’s coming off a long layoff, but has strong back class and early speed in a race completely devoid of pace.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 79k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Keepme in Thegame (10/1) – 435k at auction, she’s bred for the lawn for top connections. The Conductor also doesn’t like the runners with experience in here.

Keeneland

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. Mdn 79k

#8 Cavaradossi (9/2) – Stretching out 2nd off the layoff, her lone race at Keeneland was also his best and would beat this group.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 81000n1x

#1A Vegas Kitten (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she was hung wide and closed well into a slow pace. Additionally, Rosario is also red hot in the irons.

Trachea Kick Tuesday: The Conductor’s Plays at Turf Paradise

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A thrilling horse race featuring multiple horses racing on a green track with spectators in the background and a grandstand.

The Conductor has already had enough of this week. How is it only Tuesday? Let’s hit some prices today at Turf Paradise and solve all our problems. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 300yds. Alw 5200n2x

#8 Higher Icon (3/1) – Scoot!

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 12500

#2 Keeponrockinmebaby (6/1) – Her sire has produced multiple winners, including 1st out.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. Clm 85000

#4 Jimjimmyjames (6/1) – He’s trending in the right direction and has past races that would beat this group.

Race 4: 1 Mile. F.Clm 3000b

#5 Never Mizz (15/1) – By far the longest price on the board, she has early speed in a race devoid of pace. If the can hit the board the exacta and tri will pay big even with a small field.

Race 5: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Clm 8500b

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Housemaker (6/1) – She caught a slow pace last time, she has the best late pace figures in the field.

turf paradise

Race 6: 5 Furlongs. Clm 3000b

#5 Ladies Man (3/1) – Shipping in from California, his back class will be too much to handle.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 3000b

*Never a Doubt Written in Pen not Pencil Lock of the Day #5 Jack Mormon (4/1) – He’s dropping back to the class level where he crushed two starts back.

turf paradise

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) OC 15000b

#3 Mantracker (5/1) – He’s posting bullet works at Turf Paradise and will be facing his weakest competition to date.