Tag: Jessamine stakes

Keeneland: Key Horses for Thursday, October 8

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A group of jockeys riding horses during a race at a crowded racetrack.

Thank the Pony Gods for that one, Aunt Pearl looks like the real deal. Keeneland is a fickle beast and the Conductor was whiffing by miles Wednesday. He’ll be more selective Thursday, focus on the higher quality races and bet with both fists. Skip.

 

Race 3: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 70k

*Double Barreled Buckshot #7 Flutiste (5/1) – Going two sprints to a route for Motion, this filly ran a good 3rd last time at Kentucky Downs and the Conductor sees her improving with the added distance and race experience. Speed and Kentucky Downs shippers have been running well on the turf so far this meet.

#4 Mummy Dearest (8/1) – This filly ran decent in her debut behind Flutiste and will also be stretching out for the first time. Trainer Michael Ewing is 7/17 with a +$1.56 ROI with horses routing for the first time this year.

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Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 100000n2x

#5 Sonneman (8/5) – This colt is steadily progressing in the Assmusen barn and is dropping out of graded stakes competition. His class should be too much for this group.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. MC 75000

#4 Ghost Fighter (5/1) – Switching back to dirt 2nd off the layoff, this colt is exiting a key race at Kentucky Downs and showed ability on dirt last year. He adds blinkers today as well.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Mdn 70k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #11 Sovereign Appeal (10/1) – This filly had a tough trip last time at Keeneland and throw out her race on grass two back. She ran a very good 2nd at Churchill in July and will stretch-out with blinkers for the first time today. The Conductor loves her upside at a big price.

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Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 78000

#6 Spectacular (3/1) – Dropping out of Grade 1 company, he was up close to a hot pace last time. He should be able to dictate the pace against a weaker field here and wire them.

#9 Monarch’s Glen (10/1) – Use him underneath in the exacta and trifecta. Ignore his last race on a sloppy track and look at his 2nd behind Grade 1 winner Digital Age two back.

Keeneland: Key Horses for Wednesday, October 7

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Concrete Rose, a thoroughbred racehorse, galloping during a race with a jockey in purple and white attire, showcasing speed and agility.

Graded stakes, full fields and plenty of juicy prices. That’s just what the Ductor ordered at Keeneland on a Wednesday. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 1/8 Mile. Mdn 70k

*Best Bet #2 Airstreem (8/1) – The Conductor is praying we get a price around this morning line. This colt was bet to favoritism off a year layoff last time, was 4wide into the first turn and was sitting behind a slow pace. Trainer Kelsey Danner is 10% with a +$1.38 ROI this year with runners 2nd off the layoff.

Other Contenders: 6

Race 2: 1 Mile. F.Clm 30000n2L

Windpipe Whack Wednesday Bomb of the Day #3 Templuna (15/1) – Throw out her last race sprinting on synthetic, this girl fits right in with this group at a big price. She drops in class to her lowest career level and is clearly best routing on dirt with limited opportunities. Trainer John Wainwright is only 3% this year, but is 3/18 with a +$0.03 ROI with runners going sprint to route.

Keeneland

Other Contenders: 5,6

Race 3: 1½ Mile. (Turf) Alw 73000n2x

#9 So High (12/1) – The Conductor likes is gelding’s European form and is consistent runner. He’s run in the exacta 5/7 times and on three different surfaces. The distance is his friend as well.

Other Contenders: 5,8

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. F.OClm 10000

#6 I Dream of Lois (6/1) – This mare ran sneaky well sprinting on the turf last time vs tougher. She made up ground, closing wide into a slow pace and she’s an old warrior. She’ll be able to work out a good trip in this race up close to a slow pace, and trainer Thomas Vance is 32% with a +$2.44 ROI this year switching runners from turf to dirt.

Other Contenders: 1,7

Race 5: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Alw 71000n1x

#6 Battalion (12/1) – He’s run well in his last two starts with trouble at the start and the step up in class today is deceiving. The Saratoga shippers seem to be firing at Keeneland early in the meet.

Other contenders: 2,9

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. F.Alw 25000s

#6 La Femme Royale (9/2) – The layoff doesn’t concern the Conductor since she’s won multiple times off long breaks and is working consistently. She draws a nice post, can go to the lead or sit right off and she loves to win.

Other Contenders: Queen Nakia (1/1)

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 JPMorgan Chase Jessamine Stakes

#7 Aunt Pearl (3/1) – This filly looked like the goods in her debut. The Conductor sees her putting on a show today.

Single!

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. MC 30000

#2 Vedder (4/1) – Cutting back to a sprint and trying dirt for the first time, he posted a bullet last work at Keeneland and looks to run a career best. Trainer Eddie Keneally is also 22% with a +$1.12 ROI with runners 2nd off the layoff.

Other Contenders: 8

The Conductor’s Wednesday Preview at Keeneland

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A group of racehorses with jockeys in colorful silks competing on a dirt racetrack.

Elate let us down yesterday in the late pick 5 at Keeneland, in a sequence that the Conductor otherwise saw perfectly. Never too early to prep for Wednesday.

Race 1: 1 1/8 Mile. Clm 30000n2L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Treasure Trove (6/1) – Switching back to dirt 3rd off the layoff, this boy is also a 1st time gelding. Trainer Kellyn Gorder is adept with this move, being 28% with a +$0.29 ROI switching runners from turf to dirt this year.

keeneland

Race 2: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 71k

#3 Shared Legacy (6/1) – This colt bobbled at the start and pressed a hot pace last time and still ran well. He should step forward and appreciate the shorter distance here.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. Clm 50000n3L

#6 Senor Jobim (5/1) – The Conductor sees him rounding back to a peak effort.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 20000

#4 Dreaming Diamonds (4/1) – This filly stepped forward last start and the Conductor sees her continuing the progression.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 71k

#2 Ramsey Solution (4/1) – This colt is bred to be a good one and the Conductor doesn’t like the runners with experience in this group.

Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs. Alw 73000n1x

#9 Breaking News (15/1) – #4 Honest Mischief (1/1) looks tough to beat, but the Conductor likes this colt to hit the board at a big price. 2nd off the layoff, he ran a monster late pace figure in his return to the races last start. The Conductor will key him in the exacta and tri.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 JP Morgan Chase Jessamine Stakes

#9 Diamond Sparkles (6/1) – This filly ran very well last time vs Grade 1 company closing into a slow pace. She looks to get a much better setup in here with a hot pace to run at. Anywhere close to 6/1 would be glorious.

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. MC 30000

#12 New York Style (9/2) – The only concern is the post at Keeneland.

Killing Keeneland: Wednesday’s Keys to the Late Pick 5

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View of the Keeneland paddock area with spectators observing horses and handlers in a grassy setting.

Not a good day at Parx yesterday, but none of you played anyway.  The Conductor is taking the train back to Kentucky today to find more 23-1 winners at Keeneland.  We need a big day to turn this week around.  The Conductor will be swinging for the fences, Keeneland, you protect your neck.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 50000

#11 Floss Dancer (6/1) – In this wide open maiden claimer, the Conductor will lean on this filly drawn to the outside.  Her dam has produced 4 winners from 8 starters and trainer Albert Stall Jr. is hitting at a preposterous 38% clip with a +$1.47 ROI debuting maiden claimers.  She’s working well and all signs point to her running a big one.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 69000n1x

#3 Lenamarie (5/1) – This $335k filly broke her maiden impressively at Keeneland last fall and has only raced once since.  She’s been working consistently well entering today and the Conductor isn’t concerned about the layoff with these connections.  Drawn well to the inside, she should get a ground saving trip and the Conductor thinks she has the most upside in this field.

Race 6: 6½ Furlongs. OC 100000n2x

#12 Smart Remark (8/1) – Up close to a hot pace at turf last start, this gelding ran better than it looks on paper.  He should improve in his second start off a layoff and switching back to dirt, his preferred surface.  He’s run his two best career races in his two starts on the Keeneland dirt and drawn well to the Conductor is salivating to bet him at 8/1

Race #7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F. G2 JPMorgan Chase Jessamine Stakes

Where else can you get a Grade 2 on a Tuesday? The Conductor loves this place so much.

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Pekhet (8/1) – She finished in front of the likely favorite in here #12 Fierce Scarlett in her debut then broke her maiden in her next start at this distance.  She has a better post than the outside favorites and should be able to dictate her own trip sitting just off the leave.  In a race where many haven’t proven they can go two turns, 8/1 is stealing.

Image result for gullet animal

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. Clm 20000n2L

*Never a Doubt Mortgage Lock of the Day #2 House of Commons (7/2) – The Conductor is going for a new house again today and he will single this gelding in all of his wagers.  He’s taking a major class drop today and made the lead last time out against much better.  He has 2 figures above par for this level in his young career and his early pace figs tower over this field.  Its not a question of whether he wins, the question is by how many.

Keeneland