Its going to be a long two day grind at the office, Let’s Ride.
Race 1: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 50000s
#5 Tom’s Last General (9/2) – He just missed last start setting a hot pace vs similar competition. He should get a favorable trip without much other speed in here.
Race 2: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 80000n3x
#6 Magical (6/1) – This filly is making her first start of the year, but the layoff is no concern with top connections. She has an earl pace edge over this field, which is very dangerous in any sprint.
Race 3: 7 Furlongs. F.OC 75000n1x
*Never a Doubt Early Pick 5 Lock of the Day #3 Lady Kate (5/2) – Cutting back 2nd off the layoff after pressing a hot pace vs Grade 1 company, she’s going to bury them.
Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 100k
#4 Heirloom Kitten (12/1) – The Conductor doesn’t particularly like the runners with experience in here and he likes this colt’s work tab.
Race 5: 7 Furlongs. F.G2 Eight Belles Stakes
*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Bizwhacks (20/1) – She ran sneaky good in the Ashland last start and is steadily progressing. The Conductor loves the cutback and will key her in the trifecta.
Looks like rain for both Friday and Saturday can be counted on and the scratch of Omaha Beach has made everyone lose their minds. The Conductor’s eyes are bleeding from all of the capping this week and rest assured he is not done. Full card plays for the Oaks card will be up in the morning and the same for the Derby Day Saturday morning. This is why we bet all of those Tuesday’s at Parx. Sharpen the axe, Let’s Ride.
#4 Beau Recall (10/1), #5 Daddy is a Legend (5/1), #6 Precieuse (3/1), #8 Got Stormy (8/1) are all win contenders the Conductor will be using on top, but his top pick and key in the exacta and trifecta will be the “other” Chad Brown filly #9 Environs (8/1). She blew away the field with ease in her prep race for this spot, which was also her first start in America. She’s won multiple times over soft turf and a step forward off that last effort gives her every chance.
Race 8: 7 Furlongs. G1 Churchill Downs Stakes
Another spread race for the Conductor, this is a horserace. He’ll use #1 Do Share (10/1), #3 Majestic Dunhill (30/1), #6 Promises Fulfilled (4/1), #8 Mitole (7/2), #9 Uncontested (10/1) and #12 Whitmore (4/1) on top.
#3 Majestic Dunhill (30/1) – The Conductor will key this bomb in the trifecta with the other horses surrounding him in each spot as well. He had no pace to run at last start over a speed favoring Keeneland track and still ran a strong late pace figure to split the field. He’ll get a perfect setup in here and will make the Conductor a rich man when he hits the board.
Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) G2 American Turf Stakes
#2 Social Paranoia (10/1) – The Conductor doesn’t care that it was a maiden score last start, you don’t see bigger beatdowns on turf than his last start. He’s steadily progressing and 10/1 would be more than juicy. The Conductor will use him, #3 Digital Age (6/1) and #8 Avie’s Flatter (6/1) in this leg.
Race 10: 1 Mile. G3 Pat Day Mile
#10 Instagrand (6/5) – Cutting back to a mile he’s clearly the one to beat, if he doesn’t win you can make a case for anyone else in the field.
#7 Mr. Money (12/1) – The only other horse the Conductor will use on top here, he’s been up close to solid paces vs very tough competition in his last 3 starts. The shorter distance will be perfect for him.
Another very difficult race, but the Conductor will only use 3. #9 Synchrony (8/1) and #12 Bricks and Mortar (5/2) are the class of the field, but the Conductor will also use #8 Ticonderoga (8/1). Ticonderoga has really progressed in his last few starts and has a thunderous late punch. He looks primed to run a monster race.
The Conductor will use #3 By My Standards (20/1), #5 Improbable (6/1), #8 Tacitus (10/1), #14 Win Win Win (15/1) and #16 Game Winner (5/1). On a few tickets the Conductor will get greedy and use only the 3 non-Bafferts on top.
The posts were drawn yesterday and the Conductor able to chart out the race. With speed drawn to the far inside and outside and Omaha Beach right in the middle, he doesn’t see how this pace doesn’t heat up. The Conductor still has a lot of work to do in the Saturday under-card, but he’s got the big boy locked up. Only 3 more sleeps, strap in, Let’s Ride.
*UPDATE – Omaha Beach has scratched which stinks for the Conductor. It won’t change his win contenders, but will hurt their prices.
Race 12: 1 1/4 Mile. G1 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve Grade I
#1 War of Will (20/1) – Rail draw and a major setback last race, he’s a straight toss for the Conductor.
#2 Tax (20/1) – The Conductor likes this colt a lot. He’s got the heart of the champion but the distance is a question. He’ll be used underneath early.
*#3 By My Standards (20/1) – He’ll be one of the four horses the Conductor will be using on top and trying to get alive to in all his bets. He’s steadily progressing with every start and the Conductor loved the way he kicked home in the Louisiana Derby. He’s working well at Churchill by all accounts.
#4 Gray Magician (50/1) – He won’t be anywhere on the Conductor’s tickets.
#5 Improbable (6/1) – An obvious contender with major talent, the Conductor is still a little undecided on him. He was restless in the gate in the Arkansas Derby and ran a solid 2nd and is working like a monster. He’ll be used in 2nd and 3rd and may be the 5th horse the Conductor includes on top.
*UPDATE– The Conductor is definitely using him on top.
#6 Vekoma (20/1) – Winner of the Bluegrass, he took advantage of a speed biased race track and the Conductor doesn’t like his action. The Conductor doesn’t see him hitting the board.
#7 Maximum Security (10/1) – He romped in the Florida Derby and is a legitimate contender, but if he wins, the Conductor will lose. He still hasn’t proven he can take early pace pressure and still finish. He’ll only be used underneath.
*#8 Tacitus (10/1) – He’s the Conductor’s 2nd favorite colt in here. His Wood performance was very impressive, winning after getting slammed and checked going to the first turn. He proved he can overcome trouble and that is a major key in a 20-horse field. He’ll be used on top.
#9 Plus Que Parfait (30/1) – The Conductor won’t use him anywhere.
#10 Cutting Humor (30/1) – He has strong late pace figures and has an outside shot to run 3rd or 4th but no higher.
#11 Haikal (30/1) – Same analysis as #10 Cutting Humor
#12 Omaha Beach (4/1) – *SCRATCHED The Derby favorite and rightfully so. He’s been tough as nails, turning away grade 1 winners in his last two preps. The Conductor sees him running a solid race, but will be up in the teeth of what he sees as a hot early pace. One of the Conductor’s horses will pass him late.
#13 Code of Honor (15/1) – He had no chance trying to close into a tepid place in the Florida Derby. The Conductor can see him rounding out the bottom of the tri or super.
***#14 Win Win Win (15/1) – Exiting the Bluegrass Stakes he’s the Conductor’s top pick in this year’s running of the roses. He got absolutely stopped on the turn at Keeneland and still re-rallied against a speed favoring track for a game 2nd. He’ll appreciate the added distance and will have pace to run at. The Conductor sees him sitting mid pack and engulfing them at a big price down the stretch. Kick Home!
#15 Master Fencer (50/1) – Toss
*#16 Game Winner (5/1) – The 4th horse the Conductor will absolutely use in the horizontal wagers and the Baffert the Conductor like most. He’s was wide on both turns in the Santa Anita Derby and galloped out past Roadster despite getting nailed before the wire. He can run all day and is battle tested.
#17 Roadster (6/1) – He had a perfect trip in the Santa Anita Derby and the Conductor doesn’t see him getting another one from the 17 post. He has talent, but the Conductor will only use him underneath.
#18 Long Range Toddy (30/1) – He ran a dud in the slop last time and it looks like there will be rain in Louisville Saturday. He’ll drop to the back and make one run, the Conductor will only use him in 3rd and 4th.
#19 Spinoff (30/1) – The Conductor likes him, but he’ll have to expend a lot of energy early to get position going into the first turn. He’ll be in the mix when the turn for home, but the Conductor doesn’t see him getting his picture taken. Underneath for sure tho.
#20 Country House (20/1) – He’ll be coming from the back of the back, again no better than 3rd.
#21 Bodexpress (30/1) – He benefited from being up close to a slow pace in the Florida Derby. From the far outside the Conductor can’t see him running better than 4th.
Top Pick: #14 Win Win Win (15/1)
Winning Contenders: #3 By My Standards (20/1), #5 Improbable (6/1), #8 Tacitus (10/1), #14 Win Win Win (15/1), #16 Game Winner (5/1)
The Conductor’s Derby Stakes Under-card analysis will be up tomorrow.
Full card plays will be up Friday, but the Conductor is generously giving us his contenders in the feature races on the Oaks card. Nothing like hitting the pick 4,5 and 6 Friday so we can unload on Saturday. Let’s Ride.
Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F. G3 Edgewood Stakes
#1 Newspaperofrecord (3/5) – This super filly is making her 1st start of the year, but she can’t possibly lose. The ground will have some cut in it as well, which she’s proven to relish.
#1 McKinzie (8/5) and #8 Seeking the Soul (5/2) look to be the only two contenders to the Conductor.
*UPDATE – Upon Further Review the Conductor will also use #6 Instilled Regard (8/1) as a backup.
Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. G1 La Troienne Stakes
#1 She’s a Julie (7/2), #2 Blue Prize (3/1) and #9 Secret Spice (3/1) are all logical contenders that have big chances, but the Conductor has a price he will key in the exacta and trifecta and use in the horizontal wagers.
#7 Teresa Z (15/1) – This mare is a closer and looks to get a nice setup with lots of speed signed on in this one. She impressed the Conductor last fall and looks primed to run a top effort 2nd off the layoff. She’s done her best running on a wet surface as well and the forecast calls for rain like every derby weekend.
Race 9: 7 Furlongs. OC 62500n2x
This is the most open race in the sequence and the Conductor will likely spread wide and deep unless number #15 Soul Streit (2/1) gets into the field. He’ll be tough to beat. #7 Solid Wager (5/2) is a solid favorite but can be beaten.
#12 Fuel the Burn (20/1) – The Conductor’s favorite bomb in the race is this horse exiting a solid win at Keeneland. Winner of 3 of his last 4, he’s become a new animal on the dirt. His figures fit against this group and the Conductor sees a peak performance coming 2nd off the layoff.
#6 World of Trouble (1/1) – He’s the best turf sprinter in the country period. The Conductor will likely single but may use a saver with #8 Undrafted (8/1) and #9 Will Call (10/1). He can see a scenario where #1 Bound for Nowhere (3/1) makes World of Trouble go too quick on the lead and give the two best closers a shot down the lane.
Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. F. G1 Longines Kentucky Oaks
In the feature race of the day, the Conductor is going to TOSS the favorite Bellafina (2/1). She’s been beating up on nobodies in California and this looks like a complete pace meltdown on paper. The Conductor will look for contenders who can pass horses down the lane.
He’ll use #1 Out for a Spin (15/1), #3 Lady Apple (20/1), #10 Champagne Anyone (6/1), #11 Jeltrin (15/1), #14 Restless Rider (6/1) and #15 Dunbar Road (5/1) and #16 Point of Honor (20/1) if there are scratches and they draw in.
UPDATE: The Conductor will also be using #2 Chocolate Kisses (20/1)