Tag: kentucky oaks

Oaks Day Picks – Churchill Downs

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Horses racing at Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs with a large crowd

Below are the Conductor’s plays for the rest of the card, headlined by a live longshot in the Kentucky Oaks.

Featured Play — Race 13, Kentucky Oaks

Win: #5 Meaning (currently 8/1)

The Oaks is wide open this year, and the Conductor is taking a shot with #5 Meaning at a square price of 8/1. She was up close to a hot pace last time out and still finished the job. There isn’t much speed in this race and she should get the jump on the field as they turn for home. Meaning has every chance to hold off the closers in the lane. Lets fill the caboose with coal for Derby Day. Skip

The Rest of the Card

RaceAB
392, 10, 11
41, 73, 4, 11
511, 101, 5, 6
65, 62, 8, 12
73, 4, 65, 9
86, 83, 4, 9
982, 3, 7
1063, 5
117, 91, 5, 8
124, 92, 3, 5, 8, 11
1352, 9, 10, 11

Kentucky Oaks Friday: Best Bets and and Analysis

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A group of horses racing on a grassy track during a horse racing event with spectators in the background.

Derby weekend is already here. Two days of stacked cards and great betting opportunities. Just remember, you can win a lot more money Saturday when you stack coal on Friday. Skip

Race 3: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 120k

#3 Profound (4/1) – This filly was hammered at the windows in her debut at Saratoga last summer and had a terrible trip. Now she returns on Derby Day with a nice inside draw and gets Lasix for the first time. The DeVaux barn is heating back up and this filly will show her true ability today.

#12 Moon Channel (6/1) – This filly ran a monster 2nd last time at Keeneland. She started slow, but closed well for 2nd into a tepid pace. The post is a concern today, but she can’t be ignored off her debut.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G1 Fasig-Tipton La Troienne Stakes

#4 Raging Sea (9/2) – The Conductor sees Chad Brown taking down #2 Thorpedo Anna (2/5) today. The other Chad Brown runner, #5 Randomized (6/1), will be used as a rabbit to soften up Thorpedo Anna early. Raging Sea should sit a dream trip and pull off the upset.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.Modesty G3 Modesty Stakes

#7 She Feels Pretty (6/5) – Not a big price, but the Conductor thinks this filly is a cinch. She’s a monster and always runs well regardless of trip. This group can’t beat her.

Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G1 Longines Kentucky Oaks

#14 Quietside (8/1) – With the scratch of #8 Five G (12/1), this race doesn’t have as much pace as anticipated. This helps Quietside as she should be able to get into a good outside stalking position heading into the first turn. As long as she doesn’t get hung 4-wide, she should be in an ideal spot. She’s sitting at 9/1 right now in the win pool and that’s a major overlay for the Conductor. Let’s whack a square price in the Oaks and head into Saturday with ample gunpowder.

Kentucky Oaks Day Preview

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Chart displaying post positions and morning line odds for the Kentucky Oaks 2021 horse race.

Alright passengers, Derby week is here the Conductor has been locked up in his lair. He only sees the sun to stretch Skip’s little legs. Kentucky Oaks Day is done, Derby day will be done by tomorrow. Aim small, swing heavy and don’t let them up for air. Skip!

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. G2 Alysheba Stakes

#5 Roadster (9/2) – He ran very well setting a contested pace in the New Orleans Classic off a layoff and was only beaten 3/4 of a length. Working well back in the Baffert barn, he’s shortening in distance and is the lone speed here. The Conductor will take a shot against #6 Maxfield (4/5).

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 Edgewood Stakes

#6 Aunt Pearl (4/5) – She looks like a cinch gate to wire. The Conductor liked #2 Gift List’s (7/2) effort chasing a lone leader last time in the Appalachian, but she’ll likely be 2nd choice and up against the same scenario in this one.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G1 La Troienne Stakes

#5 Paris Lights (8/1) – After Letruska’s performance in the Apple Blossom, #2 She’s a Daredevil (8/5) looks tough to beat. The most intriguing alternative for the Conductor is this hard knocking filly. She edged out Crystal ball at Saratoga in a slugfest last Summer and grinded out a victory sprinting off the bench last time. She’ll stretch back out to her preferred distance here and looks to get a perfect trip with first run on the frontrunners. The Conductor envisions a career best effort

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. F.G2 Eight Belles Stakes

*#6 Slumber Party (6/1) – If this filly is near this morning line the Conductor will unload the caboose. She destroyed Pass the Champagne in her debut and had a tough trip last time, stuck on the inside until it was too late. This race is loaded with speed and the Conductor likes the experience she gained off the pace last time. Irad looks to fit her perfectly as well.

#9 L’il Tootsie (8/1) – This girl made a nice move on the turn before flattening out last time and the turnback in distance is perfect for her. Her maiden breaker sprinting was very fast and she looks to get an ideal trip in this race. She’ll be likely double digit odds and a solid play underneath.

Race 10: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) G2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes

#1 Johnny Unleashed (10/1) – The Conductor really liked this gelding’s effort in the Shakertown as he dug in gamely on the inside. This is a much weaker field than the Skakertown and although this will be a heavily contested pace, he may be the speed of the speed. He’s improving and will be a nice price.

#9 Diamond Oops (5/1) – This gelding is the class of the field and is working well entering his first start of the year. He won this race off the bench last year and he looks to get a nice trip with a hot pace to run at.

Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G1 Longines Kentucky Oaks

*Gullet Shot of the Day #14 Millefeuille (20/1) – This girl will be the Conductor’s key in the Kentucky Oaks, especially if this morning line is remotely accurate. She ran extremely well last time in the Gulfstream Oaks where she was wide into the 1st turn. After that she had an uncomfortable trip where she had to switch gears a few times. In a race without much pace, she has the speed to get in a good position from the outside post.  Not to mention she’s working bullets entering the race. With a clean trip, she has every chance, especially to hit the board at hopefully a nice number.

kentucky oaks

The Conductor’s Kentucky Oaks Day Plays at Churchill Downs

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Bellafina, a thoroughbred racehorse, being trained on a racetrack with a jockey in riding gear.

Its going to be a long two day grind at the office. Kentucky Oaks time, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 50000s

#5 Tom’s Last General (9/2) – He just missed last start setting a hot pace vs similar competition. He should get a favorable trip without much other speed in here.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 80000n3x

#6 Magical (6/1) – This filly is making her first start of the year, but the layoff is no concern with top connections.  She has an earl pace edge over this field, which is very dangerous in any sprint.

Race 3: 7 Furlongs. F.OC 75000n1x

*Never a Doubt Early Pick 5 Lock of the Day #3 Lady Kate (5/2) – Cutting back 2nd off the layoff after pressing a hot pace vs Grade 1 company, she’s going to bury them.

Kentucky Oaks

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 100k

#4 Heirloom Kitten (12/1) – The Conductor doesn’t particularly like the runners with experience in here and he likes this colt’s work tab.

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. F.G2 Eight Belles Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Bizwhacks (20/1) – She ran sneaky good in the Ashland last start and is steadily progressing. The Conductor loves the cutback and will key her in the trifecta.

Kentucky Oaks

Races 6-11: The Conductor’s Kentucky Oaks Day Pick 6 Preview

Race 12: 1 1/16 Mile.F.OC 75000n1x

#11 Free Cover (5/1) – Going two sprints to a route in her 3rd start off the layoff, the Conductor thinks she is the most talented filly in the field.

Race 13: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 100k

#4 Hallawallah (5/1) – Asmussen always seems to debut a good one on these big days at Churchill

The Conductor’s Kentucky Oaks Day Pick 6 Preview

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A racehorse with a jockey wearing red and white silks crossing the finish line at the Breeders' Cup event.

Full card plays will be up Friday, but the Conductor is generously giving us his contenders in the feature races on the Kentucky Oaks card. Nothing like hitting the pick 4,5 and 6 Friday so we can unload on Saturday. Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F. G3 Edgewood Stakes

#1 Newspaperofrecord (3/5) – This super filly is making her 1st start of the year, but she can’t possibly lose.  The ground will have some cut in it as well, which she’s proven to relish.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. G2 Alysheba Stakes

#1 McKinzie (8/5) and #8 Seeking the Soul (5/2) look to be the only two contenders to the Conductor.

*UPDATE – Upon Further Review the Conductor will also use #6 Instilled Regard (8/1) as a backup.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. G1 La Troienne Stakes

#1 She’s a Julie (7/2), #2 Blue Prize (3/1) and #9 Secret Spice (3/1) are all logical contenders that have big chances, but the Conductor has a price he will key in the exacta and trifecta and use in the horizontal wagers.

#7 Teresa Z (15/1) – This mare is a closer and looks to get a nice setup with lots of speed signed on in this one.  She impressed the Conductor last fall and looks primed to run a top effort 2nd off the layoff.  She’s done her best running on a wet surface as well and the forecast calls for rain like every derby weekend.

kentucky oaks

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. OC 62500n2x

This is the most open race in the sequence and the Conductor will likely spread wide and deep unless number #15 Soul Streit (2/1) gets into the field. He’ll be tough to beat.  #7 Solid Wager (5/2) is a solid favorite but can be beaten.

#12 Fuel the Burn (20/1) – The Conductor’s favorite bomb in the race is this horse exiting a solid win at Keeneland. Winner of 3 of his last 4, he’s become a new animal on the dirt. His figures fit against this group and the Conductor sees a peak performance coming 2nd off the layoff.

Race 10: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) G2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint

#6 World of Trouble (1/1) – He’s the best turf sprinter in the country period.  The Conductor will likely single but may use a saver with #8 Undrafted (8/1) and #9 Will Call (10/1). He can see a scenario where #1 Bound for Nowhere (3/1) makes World of Trouble go too quick on the lead and give the two best closers a shot down the lane.

Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. F. G1 Longines Kentucky Oaks

In the feature race of the day, the Conductor is going to TOSS the favorite Bellafina (2/1). She’s been beating up on nobodies in California and this looks like a complete pace meltdown on paper.  The Conductor will look for contenders who can pass horses down the lane.

He’ll use #1 Out for a Spin (15/1), #3 Lady Apple (20/1), #10 Champagne Anyone (6/1), #11 Jeltrin (15/1), #14 Restless Rider (6/1) and #15 Dunbar Road (5/1) and #16 Point of Honor (20/1) if there are scratches and they draw in.

UPDATE: The Conductor will also be using #2 Chocolate Kisses (20/1) 

kentucky oaks

Toooooooooooooooooossssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss!!!!!!!