#6 Our Super Nova (6/1) – This filly has an early pace edge in a race filled with closers. The Conductor wants her ridden aggressively and going right to the front. She’ll be tough to pass down the lane.
Race 7: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 70k
#2 The Angry Man (12/1) – The Conductor likes this gelding’s work tab and attitude.
Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G2 Demoiselle Stakes
#6 Critical Value (8/1) – Her maiden breaker at Saratoga came back very live and she dominated the competition in her last start. With a natural step forward, she’ll be tough.
Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. G3 Remsen Stakes
*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Shotski (15/1) – He ran well stretching out for the first time last out and will get more distance today. The Conductor loves this colt’s progression with each race this race smells like chaos. The Conductor will key him in the trifecta.
Race 10: 1 Mile. G1 Cigar Mile Handicap
#6 Spun to Run (5/2) – He’s posting bullet works entering today and has turned into a different animal this fall. He can take down #5 Maximum Security (3/2).
The news broke last night that Maximum Security is out of the Pennsylvania Derby due to a colon issue. Since this ruined the Conductor’s betting strategy in the big race on Saturday, he has to make a few adjustments to his original plans: The Conductor’s Pennsylvania Derby Preview
With now only a six horse field, the Conductor can’t use both Mr. Money and Improbable on top and get any value. After watching the tape a few more times, he’s going to single Improbable. It takes a very talented horse to exert that much wasted energy early in a race and still win easily like he did last time. This will be the race where Improbable shows what he’s capable of and Baffert will be laughing all the way to the bank.
The Pennsylvania Derby has drawn for Saturday and it is a hell of a race despite only 7 contenders. This is the best 3-year old race since the Derby and the winner will likely be the leader of the crop moving forward. Let’s see if the Conductor can help us passengers solve this puzzle.
#1 Math Wizard (8/1) – This colt is the only closer in the field and looks to get a nice trip with a hot pace in front of him. He will likely go off at a higher price and the Conductor can see him clunking up to get into the trifecta. He’s not good enough to win, but the Conductor thinks he’ll offer value underneath.
#2 Improbable (3/1) – This colt is very talented and was very impressive in his return to the races last time. His immaturity is still a concern, as he fought Van Dyke the entire first half of the Shared Belief Stakes. However, he still cut out hot fractions and won with ease. The Conductor doesn’t think we’ve seen the best of this boy yet and he’ll be one of the two runners he uses on top in this one.
#3 Shanghai Superfly (30/1) – The only runner with no business being in the race. Draw a line thru him and treat him as a scratch.
#4 War of Will (5/1) – The Conductor is against the Preakness winner in here and thinks he’s going in the wrong direction. To his credit he’s shown up in every big race, but his last two efforts have been disappointing. The Conductor thinks his campaign has taken his best out of him and you won’t find him anywhere on the Conductor’s tickets.
#5 Spun to Run (8/1) – This Colt is steadily progressing, and the Conductor really liked his win last time in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx. He split horses nicely and the race came back very fast on paper. It’s a very tough ask for him to beat this field, but the Conductor will use him underneath in the exacta and tri.
#6 Mr. Money (4/1) – The Conductor has been a fan of this colt since he won him a nice lump of gold in the Pat Day Mile at 7/1 on Derby Day. Since then, he’s done nothing but blow away his competition. He’s stepping up against the big boys today, but the Conductor thinks he can answer the bell. His last work at Churchill could not have looked better. He’s the other contender the Conductor will use on top.
#7 Maximum Security (9/5) – The Conductor’s nemesis Maximum Security. How many times will he try to beat this boy? Well, at least one more time. The Conductor thinks he’ll go off at an even shorter price and he will get a lot of pace pressure in here. The Conductor will use him in 2nd and 3rd because he’s not a complete idiot, but he’ll make him look him in the eye and beat him one more round. Let’s go big boy, the Conductor didn’t here no bell.
The heat has canceled racing at Saratoga and the Conductor should probably never play there again anyway. What a loser. Haskell day at Monmouth is always a great racing day anyway. Will Maximum Security strut his stuff? The Conductor sees him getting taken down again. Let’s drink some ice cold stew and make some money. Let’s Ride.
Race 1: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 30000n2x
#8 Sweet Yare N Dira (9/2) – 3rd off the layoff, he loves this turf course and looks poised to run his A race today.
Race 2: 1m70yds. OC 16000n2x
#7 Three to Thirteen (3/1) – He’s been running well against much tougher competition lately.
Race 3: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 12500
#11 The Accuser (6/1) – 3rd off the layoff for strong connections, he looks perfectly spotted here.
Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 47k
#6 Confess (9/5) – The word is out that this colt can run.
Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) G3 Oceanport Stakes
#4 Projected (2/1) – Chad Brown.
Race 6: 5 furlongs. F.OC 16000n2x
#3 Agora (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff, a natural step forward today puts her right in the mix.
Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) OC 16000n1x
*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 National Honor (6/1) – This gelding is much improved this year and will be flying late. The Lopez/Cibelli jockey/trainer combo has been hot the last few weeks.
Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G3 Molly Pitcher Stakes
#3 Midnight Bisou (3/5) – She lays over the field.
Race 9: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Wolf Hill Stakes 75k
#1 Regal Image (8/1) – He draws the rail, but has the best early pace figures in the field. He can scoot away on the front end.
Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. G3 Monmouth Cup Stakes
*Never a Doubt Ice Cold Stew in the Unbearable Heat Lock of the Day #3 Coal Front (8/5) – He set a scorching pace in the loaded Met Mile last start. This class lays over this field in the Conductor’s eyes.
#5 Mucho Gusto (2/1) – Shipping in for Bob Baffert, the Conductor is going to play against #7 Maximum Security (8/5). They are going to fly up front in this running of the Haskel. The Conductor sees this colt getting a perfect setup and out finishing the other contenders down the stretch.
Race 13: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 16000n2x
#5 Out of Trouble (4/1) – She ran a decent 3rd off a long layoff last time. She’ll take a step forward today with more fitness.
Race 14: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 47.5k
#5 Goddess of Cash (3/1) – 1st timer for Servis, she’s working well and Paco hops aboard. Her sire hits at 16% with debut runners and her dam is 5/5 producing winners.