Tag: maximum security

Breeders’ Cup Classic Picks and Analysis

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A brown racehorse with a jockey in white and blue attire racing on a track during a competition.

Breeders’ Cup Classic time. Skip.

Saturday, November 7 – Race 12: 1 ¼ G1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic

#1 Tacitus (20/1) – The granddaddy of them all and a more competitive Classic than we’ve seen in recent years. There are many with a chance in here and this colt isn’t one of them. However, he is a consistent runner and they’ll likely go back to taking him off the pace today. Everyone hates this horse because he’s cost them money, but if he’s really that price the Conductor will use him in 3rd. He can see a scenario where he grinds away while the others try to win the race and picks up the bronze at a big number.

#2 Tiz the Law (3/1)

This colt has the most upside in the field. He got turned away in the derby, but he’s had some time to rest and can still improve. If you watch his Travers again, he never even takes it out of 2nd gear. That being said, there are some serious older racehorses in here and the Conductor will only use him as a backup.

#3 By My Standards (10/1) – This colt always runs his race, he’s just not as good as Improbable and Tom’s d’Etat. The Conductor can’t see a scenario where he jumps up to beat them here.

#4 Tom’s d’Etat (6/1) – Every passenger and their mother are picking this horse, so he may be in the 9/2 range. The Conductor understands the hype as the stumble cost him the race last time.  He also ran a huge late pace figure. However, a stumble as a 7-year-old is a sign of going off form, which is likely why connections have trained him up to this race. He’s going to have to run his A+ race to win in here and the Conductor thinks that’s a tough ask.

#5 Title Ready (30/1) – He’ll drop to the back and try to make one run to pick up 3rd, but he’s not getting ready for any title.

#6 Higher Power (20/1) – He’ll need god to come down to his stall tonight for him to be competitive.

#7 Global Campaign (20/1) – This colt is improving this year, but that’s with him being on the early lead. He has a 0% chance of getting the lead in this race.

*#8 Improbable (5/2)

The Conductor thinks we’re going to get 3/1 in here as he’s not getting the respect he deserves. He’s turned into a real racehorse this year.  Most importantly, the Ductor sees him getting a nice trip in this Breeders’ Cup Classic. Authentic and Maximum Security will get sent from his outside and he’ll be able to get the outside stalking trip that he loves. He’ll be in the clear and ready to pounce whenever he pleases. He’s the one to beat.

breeders' cup classic

#9 Authentic (6/1) – This colt still has the Conductor’s brain in a pretzel. There really isn’t a ton of other speed in here other than Maximum Security and they’re both trained by Baffert. They won’t duel which will help his chances, but this feels like a bounce spot for him and he’ll have to run even better taking on older horses for the first time. The Conductor is going to watch how Swiss Skydiver fairs in the Distaff before he makes his final judgement. For now, he’s leaning against.

#10 Maximum Security (7/2) – The Conductor is going to toss him from the exacta. Improbable dusted him last time and the Conductor can’t see him turning the tables. He’ll be heavily bet because of his fame, but he’s going in the wrong direction.

Picks: 8 

The Conductor’s Pennsylvania Derby Preview

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A racehorse with a jockey in vibrant attire galloping on a dirt track during a horse race, showcasing speed and athleticism.

The Pennsylvania Derby has drawn for Saturday and it is a hell of a race despite only 7 contenders. This is the best 3-year old race since the Derby and the winner will likely be the leader of the crop moving forward. Let’s see if the Conductor can help us passengers solve this puzzle.

#1 Math Wizard (8/1) – This colt is the only closer in the field and looks to get a nice trip with a hot pace in front of him. He will likely go off at a higher price and the Conductor can see him clunking up to get into the trifecta. He’s not good enough to win, but the Conductor thinks he’ll offer value underneath.

#2 Improbable (3/1) – This colt is very talented and was very impressive in his return to the races last time. His immaturity is still a concern, as he fought Van Dyke the entire first half of the Shared Belief Stakes. However, he still cut out hot fractions and won with ease. The Conductor doesn’t think we’ve seen the best of this boy yet and he’ll be one of the two runners he uses on top in this one.

#3 Shanghai Superfly (30/1) – The only runner with no business being in the race. Draw a line thru him and treat him as a scratch.

#4 War of Will (5/1)

The Conductor is against the Preakness winner in here and thinks he’s going in the wrong direction. To his credit he’s shown up in every big race, but his last two efforts have been disappointing. The Conductor thinks his campaign has taken his best out of him and you won’t find him anywhere on the Conductor’s tickets.

Pennsylvania Derby

#5 Spun to Run (8/1) – This Colt is steadily progressing, and the Conductor really liked his win last time in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx. He split horses nicely and the race came back very fast on paper.  It’s a very tough ask for him to beat this field, but the Conductor will use him underneath in the exacta and tri.

#6 Mr. Money (4/1) – The Conductor has been a fan of this colt since he won him a nice lump of gold in the Pat Day Mile at 7/1 on Derby Day. Since then, he’s done nothing but blow away his competition. He’s stepping up against the big boys today, but the Conductor thinks he can answer the bell. His last work at Churchill could not have looked better. He’s the other contender the Conductor will use on top.

#7 Maximum Security (9/5) – The Conductor’s nemesis Maximum Security. How many times will he try to beat this boy? Well, at least one more time in the Pennsylvania Derby. The Conductor thinks he’ll go off at an even shorter price and he will get a lot of pace pressure in here. The Conductor will use him in 2nd and 3rd because he’s not a complete idiot, but he’ll make him look him in the eye and beat him one more round. Let’s go big boy, the Conductor didn’t here no bell.

The Conductor’s Haskell Day Plays at Monmouth Park

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Jockey riding a brown thoroughbred horse during a training session on a racetrack.

The heat has canceled racing at Saratoga and the Conductor should probably never play there again anyway. What a loser. Haskell day at Monmouth is always a great racing day anyway. Will Maximum Security strut his stuff? The Conductor sees him getting taken down again. Let’s drink some ice cold stew and make some money. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 30000n2x

#8 Sweet Yare N Dira (9/2) – 3rd off the layoff, he loves this turf course and looks poised to run his A race today.

Race 2: 1m70yds. OC 16000n2x

#7 Three to Thirteen (3/1) – He’s been running well against much tougher competition lately.

Race 3: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 12500

#11 The Accuser (6/1) – 3rd off the layoff for strong connections, he looks perfectly spotted here.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 47k

#6 Confess (9/5) – The word is out that this colt can run.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) G3 Oceanport Stakes

#4 Projected (2/1) – Chad Brown.

Race 6: 5 furlongs. F.OC 16000n2x

#3 Agora (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff, a natural step forward today puts her right in the mix.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) OC 16000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 National Honor (6/1) – This gelding is much improved this year and will be flying late. The Lopez/Cibelli jockey/trainer combo has been hot the last few weeks.

haskell

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G3 Molly Pitcher Stakes

#3 Midnight Bisou (3/5) – She lays over the field.

Race 9: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Wolf Hill Stakes 75k

#1 Regal Image (8/1) – He draws the rail, but has the best early pace figures in the field.  He can scoot away on the front end.

Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. G3 Monmouth Cup Stakes

*Never a Doubt Ice Cold Stew in the Unbearable Heat Lock of the Day #3 Coal Front (8/5) – He set a scorching pace in the loaded Met Mile last start.  This class lays over this field in the Conductor’s eyes.

haskell

Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.G3 WinStar Matchmaker Stakes

#3 Valedictorian  (5/2) – She’s a very consistent mare and very classy. She’ll likely be a better price than she should be with Chad Brown likely to take all the money

Race 12: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 TVG.com Haskell Invitational Stakes

#5 Mucho Gusto (2/1) – Shipping in for Bob Baffert, the Conductor is going to play against #7 Maximum Security (8/5). They are going to fly up front in this running of the Haskel. The Conductor sees this colt getting a perfect setup and out finishing the other contenders down the stretch.

Race 13: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 16000n2x

#5 Out of Trouble (4/1) – She ran a decent 3rd off a long layoff last time. She’ll take a step forward today with more fitness.

Race 14: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 47.5k

#5 Goddess of Cash (3/1) – 1st timer for Servis, she’s working well and Paco hops aboard. Her sire hits at 16% with debut runners and her dam is 5/5 producing winners. Servis will want to show off on Haskell Day.