Tag: omaha beach

He’s Baaaaaaaaccccckkkkkkkk: Pegasus World Cup Day Plays

on By
Horses and jockeys racing at the Pegasus World Cup Invitational event with a logo overlay.

He’s Baaaaaaaaaccccccccckkkkkkkkkkk. The Conductor apologizes for his recent absence, but not really. The train went off the rails and needed some maintenance, that’s just part of ductor life. Nothing a few weeks back at the station can’t fix. You passengers didn’t think he’d miss the Pegasus World Cup did you? Silly passengers, after all this time you still can’t figure out the Conductor. Great card today at Gulfstream, big fields and the Conductor is salivating. Time to take a nice slow ride THROTTLE IT! Let’s Ride.

pegasus world cup

Race 7: 1 Mile. G3 Fred W. Hooper Stakes

This is a very intriguing race to start the Pick 6 sequence. We’ll have to see if the dirt is a speed highway, but this looks like a meltdown race with a blistering pace on paper. The Conductor will turn to the closers.

#5 Phat Man (10/1) – Exiting a good 2nd last start, splitting War Story and Bode Express (who we’ll talk about later), he looks to get a great trip with Irad aboard. The Conductor will key him in the exacta as well.

#7 Tale of Silence (10/1) – He’s had time off after running a dud last start. His race two back closing into a slow pace and finishing 1 ¾ lengths behind Maximum Security makes him a must use.

Other contenders #8 Free Enterprise (4/1), #10 Gray Magician (6/1), and the Conductor can see #9 Olympic Village (20/1) hitting the board underneath.

Race 8: 1½ Mile. (Turf) F.G3 La Prevoyante Stakes

#6 Lady Paname (3/1) – She’s clearly the one to beat from the Conductor’s perspective and will single her on most tickets. The long layoff doesn’t concern him with Chad.

#3 Kelsey’s Cross (8/1) – This filly is making her first start as a four-year-old and has sneaky back class. She’s run behind Cambier Parc and Concrete Rose and this field is much weaker than what she’s used to.

#4 Mean Mary (8/1) – She’s the controlling speed and the Conductor likes her steady progression.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. F.G2 Inside Information Stakes

Another race with what looks like a hot pace, the Conductor sees only 3.

#7 Spiced Perfection (8/5) – The heavy favorite, she’d clearly the class of the field and can dictate her own trip.

#6 Nonna Madeline (8/1) – She didn’t live up to the hype last year but took care of business in her comeback race. The Conductor thinks she has the potential to take a big step forward.

#11 Pink Sands (8/1) – This mare is going to get a good setup like she did in her last victory and loves Gulfstream.

Race 10: 1½ Mile. (Turf) G3 W. L. McKnight Stakes

Nothing creative, the logical contenders, no strong opinion: #1 Red Night (3/1), #7 Cross Border (9/2), #8 Pumpkin Rumble (8/1), #12 American Tattoo (7/2)

Race 11: 1 3/16 Mile. (Turf) G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes

The Conductor is going to toss #12 Magic Wand (7/2) from that post. She’s classy and can win, but loves to run 2nd and will be hammered at the windows. There is a trainer named Chad Brown you may have heard of who will win this race.

#3 Without Parole (4/1) – He ran well behind Uni on Breeders Cup Day last time and the Conductor thinks he’s a cut above this field. Most of his money will go through him.

#6 Instilled Regard (10/1) – The Conductor has always been a fan of this horse and is improving on the turf.

#11 Sacred Life (12/1) – He’s a hard knocker and the Conductor will use him defensively.

Race 12: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes

This race obviously completely changed with the scratch of Omaha Beach, but the Conductor thinks its now a much better betting race.

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Seeking the Soul (30/1) – He went off form last fall but has had a long time off and is training well. His 2nd behind Seeking the Soul in last years Pegasus behind City of life would win this year’s running and he has the most back class. The Conductor has a feeling he’s going to run a big one and will key him in the exacta and trifecta.

#12 Bode Express (30/1) – He won’t be that price, but he’ll be on the lone lead and has the talent to take them all the way around if he can tick off favorable fractions. He was fractious last start and went too fast early, but his race two back and run behind Maximum Security as a 3-year-old show he has the talent.

#6 Higher Power (6/1) – He ran a very good 3rd in the BC Classic and there aren’t any Vino Rosso’s or Mckinzie’s in this field.

#10 Mucho Gusto (9/2) – The Conductor can’t toss him with his form against Maximum Security.

pegasus world cup

Glad to be back.

The Conductor’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Preview

on By
Racehorse Tamarkuz with jockey in blue silks competing in a horse race at the Breeders' Cup.

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile time, Skip.

Race 6: 1 Mile. G1 Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

#1 Giant Expectations (12/1) – The Conductor doesn’t have many expectations for this boy. He doesn’t like to win but he can run 3rd.

#2 Improbable (3/1) – This his preferred distance and he’s a win contender. However, he will be over bet like he always is, so the Conductor is leaning against him.

#3 Spun to Run (6/1) – He ran a monster figure last time exiting the Pennsylvania Derby, which is one of the reasons the Conductor likes the others who participated. The Conductor doesn’t think he’s classy enough to win, but he’s dangerous.

*#4 Mr. Money (6/1)

If the Conductor gets anything close to this price, he’ll bet him. He’s exiting the PA Derby and the Conductor thinks he’s sitting on a monster race.

Breeders' cup dirt mile

#5 Omaha Beach (8/5) – His return to the races was very impressive, but that may have been his best bullet. The Conductor isn’t as bullish on him as the public, but he is absolutely a contender.

#6 Ambassadorial (30/1) – Toss.

#7 Coal Front (6/1) – This ridgling won’t get the early lead which will really hurt his chances.

*#8 Blue Chipper (20/1) – He’s bomb that the Conductor likes. Shipping in from Korea, the Conductor likes the tape on this gelding and he’s working well on all accounts. He’s a runner that can knock the passengers out of the pools.

Breeders' cup dirt mile

#9 Diamond Oops (15/1) – His race two back at Saratoga splitting Imperial Hint and Mitole shouldn’t be ignored. Winning is a tough ask, but the Conductor will use him in the exacta and tri at a big number.

#10 Snapper Sinclair (30/1) – No thanks.

Kentucky Derby Preview

on By
Dynamic horse race featuring multiple horses and jockeys in vibrant silks, showcasing the excitement of competitive racing.

The posts were drawn yesterday for the Kentucky Derby and the Conductor is now able to chart out the race. With speed drawn to the far inside and outside and Omaha Beach right in the middle, he doesn’t see how this pace doesn’t heat up.  The Conductor still has a lot of work to do in the Saturday under-card, but he’s got the big boy locked up. Only 3 more sleeps, strap in, Let’s Ride.

*UPDATE – Omaha Beach has scratched which stinks for the Conductor. It won’t change his win contenders, but will hurt their prices.

Race 12: 1 1/4 Mile. G1 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve Grade I

#1 War of Will (20/1) – Rail draw and a major setback last race, he’s a straight toss for the Conductor.

#2 Tax (20/1) – The Conductor likes this colt a lot. He’s got the heart of the champion but the distance is a question. He’ll be used underneath early.

*#3 By My Standards (20/1) – He’ll be one of the four horses the Conductor will be using on top and trying to get alive to in all his bets. He’s steadily progressing with every start and the Conductor loved the way he kicked home in the Louisiana Derby.  He’s working well at Churchill by all accounts.

#4 Gray Magician (50/1) – He won’t be anywhere on the Conductor’s tickets.

#5 Improbable (6/1)

– An obvious contender with major talent, the Conductor is still a little undecided on him.  He was restless in the gate in the Arkansas Derby and ran a solid 2nd and is working like a monster.  He’ll be used in 2nd and 3rd and may be the 5th horse the Conductor includes on top.

*UPDATE – The Conductor is definitely using him on top.

#6 Vekoma (20/1) – Winner of the Bluegrass, he took advantage of a speed biased race track and the Conductor doesn’t like his action.  The Conductor doesn’t see him hitting the board.

#7 Maximum Security (10/1) – He romped in the Florida Derby and is a legitimate contender, but if he wins, the Conductor will lose.  He still hasn’t proven he can take early pace pressure and still finish.  He’ll only be used underneath.

*#8 Mr. Tacitus (10/1)

– He’s the Conductor’s 2nd favorite colt in here.  His Wood performance was very impressive, winning after getting slammed and checked going to the first turn.  He proved he can overcome trouble and that is a major key in a 20-horse field.  He’ll be used on top.

#9 Plus Que Parfait (30/1) – The Conductor won’t use him anywhere.

#10 Cutting Humor (30/1) – He has strong late pace figures and has an outside shot to run 3rd or 4th but no higher.

#11 Haikal (30/1) – Same analysis as #10 Cutting Humor

#12 Omaha Beach (4/1) – *SCRATCHED The Derby favorite and rightfully so.  He’s been tough as nails, turning away grade 1 winners in his last two preps.  The Conductor sees him running a solid race, but will be up in the teeth of what he sees as a hot early pace.  One of the Conductor’s horses will pass him late.

#13 Code of Honor (15/1) – He had no chance trying to close into a tepid place in the Florida Derby.  The Conductor can see him rounding out the bottom of the tri or super.

***#14 Win Win Win (15/1) – Exiting the Bluegrass Stakes he’s the Conductor’s top pick in this year’s running of the roses. He got absolutely stopped on the turn at Keeneland and still re-rallied against a speed favoring track for a game 2nd.  He’ll appreciate the added distance and will have pace to run at.  The Conductor sees him sitting mid pack and engulfing them at a big price down the stretch. Kick Home!

Kentucky Derby

#15 Master Fencer (50/1) – Toss

*#16 Mr. Game Winner (5/1)

– The 4th horse the Conductor will absolutely use in the horizontal wagers and the Baffert the Conductor like most.  He traveled wide on both turns in the Santa Anita Derby. Game Winner eeven galloped out past Roadster despite getting nailed before the wire.  He can run all day and is battle tested.

#17 Roadster (6/1) – He had a perfect trip in the Santa Anita Derby and the Conductor doesn’t see him getting another one from the 17 post.  He has talent, but the Conductor will only use him underneath.

#18 Long Range Toddy (30/1) – He ran a dud in the slop last time and it looks like there will be rain in Louisville Saturday.  He’ll drop to the back and make one run, the Conductor will only use him in 3rd and 4th.

#19 Spinoff (30/1) – The Conductor likes him, but he’ll have to expend a lot of energy early to get position going into the first turn.  He’ll be in the mix when the turn for home, but the Conductor doesn’t see him getting his picture taken.  Underneath for sure tho.

#20 Country House (20/1) – He’ll be coming from the back of the back, again no better than 3rd.

#21 Bodexpress (30/1) – He benefited from being up close to a slow pace in the Florida Derby.  From the far outside the Conductor can’t see him running better than 4th in the Kentucky Derby.

Top Pick: #14 Win Win Win (15/1)

Winning Contenders: #3 By My Standards (20/1), #5 Improbable (6/1), #8 Tacitus (10/1), #14 Win Win Win (15/1), #16 Game Winner (5/1)

The Conductor’s Kentucky Derby Stakes Under-card analysis will be up tomorrow.