Ponies, Videos

The Conductor’s Pennsylvania Derby Preview

The Pennsylvania Derby has drawn for Saturday and it is a hell of a race despite only 7 contenders. This is the best 3-year old race since the Derby and the winner will likely be the leader of the crop moving forward. Let’s see if the Conductor can help us passengers solve this puzzle.

#1 Math Wizard (8/1) – This colt is the only closer in the field and looks to get a nice trip with a hot pace in front of him. He will likely go off at a higher price and the Conductor can see him clunking up to get into the trifecta. He’s not good enough to win, but the Conductor thinks he’ll offer value underneath.

#2 Improbable (3/1) – This colt is very talented and was very impressive in his return to the races last time. His immaturity is still a concern, as he fought Van Dyke the entire first half of the Shared Belief Stakes. However, he still cut out hot fractions and won with ease. The Conductor doesn’t think we’ve seen the best of this boy yet and he’ll be one of the two runners he uses on top in this one.

#3 Shanghai Superfly (30/1) – The only runner with no business being in the race. Draw a line thru him and treat him as a scratch.

#4 War of Will (5/1) – The Conductor is against the Preakness winner in here and thinks he’s going in the wrong direction. To his credit he’s shown up in every big race, but his last two efforts have been disappointing. The Conductor thinks his campaign has taken his best out of him and you won’t find him anywhere on the Conductor’s tickets.

#5 Spun to Run (8/1) – This Colt is steadily progressing, and the Conductor really liked his win last time in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx. He split horses nicely and the race came back very fast on paper.  It’s a very tough ask for him to beat this field, but the Conductor will use him underneath in the exacta and tri.

#6 Mr. Money (4/1) – The Conductor has been a fan of this colt since he won him a nice lump of gold in the Pat Day Mile at 7/1 on Derby Day. Since then, he’s done nothing but blow away his competition. He’s stepping up against the big boys today, but the Conductor thinks he can answer the bell. His last work at Churchill could not have looked better. He’s the other contender the Conductor will use on top.

#7 Maximum Security (9/5) – The Conductor’s nemesis Maximum Security. How many times will he try to beat this boy? Well, at least one more time. The Conductor thinks he’ll go off at an even shorter price and he will get a lot of pace pressure in here. The Conductor will use him in 2nd and 3rd because he’s not a complete idiot, but he’ll make him look him in the eye and beat him one more round. Let’s go big boy, the Conductor didn’t here no bell.

 

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Ponies

Trachea Kick Tuesday: The Conductor’s Punts at Parx

Decent day at Parx yesterday. Not a lot of big prices, but the winners were coming home. Let’s keep the train rolling. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 Mile. F.Clm 7500n2L

#3 Linda Listen (7/5) – This filly needs to bounce back, but she’s still lightly raced and has run by far the best figures in the field. The Conductor wants to play against her but doesn’t like the other contenders.

Race 2: 5 Furlongs. F.MC 10000

#9 Pablo’s Dream (6/1) – Shipping in from California after a long layoff she’s facing much weaker today, she doesn’t have to do much to beat this field.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.S.Mdn 40k

#6 J J Loves Billy (5/1) – This filly ran well in her debut and with a natural step forward she’ll have every chance.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Clm 5000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Surfing USA (8/1) – This old man is dropping in class and the conditions look to hit him right between the eyes.

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Race 5: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 20000

#9 Baseline (9/2) – This group is tightly bunched on numbers and he’s exiting much tougher races. Class on the grass.

Race 6: 1m70yds. S.Clm 25000

#1 Devine Dental (2/1) – He looks to be cycling back to his top effort and that will make him tough to beat.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 50000n1x

*Never a Doubt Toga Bankroll Lock of the Day #7 Two Item Maker (5/2) – Making her 3rd career start, another step forward today and she’ll win for fun.

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Race 8: 1m70yds. Alw 12500

#2 His Royal Majesty (3/1) – 3rd off the layoff, he’s getting better with each race.

Race 9: 1 Mile. F.OC 35000n2x

#4 I’m Not Joking (6/1) – He’s very consistent and loves to win. The Conductor will make the favorites prove it to him.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. Clm 25000n3L

#1 Transitive (5/2) – He’s trending in the right direction and is lightly raced compared to many in this group who don’t like to win.

Ponies

Moon Shot Monday: The Conductor’s Punts at Parx

It’s officially opening week at Saratoga. The Conductor is all tingly on the inside. Let’s build our bankroll, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 Mile. F.Clm 7500n4L

#4 Vested Venture (7/2) – This mare is trending in the right directions while the others are trying to bounce back.

Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs. Clm 7500

#4 Under the Graydar (6/1) – The Conductor will hammer him at that price, he’s been facing much tougher competition recently.

Race 3: 1m70yds. Alw 25000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 O’Kram (10/1) – He stepped up in class last start and improved his speed figure. The Conductor loves to see that.

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Race 4: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 20000

#8 Two Weeks Off (6/1) – Dropping back to a level that fits, this old man is very dangerous.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.Alw 41000n1x

*Never a Doubt Week Starter Lock of the Day #6 I’m the Talent (9/5) – This filly is right, she has the most potential in the field.

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Race 6: 1 Mile. F.Alw 46000n1x

#7 Style and Grace (7/2) – She’s run well vs tougher and gets a weight break today.

Race 7: 1m70yds. (Turf) S.F.Alw 41000n1x

#8 Promised Storm (4/1) – She hasn’t run well in her last two starts but has the ability to beat the favorite if she runs her good race. She loves to win races.

Race 8: 1 Mile. F.OC 50000n3x

#5 Trace of Grace (9/2) – 4th of the layoff, she’s taken a step forward in each of her starts this year.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. Clm 7500n3L

#9 Phyllis Driller (10/1) – Toss out her last start where she was eased. She returns to the races quickly and is working well. Her prior races would make her vie for favoritism here and she’ll be a nice number.

Ponies

Trachea Kick Tuesday: The Conductor’s Punts at Parx

Can’t have much worse of a start to the week than yesterday. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. Clm 125002nL

#8 Motowncharlybrown (2/1) – Facing much weaker today, he looks like a clear standout to start the card.

Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs. Clm 25000

#3 Boyd Crowder (10/1) – He has recent past performances that can beat this group, this is a wide-open race.

Race 3: 7 Furlongs. F.Clm 40000n2L

#6 Cawaja Time (9/2) – She’s 1/1 at Parx and is very consistent.

Race 4: 5 ½ Furlongs. Clm 12500

#1 Sir Rockport (9/2) – He took a step forward last time and the Conductor sees him circling back to his good form today.

Race 5: 1m70yds. (Turf) F.Alw 25000

#2 Pastiche (12/1) – This mare continues to steadily progress. The Conductor will take a swing in an open field.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. F.Alw 12500

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Celesse (12/1) – This filly has been facing much tougher in her last two starts. The class relief makes her dangerous.

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Race 7: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.Alw 46000n1x

*Never a Doubt Vacation Starter Lock of the Day #8 Not Sure (7/5) – 2nd off the layoff, the Conductor is positive.

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Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) G3 James Penny Memorial Stakes 200k

#6 Jehozacat (5/1) – If there is a filly that can beat Chad Brown, its this girl. Her figures fit and she’ll be a much better price.

Race 9: 1 Mile. F.Clm 5000

#7 Seeking Shamrocks (5/1) – She’s 2/2 and has lots of upside. What’s no to like?

Ponies, Videos

Moon Shot Monday: The Conductor’s Punts at Parx

That sucked. Off to Parx we go to start the week of the 4th. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs. Clm 5000

#8 No More Strippers (10/1) – This old man is still trying and is consistent. He’s dropping in class and his figures give him every chance at this level. The Conductor will pay for one last dance.

Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.Clm 16000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Autobahn Express (15/1) – She had a troubled trip last time and is facing weaker today. She has past performances that can beat this field.

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Race 3: 1 ½ Miles (Turf) Alw 25000

#3 Show Court (4/1) – Hurdles huh? The Conductor will go with this Irish invader.

Race 4: 1m70ys. MC 10000

#6 Daybreaker (7/2) – Lightly raced, he took a step forward last time and with natural progression again today he’ll be tough to beat.

Race 5: 1 ½ Miles (Turf) Alw 25000

#12 No Wunder (8/1) – When they’re running long on the grass and jumping over things, the Conductor rolls with the Euro’s.

Race 6: 1m70yds. Clm 7500

#3 Rings of Jupiter (5/2) – He found is form last start and gets a weight break today.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. Clm 12500

#8 Yellow Wolf (6/1) – This group is tightly bunched, and the Conductor likes his chances taking a significant class drop.

Race 8: 1m70yds (Turf) F.Alw 25000

*Never a Doubt Two Day Work Week Starter Lock of the Day #4 Miss Jen (3/1) – The Conductor see this filly as a clear standout.

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Race 9: 1 Mile. OC 50000

#3 Nanoosh (2/1) – This colt hasn’t seen this soft of competition for top connections.

Race 10: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.Clm 5000

#7 Annesa (20/1) – She took a step forward last time and has recent races that would give her a chance at a big number.

Ponies

Trachea Kick Tuesday: The Conductor’s Punts at Parx

Great start to the week for the Conductor yesterday. 7/1, two 3/1 and 6/5 winners including his 3/1 lock of the day made all of us passengers happy.  The train will stay another day in Philly, time to press. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.MC 10000

#3 Dearest Ella (5/1) – She’s dropping to her lowest career level, she’s shown speed vs tougher and will be a decent price with a low % barn.

Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.Clm 7500n1y

#1 Big Red Seven (6/5) – 1st off the claim and plunging in class for top connections, she looks tough to beat.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. Clm 7500n4L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Free for Nothing (10/1) – 2nd vs tougher last start going a mile, if the Conductor gets half that price on the cutback he’ll hammer him.

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Race 4: 6 Furlongs. S.MC 10000

#3 Lawyer Roy (2/1) – The Conductor has seen slower groups of horses, he just cant remember when. 3rd off the layoff he must win.

Race 5: 4 ½ Furlongs. Mdn 45k

#3 Commissioner G (6/1) – 145k at auction, he’s working well and his sire wins at a 20% clip with 1st time starters.

Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.Clm 5000n1y

*Never a Doubt Taco Tuesday Lock #1 My Candy Forest (6/5) – Her early pace figures giver her a serious edge over this field.

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Race 7: 6 Furlongs. Clm 8000

#8 Draxhall Woods (8/1) – They are going to fly up front in this race and the Conductor sees this old man getting a perfect stalking trip and then pouncing.

Race 8: 1m70yds. S.OC 35000n2x

#2 D T Goodie (8/1) – This gelding is very consistent and will be a bigger price than the favorites even though he has as good a chance as any.

Race 9: 1 Mile. F.Alw 12500

#7 I’m Not Joking (6/1) – Trending in the right direction, this girl is very serious.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. MC 10000

#8 Dramatized (10/1) – 2nd at this level last start, he’s lightly raced and can take another step forward today.

Ponies

Moon Shot Monday: The Conductor’s Punts at Parx

Not a great weekend for the Conductor at the windows. He had a few good opinions but couldn’t string anything together.  The full 5-day work week lying ahead may kill him, but next week is the 4th of July so there is light at the end of the tunnel.  The best medicine is stew and Parx on a Monday, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 4 ½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 45k

#1 Colby (5/2) – Servis/Pennington and she’s posting bullet works. Simple start.

Race 2: 7 Furlongs. Clm 25000

#3 Sidereal (7/2) – He’s the most consistent of the bunch, the Conductor has faith in him.

Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs. S.Mdn 47k

#7 Chubble Gum (5/1) – This colt’s sire is producing winners at a nice clip as of late.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Clm 7500n3L

#5 Self Start (10/1) – He’s coming in off a layoff, but his work tab looks good for a high% barn. He will be facing the weakest competition of his career today.

Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.MC 10000

#5 Maid of Iron (4/1) – She has an early pace advantage over this group and that Is extra dangerous against low level claimers.

Race 6: 1 Mile. Clm 7500n4L

#6 Sparty (6/1) – Dropping in class and stretching back out to a route, he’ll be in a good position early and has the best figures in the field at this distance.

Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs. Mdn 45k

*Never a Doubt Work Week Starter Lock of the Day #8 Glory Song (7/2) – The Conductor will ignore his dull effort last start. That was on the Preakness undercard and the track was inside speed biased.  His prior two efforts would make him an easy winner today.

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Race 8: 7 Furlongs. F.Alw 46000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Don’t Fight It (15/1) – The Conductor liked her maiden breaker last start and Tampa shippers have run well at big odds for him this year. The Conductor will key him in the trifecta.

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Race 9: 1 Mile. Clm 10000

#3 Noble Kent (7/2) – This old man still like to race and fight you til the bitter end.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 7500n3L

#8 Glorious Mystery (9/2) – The drop in class was the difference for her last time. A repeat effort today and she’ll be tough to beat.

Ponies

Trachea Kick Tuesday: The Conductor’s Punts at Parx

Finally, a big Monday at Parx to start the week. Multiple winners at nice prices culminating in a 32/1 bomb in the finale. Will the Conductor take credit for that pick in a race where he said he didn’t have a clue? Absolutely. Let’s keep the train moving, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Clm 20000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Bourbon Honey (12/1) – This race will come off the turf with the rain coming. This girl is in good form and does her best running on an off track.

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Race 2: 1 1/16. Clm 7500n2L

#6 Treasury Stock (9/5) – To say this group stinks would be an understatement. He has to beat this field.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. Clm 20000

#1 To The Flag (9/5) – This old lady still has gas left in the tank.

Race 4: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) MC 30000

#1 Flat Out Flashy (12/1) – She’ll be a big price and has the best race on a sloppy track in the field.

Race 5: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 30000n2L

#1 Mutaraabit (5/2) – His dirt form towers over this group.

Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs. Clm 5000

#1 Butch Cassidy (30/1) – He’s trending in the right direction and at that price the Conductor will key him in the exacta and trifecta.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. Alw 25000s

*Never a Doubt Taco Tuesday Lock of the Day #1 Ark in the Dark (3/2) – The Conductor sees him as a cinch.

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Race 8: 6 Furlongs. Alw 46000n1x

#2 Pnutbutter Special (15/1) – Lightly raced, he’s been facing tougher competition and has the potential to take a big leap forward today.

Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs. MC 20000

#3 Page Down (3/1) – He’s working well for top connections and his dam has produced 3 winners from 6 starters.

Ponies

Moon Shot Monday: The Conductor’s Plays at Parx

The Conductor is back to playing Parx on Mondays and Tuesdays…Can’t be worse than last week. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 Mile. F.Clm 7500n2L

#1 Dereya (9/2) – She’s steadily progressing and ran a good 2nd closing into a slow pace at this level last time. This jockey/trainer combo have been hot recently.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. Mile. Clm 16000n2L

#2 No Hitter (5/1) – 2 walks, 1 error, 12k’s, 27 outs.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.S. Mdn 40k

#4 Secretive (6/1) – She didn’t break well in her debut and still ran an ok 3rd. The Conductor sees her taking a big step forward today for strong connections.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Clm 5000n2y

*Never a Doubt Workweek Starter Lock of the Day #8 No Hiding Place (5/2) – This old man is very consistent and has been running the best figures in the field vs tougher competition.

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Race 5: 6 Furlongs. Clm 12500n4L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Sparty (15/1) – He returned to form last start, pressing a hot pace and holding onto 3rd going a mile. He has past performances to beat this group and will appreciate the cutback in distance.

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Race 6: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Clm 30000n2L

#2 Diamond N Simon (20/1) – Plunging in class, the Conductor will play her if this race stays on the turf. Her lone turf race at Belmont makes her competitive in a field without any turf form.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. F.OC 50000n1x

#3 Malacchio (9/2) – Dropping out of stakes company 2nd off the layoff, she is working well and should get a perfect stalking trip behind a quick pace.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. Alw 46000n1x

#8 Printer (8/1) – He’s a hard knocker who loves to win and loves the Parx surface. This jockey/trainer combo is 4 for their last 10 with a +$5.06 ROI as well.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 25000s

#6 Tanda’s Joy (7/2) – She’s the only proven turf router in the field.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 12500n2L

#6 Victoria E (20/1) – The Conductor doesn’t have a clue in this race.

Ponies

Trachea Kick Tuesday: The Conductor’s Plays at Parx

How the hell is it only Tuesday? The Conductor doesn’t want to play 11 races at Parx, but he has no choice. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 15000

#3 Backcat (9/5) – Lightly raced, she has the most potential in  the field.

Race 2: 1m70yds. Clm 16000n2L

#4 Talking Point (4/1) – He’s the only horse in the field that is improving, and his barn has been hot lately.

Race 3: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 45k

#8 Cousin Pete (6/1) – 2nd off the layoff and trying turf for the 1st time, he took money in his debut at Saratoga. He has upside.

Race 4: 1 ¼ Mile. 7500n1y

#1 Charming Indy (3/1) – He’s the only one in the field proven at the distance and will get a favorable trip on the lead.

Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs. MC 20000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Risque’s Warrior (20/1) – This colt caught a sloppy track last time but has shown early speed vs miles tougher. On the class plunge, the Conductor has seen crazier bombs win.

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Race 6: 6 Furlongs. Clm 5000n1y

#1 Return of a Giant (7/1) – He returned to form last start and when these old geldings do so, they usually rattle off a few good efforts in a row.

Race 7: 1m70yds. F.Alw Alw 25000

#3 Setubal (2/1) – She’s consistent and has been facing the strongest competition.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 25000s

#5 Bowspirit (12/1) – 2nd off the layoff, his turf for gives him every chance.

Race 9: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 35000n2x

Never a Doubt Taco Tuesday Lock of the Day #3 Richie’s Sister (8/5) – This girl can scoot.

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Race 10: 6 Furlongs. OC 35000n2x

#5 Chasing My Halo (15/1) – He’s stepping up in class but is in good form and has beaten tougher than this before.

Race 11: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 7500n4L

#3 Dialin (1/1) – Chalk