Tag: pennsylvania derby 2019

Esophagus Slice Saturday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

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Horses and jockeys at the starting gate for the Belmont Stakes race at Belmont Park.

It was a positive Friday at Belmont for the Conductor. His best opinion was #2 Cleon Jones winning the 3rd race at 6/1. The train is moving in the right direction going into Saturday. Let’s get this big boy up to full speed. Let’s Ride.

Pennsylvania Derby Play: Maximum Security Scratched From the Pennsylvania Derby

Race 1: 6½ Furlongs. Clm 20000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Gorgeous Charli (12/1) – This old man returned to form last time, closing into a moderate pace and winning. He has past figures that give him every chance and he’ll be a nice price to key in the verticals.

belmont

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 40000

#2 Fusi (4/5) – Chalk

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. Alw 77000n1x

#1 Gio d’Oro (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff, this gelding can get brave and carry his speed a long way when he’s on the early lead. He should be all by himself up front in this one.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 75k

#4 Eagerly (7/5) – He ran big in his debut closing into a slow pace. He’ll be tough to beat with a race under his belt.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. Clm 16000n2L

#1 Elios Milos (4/1) – 1st off the claim, this colt showed real ability early in his career. He had no pace to close into last time on a dead rail. The Conductor thinks his price will float up as well.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 75k

#2 Aasr (3/1) – The Conductor likes his works for Chad and the inside has been very good at Belmont so far.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 75k

#6 Balon Rose (5/2), #8 Shelter Island (9/2) – The Conductor will use the two Chads and carry on.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) G3 Noble Damsel Stakes

#1 Bellavais (7/2) – The Conductor thinks Pletcher can beat Chad in here. Her race two back in the G1 Just A Game will give her every chance.

Race 9: 1 Mile. Alw 50000s

#6 Quick Entry (5/1) – 1st off the claim and stretching out for the 1st time, Servis is 40% with a +$1.17 ROI with 1st time routers this year.

Race 10: 1 Mile. G2 Kelso

#1 Monongahela (6/1) – He chased Mitole in the Whitney last start and the distance was too far for him. Shortening back to mile and facing weaker, the Conductor likes him a lot.

#6 Plainsman (4/1) – Making his 2nd start of the year today at Belmont, he ran a huge late pace figure in his return to the races last time. The Conductor thinks he’s sitting on a big one.

Race 11: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.S.Alw 66000n1x

*Underneath Uppercut #1 Barrel of Destiny (10/1) – The low % trainer will keep her price high, but she fits right in with this group. She doesn’t always get up in time to win, so the Conductor will key her in the exacta and trifecta.

belmont

The Conductor’s Pennsylvania Derby Preview

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A racehorse with a jockey in vibrant attire galloping on a dirt track during a horse race, showcasing speed and athleticism.

The Pennsylvania Derby has drawn for Saturday and it is a hell of a race despite only 7 contenders. This is the best 3-year old race since the Derby and the winner will likely be the leader of the crop moving forward. Let’s see if the Conductor can help us passengers solve this puzzle.

#1 Math Wizard (8/1) – This colt is the only closer in the field and looks to get a nice trip with a hot pace in front of him. He will likely go off at a higher price and the Conductor can see him clunking up to get into the trifecta. He’s not good enough to win, but the Conductor thinks he’ll offer value underneath.

#2 Improbable (3/1) – This colt is very talented and was very impressive in his return to the races last time. His immaturity is still a concern, as he fought Van Dyke the entire first half of the Shared Belief Stakes. However, he still cut out hot fractions and won with ease. The Conductor doesn’t think we’ve seen the best of this boy yet and he’ll be one of the two runners he uses on top in this one.

#3 Shanghai Superfly (30/1) – The only runner with no business being in the race. Draw a line thru him and treat him as a scratch.

#4 War of Will (5/1)

The Conductor is against the Preakness winner in here and thinks he’s going in the wrong direction. To his credit he’s shown up in every big race, but his last two efforts have been disappointing. The Conductor thinks his campaign has taken his best out of him and you won’t find him anywhere on the Conductor’s tickets.

Pennsylvania Derby

#5 Spun to Run (8/1) – This Colt is steadily progressing, and the Conductor really liked his win last time in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx. He split horses nicely and the race came back very fast on paper.  It’s a very tough ask for him to beat this field, but the Conductor will use him underneath in the exacta and tri.

#6 Mr. Money (4/1) – The Conductor has been a fan of this colt since he won him a nice lump of gold in the Pat Day Mile at 7/1 on Derby Day. Since then, he’s done nothing but blow away his competition. He’s stepping up against the big boys today, but the Conductor thinks he can answer the bell. His last work at Churchill could not have looked better. He’s the other contender the Conductor will use on top.

#7 Maximum Security (9/5) – The Conductor’s nemesis Maximum Security. How many times will he try to beat this boy? Well, at least one more time in the Pennsylvania Derby. The Conductor thinks he’ll go off at an even shorter price and he will get a lot of pace pressure in here. The Conductor will use him in 2nd and 3rd because he’s not a complete idiot, but he’ll make him look him in the eye and beat him one more round. Let’s go big boy, the Conductor didn’t here no bell.