Tag: tampa bay downs

Tampa Bay Derby Day Picks — Best Bets & Full Card Analysis (March 8, 2025)

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Jockey in a red helmet riding a horse during a race at Tampa Bay Derby with other horses in the background.

We have a great stakes filled card down in Tampa. Add that with the best wager rewards at Iron Bets, and you have a recipe for a hell of a Saturday. Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. G3 Michelob Ultra Challenger Stakes

#6 Skippylongstocking (7/5) – Skippy has run well vs tougher in his last few starts and finally gets class relief today. Whenever he takes on Grade 2 company or less on a fast dirt track, he gets his picture taken. He should get an ideal outside stalking trip today too.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) Columbia Stakes

#9 Dream On (4/1) – This colt was underrated last year, setting scorching paces in Grade 1 Races and never quitting. He won his comeback race nicely last time and showed the ability to rate. Now 2nd off the layoff, shortening to his best distance and getting a rider upgrade. Dream On looks primed to run his best. Irad taking the mount for Casse in a race with two Chad Brown runners is a very positive sign as well.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Florida Oaks

#6 Lush Lips (4/1) – This filly was rank, fighting Gaffalione entering the first turn last time. Despite wasting energy early, she still dominated on the front end. They take the blinkers off today to have her relax, but she still has natural speed. In a race without much pace, Lush Lips looks to get a favorable trip and will be tough to pass in the stretch.

Race 11: 1 1/16 G3 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby

#3 Hill Road (4/1) – This colt has the highest potential of any 3-year-old in the country. No that is not hyperbole. His 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall was as impressive a race as you’ll see. He ran an enormous late pace figure closing into a crawling pace and against the flow. That effort was in his first race on dirt, routing, and in the US for a low % barn. To run so well overcoming all that, Hill Road could be special. Now making his first start in the New Year for Chad Brown, the Conductor is excited to see what he is capable of.

Bet $250 or more on Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday and earn a FREE $20 wager!

Tampa Bay Downs Saturday Picks — February 8, 2025 | Derby Prep Season Best Bets

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A group of horses racing on a grassy track with jockeys in colorful attire.

It’s tough right now to open the form on a weekday and see any track offering a good product. Horse racing is in a rough state. However, weekend cards are much more enticing and winter will come to an end at some point. Derby Prep season is beginning. Let’s start stacking coal before the spring is here. Skip.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 32000n2x

#2 Seat At the Table (6/1) – The Conductor has knocks against all the favorites in this race and likes this filly at a square price. She’s 2/2 on the turf this year and won last time stepping up in class and stretching out to this distance. She ran a formidable late pace figure last time and draws well today on the inside.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 53k

#10 Calla (20/1) – One of the Chad Brown horses will probably win this race, but the Conductor likes this filly to outrun her odds. She takes a big step up in class today, which should keep her price high. Her debut on the lawn last time was very impressive. She came from the clouds with a thunderous stretch kick despite being behind a slow pace. This filly can mow and the class hike makes sense.

Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. Sam F. Davis S. Stakes

#2 Treaty of Rome (6/1) – This colt showed real guts last time trying to rundown a lone leader that set a slow pace. That race looks to set him up perfectly for this spot and he should like the added distance. The Conductor sees him getting an ideal trip sitting right behind a contested pace and getting the first jump on the closers. 4/1 or better would be a treat.

1 1/18 Mile. (Turf) Alw 53000n1x

#4 Heathguard (10/1) – This gelding ran a big race despite a poor trip off the bench last time. He made an early wide move into a quick pace and sustained his bid for 2nd. The Conductor really liked how he dug in and didn’t let the horse to his outside with momentum pass him late. With a more favorable trip today, the Conductor thinks he has a big shot.

Bet $250 at Iron Bets or more on the Tampa Bay Downs card on Saturday and earn a FREE $20 wager!

Tampa Bay Downs Wednesday Picks — January 29, 2025 | Best Bets & Analysis

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An elderly train conductor with a gray beard and a cap, operating a vintage locomotive, showcasing the essence of railway history.

The Conductor needed to leave Ohio asap. Another garbage performance at Mahoning Valley Tuesday has the passengers up in arms. He needs to get back to warm weather and turf racing, where the tape don’t lie. The real racing week starts on Wednesday at Iron Bets, everyone knows that. Skip.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 16000

#1 Float On By (3/1) – This filly set a fair pace for this level last time going longer. She was rundown late, but now cuts back 1/16th of a mile and takes the blinkers off. Trainer Arnaud Delacor is 11/30 this year, with a whopping +$1.78 ROI this year removing blinkers. The Conductor expects Float On By to run a career best effort today.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 20000

#2 God With Us (6/1) – This colt is steadily improving and ran a solid 4th last time sprinting on the dirt. Now he switches to the turf, the surface he’s bred for. His lone turf race to this point was against miles tougher in a stakes race. This is his first chance to mow vs reasonable competition. We’ll see if God is with us or against us in the 5th.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Clm 16000n2L

#5 Permed (4/1) – This filly’s price should float up a bit for a small barn. As far as the tape is concerned, she was best in her last race at this level. She was checked on the first turn and was stuck behind horses deep in the stretch. Permed showed grit, finishing with interest and galloping out in front of the pack. 4/1 or better today is fair for the Conductor.

Tampa Bay Downs Friday Picks — January 3, 2025 | Best Bets & Analysis

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Thoroughbred horse racing with jockeys in colorful silks competing on a grassy track during a lively event.

The Conductor has enjoyed Tampa Bay this winter and will post his daily key horses for the rest of the meet. They have player friendly 15% pick 5 pools and full field turf racing, which is all the Conductor asks for. Sign up today at Iron Bets Racing to get the best ADW rewards in the game.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 100000b

#6 Mohawk Trail (4/1) – This Grade 3 winner at the distance ran better than it looks like last time closing behind a slow pace. Now she stretches out to her best distance and gets some class relief. She looks primed to run a top effort today and that will put her in the winners circle. The Conductor is against the heavy favorite, #1 Ozara (6/5), running off a long layoff.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 25000

#5 Jammer Insurance (30/1) – This filly has impressed the Conductor with a strong late turn of foot in her first two starts. She’s been miles out of it behind slow paces and has finished off her races well. She adds blinkers today, which will hopefully have her closer to the pace. This is a very weak bunch and its a good race to take a shot with a bomb. Even if Jammer Insurance isn’t good enough to win, she can light up the trifecta at a big number.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 53k

#3 Iron the Money (8/1) – The two Chad Brown runners will take all the money in this race. The Conductor will play against them with this colt at a much better price. He gets a favorable inside draw in a turf route, and his work tab suggests he’s ready to roll. Clement is 15% with +$0.35 ROI with debut turf runners in the last year.