Month: October 2020

Graded Stakes Plays at Keeneland and Belmont Park

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A steam locomotive being assembled in a factory with workers present around it.

The late pick 5 paid over 30k yesterday at Keeneland, that would have been nice. The Conductor was happy to have a piece of Sugoi at 23/1 though. That salvaged his day and kept the train filled with coal. Not great cards at Keeneland or Belmont today so the Conductor will take the train out west mainly. He’ll post his Golden Hour Pick 4 at Santa Anita and Golden Gate later. Let’s Ride.

 

Belmont Park:

Race 3: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) G2 Knickerbocker Stakes

#4 En Wye Cee (2/1) – This improving Pletcher colt will only be making his 2nd career start on grass. The other contenders are nothing special in the Conductor’s opinion and there is absolutely no pace I the race. En Wye Cee should be able to dictate the terms on the front end and make them catch him down the stretch.

Keeneland

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) G2 Hill Prince

#7 Buy Land and See (4/1) – Stretching out from a sprint, he’ll have first run when they turn for home. The Conductor likes his works and he’s best going this distance. The exacta will be him and #3 Decorated Invador (1/1). Nothing more, nothing less.

Keeneland:

Race 8: 1½ Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Rood and Riddle Dowager Stakes

#2 Blame Debbie (2/1) – She’s in good form while the others are searching for it. The Conductor like that she’s already won over the Keeneland turf this meet as well.

Keeneland: Raven Run Stakes Late Pick 5

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Two jockeys racing on brown horses during a competitive horse race, showcasing speed and athleticism in the sport.

The Conductor nailed the 7th race yesterday, then there was a head scratcher in the 8th that blew up his tickets. With the questionable weather in New York, the Conductor will do battle with Keeneland again for the Raven Run Stakes. Very competitive fields and great betting opportunities. The Conductor wants the finest cuts of meat still bleeding on his table tonight, not McDonalds. Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. Alw 50000s

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Yankee Seven (10/1) – We haven’t seen this gelding since March, but he’s posting strong works for a barn that hits at 19% clip off the bench. He’s shown versatility and consistency in his young career and if he has matured during his time off, the Conductor can see him surprising the passengers.

Other Contenders: #1 Cool Bobby (2/1), #2 Jessup (5/2)

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. F.Mdn 70k

#6 Mia at Midnight (30/1) – You can make a case for all in here with many 1st time starters. The Conductor will include this bomb shipping in from Woodbine. She was green in her debut and was ridden like it was a prep. She has nice works coming into today.

Other Contenders: #2 Hippie Cowgirl (5/1), #4 Miss Dial (6/1), #10 Wicked Bisou (4/1), #11 Thinking (9/2)

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Alw 75000n3x

#7 Corelli (5/1) – The Conductor will throw out her last race over soft turf. Her 3rd two back at Monmouth vs Grade 1 company beats this field.

raven run stakes

Other Contenders: #6 Bizzee Channel (15/1), #12 Sugoi (12/1) – Both are dangerous if left alone on the front end.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. F.G2 Raven Run Stakes

This is a hell of a race as well. #2 Four Graces (5/2) and #5 Venetian Harbor (7/5) are obvious contenders, but there look to be many live prices as well.

#8 Fair Maiden (15/1) – This filly ran a huge late pace figure in her win last race. That was her first race of the year and also her first ever race on dirt. She showed she could run against Grade 1 company on turf last year and the Conductor loves her upside 2nd off the layoff.

#10 Secret Keeper (12/1) – A west coast dirt horse shipping east and cutting back to a sprint, the Conductor must use her. She’s beaten some nice Baffert horses sprinting and has talent.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 20000n2L

#9 El Supremo (7/2) – The Conductor doesn’t have a strong opinion in the finale. He was up close to a hot pace last time and is dropping in class today.

Other Contenders: #1 Why Why Paul Why (5/1), Quarterback Dak (5/2), #10 Czechmight (6/1)

Keeneland: Pin Oak Valley View Stakes Late Pick 4

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A lineup of thoroughbred racehorses at the starting gate at Keeneland, featuring jockeys in colorful silks ready for the race.

The 45/1 shot in the 6th at Keeneland Thursday has the Conductor kicking himself. Elie Z had enough early gas to make the lead on paper, which is always dangerous in a turf sprint. Hopefully a few of you passengers hit a nice exacta or trifecta in the Sycamore Stakes however, with #1 Postulation running 2nd at 7/1. Friday is finally here, time to mix in a little more stew to our pony diet today. Let’s ride.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 73000n2x

#7 High Crime (8/1) – This colt’s early pace figures are off the charts and he’ll be on the lead early. Shortening back to 5 ½ furlongs will help his chances.

Other Contenders: #2 Power End (10/1), #9 Explorer (5/2), #11 Competitive Saint (7/2)

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. OC 150000n4x

#6 Admiral Lynch (2/1) – Dropping in class 2nd off the layoff, his race at Saratoga two back gets the job done here.

#4 Seven Nation Army (12/1) – He ran a very strong race last time, pressing a hot pace wide around the track. He’s improving is 3rd off the layoff and has good early speed.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Pin Oak Valley View Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #10 Outburst (20/1) – Stretching out 3rd off the layoff, she’s a Grade 3 winner, which many of these contenders can’t claim. She looks to be sitting on a big effort at a massive price.

Keeneland

Other Contenders: #1 Duolpoly (9/2), #11 Stunning Sky (7/2), #12 Antoinette (5/2)

Race 9: 6½ Furlongs. F.Clm 20000n2L

#8 Veiled Vixen (5/1) – Dropping in class at Keeneland off a long layoff, she’s working well and will beat this field. If she runs her race, she ins for fun.

Other Contenders: #3 Ms. Malevolence (5/1), #5 Competitive Fire (15/1)

Keeneland: Sycamore Stakes Pick 3 for Thursday, October 15

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A horse with the number 12 on its saddle walking in front of a crowd at Keeneland Racecourse.

A nice 9/2 winner on top in the 7th and late pick 4 that paid $334.10 for 50 cents is what the passengers ordered on Wednesday, and that’s what the Conductor delivered. As a happy passenger myself, I’ll certainly buy multiple t-shirts at the train station right away! Sycamore Stakes time, Let’s Ride.

The Good Ductor never settles, however. Keeneland is calling again, Let’s Ride.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 73000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Yes Its Ginger (10/1) – She presses a scorching pace and tired over a demanding Kentucky Downs turf course last time. Shortening back to 5 ½ furlongs today, her early gas will be more dangerous and she’s working like a rocket.

sycamore stakes

Other Contenders: #10 Violenza (5/1)

Race 7: 1 3/16 Mile. Alw 71000n1x

The Conductor thinks Ian Wilkes has a major chance to get off the schneid at Keeneland in this race with two live runners in here.

#1 Don Bourbon (9/2) – 2nd off the layoff today, he ran very well last race to finish 2nd with a troubled trip. The added distance will help him here and he’ll be in a good spot early up close to a slow pace.

#5 Letmeno (4/1) – He stumbled at the break and lost all chance last time. 2nd off the layoff today, the Conductor want to see the tactics used to cross the wire first in the Iowa Derby two back. Go right to the front in a race devoid of pace.

Other Contenders: #9 Spa City (7/2)

Race 8: 1½ Mile. (Turf) G3 Sycamore Stakes

#10 Ziyad (5/2) – His European form lays over this Grade 3 American field. 1st time Lasix for Motion, he’ll be very tough to beat. However, the Conductor likes two prices to include underneath

#1 Postulation (15/1) – Throw out his last race over soft turf last time and this old man fits with this group. He nearly wired the field two back against tougher over this turf course and has good tactical speed.

#5 Big Agenda (10/1) – The “Other Maker” in here, he unsurprisingly has taken big steps forward in the new barn. Winner of his last two, he will be forwardly placed and trending in the right direction.

Other Contenders: #2 Red Night (3/1), #6 Aquaphobia (5/2)

Keeneland: Late Pick 4 for Wednesday, October 14

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A thrilling horse race featuring multiple jockeys in colorful silks on a dirt track, with a large crowd in the background.

Only one day of rest for the Conductor as Keeneland comes back today. He missed that 13/1 shot to start the late pick 4 at Belmont Monday, but hopefully some passengers cashed on the late double that paid 24/1. Small fields in the early races at Keeneland, so the Conductor will look toward the latter half of the card. Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 70k

#5 Take Charge Ro (3/1) – The Conductor sees this as a chalky maiden race. None of the first-time starters catch his eye other than the Cox runner. This filly is coming off a long layoff, but working well for a quality barn and her last race makes her clearly the one to beat in here.

Other Contenders: #4 Santa Guapa (5/2)

Race 6: 6½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 70k

*Double Barreled Buckshot #4 Chewy Chewy Good (12/1) – She made a nice early wide move before flattening down the lane last time. 3rd off the layoff and shortening ½ furlong today, the Conductor sees her taking a big step forward.

#7 April in Paris (8/1) – She tired after setting the pace off a layoff last time. The shorter distance and extra fitness will help her here and she showed ability in the summer.

keeneland

Other Contenders: #1 Dovima (5/2), #2 Motown Girl (8/1), #3 Movie Moxie (3/1), #8 Here Comes Josie (15/1)

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 100000n2x

#9 Regal Beauty (10/1) – This is a very competitive field and a great betting race. This filly is steadily progressing in the Calhoun barn and the Conductor sees her being even better shortening to 6 furlongs. Doubt we’ll get 10/1 but she still should be a good price.

Other Contenders: #4 Lexi On the Move (7/2), #5 Charming Lady (4/1), #8 Purrfectly Claire (9/2)

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. MC 15000

#7 Oak Room (5/1) – Another difficult race with many big class droppers, the Conductor will land on this colt. He showed some ability in his debut and has been well bet in every start. Trainer Ron Moquett is 31% with a +$1.38 ROI dropping horses 2+ classes this year.

Other Contenders: #6 Champers (4/1), #8 Continental Clash (6/1)

Belmont Park: The Late Pick 4 for Monday, October 12

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A group of racehorses competing on a grassy track at Belmont Park during a horse race.

The 15/1 shot in the 7th knocked the Conductor out right away yesterday. Hopefully some passengers were able to make a few shekels with the Gullet Shot of the Day running 2nd at 11/1 in the finale. The Conductor needs these prices at Belmont to stop getting beat by a neck, its bad for his health. Today’s late sequence is very intriguing. Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. (OFF Turf) F.S.MC 40000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #13 Tiny Magoo (5/1) – With this race being taken off the turf, the Conductor looks immediately to the MTO’s. Throw out her last race where they tried turf and she’s run the best races of the group. 5/1 would be delightful.

belmont

#11 Chaika (8/1) – Be weary of trainer Richard Lugovich with 1st time starters. He runs very few horses but when he does they often win at big prices.

Other Contenders: 8,13,14

Race 7: 1 Mile. Clm 40000

The Conductor can make a legit case for any of the runners of here. Your on your own on this one, its about time you take some responsibility. The Conductor suggests you include as many as possible.

Contenders: All

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. Alw 65000n1x

#4 Clench (6/1) – Stepping up in class today, this boy is in good form. He returns to Belmont where he is 2/2 lifetime and has enough back class for the conductor to give him a strong look.

Other Contenders: 2

Race 9: 6½ Furlongs. Clm 16000n2L

#1 After Prom Party (8/1) – Any winner of their last race is dangerous in a low level non winners of two event. He has good early speed and is lightly raced with more upside than many of the other proven losers in here.

#4 Dr. Devera’s Way (6/1) – Dropping to this level for the first time, you’ll get a better price because of low level connections than you should. He has every chance.

#8 Jack of Clubs (15/1) – Taking the blinkers off, switching back to dirt and also dropping in class. He’s a wildcard that the conductor can see surprising at a big number. He hasn’t raced on dirt since last year and those efforts certainly fit right in with this group.

Other Contenders: 5

Belmont Park: The Late Pick 4 for Sunday, October 11

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Crowd of spectators watching a horse race at a racetrack with horses and jockeys in view.

The Conductor was garbage at Belmont yesterday. We got to see some superstars, but small fields make for poor betting opportunities. This late sequence looks like there is some meat on the bone. Back on the horse, Skip.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) G3 Futurity Stakes

*Best Bet #8 County Final (6/1) – He tired on the soft ground and further distance last time, but his prior efforts make him the one to beat in the Conductor’s opinion. Back to 6 furlongs and firm ground will help him today.

Other Contenders: #2 After Five (3/1), #9 Momos (7/2)

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. Mdn 63k

#6 Original (8/1) – This colt looks fit to debut with five solid 5-furlong works at Belmon in the month of September. Terranova is 11% with a +2.25 ROI with first time starters this year and Saeaz takes the mount.

Other Contenders: 1 Greatest Honor (7/2), #2 Caddo River (3/1), #4 Chasing Fame (10/1) #5 Speaker’s Corner (5/2)

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.G3 Matron Stakes

#7 Royal Approval (9/5) – You won’t see many flashier maiden breakers in turf sprints like hers last out. She’ll be very tough to beat.

#8 Magisterium (5/2) – The wild card from across the pond, she’s yet to run out of the exacta and is more battle tested than this group.

Other Contenders: None

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 40000n2L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 More Like It (15/1) – Stretching out for the first time at Belmont and dropping in class, he’s been holding his own vs tougher. Levine is 13% with a +0.63 ROI with runners 1st time routing and this gelding has every chance vs this group.

Belmont Park

Other Contenders: #1 Gentleman Joe (5/1), #2 Mr. Vincent (15/1), #6 Wild Banker (12/1), #7 Turn of Events (2/1), #10 Traffic Pattern (7/2)

 

 

 

Belmont and Keeneland: Graded Stakes Picks October 10

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A gray racehorse with a jockey wearing a purple helmet and green and white silks racing on a dirt track.

Not great at Belmont yesterday, but the Conductor started seeing the ball well at Keeneland and was able to get a few body shots in. The tracks can only defend themselves for so long, plenty of quality racing today. Let’s Ride.

Belmont Park:

Race 4: 1 Mile. C1 Champagne Stakes

#5 Reinvestment Risk (8/5) – This colt ran behind #4 Jackie’s Warrior (3/5) last time, but the Conductor thinks he can turn the tables. He’s bred to go longer and the extra furlong today will help his cause.

Race 5: 1 Mile. F.Frizette-G1 Frizette Stakes

The Conductor prefers #1 Vequist (2/1) over the #2 Cantata (9/5). Vequist has been tested by winners and gutted them like a fish.

#6 Get On the Bus (20/1) – A bomb that the Conductor will use underneath, this filly looks to get a nice trip with a hot pace to close into. She should improve on the stretch-out and O’neil clearly thinks highly of her, throwing her into graded stakes right away.

Keeneland

Race 8: 1 ¼ Mile (Turf) G1 Flower Bowl

#1 Cambier Parc (5/2) – The Conductor has always been a fan of this filly. 2nd off the layoff for Chad she’s the one to beat.

#4 La Signare (8/1) – She’s been facing tougher competition than this group and has run well despite not getting into the winner’s circle. At a nice price in a small field the Conductor will include her.

Race 9: 1 ¼ Mile. G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes

#4 Tacitus (1/1) – This isn’t a great betting race, but Tacitus should destroy this field (tell me if you’ve heard that before). He’s let people down enough times that he may be a higher price than he should. The Conductor will take anything over even money.

Race 10: 1 Mile (Turf) G2 Sands Point

This looks like another chalky race to the Conductor. #1 Tamahere (5/2) will be is top pick, but #3 Selflessly and #5 Miss J McKay (7/2) are the only other winning contenders and he doesn’t have a strong opinion.

Keeneland:

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. G2 Hagyard Fayette Stakes

Now this is a good gambling race and the Conductor likes some prices.

*Double Barreled Buckshot #1 Coastal Defense (6/1) – This colt continues to steadily progress and improve the further he runs. He can put himself in a good spot early and wont tire.

#10 Aurelius Maximus (10/1) – This colt was well meant as a baby and has struggled to stay on the racetrack. He looked very good in his comeback win off a break last time and looks to be sitting on a big one 2nd off the layoff.

Keeneland

The Conductor will mainly be using those two, but #4 Mirinaque (15/1) is an intriguing bomb that he will use a little bit as well. He was ultra-consistent in Argentina on both turf and dirt and against massive fields. His only race in the states was behind Maximum Security and he didn’t show his best that day. He’s a wildcard that will be a huge number.

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.G1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup S

#4 Magic Attitude (5/2) – This filly looked smooth as silk in her first start in the US last time. The Conductor thinks she’ll be very tough to beat.

#6 Hendy Woods (10/1) – She was checked hard in her last start and was still able to run 2nd behind Sharing, who would be favored in here. She’ll be a nice price and take a big step forward with a clean trip.

#1 Harvey’s Little Goyle (3/1) – The Conductor has been impressed by her versatility at Keeneland and the shorter distance will help her today.

Keeneland: Spot Plays for Friday, October 9

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A group of jockeys riding horses during a race at Keeneland, with trees in bloom in the background.

The Conductor is going to shorten up on Keeneland today. He’ll focus on the higher quality races. Let’s Ride.

 

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. OC 80000n3x

Doubled Barreled Buckshot Play of the Day #6 Lasting Legacy (9/2) – This is a very competitive field and a great betting race. This horse crossed the wire 1st last time off a short break and looks primed to run his best 2nd off the layoff. He has class in his form lines and hasn’t run a bad race in the last two years. He’ll have good early position as well.

#7 Rubus (12/1) – This gelding has progressed in each of his 4 starts this year and is exiting a nice victory at Churchill Downs. He gets back to Keeneland, where he does his best running and is in the best form of his career.

Keeneland

Race 9: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Buffalo Trace Franklin County Stakes

#2 Into Mystic (6/1) – #10 Got Stormy (6/5) is clearly the one to beat, but this will be her first time going this short of a distance. The distance was too long for Into Mystic last time. However, she will shorten up to her preferred 5 ½ furlongs today. She has good early speed and will be able to get the jump on Got Stormy turning for home. Whether Got Stormy runs her down her not will be up to the pony gods, but it is a simple exacta either way.

Belmont Park: The Late Pick 5 for Friday, October 9

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Horses racing at Belmont Park with jockeys in colorful silks on a dirt track.

3/4 in the pick 4 yesterday at Belmont Park and the Conductor is kicking himself for not using the lone speed in the first leg. Of course, his two horses after scratches run 2nd and 3rd behind him. But as the old saying goes, if you don’t hit the late pick 4 on Thursday, play and whack the late pick 5 on Friday. Skip.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. Clm 12500

#8 Our Honor (8/1) – Returning to Belmont, he’s 3/5 lifetime over the track and gets a major rider upgrade to Saez today. He’s the price horse the Conductor must use.

Other Contenders: #6 Summer Bourbon (4/1), #1 Vincero (5/2)

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) S.Alw 55000n1x

#12 Stanhope (6/1) – 2nd out for the Cox Barn, he was as cooked in a hot pace last time and folded. He’s getting Lasix today for the first time and is working well.

Other Contenders: #11 Microsecond (2/1), #8 Fly Fly Away (8/1), #1 Point Him Out (8/1)

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. Alw 65000n1x

#3 Adare (3/1) – This colt has run huge late pace figures without the aid of hot paces in his last two starts. He’s the one to beat.

Other Contenders: #7 Fed Funds (10/1), #8 Mischeif Afoot (7/2)

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.OC 62500n2x

*#3 Sorrentina Lemon (2/1) – Most of the Conductor’s play will go throw this filly. She’s yet to run a bad race.

Belmont Park

The one that most scares the Conductor #4 Orglandes (5/1) – 2nd time in in the US for Chad Brown with Irad aboard, the Conductor likes her European class.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 30000n2L

The Conductor can’t get too narrow here.

Contenders: #1 Hard Count (5/2), #2 Spitball (10/1), #3 Crack Shot (9/2), #6 What’s to Blame (6/1)