Month: October 2020

Belmont Park: The Late Pick 4 for Thursday, October 8

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Jockeys and horses walking towards the racetrack at Belmont Park during a horse racing event.

Belmont Park, Let’s Ride.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 35000n3L

#6 Qian B C (8/1) – He’s the price the Conductor likes most, dropping to the claiming ranks for the first time and returning to Belmont, where he runs his best. The Conductor will also use #7 Power Up Paynter (4/1) and #12 Smile Brian (5/2).

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. S.Alw 55000n1x

#11 Bears Mafia (4/1) – Winner of 5 in a row, gelding is in the best form of the bunch. Since he’s been running at Finger lakes he likely won’t be over bet.

*#6 Samay (20/1) – He ran a good 3rd off a year layoff behind Bears Mafia last time. This gelding loves to win and if he steps forward with a race under his belt, he can light up the tote.

#9 Tiergan (8/1) – He just missed at this level back in January and is returning after a long break. He’s posting bullet works for top connections.

#7 Number One Dillon (30/1) – He faded badly after pressing a hot pace last time. His win two back was against much weaker, but was very fast on the clock. With a bullet last work, the Conductor has seen much more questionable bombs.

belmont park

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 65000n1x

#4 Notorious R B G (7/2) – Her last race makes her the one to beat in the Conductor’s opinion, but there are many contenders.

Other Contenders: 1,3,7,8,9

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 51k

#8 Panster (5/2), #12 Whatmakessammyrun (9/2) – Both these boys did some running in their debuts in races taken off the turf. They have an experience edge over most of this group and should take a big step forward today on the surface they are meant for.

Keeneland: Key Horses for Thursday, October 8

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A group of jockeys riding horses during a race at a crowded racetrack.

Thank the Pony Gods for that one, Aunt Pearl looks like the real deal. Keeneland is a fickle beast and the Conductor was whiffing by miles Wednesday. He’ll be more selective Thursday, focus on the higher quality races and bet with both fists. Skip.

 

Race 3: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 70k

*Double Barreled Buckshot #7 Flutiste (5/1) – Going two sprints to a route for Motion, this filly ran a good 3rd last time at Kentucky Downs and the Conductor sees her improving with the added distance and race experience. Speed and Kentucky Downs shippers have been running well on the turf so far this meet.

#4 Mummy Dearest (8/1) – This filly ran decent in her debut behind Flutiste and will also be stretching out for the first time. Trainer Michael Ewing is 7/17 with a +$1.56 ROI with horses routing for the first time this year.

keeneland

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 100000n2x

#5 Sonneman (8/5) – This colt is steadily progressing in the Assmusen barn and is dropping out of graded stakes competition. His class should be too much for this group.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. MC 75000

#4 Ghost Fighter (5/1) – Switching back to dirt 2nd off the layoff, this colt is exiting a key race at Kentucky Downs and showed ability on dirt last year. He adds blinkers today as well.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Mdn 70k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #11 Sovereign Appeal (10/1) – This filly had a tough trip last time at Keeneland and throw out her race on grass two back. She ran a very good 2nd at Churchill in July and will stretch-out with blinkers for the first time today. The Conductor loves her upside at a big price.

keeneland

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 78000

#6 Spectacular (3/1) – Dropping out of Grade 1 company, he was up close to a hot pace last time. He should be able to dictate the pace against a weaker field here and wire them.

#9 Monarch’s Glen (10/1) – Use him underneath in the exacta and trifecta. Ignore his last race on a sloppy track and look at his 2nd behind Grade 1 winner Digital Age two back.

Keeneland: Key Horses for Wednesday, October 7

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Concrete Rose, a thoroughbred racehorse, galloping during a race with a jockey in purple and white attire, showcasing speed and agility.

Graded stakes, full fields and plenty of juicy prices. That’s just what the Ductor ordered at Keeneland on a Wednesday. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 1/8 Mile. Mdn 70k

*Best Bet #2 Airstreem (8/1) – The Conductor is praying we get a price around this morning line. This colt was bet to favoritism off a year layoff last time, was 4wide into the first turn and was sitting behind a slow pace. Trainer Kelsey Danner is 10% with a +$1.38 ROI this year with runners 2nd off the layoff.

Other Contenders: 6

Race 2: 1 Mile. F.Clm 30000n2L

Windpipe Whack Wednesday Bomb of the Day #3 Templuna (15/1) – Throw out her last race sprinting on synthetic, this girl fits right in with this group at a big price. She drops in class to her lowest career level and is clearly best routing on dirt with limited opportunities. Trainer John Wainwright is only 3% this year, but is 3/18 with a +$0.03 ROI with runners going sprint to route.

Keeneland

Other Contenders: 5,6

Race 3: 1½ Mile. (Turf) Alw 73000n2x

#9 So High (12/1) – The Conductor likes is gelding’s European form and is consistent runner. He’s run in the exacta 5/7 times and on three different surfaces. The distance is his friend as well.

Other Contenders: 5,8

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. F.OClm 10000

#6 I Dream of Lois (6/1) – This mare ran sneaky well sprinting on the turf last time vs tougher. She made up ground, closing wide into a slow pace and she’s an old warrior. She’ll be able to work out a good trip in this race up close to a slow pace, and trainer Thomas Vance is 32% with a +$2.44 ROI this year switching runners from turf to dirt.

Other Contenders: 1,7

Race 5: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Alw 71000n1x

#6 Battalion (12/1) – He’s run well in his last two starts with trouble at the start and the step up in class today is deceiving. The Saratoga shippers seem to be firing at Keeneland early in the meet.

Other contenders: 2,9

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. F.Alw 25000s

#6 La Femme Royale (9/2) – The layoff doesn’t concern the Conductor since she’s won multiple times off long breaks and is working consistently. She draws a nice post, can go to the lead or sit right off and she loves to win.

Other Contenders: Queen Nakia (1/1)

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 JPMorgan Chase Jessamine Stakes

#7 Aunt Pearl (3/1) – This filly looked like the goods in her debut. The Conductor sees her putting on a show today.

Single!

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. MC 30000

#2 Vedder (4/1) – Cutting back to a sprint and trying dirt for the first time, he posted a bullet last work at Keeneland and looks to run a career best. Trainer Eddie Keneally is also 22% with a +$1.12 ROI with runners 2nd off the layoff.

Other Contenders: 8

Belmont Park: Key Horses for Sunday, October 4

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Horses and jockeys racing at Belmont Park, showcasing the excitement of a horse race with colorful silks and starting gates.

What a race by the filly. That was awesome, the Conductor would have enjoyed it more if he wasn’t getting crushed at Belmont all day. Here is some footage of him after the races yesterday as well:

Belmont Park

But you can’t kill what was never alive. Let’s Ride.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CF5aG1xp3cb/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

Race 5: 1 Mile. Alw 50000s

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Saratoga Pal (4/1) – This gelding ran massive last time to break his maiden and stretches out today for the first time. The 2nd and 3rd place finishers in that race have come back to win and the Conductor is praying to get that morning line price.

Other Contenders: 1A

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.G2 Miss Grillo Stakes

#8 Plum Ali (5/2) – This race stinks after the scratches. This girl is the only one left in the field who has beaten winners, and she did it after a troubled start last race.

Other Contenders: 4

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. F. G2 Beldame Stakes

#1 Letruska (3/1) – The lone speed in the race, she proved she can get the distance last time. She can steal this on the front end.

Other Contenders: 2

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) G3 Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational Stakes

#3 Backtohisroots (6/1) – This colt continues to steadily progress and has turned into a new animal this summer. The Conductor sees him building on his victory last time.

Other Contenders: 1,2

Pimlico: Preakness Day Late Pick 5

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Horses and jockeys racing at the start of the Preakness Stakes event with starting gates in the background.

Preakness time, Let’s Ride.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. G3 Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash Stakes

#5 Landeskog (5/2) – This gelding won his prep nicely off the layoff last time and is working well entering today. He’s shown the Conductor he has talent in his young career and the Conductor will single to start of this bad boy.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Laurel Futurity

#6 Arrest Me Red (6/1) – He won his debut easily and stretches out for the first time today. Trainer Arnaud Delacor is a ridiculous 38% with a +$0.89 ROI with horses at a route this year.

Other contenders: 1,3,7,8,10

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) James W. Murphy Stakes

#9 Monday Morning QB (8/1) – Nothing would surprise the Conductor in this race, but he would love anything close to 8/1 on this colt. 2nd off the layoff, he’s steadily progressing and has yet to run a bad race. If he can translate his dirt form to turf he will have a major chance.

Other Contenders: 7,10,12,13 / ALL

Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G2 George E. Mitchell Black-Eyed Susan Stakes

#3 So Darn Hot (6/1) – The Conductor was very impressed by this filly’s maiden breaker in June. She ran a decent comeback race in the slop with a wide trip last time and the Conductor sees her sitting on a big one today.

Other Contender: #5 Bonny South (7/5)

Race 11: 1 3/16 Mile. G1 Preakness Stakes

*Esophagus Slice Saturday Play of the Day #3 Art Collector (5/2) – Preakness Preview

preakness

Other Contenders: 9,10

Keeneland: Key Horses for Saturday, October 3

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A large crowd gathered at a spring horse racing event with people and horses on a grassy area.

That would be the Conductor’s last winner yesterday, despicable. Great card again today and the Conductor will be firing away at both Pimlico and Keeneland. The anticipation mounts.

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) G2 Woodford Stakes

#4 Just Might (5/1) – This gelding should have no problem getting a solo lead based on his early pace figures. 2nd off the layoff, improving and his 3rd last race was flattered by Diamond Oops yesterday. There is a lot to like.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.G2 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes

#2 Dos Vinos (7/2) – The pace looks to be hot in this one and the Conductor sees this filly getting a perfect trip. She should be able to get first run sitting just behind the dueling frontrunners

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.G1 First Lady Stakes

#4 Newspaperofrecord (8/5) – #1 Beau Recall (2/1) beat her last time, but the Conductor sees her turning the tables here. There is no other speed in this race and she can dictate the terms on the front end. The Conductor also thinks #5 Uni (5/2) has lost a step.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. G1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity

#9 King Fury (12/1) – This 950k son of Curlin won his debut at two turns, which is very difficult to do. He also had a 4wide trip around both turns. He’s the only horse in the field proven at this distance and there is no telling how much he can improve today at Keeneland.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) G1 Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Analyze It (9/2) – Coming back from a two-year layoff last time, he easily beat a Grade 3 field. Chad Brown puts him right back into Grade 1 company today and the Conductor has seen this move 1000 times before. When Chad’s aggressive with horses off long breaks, they’re live.

Keeneland

Keeneland: Key Horses for Friday, October 2nd

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A group of racehorses competing on a dirt track with a large crowd in the background, showcasing the excitement of horse racing events.

The Conductor prays Keeneland is open in the spring and he can roll in the grass with a bottle of stew.

Race 6: 1 Mile. F.OC 75000n2L

*Force Feed Friday Play of the Day #7 Lady Lilly (9/2) – Dropping out of G1 stakes company, she was up close to a very hot pace and still ran well. Additionally, she’s bred to improve stretching out and anything above 7/2 would be very tasty.

Keeneland

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 71000n1x

#3 Sursum Corda (5/1) – This filly was too far back behind a tepid pace going longer last time out. Her maiden breaker two back was very impressive, and she has the best late pace figures in the field. The Conductor likes the shorter distance for her as well.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. G2 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes

#6 Echo Town (8/1) – Cutting back to his preferred sprint distance, this colt looks to get a perfect trip sitting just behind a contested pace.

#12 Midnight Sands (12/1) – 2nd off the layoff and making his 2nd start at Keeneland, this boy is battle tested and loves to win. He was heavily bet last time and is also posting bullet works coming into today. Rosario taking the mount for a trainer he never rides for certainly caught the Conductor’s eye as well.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes

#1 Thoughtfully (3/1) – 950k at auction, this girl has romped in her first two starts. She’s also bred to get better stretching out and the Conductor likes her consistent work tab.

Pimlico: Key Horses for Thursday, October 1

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Horses racing at Pimlico Race Course with a large crowd in the background.

Not often do we get stakes racing on a Thursday, so the Conductor will put Pimlico on his lunch menu. Let’s Eat.

Pimlico

Race 8: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F. The Very One Stakes

#3 A Great Time (10/1) – Exiting a nice win on the synthetic, she also ran well at big odds in a stakes race at Belmont two back on the turf. This old mare is in good form and loves to hit the board.

#1 Giggling (20/1) – She’s run well her efforts his year, including a very fast last race. All three of those races have been rained off the turf and she’ll get to try the lawn again today. She’s only been on grass twice and hasn’t shown much, but both were last year and seems to be much improved as a 3-year-old.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. G3 Chick Lang Stakes

*Throat Shot Thursday Play of the Day #10 Arkaan (6/1) – Cutting back to a sprint here, this colt ran well in his first try at Pimlico going two turns last time. He held onto third after setting the pace and didn’t throw in the towel early. The winner of that race, Pneumatic, is a colt that he Conductor really likes in the Preakness Saturday. Arkaan gets a nice outside draw today with the horse to beat #9 Yaupon (4/5) to his inside.

Belmont Park: Key Horses for Thursday, October 1

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Horses and jockeys racing at Belmont Park, showcasing the excitement of a horse race with colorful silks and starting gates.

Belmont and Keeneland will be staples this fall for the Conductor and he’ll add Santa Anita to the mix if they have decent field sizes. The train will also be at Pimlico this week to get a feel for the track leading up to Preakness Saturday. Any dope can point out the chalk, so Conductor won’t bother unless he sees value. Use these horses on your tickets, buy merch, rinse, repeat. Simple game. Let’s Ride.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 16000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Queen Kahen (6/1) – She was eased in her last start after breaking slow with blinkers for the first time. She’s taking the blinkers back off and shown a fast work since, so the Conductor isn’t concerned about her health. She’s dropping in class here and if you ignore her last race she has every chance. 6/1 would be a great price in a short field.

Belmont Park

Race 4: S.OC 40000n2x

#10 Klickitat (5/1) – He’s a steadily progressing 4-year-old that has a early pace advantage in this race. He’s yet to run a bad race this year and is a nice key to the exacta.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 50000s

#2 Coach Villa (20/1) – This gelding ran a decent 2nd on dirt last time and switches to the turf today. He hasn’t been on the grass in a while but does have a win over the surface and turf in his blood. He posted a solid last work, gets a 5lb weight break and can hit the board at a big number.

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. F.S. Joseph A. Gimma Stakes

#6 Stimulus Check (7/2) – Drawn well to the outside, the Conductor liked this filly’s debut victory at Belmont and looks to get a good stalking trip today. She can reach into the Fed’s pocket for you.