Month: April 2023

Keeneland Saturday Picks — April 15, 2023 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

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Crowd at a Kentucky Wildcats tailgate event with people socializing and enjoying drinks under a tent.

0/3 Friday brought the train to a screeching halt. We’ll let Keeneland have win one round, but that’s it. Back to domination today when the pools are the fattest. Start shoveling. Skip.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Tepeu (9/2) – This 1st time gelding showed talent last summer when they switched him over to dirt. He’s working well entering today and should take a step forward in his first start as a 4-year-old. Any improvement will make him tough to beat and we should get a fair price with this contentious field. The Conductor will happily bet against the favorite #1 Barber Road (5/2), who loves to settle for 2nd and 3rd.

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Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Giant’s Causeway Stakes

#5 Amy C (6/1) – This turf sprint is going to have a scorching pace and the Conductor is looking for a closer. The Conductor loves the versatility this mare has shown in her career. She’s won over synthetic, routing on turf and sprinting down the hill at Santa Anita. She has enough early speed to keep in touch with this field and will be flying late.

#7 Opening Buzz (15/1) – This filly also has a strong late punch and she’s 5/7 sprinting on turf and synthetic. Her fastest race came sprinting at 5 furlongs at Del Mar on the grass, so the Conductor likes the surface switch. She looks to get a perfect trip and will be a juicy number.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. G3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes

#6 Disarm (7/2) – The Conductor thinks we’ll get a fair 7/2 on this colt and he’s by far the most likely winner.  His 2nd in the Louisiana Derby was much better than it looks on paper. He closed strongly into a slow pace and against a track that was favoring speed.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G1 Jenny Wiley Stakes

#2 In Italian (7/5) – While #3 Queen Goddess (4/1) and #5 With The Moonlight (5/2) pose legitimate threats, the Conductor has to eat chalk and trust her early pace edge. She ran too good too lose in last year’s Breeders’ Cup over this Keeneland turf course and Tuesday isn’t in this field.

Race 11: 6½ Furlongs. F.OC 80000n2x

#9 My Kentucky Girl (10/1) – All four of this filly’s races on a fast dirt track give her a chance to win this race. She is the best closer in the field and there will be plenty of pace in front of her to run at. In her only start at Keeneland vs similar, she dominated at 7/1.

#1 Your So Sillea (20/1) – The Conductor has to mention this girl as well. She exits the same synthetic race as My Kentucky Girl, where she ran very well despite a troubled trip. She also has past dirt form that makes her competitive at this level and a win over this Keeneland surface.

Keeneland Friday Picks — April 14, 2023 | Full Card Value Plays

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Group of people enjoying an outdoor event, holding drinks, with a man in a vintage hat in the background, capturing a lively atmosphere.

Yes, Mr. Conductor, Yes! I need to get my hands on his pony crystal ball. A nice 6/1 #gullet shot winner Thursday at Keeneland along with a 29/1 shot running 4th and a 44/1 shot running 3rd. We bow to him, but as always we passengers want more. You’re only as good as your last race. Skip.

Race 5: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Mrs. Astor (6/1) – The Conductor was very impressed with this filly’s maiden breaker last time. She was wide and uncovered the entire turn and still powered home, running a strong late pace figure. This race is wide open and she should get a nice ground saving trip. 5/1 or better would have the Conductor giddy with joy. Let’s make it back to back #gullets.

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Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.FanDuel Limestone Stakes

#4 Accomplished Girl (6/1) – The Conductor cashed on this filly last time after a tough trip in her debut. She ran them off their feet and will now take on winners for the first time. Even though last time she went gate to wire, the Conductor’s trained eye sees that she’s handy enough to stalk and pounce. There will be a scorching pace set up front in this one. The Conductor is looking for Zayas to sit just behind the dueling leaders and tip out entering the stretch.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) G1 Maker’s Mark Mile

#6 In Love (30/1) – #7 Modern Games (3/5) obviously beats this over matched field. However, we can still make some money and sweet love in this race. This old gelding can beat the rest of the bunch with his A game and he looks primed for a top effort. He made a middle move in his prep race on synthetic and now gets back to his best distance and surface today. He’s won a Grade 1 over this Keeneland turf course going a mile and we just need him to run 2nd.

Keeneland Thursday Picks — April 13, 2023 | Full Card Contenders

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Woof, what could have been at Keeneland Wednesday.

However, a 6/1 2nd and a 60/1 trifecta handed to us on a platter was still very generous of the Conductor. But, us passengers are a greedy bunch. Let’s cross the wire first today Mr. Ductor! Skip.

Keeneland Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Quality Star (8/1) – This race is wide open. #11 Diamond Hands (7/5) is a favorite the Conductor will bet against every day of the week. She’s proven she likes to cough it up late and will be hustled hard early to clear going into the first turn. That will set it up nicely for a closer and the Conductor landed on Quality Star. She draws well to the inside and is making her first turf start as a 4-year-old. It took her a while to break her maiden last year, but she was consistent and ran multiple speed figures that can win this race. Trainer Paul Lobo has them ready to ready to run off the bench too. He’s 19% with a +$0.50 ROI this year with starters off 90+ day breaks.

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Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Mdn 100k

#5 I Had That One Too (30/1) – Why not? Nobody has proven anything in this maiden field and this filly ran well last time stretching out to two turns for the first time. She was in the parking lot around both turns and still finished well down the stretch. The distance will be no problem for her and she could step forward trying dirt for the first time. The Conductor has seen more head scratching longshots win and she’ll light up the exotics even if she runs underneath.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 120000n2x

#2 Cowboy Justice (20/1) – #1 Verbal (5/2) likely wins this race, but he won’t provide us value. If we can pair him up with this Keeneland cowboy, then we’re in business. The rest of this field doesn’t get the Conductor’s attention, so he found this foreign invader with a nice inside draw. He’s working well, has back class and is making his first start as a 4-year-old. Trainer Connor Murphy is 2/5 with a +$3.76 ROI with shippers to the US this year as well.

Keeneland Wednesday Picks — April 12, 2023 | Full Card Contenders

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Two women at a horse racing event, one holding a program, with jockeys and horses in the background.

The Conductor stunk Friday at Keeneland and family kept him away from the track this weekend. What a selfish bunch of passengers. Nothing to stop him this week, or ever. Let’s start the racing week of strong. Skip.

Race 6: 6½ Furlongs. Alw 50000s

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Captain Jack (15/1) – This gelding won at 35/1 after a poor debut last time, but there was nothing fluky about his victory. He pressed the pace and was floated out wide on the turn and continued to grind. He was even bumped entering the stretch and didn’t waiver. He’ll be facing tougher today, but his last race gives him a chance on numbers and the favorites look vulnerable to the Conductor. This morning line is bad per usual at Keeneland, but he’ll still be in the 8/1 range. That’s good enough for the Conductor, so it’s good enough for me.

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Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 120000n2x

#3 One Time Mo (20/1) – #11 Flirting Bridge (1/1) clearly has a class edge over this group, but she draws outside and is coming in off a layoff. She probably wins, however with a full field we can still extract some value even if she does. One Time Mo is steadily progressing on dirt and switches to turf for the first time. She runs like a turf horse and continues to run well closing into slow paces on dirt. She’s bred to step forward on the grass and gets a nice inside draw. Her price will be massive to boot. One Time!

#8 Sister Lou Ann (8/1) – There isn’t any other early speed in this race and this filly will be all by herself. She’s working well off the bench and Irad hops aboard. She is a major threat to go gate to wire. This Keeneland turf course tends to favor speed.

 

Keeneland Opening Day Picks — April 7, 2023 | Spring Meet Kickoff Best Bets

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Horses and jockeys starting a race on a dirt track with spectators in the background.

The last time the Conductor spoke to us, he gave us Affirmative Lady who scored at 8/1 Saturday. He’s seeing the ball well and opening up the Keeneland entries nearly brought him to tears. Full fields of delicious lawn mowing racing, what more could we ask for? NYRA gets back to the turf this week.as well. It’s officially horse racing season. Buckle Up passengers.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 140000b

#2 Camp Hope (8/1) – Making his 3rd start off a break and switching back to turf, this horse is 3/3 at Keeneland. He draws a good inside post and gets Lasix back too. The Conductor is ignoring his recent synthetic form and you should as well. Anything over 5/1 is generous.

#3 Kentucky Ghost (12/1) – Another contender that likes this Keeneland turf course, his class makes him tough when he drops back to the allowance level. He’ll be finishing strong late. In his last two starts at Keeneland vs similar he won at 7/1 and was beaten by a neck.

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 120000n2x

#4 Laugh and Play (6/1) – The Ward runners will be hammered here and the Conductor thinks this filly’s price will float up. She’s been running over the synthetic this winter and has scorching early speed. Turf looks like her best surface to the Conductor and she’ll benefit from the shorter distance. Only one of the Ward horses will be sent early, so she’ll sit a favorable trip on the lead or tracking in 2nd.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) G3 Kentucky Utilities Transylvania Stakes

#11 Carl Spackler (3/1) – This colt will be a short price, but he looks like a monster. The Conductor had to mention him, watch his last race.

#6 Mi Hermano Ramon (15/1) – He’s the one that can inject value into this race for us passengers. He won his debut routing at Del Mar and then followed that with a stakes win down the hill. The Conductor loves to see that type of versatility. Additionally, he has a legit excuse last time where he had a trip from hell in a race that has come back strong. This colt has talent and will run a big race.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Ashland-G1 Central Bank Ashland Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Pride of The Nile (12/1) – The two favorites don’t lay over this field on numbers, so the Conductor is looking for a price. The Ductor is going to ignore this filly’s last effort and her form prior makes her a contender. She was fractious in the gate last time and then broke way in while fighting the rider. She clearly wasn’t herself. The fact that O’neil still has the confidence to bring her back in a Grade 1 is a positive sign. The Conductor likes that she has three solid works over this Keeneland dirt and the rail is usually the place to be. At a big price, the Ductor will take a swing that shows who she really is today.

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