Tag: bob baffert

The Conductor’s Thursday Plays at Del Mar

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Horses and jockeys racing at Del Mar racetrack, showcasing vibrant colors and dynamic action at the starting gate.

Del Mar time, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. S.Mdn 61k

#5 Santanta (7/2) – The lone 4-year-old in the field taking on 3-year-olds, the Conductor likes his work tab.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Clm 32000

#1 Lifeline (10/1) – 2nd off a long layoff and taking a big drop in class, he gets a 7 lb weight break and has a nice inside draw.

Race 3: 5 Furlongs. F.MC 80000

*Never a Doubt West Coast Night Cap Best Bet of the Day #7 Foggy Bottom (6/1) – Drawn well to the outside, the Conductor loves her long works over a tiring Golden Gate surface. Trainer Bill McLean is 17% with a +$2.85 debuting maiden claimers this year.

Del Mar

Race 4: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 61k

#2 Stylishly (5/2) – 1st time in the Simon Callahan barn is always dangerous. This filly has run well against tougher and looks to be ready to roll.

Race 5: 1 Mile. Clm 8000

#4 Excavation (4/1) – Dropping in class and getting a 7 lb weight break he looks to get a favorable trip on or up close to a moderate pace.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.S.OC 20000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Hot On the Trail (12/1) – Lightly raced and stretching out to a route, she looks to get a good trip with a hot pace to run at. Desormeaux doesn’t ride for Glatt often at Del Mar, but when he does, he’s usually live. They’ve won 3 of their last 4 starts together.

Del Mar

Race 7: 1 Mile. MC 50000

#9 Lostinthemoment (10/1) – Van Dyke hops a board for an out of town barn and the shippers have been live this meet with the bonuses offered.

The Conductor’s Wednesday Preview at Del Mar

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Horses racing on a dirt track at Del Mar Racetrack with spectators in the foreground.

The racing week starts tomorrow at Del Mar, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) OC 100000b

#4 Eddie Haskell (6/5) – 3rd off the layoff, he’s 5/6 at Del Mar with one 2nd and 8/11 at the distance. He’s the type of favorite that’s tough to bet against.

Race 2: 6 ½ Furlong. Clm 8000

#3 Twirling Tiger (5/1) – This old gelding gets back to Del Mar where he was last victorious and drops in class.  The weight break helps as well.

Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs. S.MC 500000

#2 Afternoon Heat (7/2) – She gets a 7 lb weight break as well and ran a good 2nd last time at this level in her debut.  With a natural step forward, the Conductor sees her in the winners circle.

Race 4: 1 Mile. OC 62500b

*Never a Doubt Best Bet of the Day #6 Hot Sean (4/1) – 3rd off the layoff, he made an early move into a hot pace last start and now stretches out to a route. Baffert is 44% with a +$1.04 ROI moving runners from two sprints to a route this year.

Del Mar

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 50000n2L

#5 Shanghai Truffles (3/1) – She’s lightly raced and took a nice step forward last time. The Conductor likes fillies on the incline.

Race 6: 1 ½ Mile. G3 Cougar H.

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Premium Forest (20/1) – #7 Campaign (6/5) is the clear one to beat, but the Conductor will key this colt in the exacta and trifecta at a big number. A winner on synthetic, turf and dirt, he is versatile and on the improve. He looks to get a favorable trip up close to a slow pace and has the late pace figures to get the distance.

Related image

Race 7: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 61k

#3 Miss Stormy (6/1) – She’s coming in off a long layoff, but with solid connections and a sprint distance that doesn’t concern the Conductor. She ran 2nd at this level last fall and with some maturity she has major upside.

The Conductor’s Opening Day Plays at Del Mar

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Exciting start of a horse race at Del Mar racetrack with multiple horses and jockeys in action.

Talk about action, big work week starts tomorrow. Toga rolls right into Del Mar, what a treat. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 Mile. Alw 50000

#4 Surprise Fashion (10/1) – Stretching out to a dirt route for the first time, the Conductor sees him stepping forward. He will key him in the exacta as the likely highest price on the board.

Race 2: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) S.OC 62500n2x

#5 Starting Bloc (4/1) – The Conductor liked his finish last time having to wait behind horses. He is steadily progressing this year.

Race 3: 1 Mile. Clm 16000

#1 Oh Man (7/2) – Dropping back to the claiming ranks, he has the best races at this distance in the field.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Clm 20000

#5 Giddymeister (5/2) – Winner of 3 of his last 4, he is in good form and keeps getting better.

Race 5: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 40000n1x

#6 Kiana’a Love (6/1) – She moves into the Peter Miller barn and he takes the blinkers off, which is a positive ROI move for him this year. This filly showed real talent in her debut win.

Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.S.MC 50000

#6 Golden Goddess (15/1) – The Conductor doesn’t have a strong opinion in this wide-open baby race. He likes this girl’s multiple 4F works.

Race 7: 5 Furlongs. F.S.Mdn 61k

*Never a Doubt Backstretch Birds Chirping Lock of the Day #3 Smiling Shirlee (3/1) – The word is out at Del Mar on this filly, just look at her work tab and you’ll see why.

race ostrich GIF

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) Runhappy Oceanside Stakes 100k

#2 Roger That (30/1) – The Conductor likes #8 Gregorian Hunt (7/2), and if you like him you must like Roger That at 8 times the price. He was only beaten 1 ¼ lengths by Gregorian Hunt in Ireland and he stretches out to a route today for the 1st time. The Conductor will key him in the trifecta.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. OC 40000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Jack Van Berg (20/1) – 1st time out for the Michael Puhich barn, he ran a good 3rd against a tough 12-horse field at Churchill last time. In this sprint without much pace, his early/turn pace figures make him very dangerous at a big number. The Conductor will key him in the exacta and trifecta.

Del Mar

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) S.Mdn 61k

#7 Unusually Handsome (8/1) – The Conductor like that Van Dyke takes the mount for the “other” Peter Miller entry in here.

Kentucky Derby Preview

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Dynamic horse race featuring multiple horses and jockeys in vibrant silks, showcasing the excitement of competitive racing.

The posts were drawn yesterday for the Kentucky Derby and the Conductor is now able to chart out the race. With speed drawn to the far inside and outside and Omaha Beach right in the middle, he doesn’t see how this pace doesn’t heat up.  The Conductor still has a lot of work to do in the Saturday under-card, but he’s got the big boy locked up. Only 3 more sleeps, strap in, Let’s Ride.

*UPDATE – Omaha Beach has scratched which stinks for the Conductor. It won’t change his win contenders, but will hurt their prices.

Race 12: 1 1/4 Mile. G1 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve Grade I

#1 War of Will (20/1) – Rail draw and a major setback last race, he’s a straight toss for the Conductor.

#2 Tax (20/1) – The Conductor likes this colt a lot. He’s got the heart of the champion but the distance is a question. He’ll be used underneath early.

*#3 By My Standards (20/1) – He’ll be one of the four horses the Conductor will be using on top and trying to get alive to in all his bets. He’s steadily progressing with every start and the Conductor loved the way he kicked home in the Louisiana Derby.  He’s working well at Churchill by all accounts.

#4 Gray Magician (50/1) – He won’t be anywhere on the Conductor’s tickets.

#5 Improbable (6/1)

– An obvious contender with major talent, the Conductor is still a little undecided on him.  He was restless in the gate in the Arkansas Derby and ran a solid 2nd and is working like a monster.  He’ll be used in 2nd and 3rd and may be the 5th horse the Conductor includes on top.

*UPDATE – The Conductor is definitely using him on top.

#6 Vekoma (20/1) – Winner of the Bluegrass, he took advantage of a speed biased race track and the Conductor doesn’t like his action.  The Conductor doesn’t see him hitting the board.

#7 Maximum Security (10/1) – He romped in the Florida Derby and is a legitimate contender, but if he wins, the Conductor will lose.  He still hasn’t proven he can take early pace pressure and still finish.  He’ll only be used underneath.

*#8 Mr. Tacitus (10/1)

– He’s the Conductor’s 2nd favorite colt in here.  His Wood performance was very impressive, winning after getting slammed and checked going to the first turn.  He proved he can overcome trouble and that is a major key in a 20-horse field.  He’ll be used on top.

#9 Plus Que Parfait (30/1) – The Conductor won’t use him anywhere.

#10 Cutting Humor (30/1) – He has strong late pace figures and has an outside shot to run 3rd or 4th but no higher.

#11 Haikal (30/1) – Same analysis as #10 Cutting Humor

#12 Omaha Beach (4/1) – *SCRATCHED The Derby favorite and rightfully so.  He’s been tough as nails, turning away grade 1 winners in his last two preps.  The Conductor sees him running a solid race, but will be up in the teeth of what he sees as a hot early pace.  One of the Conductor’s horses will pass him late.

#13 Code of Honor (15/1) – He had no chance trying to close into a tepid place in the Florida Derby.  The Conductor can see him rounding out the bottom of the tri or super.

***#14 Win Win Win (15/1) – Exiting the Bluegrass Stakes he’s the Conductor’s top pick in this year’s running of the roses. He got absolutely stopped on the turn at Keeneland and still re-rallied against a speed favoring track for a game 2nd.  He’ll appreciate the added distance and will have pace to run at.  The Conductor sees him sitting mid pack and engulfing them at a big price down the stretch. Kick Home!

Kentucky Derby

#15 Master Fencer (50/1) – Toss

*#16 Mr. Game Winner (5/1)

– The 4th horse the Conductor will absolutely use in the horizontal wagers and the Baffert the Conductor like most.  He traveled wide on both turns in the Santa Anita Derby. Game Winner eeven galloped out past Roadster despite getting nailed before the wire.  He can run all day and is battle tested.

#17 Roadster (6/1) – He had a perfect trip in the Santa Anita Derby and the Conductor doesn’t see him getting another one from the 17 post.  He has talent, but the Conductor will only use him underneath.

#18 Long Range Toddy (30/1) – He ran a dud in the slop last time and it looks like there will be rain in Louisville Saturday.  He’ll drop to the back and make one run, the Conductor will only use him in 3rd and 4th.

#19 Spinoff (30/1) – The Conductor likes him, but he’ll have to expend a lot of energy early to get position going into the first turn.  He’ll be in the mix when the turn for home, but the Conductor doesn’t see him getting his picture taken.  Underneath for sure tho.

#20 Country House (20/1) – He’ll be coming from the back of the back, again no better than 3rd.

#21 Bodexpress (30/1) – He benefited from being up close to a slow pace in the Florida Derby.  From the far outside the Conductor can’t see him running better than 4th in the Kentucky Derby.

Top Pick: #14 Win Win Win (15/1)

Winning Contenders: #3 By My Standards (20/1), #5 Improbable (6/1), #8 Tacitus (10/1), #14 Win Win Win (15/1), #16 Game Winner (5/1)

The Conductor’s Kentucky Derby Stakes Under-card analysis will be up tomorrow.

The Conductor’s Prayers at Aqueduct and the Sunland Derby

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Exciting scene of horses racing at the Sunland Derby with jockeys in colorful silks and starting gate in the background.

The Conductor will never play Fair Grounds again. Sunland Derby time, Let’s Ride.

 

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. MC 20000

*Never a Doubt Sunday Night Scary Preventer But Not Really They Can’t Be Prevented Tonight Lock of the Day #3 Racing Raven (4/5) – Cutting back to a sprint, he obviously will beat this horrendous field.

Sunland Derby

Race 2: 6½ Furlongs. Clm 40000b

#3 Bootlegger (4/1) – 3rd off the layoff and dropping in class, he looks to be a new animal this year. His last two races give him every chance.

Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. S.Mdn 60k

#1 Holey Matrimony (9/2) – Debuting for a hot barn, this colt is well bred and working well.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 20000

#2 Give Me a Hug (3/1) – 2nd off the layoff and cutting back to a sprint this filly has been well bet vs much tougher.  Moreover, the Conductor needs a big hug after Vegas.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.OClm 75000

#6 Movie Score (5/1) – She was only beaten a length two starts back vs similar with a solid figure and Ryerson is 25% with a +$0.50 ROI this year 1st off the claim.

Race 6: 1 Mile. S.Mdn 60k

#6 Papa Jim (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff and stretching out for the 1st time he ran a very good 3rd last start with a tough trip.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. S.Alw 64000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Shamrock Kid (9/2) – He ran a huge fire last start in the slop. Additionally, he’s in good form and has a pace edge over this group. 9/2 would be stealing.

Sunland Derby

Race 8: 1 Mile. F.Alw 70000n1x

#8 Storm Rising (7/2) – She was bumped at the break and still demolished her competition in her debut. She has talent.

Race 9: 1 Mile. S.Clm 32000

#1 Oh K Funnybone (6/1) – He’s steadily progressing and stretching back out to a mile, where he has his lone win.

Sunland Park

Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. G3 Sunland Park Derby

#2 Anotherwistafate (3/1) – #1 Much Gusto (8/5) is clearly the Baffert horse to beat, but he’ll likely go off at 2/5 in here.  This colt shipping in from Golden Gate will likely go off higher than 3/1 and the Conductor will take a swing with him.  He’s won three in a row going away in gate to wire fashion in San Francisco.  For anyone who pays attention to Golden Gate, its impossible to go gate to wire. He has potential.