Tag: bob baffert

The Conductor’s New Years Day Plays at Santa Anita

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Horses racing out of the starting gate at Santa Anita Park with mountains in the background.

With the chaos at Santa Anita in 2019, the Conductor took his train elsewhere and his bottom line suffered. Barring more catastrophes at the track this year, the Conductor will turn his focus back to the Great Race Place and play there almost exclusively. The California circuit is where the Conductor is at his best and he needs to tighten his scope. Santa Anita will rue the day they let the Conductor walk back in through their gates. In 2020, there will be blood, Let’s Ride.

Race 3: 1 Mile. OC 62500n2x

#1 California Street (3/1) – Stretching out to a route for the 1st time 2nd off the layoff, this gelding has run against some classy runners in his last few. His bullet works entering today show the Conductor he’s ready to fire.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 25000

#7 Nomizar (4/1) – Drawn well to the outside, this filly can dictate her own trip and is working like a rocket ship.

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 40000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Kittyhawk Lass (8/1) – There looks to be a scorching pace up front in this one, so the Conductor is looking for a closer. This filly is steadily progressing and has a win at the distant. She’ll be finishing late.

santa anita

#8 Mulhima (20/1) – This filly is trying turf for the first time and the Conductor is intrigued that Prat takes the mount for a low % barn he rarely rides for. In his last two rides for trainer Anna Meah, he’s hit the board.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) G2 Joe Hernandez Stakes

#8 Grinning Tiger (15/1) – He can fly early and his sprint efforts on grass have been his best. His race two back over this turf course came back very fast.

Race 9: 1 Mile. Mdn 55k

#4 Snap Chap (5/1) – This 1.2-million-dollar colt will improve on the stretch out. The blinkers come off today and Mike Smith stays aboard.

#3 Don V. (15/1) – A price to include at least underneath. This colt is well bred to route and trainer David Hofmans can pop with 1st timers. He was 17% with a +$0.65 ROI last year with debut runners.

The Conductor’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Preview

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Jockey in bright attire celebrating on a horse with a group of people at a race track.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies time, Skip.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

#1 Donna Volce (3/1) – This group doesn’t have a heavy favorite and this girl may have the most upside. However, she is untested routing and will get heavy pace pressure at a short price.

*#2 Two Sixty (15/1) – In her first try routing last time, she was dominant and ran a very fast time for the distance. Normally, Gulfstream shippers running big numbers in restricted races will no be taken seriously by the Conductor, but at this price in an open race the Conductor is intrigued. He may mess around with her.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

#3 Perfect Alibi (10/1) – She doesn’t want to go this far.

#4 British Idiom (7/2) – This girl was visually impressive last time but had a perfect trip and didn’t run a huge number. She can win, but the Conductor doesn’t see a big step forward coming and she’ll be over bet.

#5 Lazy Daisy (12/1) – She can hit the board but can’t win.

#6 Bast (7/2) – Pressing a slow pace and barely gutting out a victory at 1/5 last time, this is another filly who will be over bet. A contender yes, but she’s no superstar.

*#7 Wicked Whisper (7/2)

Of the morning line favorites, she’s the one the Conductor likes best. She’s looked very professional in her two victories and has plenty more in the tank.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

#8 K P Dreamin (20/1) – She’s intriguing at a big price. The Conductor will use her underneath and if there is a pace meltdown, she has a punchers chance.

#9 Comical (8/1) – This filly returned to form last time after showing talent in the early summer. It’s a home game for connections and nothing would surprise the Conductor from her. She could finish 1st or last and the Conductor wouldn’t bat an eye. He’s leaning only using her underneath.

Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers at Santa Anita

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Horses racing at Santa Anita Park with jockeys in colorful silks and a scoreboard in the background, showcasing a competitive event.

It’s a rainy Sunday on the east coast, so the Conductor will take the train out west to Santa Anita. We need to get a feel for the track as well. The Breeders’ Cup is just five days away. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.Clm 25000n2L

#3 Bellazano (4/1) – The Conductor likes her quick return to the races and this girl’s incremental progression with each start.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 50000

#6 Tinne (5/2) – Drawn well to the outside with early speed, she looks to get a favorable trip under Prat.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 50k

#5 Auberge (2/1) – This Baffert filly is working like she’s the goods.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 50k

#2 K P All Systems Go (5/1) – This colt showed a very strong late kick in his debut, having to wait behind horses and closing into a slow pace. The Conductor would love that price.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 40000n1x

#1 Message (5/2) – This filly showed talent in her maiden breaker and is working well.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 32000

#2 Arch Anthem (6/1) – 1st off the claim for Baltas and Prat hops the board, the Conductor likes her switching back to the grass.

Race 7: 1 Mile. 75K Comma to the Top Stakes

#1 Oliver (7/2) – Winner of two in a row at Santa Anita, the Conductor likes this colt’s steady progression.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 80000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Reflect (12/1) – She showed talent on dirt as a two-year-old and ran well in her comeback race last start. She’ll step forward 2nd off the layoff and the Conductor will thinks she’ll take to the turf just fine.

santa anita

The Conductor’s Pennsylvania Derby Preview

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A racehorse with a jockey in vibrant attire galloping on a dirt track during a horse race, showcasing speed and athleticism.

The Pennsylvania Derby has drawn for Saturday and it is a hell of a race despite only 7 contenders. This is the best 3-year old race since the Derby and the winner will likely be the leader of the crop moving forward. Let’s see if the Conductor can help us passengers solve this puzzle.

#1 Math Wizard (8/1) – This colt is the only closer in the field and looks to get a nice trip with a hot pace in front of him. He will likely go off at a higher price and the Conductor can see him clunking up to get into the trifecta. He’s not good enough to win, but the Conductor thinks he’ll offer value underneath.

#2 Improbable (3/1) – This colt is very talented and was very impressive in his return to the races last time. His immaturity is still a concern, as he fought Van Dyke the entire first half of the Shared Belief Stakes. However, he still cut out hot fractions and won with ease. The Conductor doesn’t think we’ve seen the best of this boy yet and he’ll be one of the two runners he uses on top in this one.

#3 Shanghai Superfly (30/1) – The only runner with no business being in the race. Draw a line thru him and treat him as a scratch.

#4 War of Will (5/1)

The Conductor is against the Preakness winner in here and thinks he’s going in the wrong direction. To his credit he’s shown up in every big race, but his last two efforts have been disappointing. The Conductor thinks his campaign has taken his best out of him and you won’t find him anywhere on the Conductor’s tickets.

Pennsylvania Derby

#5 Spun to Run (8/1) – This Colt is steadily progressing, and the Conductor really liked his win last time in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx. He split horses nicely and the race came back very fast on paper.  It’s a very tough ask for him to beat this field, but the Conductor will use him underneath in the exacta and tri.

#6 Mr. Money (4/1) – The Conductor has been a fan of this colt since he won him a nice lump of gold in the Pat Day Mile at 7/1 on Derby Day. Since then, he’s done nothing but blow away his competition. He’s stepping up against the big boys today, but the Conductor thinks he can answer the bell. His last work at Churchill could not have looked better. He’s the other contender the Conductor will use on top.

#7 Maximum Security (9/5) – The Conductor’s nemesis Maximum Security. How many times will he try to beat this boy? Well, at least one more time in the Pennsylvania Derby. The Conductor thinks he’ll go off at an even shorter price and he will get a lot of pace pressure in here. The Conductor will use him in 2nd and 3rd because he’s not a complete idiot, but he’ll make him look him in the eye and beat him one more round. Let’s go big boy, the Conductor didn’t here no bell.

Justify Failed a Drug Test and It was Covered Up

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Trainer interacting with the racehorse Justify during a training session.

The story that has taken the horse racing world by storm in the last 24 hours is the New York Times article that dropped yesterday. Justify failed a drug test prior to winning the Kentucky Derby and eventually the Triple Crown in 2018: Article Here

Not a great PR year for horse racing. Justify tested positive for banned drugs in his win in the Santa Anita Derby. This should have resulted in disqualification and would have made him ineligible to participate in the Kentucky Derby. However, the California Horse Racing Board covered it up to protect Baffert and the potential Derby winner. That’s the gist.

To the outside world this scandal is shocking, but to those in tune with the horse racing industry like the Conductor, its the least surprising news all day. Read the story. The Chairman of the Board in charge of acting upon the failed drug test has ownership in Baffert’s horses. Justify’s breeding rights were then sold for 60 million after his Triple Crown run. That’s the horse racing industry in a nut shell.

Almost all of these super trainers are trying to get an edge and their success brings the owners loot, so they bury their heads in the sand. Its very similar to the steroid era in baseball, you have massive stables winning at ridiculous 30-40% rates and taking home all of the major stakes races. Just like McGuire, Sosa and random 2nd baseman hitting 50, 60, 70 HR’s in the late 90’s, it’s very hard to determine who is clean and who is not because the water is so muddied. The super horses and trainers attract mainstream media attention and gives a declining sport more dollars and eyeballs, so nobody running the sport says a word.

The Conductor is happy for this story to come out

The only way for changes to be made is for things like this to be exposed instead of swept under the rug like they have since the sport was invented. Horse Racing will always have a little slimy side and the Conductor doesn’t hate that, but the rampant drug use is bad for everyone. The owners, breeders, clean trainers, bettors and most importantly the horses all suffer.

This is the greatest gambling game in the world with the finest specimens competing and showing off their talent.  There plenty of good people in the industry and they need to make major changes if the sport is going to succeed moving forward. This negative story could actually be a step in the right direction.

Belmont picks for today will be up shortly

Justify

 

The Conductor’s Wednesday Preview at Del Mar

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A lively horse racing event featuring spectators enjoying the race, with horses racing on the track and a vibrant atmosphere.

Del Mar time, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 32000

#1 Juggles (5/2) – 2nd off the layoff, dropping in class and stretching out to a route, this colt has an early pace advantage over this field. Gate to wire.

Race 2: 1 Mile. F.Alw 12500s

#5 Road Test (3/1) – 1st off the claim and dropping in class, this mare is in good form her figures stand above this group’s.

Race 3: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) S.OC 40000n2x

#5 Red King (7/2) – He just missed at this level last start and his 3rd two starts back vs Grade 3 company makes him the one to beat in the Conductor’s eyes. 7/2 would be a great price on him.

Race 4: 5 ½ Furlongs. MC 50000

#10 Arouse and Go (6/1) – She was well bet in her debut and didn’t do much running. The Conductor will give her another chance now with experience, a weight break, and a better price.

Race 5: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 50000s

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Dunbow Road (8/1) – She was dominant in her maiden breaker last start at Del Mar and posted a bullet last work. Trainer Tim Yakteem is 16% with a +$0.32 ROI moving runners to grass for the 1st time this year.

Del Mar

Race 6: 1 Mile. Mdn 61k

*Atom Bomb Shot of the Day #6 Include The Tax (20/1) – 2nd off the layoff, this colt gets a weight break and ran a decent 4th last time. He stretches out for the 1st time today, which is trainer Michael McCarthy’s specialty. He’s 25% with a +$4.14 ROI this year with 1st time routers.

Del Mar

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.S.Generous Portion Stakes 100k

#5 Bulletproof One (4/5) – She’s obliterated every field she’s faced thus far and the Conductor doesn’t really like any of the contenders.

Race 8: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.MC 20000

#11 Trapani (8/1) – Drawn well to the outside, this race is wide open. This is trainer David Hofman’s specialty, he’s 25% with a +$2.20 ROI debuting maiden claimers this year.

The Conductor’s Travers Day Plays at Saratoga

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Group of racehorses with jockeys in colorful silks competing on a racetrack.

The time has come. The biggest day at the biggest meet. It’s put up or shut up time for the Conductor. Will Saratoga defeat him? Or will he come out on top? Only time will tell, but Toga best believe the Conductor is coming out swinging. Protect your neck in the Travers Toga, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) OC 62500n2x

#8 Lemonist (4/1) – Last time was too long for him and he still ran a good 2nd at this level. 3rd off the layoff and shortening to his preferred distance, the Conductor gives him a major chance to upset the chalk.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 90k

7 Onward (7/2) – Drawn well to the outside for strong connections, this boy is well bred and working well.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 90k

#5 New York Charmer (15/1) – Stretching out to a route and trying grass for the first time, this filly can drastically improve for top connections. She gets a rider upgrade and the Conductor will key her in the exacta and tri.

Race 4: 6½ Furlongs. Alw 92000n1x

#2 Dark N Cloudy (20/1) – He ran 2nd vs similar last start and has past performances above par for this level. He has good early speed and doesn’t need the lead to win. If he can sit just behind a hot pace, he’ll be very dangerous.

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. G1 Forego Stakes

#3 Mitole (4/5) – He was finally defeated last start after having a little trouble at the gate. The Conductor sees him rebounding today and putting on a show.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. F.G1 Ketel One Ballerina Stakes

#6 Minit to Stardom (8/1) – She’s become a new animal this year in the Camejo barn. She wired the field to upset the Honorable Miss last time and the Conductor sees her having a chance to do the same today.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. G1 H. Allen Jerkens Stakes

#1 Shancelot (1/2) – The Conductor wanted to take a shot against him from the rail, but his early pace edge looks too much for this group to handle.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 Woodford Reserve Ballston Spa Stakes

#7 Scottish Jig (10/1) – Shortening in distance, she’s the lone speed in the race. She’s a nice price and looks to get a favorable trip setting a slow pace. The Conductor will key her in the exacta and trifecta. This race is wide open on the win end.

Using ALL

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 Personal Ensign Stakes

#5 Wow Cat (5/1) – The Conductor will use this mare along with #4 Elate (7/5). She needed that last race off a long layoff, and this has been the goal for Chad all along. The Conductor sees her running back to her Breeders Cup Distaff effort, which will give her every chance.

The Conductor will TOSS #1 Midnight Bisou (6/5)

Race 10: 1½ Mile. (Inner Turf) Grade 1 Sword Dancer Stakes

#7 Annals of Time (5/2) – This Grade 1 winner was dominant last time and has the most talent in the field. The majority of the Conductor’s play will go through him.

Backups: #6 Ya Primo (7/2), #5 Pillar Mountain (10/1)

Race 11: 1 1/4 Mile. Travers G1 Runhappy Travers Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Mucho Gusto (6/1) – The Conductor’s Travers Preview

travers stakes

Race 12: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.OC 40000n2x

#11 Discretionary Marq (4/1) – Dropping out of open company, his early speed will put him in a great spot turning for home.

Race 13: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Mdn 90k

#1 Aymara (12/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she was favored last time and ran like a short horse. She has talent and the Conductor sees her running a big effort today.

Pacific Classic Day Late Pick 4 Preview at Del Mar

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A thrilling horse racing scene featuring multiple jockeys in colorful attire competing on a green racetrack during sunset.

Pacific Classic Day tomorrow at Del Mar with a nice late card sequence the Conductor will look to exploit. It will be a hell of a day of racing across the country.

Race 8: 1 Mile. F.G3 Torrey Pines Stakes

#1 Into Chocolate (10/1) – This filly has taken a step forward in each of her 3 starts and she ran huge after stumbling last time. She adds blinkers today and Mike Smith stays aboard, which is a great sign.

#4 Hollywood Hills (12/1) – In her 1st start on dirt last time she beat a formidable favorite, #6 Sneaking Out (7/2) on the square.  She also loves to win with 6 victories in 11 starts.

#7 Fighting Mad (5/2) – The Conductor must use this Baffert colt stretching out for the 1st time. He’s posting bullet works.

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.G1 Del Mar Oaks

*Never a Doubt Lock Chad Brown Leg Lock #1 Cambier Parc (5/2) – She looks like a clear standout to the Conductor and he will have the majority of his play going through her. Shipping in for Chad, her only 2 losses in her last 5 starts have come to Concrete Rose, who is the best filly in the country.

Pacific Classic

Backups: 4,5,7,13

Race 10: 1 ¼ Mile. G1 Pacific Classic

#5 Seeking the Soul (3/1) – This isn’t the saltiest Pacific Classic, but the Conductor sees this colt as a cut above the rest. He’s really matured and has run well against the likes of McKinzie and City of Light.

#8 Campaign (6/1) – The Conductor is going to fade #3 Pavel (7/2) and will use this colt as his only backup.  He’s in good form, steadily progressing and has the strongest late pace figures in the field.

Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 40000n1x

The Conductor will be spreading in the finale and he will not be using the M/L Favorite #8 Salsa Bella (7/2)

Using: 1,2,7,10,11

Whitney Stakes Day Plays at Saratoga

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Dynamic image of multiple racehorses competing on a dirt track, showcasing speed and athleticism in a thrilling horse race.

After a long day in all aspects of life, the Conductor had enough stew to kill an elephant last night. He can barely open his eyes this morning…..but that’s when he reads the form the best. Whitney Stakes Day, Let’s Ride.

 

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 90k

#1 Chimney Rock (8/1) – This colt ran well in his debut in a sprint rained off the turf. He is bred to be much better stretching out on the lawn like he is today.

Race 2: 1 1/8 Mile. Alw 92000n1x

#7 Uncle Sigh (6/1) – This old gelding is a warrior, exiting a troubled trip last time out he offers value today.

Race 3: 7 Furlongs. Mdn 90k

#2 Dubai Bobby (8/1) – The Conductor bet this boy in his debut and he ran a decent closing 3rd. He should appreciate the added furlong and trainer Jonathan Thomas is 29% with a +$0.19 ROI switching horses from turf to dirt this year.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) Clm 45000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Siding Spring (8/1) – Dropping in class and shipping in from Woodbine, he’s faced much tougher recently. Woodbine shippers have been running well on the lawn at toga.

whitney stakes

Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) G3 Troy Stakes

#1 World of Trouble (3/5) – He’s a monster.

Race 6: 6½ Furlongs. Mdn 90k

#4 Westport (12/1) – Previously trained by Baffert, he ran a dud in his debut but was well bet. Now in the Servis barn, the Conductor will bet he runs off the screen.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Lure Stakes 100K

#8 Ticonderoga (4/1) – Dropping out of G3 company, he ran a thunderous late pace figure closing into a slow pace last start. The Conductor has always liked his finish.

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. F.G1 Test Stakes

#2 Bellafina (2/1) – The Conductor sees her as a cut above these fillies.

Race 9: 1 ¼ Mile. G1 Whitney Stakes

*Feature Double Barreled Favorite Beater #4 Thunder Snow (3/1) – The Conductor will use two horses in the feature to try and beat the favorite #6 Mckinzie (7/5). Mckinzie is ultra-talented, but he must prove to the Conductor he can win a race of this caliber going this far at a short price. Thunder Snow is tough as nails and one of the Conductor’s favorite horses in training.

#8 Preservationist (3/1) – Improving with every start and added distance, his win in the Grade 2 Suburban last time against a good horse in Catholic Boy gained the Conductor’s attention.

whitney stakes

***Thunder Snow Has Scratched, All Aboard #8 Preservationist

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.De La Rose Stakes 100K

#5 Rock My Love (9/2) – Dropping out of Grade 2 stakes company where she ran well, the Conductor sees her taking a big step forward in her 2nd start off a long layoff.

Race 11: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.Alw 80000n1x

#6 Brockmoninoff (8/1) – Coming in off a long layoff, he broke his maiden impressively at Saratoga last year at this distance. George Weaver will break through at the Spa soon.

The Conductor’s Wednesday Preview at Del Mar

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Group of fashionable women wearing elegant dresses and large decorative hats at an outdoor event, showcasing vibrant styles and accessories.

Del Mar time, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 40000

#2 So Much Happy (8/1) – She set a scorching pace last time and is cutting back to a sprint and switching back to dirt. Her early pace figures make her dangerous, she was able to get the lead vs maidens in her debut as well.

Race 2: 1 Mile. Mdn 61k

#7 C Falls (4/1) – Making his 3rd career start, he took a nice step forward last time. With natural progression the Conductor likes his chances.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. Alw 50000s

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Big Barrel (8/1) – He took a big step forward at Del Mar last start, but the Conductor doesn’t think it was a fluke. He showed ability last year and the Conductor sees it natural progression. He gets a weight break against this group as well.

Del Mar

Race 4: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.S.Mdn 61k

#5 Beyonce (5/1) – Her last two works have been bullets for solid connections. She looks ready to roll. Slay Queen Slay.

Del Mar

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Clm 25000

#1 My Aunt Tillie (6/1) – This mare is returning off a long layoff, but trainer Myke Puype brings them back ready and she’s run well fresh before. If she runs her race she’ll have every chance and Van Dyke taking the mount is a good sign.

Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.S.CTBAB Stakes 100k

*Never a Doubt Lock of the Card #7 Cholula Lips (2/1) – If she runs her last race vs tougher at Churchill, it will tough for the others beat to jump up and beat her, let alone if she takes a step forward. Her works leading into today suggest she’s ready to run.

Del Mar

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 50000s

#9 Honos Man (6/1) – Shipping in from Churchill after a nice win last start, the Kentucky invaders have run well on the turf this meet. The Conductor will load up the caboose if we get that price.