Ponies

Esophagus Slice Saturday: The Conductor’s Plays at Santa Anita

We couldn’t finish the double yesterday and another poor card at Santa Anita today with small fields. The Conductor doesn’t have many strong opinions, so he’ll pick his spots today. Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 1 Mile. G3 Sham Stakes

#1 Authentic (8/5) – This colt was all the buzz at Del Mar this summer and won nicely in his debut. He’s working well leading into today.

Race 9: 6½ Furlongs. OC 40000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Truck Salesman (4/1) – He’s run big in his last two dirt sprints and has an early pace edge over this field. He’ll get to the front and will be very tough to pass.

Price to Include: #6 Sigalert (8/1)

Save War GIF by vanmoof

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Ponies

Wind Pipe Whack Wednesday: The Conductor’s New Years Day Plays at Santa Anita

With the chaos at Santa Anita in 2019, the Conductor took his train elsewhere and his bottom line suffered. Barring more catastrophes at the track this year, the Conductor will turn his focus back to the Great Race Place and play there almost exclusively. The California circuit is where the Conductor is at his best and he needs to tighten his scope. Santa Anita will rue the day they let the Conductor walk back in through their gates. In 2020, there will be blood, Let’s Ride.

Race 3: 1 Mile. OC 62500n2x

#1 California Street (3/1) – Stretching out to a route for the 1st time 2nd off the layoff, this gelding has run against some classy runners in his last few. His bullet works entering today show the Conductor he’s ready to fire.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 25000

#7 Nomizar (4/1) – Drawn well to the outside, this filly can dictate her own trip and is working like a rocket ship.

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 40000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Kittyhawk Lass (8/1) – There looks to be a scorching pace up front in this one, so the Conductor is looking for a closer. This filly is steadily progressing and has a win at the distant. She’ll be finishing late.

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#8 Mulhima (20/1) – This filly is trying turf for the first time and the Conductor is intrigued that Prat takes the mount for a low % barn he rarely rides for. In his last two rides for trainer Anna Meah, he’s hit the board.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) G2 Joe Hernandez Stakes

#8 Grinning Tiger (15/1) – He can fly early and his sprint efforts on grass have been his best. His race two back over this turf course came back very fast.

Race 9: 1 Mile. Mdn 55k

#4 Snap Chap (5/1) – This 1.2-million-dollar colt will improve on the stretch out. The blinkers come off today and Mike Smith stays aboard.

#3 Don V. (15/1) – A price to include at least underneath. This colt is well bred to route and trainer David Hofmans can pop with 1st timers. He was 17% with a +$0.65 ROI last year with debut runners.

Ponies

Esophagus Slice Saturday: The Conductor’s Plays at Santa Anita

The Conductor loses every college football he get’s his paws on. Its a can’t lose today at the great race place, Let’s Ride

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. G2 San Antonio Stakes

*Never a Doubt Must Win Lock #2 Gift Box (9/5) – He’s had some time off and returns to his favorite track. He can’t lose here and he won’t.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. F.G1 La Brea Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Motion Emotion (15/1) – Cutting back to a sprint after pressing a hot pace routing last time, the Conductor thinks she can hit the board and has an outside shot at a major upset. She looks to get a nice stalking trip sitting behind the speed and will be running late.

punch throat GIF by The Art Of Self-Defense

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. G1 Malibu Stakes

#5 Omaha Beach (4/5) – With a nice outside draw, he’ll be in the winner’s circle.

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The Conductor’s Breeders’ Cup Classic Preview

Race 12: 1 1/2 Mile. G1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic

#4 War of Will (20/1) – Everyone else will toss this colt aside as his last few efforts have been sub-par. However, he has early speed in a race without much pace and has been working like a monster. The time off has done him well and if he comes back with his best he could surprise at a big number. He’ll be on the Conductor’s tickets.

#8 McKinzie (3/1) – TOSS. His last race was terrible, and the Conductor hasn’t liked his works entering today.

*#10 Vino Rosso (4/1) – He’s the Conductor’s win bet here. He looks to get a good trip forwardly placed and he’s turned into a different animal this year. The Jockey Club Gold Cup came back very fast on paper.

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#11 Code of Honor (4/1) – Also exiting the Gold Cup, this colt continues to improve and fire big efforts.

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The Conductor’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Preview

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. G1 TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

*#1 Dennis’ Moment (8/5) – He’s the one to beat plain and simple. He’s working like a monster by all accounts.

Dennis Rodman Falling GIF

#2 Wrecking Crew (20/1) – Stretching out for the first time, he’ll be a bomb and has upside. The Conductor will use him underneath while most wont.

#3 Shoplifted (20/1) – He’s not fast enough.

#4 Storm the Court (20/1) – It’s a home game for him with strong connections, maybe he can clunk up for 3rd.

*#5 Scabbard (8/1) – This colt is the price the Conductor thinks has a major chance. In his first time routing he steadied and lost all momentum going into the far turn and still came running at #1 Dennis’ Moment. If the #1 gets beat, this is the boy to do it.

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#6 Eight Rings (2/1) – The Bobo Baffert runner with all the hype, he is an obvious contender but the Conductor is slightly against him. He wasn’t impressed with his finish in the American Pharoah Stakes and will be heavily bet. He may get loose on the lead again however so the Conductor can’t be completely against him.

#7 Anneau d’Or (15/1) – This is asking a lot in his first dirt race.

#8 Full Flat (30/1) – No shot.

Ponies

The Conductor’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Preview

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

#1 Donna Volce (3/1) – This group doesn’t have a heavy favorite and this girl may have the most upside. However, she is untested routing and will get heavy pace pressure at a short price.

*#2 Two Sixty (15/1) – In her first try routing last time, she was dominant and ran a very fast time for the distance. Normally, Gulfstream shippers running big numbers in restricted races will no be taken seriously by the Conductor, but at this price in an open race the Conductor is intrigued. He may mess around with her.

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#3 Perfect Alibi (10/1) – She doesn’t want to go this far.

#4 British Idiom (7/2) – This girl was visually impressive last time but had a perfect trip and didn’t run a huge number. She can win, but the Conductor doesn’t see a big step forward coming and she’ll be over bet.

#5 Lazy Daisy (12/1) – She can hit the board but can’t win.

#6 Bast (7/2) – Pressing a slow pace and barely gutting out a victory at 1/5 last time, this is another filly who will be over bet. A contender yes, but she’s no superstar.

*#7 Wicked Whisper (7/2) – Of the morning line favorites, she’s the one the Conductor likes best. She’s looked very professional in her two victories and has plenty more in the tank.

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#8 K P Dreamin (20/1) – She’s intriguing at a big price. The Conductor will use her underneath and if there is a pace meltdown, she has a punchers chance.

#9 Comical (8/1) – This filly returned to form last time after showing talent in the early summer. It’s a home game for connections and nothing would surprise the Conductor from her. She could finish 1st or last and the Conductor wouldn’t bat an eye. He’s leaning only using her underneath.

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Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers at Santa Anita

It’s a rainy Sunday on the east coast, so the Conductor will take the train out west to Santa Anita. We need to get a feel for the track as well. The Breeders’ Cup is just five days away. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.Clm 25000n2L

#3 Bellazano (4/1) – The Conductor likes her quick return to the races and this girl’s incremental progression with each start.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 50000

#6 Tinne (5/2) – Drawn well to the outside with early speed, she looks to get a favorable trip under Prat.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 50k

#5 Auberge (2/1) – This Baffert filly is working like she’s the goods.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 50k

#2 K P All Systems Go (5/1) – This colt showed a very strong late kick in his debut, having to wait behind horses and closing into a slow pace. The Conductor would love that price.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 40000n1x

#1 Message (5/2) – This filly showed talent in her maiden breaker and is working well.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 32000

#2 Arch Anthem (6/1) – 1st off the claim for Baltas and Prat hops the board, the Conductor likes her switching back to the grass.

Race 7: 1 Mile. 75K Comma to the Top Stakes

#1 Oliver (7/2) – Winner of two in a row, the Conductor likes this colt’s steady progression.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 80000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Reflect (12/1) – She showed talent on dirt as a two-year-old and ran well in her comeback race last start. She’ll step forward 2nd off the layoff and the Conductor will thinks she’ll take to the turf just fine.

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The Conductor’s Pennsylvania Derby Preview

The Pennsylvania Derby has drawn for Saturday and it is a hell of a race despite only 7 contenders. This is the best 3-year old race since the Derby and the winner will likely be the leader of the crop moving forward. Let’s see if the Conductor can help us passengers solve this puzzle.

#1 Math Wizard (8/1) – This colt is the only closer in the field and looks to get a nice trip with a hot pace in front of him. He will likely go off at a higher price and the Conductor can see him clunking up to get into the trifecta. He’s not good enough to win, but the Conductor thinks he’ll offer value underneath.

#2 Improbable (3/1) – This colt is very talented and was very impressive in his return to the races last time. His immaturity is still a concern, as he fought Van Dyke the entire first half of the Shared Belief Stakes. However, he still cut out hot fractions and won with ease. The Conductor doesn’t think we’ve seen the best of this boy yet and he’ll be one of the two runners he uses on top in this one.

#3 Shanghai Superfly (30/1) – The only runner with no business being in the race. Draw a line thru him and treat him as a scratch.

#4 War of Will (5/1) – The Conductor is against the Preakness winner in here and thinks he’s going in the wrong direction. To his credit he’s shown up in every big race, but his last two efforts have been disappointing. The Conductor thinks his campaign has taken his best out of him and you won’t find him anywhere on the Conductor’s tickets.

#5 Spun to Run (8/1) – This Colt is steadily progressing, and the Conductor really liked his win last time in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx. He split horses nicely and the race came back very fast on paper.  It’s a very tough ask for him to beat this field, but the Conductor will use him underneath in the exacta and tri.

#6 Mr. Money (4/1) – The Conductor has been a fan of this colt since he won him a nice lump of gold in the Pat Day Mile at 7/1 on Derby Day. Since then, he’s done nothing but blow away his competition. He’s stepping up against the big boys today, but the Conductor thinks he can answer the bell. His last work at Churchill could not have looked better. He’s the other contender the Conductor will use on top.

#7 Maximum Security (9/5) – The Conductor’s nemesis Maximum Security. How many times will he try to beat this boy? Well, at least one more time. The Conductor thinks he’ll go off at an even shorter price and he will get a lot of pace pressure in here. The Conductor will use him in 2nd and 3rd because he’s not a complete idiot, but he’ll make him look him in the eye and beat him one more round. Let’s go big boy, the Conductor didn’t here no bell.

 

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The Conductor’s Take on Justify’s Failed Drug Test and The Cover Up

The story that has taken the horse racing world by storm in the last 24 hours is the New York Times article that dropped yesterday, citing that Justify failed a drug test prior to winning the Kentucky Derby and eventually the Triple Crown in 2018: Article Here

Not a great PR year for horse racing. Justify tested positive for banned drugs in his win in the Santa Anita Derby, which should have resulted in disqualification and would have made him ineligible to participate in the Kentucky Derby. However, the California Horse Racing Board covered it up to protect Baffert and the potential Derby winner – That’s the gist.

To the outside world this scandal is shocking, but to those in tune with the horse racing industry like the Conductor, its the least surprising news all day. Read the story. The Chairman of the Board in charge of acting upon the failed drug test has ownership in Baffert’s horses. Justify’s breeding rights were then sold for 60 million after his Triple Crown run. That’s the horse racing industry in a nut shell.

Almost all of these super trainers are trying to get an edge and their success brings the owners loot, so they turn a blind eye. Its very similar to the steroid era in baseball, you have massive stables winning at ridiculous 30-40% rates and taking home all of the major stakes races. Just like McGuire, Sosa and random 2nd baseman hitting 50, 60, 70 HR’s in the late 90’s, it’s very hard to determine who is clean and who is not because the water is so muddied. The super horses and trainers attract mainstream media attention and gives a declining sport more dollars and eyeballs, so nobody running the sport says a word.

The Conductor is happy for this story to come out. The only way for changes to be made is for things like this to be exposed instead of swept under the rug like they have since the sport was invented. Horse Racing will always have a little slimy side and the Conductor doesn’t hate that, but the rampant drug use is bad for everyone. The owners, breeders, clean trainers, bettors and most importantly the horses all suffer.

This is the greatest gambling game in the world with the finest specimens competing and showing off their talent.  There plenty of good people in the industry and they need to make major changes if the sport is going to succeed moving forward. This negative story could actually be a step in the right direction.

Belmont picks for today will be up shortly

 

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The Conductor’s Wednesday Preview at Del Mar

Race 1: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 32000

#1 Juggles (5/2) – 2nd off the layoff, dropping in class and stretching out to a route, this colt has an early pace advantage over this field. Gate to wire.

Race 2: 1 Mile. F.Alw 12500s

#5 Road Test (3/1) – 1st off the claim and dropping in class, this mare is in good form her figures stand above this group’s.

Race 3: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) S.OC 40000n2x

#5 Red King (7/2) – He just missed at this level last start and his 3rd two starts back vs Grade 3 company makes him the one to beat in the Conductor’s eyes. 7/2 would be a great price on him.

Race 4: 5 ½ Furlongs. MC 50000

#10 Arouse and Go (6/1) – She was well bet in her debut and didn’t do much running. The Conductor will give her another chance now with experience, a weight break, and a better price.

Race 5: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 50000s

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Dunbow Road (8/1) – She was dominant in her maiden breaker last start and posted a bullet last work. Trainer Tim Yakteem is 16% with a +$0.32 ROI moving runners to grass for the 1st time this year.

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Race 6: 1 Mile. Mdn 61k

*Atom Bomb Shot of the Day #6 Include The Tax (20/1) – 2nd off the layoff, this colt gets a weight break and ran a decent 4th last time. He stretches out for the 1st time today, which is trainer Michael McCarthy’s specialty. He’s 25% with a +$4.14 ROI this year with 1st time routers.

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Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.S.Generous Portion Stakes 100k

#5 Bulletproof One (4/5) – She’s obliterated every field she’s faced thus far and the Conductor doesn’t really like any of the contenders.

Race 8: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.MC 20000

#11 Trapani (8/1) – Drawn well to the outside, this race is wide open. This is trainer David Hofman’s specialty, he’s 25% with a +$2.20 ROI debuting maiden claimers this year.