Tag: breeders cup

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Breakdown

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Racehorse Tamarkuz with jockey in blue silks competing in a race at Breeders' Cup.

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile time, Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 1 Mile. Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

The two favorites look tough to beat in here for the Conductor.  He’ll shorten up in this leg, but he has a mammoth price he likes underneath.

#1 City of Light (5/2) – He’s won sprinting and going 1 1/8 mile and his figures stand above all but one of these other runners.  His last race off a layoff in the Forego looks like a perfect setup race for this spot. He also has enough early speed to put himself in a good spot. The rail draw won’t be a problem.

*Underneath Uppercut to the Chin #2 Trigger Warning (20/1) – This colt ran 3rd behind Mckinzie in his last start, who will vie for favoritism in the BC Cllassic.  He is finally cutting back in distance, which he desperately needed, and he should get a hot pace to run at.  The Conductor will use him underneath to try and spice up the trifecta.

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

#6 Seeking the Soul (5/1) – A mile is his best distance and Churchill Downs is his favorite track.  He’s the only horse in the field that has a chance to upset the top 2.  He looks to be ready to run a peak effort in his third start off the layoff.

*Top Pick #10 Catalina Cruiser (8/5) – He’s yet to be tested in his young career and many are questioning John Sadler’s poor record outside of California. However, his figures stand over this group.  He is extremely talented and his win going two turns in the San Diego H. made the Conductor a believer.

Top Picks: 10-1-6-2

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint Breakdown

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Thoroughbred racehorse Stormy Liberal with jockey in blue silks racing on a turf track.

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint time, Let’s Ride.

Race 4: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

This is one of the biggest spread races on the card for the Conductor, chaos will likely ensue.

#1 Ruby Notion (20/1) – A winner of two in a row, her win two starts back was the fastest on soft turf in this field.  That’s the ground she’ll get on Saturday and this race is wide open.  The rail is an obvious concern, but at the price she’ll be she’s a must use.

#5 Disco Partner (7/2) – He hasn’t run his best on soft ground, but there was a little cut in the ground last time out at Belmont and he won like a good thing.  He’s the class of the field and the Conductor won’t let him knock him out.

#7 Lost Treasure (20/1) – He’s a young boy shipping over from Ireland. However, he’s battle tested, proven over a yielding turf course and gets Lasix for the first time.  The Conductor won’t let the O’brien/Moore combo beat him.

*Top Pick and Gullet Shot #8 Chanteline (15/1) – A winner of 3 of her last 4, this mare is in career form. Additionally, she ran a monster race over the soft turf behind Ruby Notion a few starts back.  She’s drawn a favorable post, working well and the Conductor is looking his chops.

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

#11 World of Trouble (6/1) – He’s run big figures on dirt, but he’s run even bigger on turf in his last two starts. His win at Belmont last start over good turf was jaw dropping. Moving forward, he could be unstoppable on his newfound preferred surface.

Top Picks: 8-11-5-1-7

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint Breakdown

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Three thoroughbred horses competing in a race with jockeys in colorful silks on a dirt track.

With Friday’s card locked up and victory guaranteed, the Conductor will give us his keys to Saturday’s races.  This is truly the best two days of the year and the Conductor is giving us the answers to the test before we take it.  The train is en route to Louisville, sleep with one eye open Churchill, Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint time.

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

Race 3: 7 Furlongs. G1 F.Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

The Conductor thinks the favorites are vulnerable in here and has found us a couple of big prices have big chances.  This is his favorite type of race.

#1 Selcourt (4/1) – She ran by far the fastest figure in this field in her last start and has turned into a monster as a 3-year-old.  However, drawing the rail and not having run in 7 months would be a lot to overcome and win a Breeders’ Cup sprint.  The Conductor will only use her defensively.

*Gullet Slit #5 Golden Mischief (10/1) – Winning at Keeneland off the layoff last start, she looked dead in the water on the turn and somehow managed to win.  With a step forward off that start she will be tough to beat, and she should get a perfect trip sitting off a hot pace.  This mare has won races all over the country including this surface, you can’t leave him off your tickets.

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

*Gullet Slit #11 Finley’sluckycharm (10/1) – She ran a dud last race at Saratoga, but she has multiple past performances that would trounce this field.  She’s a gaudy 6/7 lifetime at Churchill Downs and her work tab looks like she’s back to her old self.  If she runs her best, she wins.

*Top Pick #13 Marley’s Freedom (8/5) – A winner of her last 4 starts, she is clearly the one to beat.  She should get a good trip sitting just off a hot pace and her works coming in look outstanding as well.  She’ll probably win for Baffert, but her speed figures don’t stand out on the Conductor’s numbers enough to make her a cinch.  She can be beat on Saturday.

Top Picks: 13-11-5-1

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Breakdown

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Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile time, Let’s Ride.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. G1 Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

This race is being hyped as a classic East Coast vs West Coast showdown.   It’s a tail as old as time as the two heavy favorites meet in the middle to decide the score.  The problem for the bettors in this one is that neither of them of them are going to win.  The East Coast will win this battle, but it’s not the horse all the mortals think.

#5 Well Defined (20/1) – The Conductor thinks this boy is a very sneaky longshot, who can hit the board in this one.  He went wire to wire setting a slow pace last time at Gulfstream Park, but the Conductor’s figures don’t lie, and he’s run back two back very good ones.  If he can sit behind horses, he’ll finish strongly and Mike Smith hops aboard, which is very intriguing.

#6 Complexity (5/2) – The East Coast favorite, who has been extremely impressive, winning in gate to wire fashion in his first two starts.  The Conductor likes him a lot, but the added distance and other front-runners in here don’t make him a cinch.

#9 Game Winner (8/5) – This is the Bob Baffert type West Coast shipper that seems to win every big race.  Additionally, he’s proven he can pass horses and should get a perfect trip sitting just behind the leaders.  The Conductor thinks he has a slight edge over complexity.

*Top Pick and Gullet Slit #11 Code of Honor (5/1)

This is the colt the Conductor is most excited about on Friday.  He ran behind #6 Complexity in his last start, but he stumbled badly out of the gate.  The Conductor thought it was a monster effort to close from last while the pace wasn’t that hot.  Complexity will face more early pressure in this race and the added distance favors Code of Honor. He’s also bred to route and the Conductor envisions him running them all down in the stretch.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Top Picks: 11-9-6-5

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Breakdown

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Racehorse Mendelssohn with jockey in purple and white silks racing on a turf track.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf time, Let’s Ride.

Keeneland Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) – G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

This is the hardest race on Friday’s card and almost everyone has a shot. However, fear not, the Conductor has the 14-horse field narrowed down to only 5 that can win. Moreover, he likes a few juicy prices.  If Churchill isn’t careful, the Conductor can have it begging for mercy.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

*Gullet Shot #2 Uncle Benny (15/1) – This Servis trainee was hung 8 wide and closed like a rocket to win her last start. Furthermore, this was after breaking her maiden going gate to wire on dirt.  Versatility is key and he shouldn’t have any problem stretching out.  The Conductor won’t be surprised by this upset.

#4 Forty Under (5/1) – The Pilgrim was the fastest American prep race on the Conductor’s numbers and this boy was best.  The course was yielding that day and there will also be cut in the ground on Friday . He’s improving, and should sit a nice trip a few lengths off the lead.

#5 Line of Duty (10/1) – This colt is shipping in from France after wins at a mile and 1 1/8 mile.  He’s also proven over a soft turf course and adds Lasix for the first time.  The Conductor likes his steady progression and thinks he’s poised to run a new top effort.

*Top Pick and Gullet Slit #7 Somelikeithotbrown (12/1)

He’s been ignored in the Breeders’ Cup build up. Additionally, the Conductor hopes they ignore him at the windows too.  He set a very fast pace in the Pilgrim and was only beaten ¾ of a length by #4 Forty Under that day.  If you like Forty Under in this race you must like Somelikeithotbrown more. The Conductor will argue he should be a shorter price.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

#14 Anthony Van Dyck (4/1) – He’s the class of the field running bang up races against much tougher in Europe.  Although, the Conductor can’t rely on him with his brutal post position.  Maybe he’s talented enough to overcome a wide trip and Ryan Moore can certainly work some magic.  The Conductor must use him defensively.

Top Picks 7-2-4-14-5

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Breakdown

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Two racehorses competing on a dirt track, one in pink and the other in blue, showcasing speed and athleticism during a horse race.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies time, Let’s Ride.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G1 Tito’s Handmade Vodka Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

MMMmmmmmmmm Tito’s…… the Conductor loves his Tito’s stew when he’s capping in the lab.  The key to this race is going to be the pace.  It will be scorching, and a late runner may be able to shock the world.  The Conductor thinks there are only three winning contenders and one is a bomb.

Winning Contenders:

#2 Serengeti Empress (7/2) – She’s the only frontrunner who hasn’t proven they can sit and pass horses that the Conductor likes in here.  However, when you’re coming off a 16-length victory without even trying, the Conductor can’t ignore you.  You don’t see horses win like that very often, especially at Churchill Downs, she could be something special.

*Top Pick and Gullet Shot #8 Sippican Harbor (12/1) – This is the price horse the Conductor is licking his chops for in this one.  After his blowout frontrunning win to break his maiden, he closed from last to win with ease.  The Conductor loves that versatility and although he got a favorable setup that day, he should get an even better one on Friday.  He can sit back and make one run while the frontrunners will have wobbly knees in the stretch.

breeders cup juvenile fillies

#10 Bellafina (2/1) – Shipping in from the west coast, she looks like a standout on numbers to the Conductor.  She’s pressed hot paces and hasn’t wavered at all down the stretch.  The post position is the concern as she may have to go too quick early to prevent getting hung out wide.  If Prat can navigate a a good trip for her, she’ll be tough to beat.

Top Picks: 8-10-2

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Breakdown

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Racehorse named Blessing Bait running on turf during a horse race with jockey in colorful attire.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf time. Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

This race is more top heavy and less wide open in the Conductor’s view.  The favorites look extremely tough to beat, but the Conductor isn’t going to single the heavy favorite, there is another filly a with major potential.

Race Win Contenders:

*Top Pick #4 Just Wonderful (6/1) – This is the European shipper the Conductor thinks has a big shot to beat the American favorite.  In her last race in New Market, she showed a thunderous kick after having some traffic trouble.  She gets Lasix for the first time, is steadily improving and has top connections.  She has a major shot.

#6 Newspaperofrecord (2/1) – She’s the filly getting the most buzz around Kentucky as she enters the big weekend as one of the most likely winners.  There is nothing not to like about her first two blowout scores, where she looks like the real deal.  She’ll be very tough to beat, but a baby stubbing her toe in a 14-horse-field has happened many times before and Just Wonderful has much more experience against tougher competition.

Underneath Prices:

#2 The Mackem Bullet (15/1) – The Conductor doesn’t think any of the other American runners are any good in here besides #1 Concrete Rose at 6/1. However, there are a few runners from across the pond with ability.  This filly keeps getting ignored at the windows in England and continues to run bang up races. She’s just missed twice against Fairyland, who would be one of the favorites in here.  Additionally she is 6/6 hitting the board in her career.

#14 East (20/1) – She gets a brutal draw from the 14-hole, but that will ensure her price will be high.  She’s 2/2 in her young career and has been very visually impressive in both starts.  She has enough early speed to prevent being hung wide into the first turn. If that is indeed the case, then she can light up the tote board.

Absolutely No Shot:

#11 Lady Prancelot

The Conductor will not forgive her for not getting by a 35/1 shot last start.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint Breakdown

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A jockey in purple silks atop a horse adorned with flowers after a race.

0-4 yesterday at Parx was gross, but the posts are drawn for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and the Conductor doesn’t have time for that.  His eyes are weary from watching all the tape, but he is giddy with excitement as the opportunity to make life changing scores for his passengers presents itself.  He doesn’t need the money after countless pick 6 gullet shots at Breeders’ Cups gone by, but he cares deeply about all of us. The best ponies from across the globe are all in Louisville this weekend for their shot at eternal glory.  Full race breakdowns for all Championship races will be posted today and tomorrow to get the passengers prepped for Friday and Saturday. Let’s Ride.

Friday’s Breeders’ Cup Pick 5

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

The Europeans targeted this one and this looks like a very competitive group overall.  Babies sprinting on turf is always prone to chaos and there aren’t any standouts.  The Conductor must help us sort this one out.

The Contenders:

#1 Strike Silver (4/1) – You won’t see a more electric win than his victory last start in the Summer Stakes at Keeneland.  It was so jaw dropping that the Conductor called him a her:

He was slammed hard at the break and came from the clouds to get up in the final strides.  He’s shown he is versatile on turf and dirt, winning with different running styles. Strike Silver has also overcome trouble in his young career, proving he has loads of talent.  He’s a major contender and a must use for the conductor. The only concern is the poor post draw.

*Top Pick #2 Soldier’s Call (9/2) – He is the top European contender in this field and colts don’t do what he did last start very often.  As a 2-year-old he took on the best adult sprinters in Europe in the G1 Prix de l’Abbaye and was barely beaten a neck.  He adds Lasix today and has the potential to be an absolute freak.

*Gullet Shot #4 Stillwater Cove (20/1) – She’ll be the Conductor’s key in the race at a nice juicy number.  Last start in the G1 Natalma Stakes she made a strong early move into a hot pace. She rightfully faded late and she was also going a mile. The Conductor loves the cutback in distance. She showed the ability to pass horses and win two starts back. She should get a perfect setup in this race and has as good a chance as any.

#10 So Perfect (12/1) – The “other” Aidan O’Brian Shipper is another filly that the Conductor believes has a big chance.  In 6 career starts she’s never been over a length behind the winner.  She’ll be a bigger price with jockey Ryan Moore choosing to ride #8 Sergei Prokofiev (6/1), but So Perfect beat him by 5 lengths when they squared off in the G1 Keeneland Phoenix.  Give the Conductor double the number, He dares you.

breeders' cup juvenile turf sprint

Vital Breeders Cup Announcement And Monday’s Punts at Parx

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Horses and jockeys at the starting gate during a race at Parx Racing in Pennsylvania.

The Conductor was buried underneath Breeders Cup PPs yesterday in preparation for the upcoming weekend.  He will have full breakdowns of each race coming this week, so you passengers keep your eyes peeled.  In the meantime, the Conductor will still share a few winners with you to build up your bankroll for the best two days in racing.  What a selfless man.  It’s almost here, full fields, the best of the best facing off, the Conductor can feel the tension in his plumbs.  Let’s start this week off right, off to Parx we go, Let’s ride.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 7500n3L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Queen Fantabulous (8/1) – She made an early move into a scorching pace last start and faded late.  She is one of the very few runners in here with past figures above par for this level and her early speed makes her very dangerous.  With only one other speed horse in this group she should get a favorable trip on or near the lead.

Parx

Race 6: 1 Mile. Clm 12500n2L

*Never a Doubt Breeders Cup Bankroll Lock of the Day #1 Glass Bridge (4/1) – The #4 Industrial Logic (9/5) is the one to beat in here, however, this gelding is the only other contender with a chance.  He’s had two poor efforts on a sloppy track and turf. He’ll get back to a fast dirt track today an His Parx dirt form is solid. He’s taking a big class drop and his work tab suggests he’s rounding into form.  The Conductor loves him.

Parx

Race 7: 1m70yds. Alw 12500s

#8 We B Jammin (15/1) – With the scratches at Parx, he’ll be nowhere near 15/1, but he’ll still likely be the third choice in the betting.  That’s pretty good for a hoarse coming off a 15-length victory.  He’s a speedball that will go guns blazing to the front and hold on for dear life.  Hold on big boy, one time.

Race 8: 1 Mile. F. Clm 16000

#4 Awesome Singer (20/1) – She has past performances above par at this level. That’s good enough for the Conductor at the price she’ll be.  There aren’t any world beaters in here and she’ll be right there at the wire if she shows up.