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Esophagus Slice Saturday: The Conductor’s Late Pick 4 Plays at Belmont Park and Churchill Downs

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor sucked yesterday at Churchill, not what we wanted heading into the weekend. However, we have nice weather today and a chance to make some scores. The Conductor will focus his attention on the late pick 4’s in Louisville and Belmont. Let’s Ride.

Belmont Park Late Pick 4

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 50000s

This is a spread race for the Conductor, but he’s going to TOSS the morning line favorite #10 Xanthique (5/2) drawn to the far outside.

He’ll use #1 Tizaprincessa (8/1), #4 Sun Summers (7/2), #6 Cockstrikestwelve (6/1), #7 Zandora (8/1), and #9 the Nine O (4/1).

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. S.Alw 66000n1x

#7 The Big Lebanese (5/1) – Cutting back to a sprint, he looks to get a perfect trip today with plenty of speed to run at.  He hasn’t gotten the setup in his prior sprints.

The Conductor will also use #5 Elios Milos (2/1) and #9 Smokin Platinum (3/1).

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.100K Wild Applause Stakes

#4 Nova Sol (5/2) – 2nd off the layoff, she ran very well last start in the Hilltop after a troubled trip. Chad Brown will in this race.

The Conductor will also use #6 Blowout (2/1)

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) S.MC 40000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Hudson Overpass (12/1) – He split the field vs tougher in his debut and ran sneaky well last time at this level. He dueled, setting a hot pace early and was only beaten 3 ½ lengths even though he finished 10th.

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The Conductor will also use #3 Blue Parrot (10/1), #6 Champagne Chiils (4/1) and #7 Jack the Cat (6/1).

Churchill Downs Late Pick 4

Race 8: 1 Mile. F.OC 80000b

#7 In the Mood (6/1) – She ran a very good 2nd last time setting a hot at this level. She’s working even better leading in to today.

The Conductor will also use #2 Clever Serve (5/1) and #3 Devine Queen (7/2).

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

#2 Altito (30/1) – He’s an absolute bomb the Conductor will use and key in the trifecta. He’s a proven winner on dirt and ran a solid 4th closing into a slow pace last time. He hasn’t had many chances on turf, but his race at Kentucky downs last fall makes him competitive in here.

The Conductor will also use #4 Cowboy Culture (6/1), #6 Dontblamerocket (4/1) and #8 Keep Quiet (5/2).

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.Roxelana Overnight Stakes

*Never a Doubt Summer Saturday Night Lock of the Day #2 Covfefe (7/5) – The Conductor will toss #10 Mia Mischeif (8/5) and won’t use any backups in this race. This girl put on an absolute show down at Pimlico last start.  She’s the goods.

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Race 11: 6½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 95k

#3 Double Axel (3/1) – She ran a hard charging 2nd after a slow start in her debut. Her recent works suggest she’ll graduate today.

#11 Risky Mandate (5/1) – Is the only backup the Conductor will use.

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Ponies

Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

The Conductor's Scribe

Decent day at Belmont yesterday, a few short-priced winners including the lock of the day and a couple of decent prices running 2nd.  Looks like off the turf and smaller fields again which is annoying, but we play the hand we’re dealt.  Let’s ride.

Race 1: 1 Mile. S.Clm 25000

#1 Blame the Theif (5/1) – Whenever he drops in for a tag, he wins. He also looks to get a favorable trip up close to a slow pace.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 12500

#4 Willdcat Belle (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff and dropping in class, her early pace figs give her an advantage over this field. She can clear to front and dictate the race.

Race 3: 1 Mile. 80k

#1 Sagaponack (7/2) – This colt went for a cool 1 Milly at the Keeneland sale and is working like he’s the goods.

Race 4: 1 Mile. F.S.Alw 66000n1x

#6 My Last Million (7/2) – 2nd off the layoff, this filly is stretching out to her best distance and Rosario hops aboard.

Race 5: 5 Furlongs. (OFF Turf) F.Mdn 80k

#6 Morality Cause (9/2) – The Conductor liked her debut, closing for a good 3rd after trouble at the start. The low % jockey will keep her price high, but the horse comes first in capping.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. F.S.Mdn 62k

#2 Tossup (5/1) – She needed her last race off a long layoff and has posted 3 nice works since. Her race two back at Saratoga she showed real ability.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (OFF Turf) F.Clm 35000n3x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Cartwheel (8/1) – The lone MTO in the field and dropping in class, the Conductor hopes she’s sent right to the front in a race devoid of pace.

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Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. S.OC 40000n2x

#2 Real Dan (9/2) – 2nd off the layoff and stretching out to a route for the first time for Pletcher, there is no way they’ll allow the Conductor to get that price, but a man can dream.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (OFF Turf) F.S.Mdn 62k

*Never a Doubt Thursday Night Stews Lock of the Day #13 Amos (2/1) – MTO

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Ponies

Wind Pipe Whack Wednesday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

The Conductor's Scribe

Back to back great days at Parx for the Conductor. Winners galore yesterday including a 12/1 #gullet shot in the opening race. Now the train back up to New York for the rest of the week. Let’s keep up the momentum and get this baby into 6th gear. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.Clm 25000n2L

#4 Bid You Adieu (5/1) – She’s working well for connections that can win off the layoff and any filly who breaks her maiden at Toga has ability.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. (OFF Turf) F.S.Mdn 62k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Lookbothways (8/1) – She had a troubled start last time but has two 2nds at this level on dirt. The other runners in this group have unproven dirt form.

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Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 14000n3L

 #1 Midnightisalright (4/1) – She’ll go right to the front from the rail and should be alone on the lead.

Race 4: 1 Mile. MC 25000

#7 Ari’s Naughty Luca (4/5) – 2nd off the layoff and dropping in class, he’ll handle this group with ease.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. (OFF Turf) MC 40000

#5 Monmouth Dr (5/1) – He’s debuting as the lone MTO in this race and the Conductor likes work tab.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. Alw 40000s

*Never a Doubt Humpday Lock #3 Bon Raison (2/1) – Throw out his last start on a sloppy track, he’s the class of the field and should get a perfect stalking trip just off the speed.

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Race 7: 1 3/8 Mile. (OFF Turf) F.Mdn 90k

#9 Mercy Mercy (5/1) – Shipping in from California, the Conductor likes this girl getting back to dirt.

Race 8: 1 1/16. OC 62500n2x

#2 Dynamix Prime (6/1) – This gelding is in good form, loves to win races and loves Belmont Park.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. (OFF Turf) Clm 30000n2L

#2 Letzgometz (6/1) – He was pulled up in his last start but is working well leading into today. He showed talent in his maiden breaker two starts back and has the most upside in the field.

Ponies

Wind Pipe Whack Wednesday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor hadn’t played Parx in a while and it showed the last two days with an absolute ass kicking. Thankfully, New York is back to on Wednesdays and there are a few decent opportunities on today’s card.  One month until Toga, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. MC 50000

#4 Soul Group (8/1) – He brushed the gate in his debut vs tougher and the Conductor likes that Rosario stays aboard. He has upside.

Race 2: 6½ Furlongs. F.S.Clm 40000

*Never a Doubt Humpday Lock #5 First Forever (4/5) – She looks to be too good for this group.

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Race 3: 5 Furlongs. F.Mdn 80k

#3 Sweet Kisses (3/1) – Well bred, her sire wins at a 25% clip with 1st time starters. She also has strong connections in her corner.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Clm 35000n3L

#5 Zap Daddy (9/2) – 2nd off the layoff, he’s dropping back into the claiming ranks for the first time in a while. The last time he ran for a tag, he won.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 16000n2L

#6 Eddy Dirt (7/2) – He’s dropping in class and has the best turf form in the field.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.MC 40000

#1 Galadriel’s Light (5/2) – She’s bred to be better on the grass and if she can stand up on turf, she’ll beat this group.

Race 7: 1 Mile. Alw 40000s

#2 Rucksack (4/1) – He took a long time to break his maiden, but his figures fit in here. The Conductor is using the old lightbulb angle.

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.OC 40000n2x

#2 Broken Border (9/2) – She’s 3/4 at this distance at Belmont Park.  Getting back to 7 furlongs, she’s the Conductor’s best bet of the day.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) Clm 40000n2L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Mend Up (15/1) – This colt is steadily progressing and will try turf for the first time. His dam has produced 2 grass winners and trainer Ubillo Rodrigo is 2/9 with a +15.00 ROI with 1st time turf runners.

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Ponies

Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor had a shorty winner in the opener yesterday, then couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn. This week is a can’t lose Conductor! Tighten it up! We need money to play with tomorrow, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 7 Furlongs. Mdn 90k

#2 Per Capita (8/1) – The “other” Chad in this race.  His dam has produced 3 stakes winners from 6 starters, he’s posting bullet works and will be a bigger price.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.S. Mdn 72k

#8 Lead Guitar (5/1) – 200k at auction, George Weaver can surprise with 1st time starters and the Conductor likes his work tab. His bullet work at Keeneland April 30th did not go unnoticed.

Race 3: 1 Mile. (Turf) OC 80000n1x

#1 Wild Medegliad’oro (5/1) – He took a little while to break his maiden, but he was very impressive stretching out on the grass for the 1st time.  This is what he’s wanted all along.

Race 4: 6 ½ Furlongs. S.OC 40000n2x

#7 Fiery Opal (10/1) – The favorites look tough to beat, but the Conductor is going to key this gelding in the trifecta, mostly underneath. Cutting back to a sprint after racing last weekend, he will come running late.

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. F.G3 Bed of Roses Stakes

#7 Separationofpowers (5/2) – Drawn well to the outside, she looks primed for this spot 2nd off the layoff.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) OC 100000n3x

#6 Gidu (8/1) – He has an early pace edge on this field and is working well entering today. The Conductor will root for him to get to the front and scamper away.

Race 7: 5 ½ Furlongs. 150k Tremont Stakes

#2 Maven (7/5) – The son of American Pharoah, he looked great in his debut win last time.

Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs. G2 True North Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Do Share (5/1) – He ran solid last time closing into a moderate pace against Mitole, who we’ll see tomorrow in the Met Mile. The Conductor loves him in this spot, its his best bet on the card.

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Race 9: 1 ¼ Mile. (Inner Turf) F.G2 New York Stakes

*Never a Doubt Friday Night Bottle Service Lock of the Day #8 Homerique (6/5) – She’s too classy for this group.

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Race 10: 2 Miles. (Turf) G2 Belmont Gold Cup

#4 Red Knight (7/2) – He’s proven at the distance, 2nd off the layoff and does his best running at Belmont.

Race 11: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 40000s

#8 Queen Kahen (10/1) – 1st off the claim for Linda Rice, his win last time on dirt gives him every chance if he takes to the lawn.

Ponies

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf Breakdown

The Conductor's Scribe

Breeders’ Cup Saturday Races

Race 6: 1 3/8 Mile. (Turf) Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

The Breeders’ Cup really knows how to pick their sponsors.  Is there anything better than betting on the best ponies in the world and having a few too many whiskey’s? The Conductor thinks not.  The Conductor is not a fan of this race from a betting perspective however, with the best turf trainer in the country have 5 runners.  He can dictate how this race is run.

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*Underneath Uppercut to the Adams Apple #14 Eziyra (15/1) – Her form in Europe is the best of the bunch and she will be the Conductor’s key in this race.  She draws a brutal position and has lesser known connections, but she is nails.  She has yet to miss the board in 11 career starts at different tracks, surfaces, distances and she’ll be a big price.  The Conductor gives her an outside chance to win, but will bet she’ll find a way to end up in the top 3.  He’ll key her with Chads runners in the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta.

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Chad Brown Runners: #1 Fourstar Crook (5/1) #2 Thais (20/1) #6 Sister Charlie (3/1) #9 A Raving Beauty (10/1) #12 Santa Monica (15/1) – One of them will win, you figure out which one.  The Conductor is hoping for one of the bigger prices, but all the Conductor knows is you’ll see this mug in the winner’s circle.

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