Tag: chad brown

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf Picks and Analysis

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Two racehorses competing closely with jockeys during a horse racing event.

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf time, Let’s Ride.

Saturday, November 7 – Race 7: 1 3/8 Mile. (Turf) F.G1 Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

#1 Starship Jubilee (10/1) – There are many awesome, gutsy, mares in this group and she is one of them. She beat the boys up at Woodbine last time. She wouldn’t surprise the Conductor, but he prefers others.

*#2 Sistercharlie (6/1) – This mare may have lost a step, but she hasn’t had pace to run at in her two starts this year. With a 14-horse field, she should get a fair chance to win this race again and the Conductor can’t wait to watch her try. If she can go out on top, the Conductor will be part of it, especially at a decent price.

#3 Peaceful (12/1) – This filly is well meant, but she’s coming off a poor effort and this is a lot to ask. The Conductor is against her.

#4 Mean Mary (7/2) – She was very game in defeat in the Diana, but she did have a favorable trip setting a slow pace. The Conductor can’t see her turning the tables on Rushing Fall.

#5 My Sister Nat (12/1) – The Conductor is tossing every runner in here exiting the Flower Bowl. He doesn’t think it was a very strong race.

*#6 Rushing Fall (5/2)

Most of the Conductor’s play will go through this classy mare. She should sit a similar trip today right on Mean Mary’s hip and get first run on the closers.

Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf

#7 Terebellum (20/1) – She showed a nice burst last time, but tired quickly. The Conductor thinks this is too much to ask.

#8 Mucho Unusual (30/1) – This isn’t California turf. No chance.

#9 Harvey’s Lil Goil (20/1) – The Conductor is a fan of this filly, but she gets the acid test today vs older. The Conductor doesn’t think she’s there yet.

#10 Civil Union (12/1) – Flower Bowl? Chuck.

#11 Audarya (12/1) – This is the European the Conductor likes most in here. She’s in good form and is exiting a very tough race where she ran well.

#12 Lady Prancealot (30/1) – No chance

#13 Nay Lady Nay (20/1) – Flower Bowl? Toss.

#14 Cayenne Pepper (8/1) – She ran very well last time with a favorable trip. It will be very hard for her to work out a trip from this post.

Picks: 6 – 2 – 11

Belmont and Keeneland: Graded Stakes Picks October 10

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A gray racehorse with a jockey wearing a purple helmet and green and white silks racing on a dirt track.

Not great at Belmont yesterday, but the Conductor started seeing the ball well at Keeneland and was able to get a few body shots in. The tracks can only defend themselves for so long, plenty of quality racing today. Let’s Ride.

Belmont Park:

Race 4: 1 Mile. C1 Champagne Stakes

#5 Reinvestment Risk (8/5) – This colt ran behind #4 Jackie’s Warrior (3/5) last time, but the Conductor thinks he can turn the tables. He’s bred to go longer and the extra furlong today will help his cause.

Race 5: 1 Mile. F.Frizette-G1 Frizette Stakes

The Conductor prefers #1 Vequist (2/1) over the #2 Cantata (9/5). Vequist has been tested by winners and gutted them like a fish.

#6 Get On the Bus (20/1) – A bomb that the Conductor will use underneath, this filly looks to get a nice trip with a hot pace to close into. She should improve on the stretch-out and O’neil clearly thinks highly of her, throwing her into graded stakes right away.

Keeneland

Race 8: 1 ¼ Mile (Turf) G1 Flower Bowl

#1 Cambier Parc (5/2) – The Conductor has always been a fan of this filly. 2nd off the layoff for Chad she’s the one to beat.

#4 La Signare (8/1) – She’s been facing tougher competition than this group and has run well despite not getting into the winner’s circle. At a nice price in a small field the Conductor will include her.

Race 9: 1 ¼ Mile. G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes

#4 Tacitus (1/1) – This isn’t a great betting race, but Tacitus should destroy this field (tell me if you’ve heard that before). He’s let people down enough times that he may be a higher price than he should. The Conductor will take anything over even money.

Race 10: 1 Mile (Turf) G2 Sands Point

This looks like another chalky race to the Conductor. #1 Tamahere (5/2) will be is top pick, but #3 Selflessly and #5 Miss J McKay (7/2) are the only other winning contenders and he doesn’t have a strong opinion.

Keeneland:

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. G2 Hagyard Fayette Stakes

Now this is a good gambling race and the Conductor likes some prices.

*Double Barreled Buckshot #1 Coastal Defense (6/1) – This colt continues to steadily progress and improve the further he runs. He can put himself in a good spot early and wont tire.

#10 Aurelius Maximus (10/1) – This colt was well meant as a baby and has struggled to stay on the racetrack. He looked very good in his comeback win off a break last time and looks to be sitting on a big one 2nd off the layoff.

Keeneland

The Conductor will mainly be using those two, but #4 Mirinaque (15/1) is an intriguing bomb that he will use a little bit as well. He was ultra-consistent in Argentina on both turf and dirt and against massive fields. His only race in the states was behind Maximum Security and he didn’t show his best that day. He’s a wildcard that will be a huge number.

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.G1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup S

#4 Magic Attitude (5/2) – This filly looked smooth as silk in her first start in the US last time. The Conductor thinks she’ll be very tough to beat.

#6 Hendy Woods (10/1) – She was checked hard in her last start and was still able to run 2nd behind Sharing, who would be favored in here. She’ll be a nice price and take a big step forward with a clean trip.

#1 Harvey’s Little Goyle (3/1) – The Conductor has been impressed by her versatility at Keeneland and the shorter distance will help her today.

Keeneland: Key Horses for Saturday, October 3

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A large crowd gathered at a spring horse racing event with people and horses on a grassy area.

That would be the Conductor’s last winner yesterday, despicable. Great card again today and the Conductor will be firing away at both Pimlico and Keeneland. The anticipation mounts.

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) G2 Woodford Stakes

#4 Just Might (5/1) – This gelding should have no problem getting a solo lead based on his early pace figures. 2nd off the layoff, improving and his 3rd last race was flattered by Diamond Oops yesterday. There is a lot to like.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.G2 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes

#2 Dos Vinos (7/2) – The pace looks to be hot in this one and the Conductor sees this filly getting a perfect trip. She should be able to get first run sitting just behind the dueling frontrunners

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.G1 First Lady Stakes

#4 Newspaperofrecord (8/5) – #1 Beau Recall (2/1) beat her last time, but the Conductor sees her turning the tables here. There is no other speed in this race and she can dictate the terms on the front end. The Conductor also thinks #5 Uni (5/2) has lost a step.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. G1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity

#9 King Fury (12/1) – This 950k son of Curlin won his debut at two turns, which is very difficult to do. He also had a 4wide trip around both turns. He’s the only horse in the field proven at this distance and there is no telling how much he can improve today at Keeneland.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) G1 Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Analyze It (9/2) – Coming back from a two-year layoff last time, he easily beat a Grade 3 field. Chad Brown puts him right back into Grade 1 company today and the Conductor has seen this move 1000 times before. When Chad’s aggressive with horses off long breaks, they’re live.

Keeneland

He’s Baaaaaaaaccccckkkkkkkk: Pegasus World Cup Day Plays

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Horses and jockeys racing at the Pegasus World Cup Invitational event with a logo overlay.

He’s Baaaaaaaaaccccccccckkkkkkkkkkk. The Conductor apologizes for his recent absence, but not really. The train went off the rails and needed some maintenance, that’s just part of ductor life. Nothing a few weeks back at the station can’t fix. You passengers didn’t think he’d miss the Pegasus World Cup did you? Silly passengers, after all this time you still can’t figure out the Conductor. Great card today at Gulfstream, big fields and the Conductor is salivating. Time to take a nice slow ride THROTTLE IT! Let’s Ride.

pegasus world cup

Race 7: 1 Mile. G3 Fred W. Hooper Stakes

This is a very intriguing race to start the Pick 6 sequence. We’ll have to see if the dirt is a speed highway, but this looks like a meltdown race with a blistering pace on paper. The Conductor will turn to the closers.

#5 Phat Man (10/1) – Exiting a good 2nd last start, splitting War Story and Bode Express (who we’ll talk about later), he looks to get a great trip with Irad aboard. The Conductor will key him in the exacta as well.

#7 Tale of Silence (10/1) – He’s had time off after running a dud last start. His race two back closing into a slow pace and finishing 1 ¾ lengths behind Maximum Security makes him a must use.

Other contenders #8 Free Enterprise (4/1), #10 Gray Magician (6/1), and the Conductor can see #9 Olympic Village (20/1) hitting the board underneath.

Race 8: 1½ Mile. (Turf) F.G3 La Prevoyante Stakes

#6 Lady Paname (3/1) – She’s clearly the one to beat from the Conductor’s perspective and will single her on most tickets. The long layoff doesn’t concern him with Chad.

#3 Kelsey’s Cross (8/1) – This filly is making her first start as a four-year-old and has sneaky back class. She’s run behind Cambier Parc and Concrete Rose and this field is much weaker than what she’s used to.

#4 Mean Mary (8/1) – She’s the controlling speed and the Conductor likes her steady progression.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. F.G2 Inside Information Stakes

Another race with what looks like a hot pace, the Conductor sees only 3.

#7 Spiced Perfection (8/5) – The heavy favorite, she’d clearly the class of the field and can dictate her own trip.

#6 Nonna Madeline (8/1) – She didn’t live up to the hype last year but took care of business in her comeback race. The Conductor thinks she has the potential to take a big step forward.

#11 Pink Sands (8/1) – This mare is going to get a good setup like she did in her last victory and loves Gulfstream.

Race 10: 1½ Mile. (Turf) G3 W. L. McKnight Stakes

Nothing creative, the logical contenders, no strong opinion: #1 Red Night (3/1), #7 Cross Border (9/2), #8 Pumpkin Rumble (8/1), #12 American Tattoo (7/2)

Race 11: 1 3/16 Mile. (Turf) G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes

The Conductor is going to toss #12 Magic Wand (7/2) from that post. She’s classy and can win, but loves to run 2nd and will be hammered at the windows. There is a trainer named Chad Brown you may have heard of who will win this race.

#3 Without Parole (4/1) – He ran well behind Uni on Breeders Cup Day last time and the Conductor thinks he’s a cut above this field. Most of his money will go through him.

#6 Instilled Regard (10/1) – The Conductor has always been a fan of this horse and is improving on the turf.

#11 Sacred Life (12/1) – He’s a hard knocker and the Conductor will use him defensively.

Race 12: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes

This race obviously completely changed with the scratch of Omaha Beach, but the Conductor thinks its now a much better betting race.

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Seeking the Soul (30/1) – He went off form last fall but has had a long time off and is training well. His 2nd behind Seeking the Soul in last years Pegasus behind City of life would win this year’s running and he has the most back class. The Conductor has a feeling he’s going to run a big one and will key him in the exacta and trifecta.

#12 Bode Express (30/1) – He won’t be that price, but he’ll be on the lone lead and has the talent to take them all the way around if he can tick off favorable fractions. He was fractious last start and went too fast early, but his race two back and run behind Maximum Security as a 3-year-old show he has the talent.

#6 Higher Power (6/1) – He ran a very good 3rd in the BC Classic and there aren’t any Vino Rosso’s or Mckinzie’s in this field.

#10 Mucho Gusto (9/2) – The Conductor can’t toss him with his form against Maximum Security.

pegasus world cup

Glad to be back.

Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Plays at Aqueduct

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Horses competing in a race at Aqueduct Racetrack with jockeys in colorful silks.

The Conductor doesn’t want a big day, he needs one. We will execute and we will thrive at Aqueduct. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. (OFF Turf) F.S.MC 40000

#11 Happy Music (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff this filly drops to the claiming ranks for the firt time and has been well bet vs tougher. She draws in as an MTO.

Race 2: 1 Mile. F.Clm 16000n2L

#2 True Prosperity (6/1) – She had a troubled trip last time and she gets back to a route today where she ran her best two back. She’ll run in the exacta at a nice number.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 50000s

#6 Overheated (10/1) – This girl stretches out to a turf route for the first time and this group is very average. Rosario has hit with some big prices riding for Ray Handal recently.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 70k

#2 Tan and Tight (6/5) – Keep it tight, keep it light.

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. F.Clm 25000n2L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Abraxan (10/1) – She’s dropping to the claiming ranks for the first time and has run on turf and a sloppy track in her last two starts. Her form sprinting on a fast dirt track gives her every chance.

aqueduct

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Outer Turf) S.Clm 25000

#9 Whatawonderflworld (9/2) – Dropping to her lowest career class level, she ran very well last time vs tougher and looks to get a good setup today with pace to run at.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 100000b

#3 Chipolata (4/1) – This filly has the back class and figures to beat the favorite #2 Dream Passage (1/1) and will be a much better price. She’s also 1/1 over the Aqueduct surface.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. F.S.MC 40000

#1 Maru (7/2) – She showed speed vs tougher in her debut and hung on for 3rd. She can run this group off their feet.

The Conductor’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Preview

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A racehorse with a jockey wearing red and white silks racing on a track.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf time, Skip.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

#1 Living in the Past (15/1) – The Conductor didn’t like her finish last race.

#2 Croughavouke (20/1) – The west coast turf runners aren’t in this class.

#3 Shadn (10/1) – This filly has been very consistent across the pond and a good foundation. The Conductor won’t rule her out.

#4 Abscond (15/1) – She had a favorable trip last time up close to a slow pace. The Conductor doesn’t think she’s good enough.

#5 Daahyeh (5/1) – She’s the best of the Euros and is a definite contender with a good draw.

#6 Unforgetable (20/1) – The Conductor will forget about her.

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Crystalle (8/1)

She looks to be the Conductor’s best bet on Friday’s card if we get anything close to that morning line. This girl ran a monster late pace figure closing into a slow pace and looks to get a much better setup in this one. With a solid draw and Rosario aboard, the Conductor is licking his chops.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

#8 Tango (10/1) – This filly is a seasoned vet at this point and has faced quality competition in Europe. Her blowout victory last time caught the Conductor’s attention.

#9 Albigna (9/2) – Another European contender.

#10 Fair Maiden (12/1) – She’s the other American that intrigues the Conductor. She’s obliterated fields sprinting and will get a firm turf course for the first time Friday, which the Conductor expects her to appreciate.

#11 Sharing (12/1) – The Conductor can’t knock her too much, but he doesn’t think she can win from this post.

#12 Sweet Melania (5/1) – She’s been impressive in her young career, but the Conductor doesn’t like her in this spot. She has a wide draw and will be contesting a hot early pace. She’ll be over bet in the Conductor’s opinion.

#13 Selflessly (8/1) – She beat #7 Crystalle, who the Conductor likes best, last time but she doesn’t look to get as favorable a trip here and will be heavily bet from the Chad Brown barn.

#14 Etoile (12/1) – This filly has talent, but the Conductor will fade her from out there.

The Conductor’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Preview

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Dynamic horse race featuring jockeys in colorful silks, showcasing competitive racing on a lush track.

The Europeans have dominated the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, but with tough draws this year they’re not a cinch. The Conductor isn’t in love with Chad Brown either.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

*#1 Our Country (15/1) – The Conductor likes this colt at a big price in this spot. He’s run very strong late pace figures and has some troubled trips that have muddied up his form. He was hung very wide last time and will be able to save ground here from the rail. His maiden breaker was as good as you’ll see on turf.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

#2 Structor (5/1) – 2/2 in his 1st two career starts, he hasn’t done anything wrong, but hasn’t shown the Conductor anything special. At a short price for Chad Brown he is a contender, but will be over bet.

#3 Peace Achieved (10/1) – Winner of three in a row and steadily progressing, the Conductor can’t knock him, but doesn’t think he’s fast enough to win.

#4 Decorated Invador (4/1) – He’s shown versatility, winning convincingly over firm and soft turf. The Conductor likes him, but he may be over bet as well.

#5 Vitalogy (GB) (10/1) – The Conductor would take this colt 10/10 times over #3 Peace Achieved who held him off last start. He has a very strong late kick and the Conductor will absolutely be using him.

#6 Graceful Kitten (15/1) – He won’t be able to get the distance.

*#7 Andesite (12/1)

The Conductor likes him better than Structor in here. He showed fight in the Pilgrim and galloped out back in front of Structor by a mile after the wire. He’ll be a big price and will be tough to pass down the lane.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

#8 Billy Bats (20/1) – The Conductor won’t be using any California turf horses.

#9 Gear Jockey (20/1) – He can’t win going this far.

#10 War Beast (20/1) – No California horses.

#11 Proven Strategies (30/1) – This colt needs shorter.

#12 Arizona (5/2) – Undoubtedly the class of the field, this colt has been running against the best across the pond. Pinatubo would be odds on against this group and is a serious race horse. The wide draw will not make this an easy task, but the Conductor will absolutely be using him.

#13 Fort Meyers (12/1) – A tough draw, but with the success of the Europeans in this race, the Conductor can’t ignore him. His European form is strong and he has a lot of experience.

#14 Hit the Road (10/1) – No California turf horses.

The Conductor’s Friday Plays at Belmont Park

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Horses and jockeys racing at Belmont Park, showcasing the excitement of a horse race with colorful silks and starting gates.

The Conductor’s got a nice feel for Belmont right now. Big Sandy better protect itself or it could get ugly. Very ugly.

Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs. MC 20000

#4 Cavaradossi (7/2) – The Conductor doesn’t have a strong opinion here.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.S.Mdn 62k

#4 Tales I Winit (8/1) – Her debut race was rained off the turf and she had trouble from the start. She’ll take a big step forward on the lawn today and will be a big price for strong connections.

Race 3: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 25000

#2 Street Trust (5/2) – Chalk

Race 4: 6 ½ Furlongs. Clm 12500

#2 Scarf it Down (5/2) – Scarf it Down on Force Feed Friday? Never a Doubt.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Clm 50000

#7 Go Poke the Bear (3/1) – He ran a strong late pace figure closing into a slow pace last time. He’ll get the job done today.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.S.OC 40000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Short Pour (8/1) – She set a hot pace and fended everyone off in her 1st try routing last time. The Conductor thinks she can wire them again. There will be no short pours in his house.

belmont

Race 7: 1 Mile. F.Mdn 75k

#4 Katama Moonlight (7/5) – She looks like a cinch today at Belmont.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) S.Mdn 62k

#3 Kierkegaard (7/2) – Dropping back into state bred company and stretching out for the first time, he’s run two solid races against quality fields.

Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

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Horses racing at Belmont Park with spectators cheering in the foreground.

Great end to the day yesterday for the Conductor at Belmont Park….now we get to press! Let’s Ride.

 

Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs. MC 75000

#7 Mr Phil (5/2) – Nothing creative here.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.S.Mdn 62k

#5 Canarsie Angel (6/1) – Switching back to turf, her debut on the lawn was better than it looks, closing into a slow pace in a race that has comeback live. The Conductor will key her in the exacta and tri.

Race 3: 1 Mile. Clm 40000n2L

#6 Jerome Avenue (4/1) – #4 Always Forgiven (5/2) is the one to beat, but the Conductor likes this gelding as well. Cutting back to a mile, he stayed on while pressing a hot pace going longer last time.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Clm 30000n2L

#5 Noble Jewel (9/2) – The Conductor likes this filly cutting back to a sprint.

Race 5: 6½ Furlongs. F.S.C 25000

#1 Gray Witch (5/2) – Castellano takes the mount for Brad Cox and there is not much to like from the runners with experience. The Conductor is a little intrigued with #3 Our Craftys Legacy (30/1) on the class plunge.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.Alw 66000n1x

*Underneath Uppercut #9 Alvernia (20/1) – She improved mightily in her 1st time on grass last time. The winner of that race, O’Malley, just came back to win for the Conductor yesterday. She’s the Conductor’s key in the exacta and tri.

belmont park

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 100000b

#1 American Tattoo (6/1) – He’s had some time off and is working well since his dud last time. His win two back and Argentinian form show the Conductor he has talent and the ability to rebound.

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. S.MC 50000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Macho Boy (10/1) – He’s run well vs tougher at Belmont and was under pressure on a hot pace last time. He also gets a weight break today.

belmont park

Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

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A vine-covered building with large arched windows and a crowd of spectators seated in front, surrounded by greenery and trees.

Another positive day at the track yesterday with a few nice winners.  Too bad Green Bay’s defense stinks and they can’t score from the 1-yard line twice in the 4th quarter. Idiots! The Conductor is chomping at the bit this morning. He’s ready to head into the weekend at Belmont in style, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. MC 20000

#3 Dream’n Deamon (4/1) – This gelding has a monster early pace edge over this field. The low % jockey should keep his price high.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. Clm 25000n2L

#2 Bucked Tooth (6/1) – Throw out his turf try last time, his maiden breaker two back makes him very gangerous.

Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.S.Clm 25000

#4 Starlite Mission (5/1) – She’s taking a big drop in class and does her best running over the Belmont dirt. The Conductor will key her in the exacta.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.S.Mdn 62k

#2 More Glitter (3/1) – Bet down to favoritism in her debut, she ran ok sprinting on the dirt. She stretched out and moves to the lawn today, where she’s bred to take a big step forward.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) Mdn 75k

#5 Turned Aside (5/2) – Linda Rice is deadly with 2nd time starters and this colt ran a very good 3rd in his debut, pressing a hot pace.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. S.Alw 66000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Irish Valor (8/1) – Throw out his last two efforts over a sloppy track and turf. In his race 3 back, he finished ahead of the even money favorite in here #4 Doups Point (1/1). 8/1 would be a delectable price for the Conductor.

Belmont park

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 62500

#2 Miss Mystique (5/1) – The Conductor thinks this filly has a big chance to wire this field at a decent price.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 30000n2L

#1 Brockmoninoff (9/2) – 3rd off the layoff and adding Lasix, the Conductor thinks he’s sitting on his top effort.