churchill downs picks Archives - The Conductor's Scroll

Churchill Downs: Key Horses for Saturday, May 29

on May 29, 2021April 19, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Horses racing at Churchill Downs with spectators in the grandstands during an event.

2/2 with 13/1 and 4/1 winners yesterday at Belmont. We are not worthy passengers. The Ductor is too good for us. I just bought 100 t-shirts at full price to thank him for his services, its the least I can do.Mother nature is the only thing that can slow down the Ductor at Belmont, so he’ll turn his attention to Churchill Downs today. Stakes racing all day. Skip

Churchill Downs Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Shawnee Stakes

#2 La Renoleta (8/1) – #7 Envoutante (4/5) is the clear one to beat, but if there is anyone that could surprise in this field is the #2. Undefeated in Argentina, she romped in her US debut then something went wrong and she didn’t do much running in her comeback effort. She’s working fast entering today and the Conductor thinks we see her real self in this one.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.Regret G3 Regret Stakes

#7 Gam’s Mission (5/1) – Her only loss was in her debut to Aunt Pearl and the Ductor really liked her last win. She had to wait behind horses then exploded down the stretch and galloped out nicely. She is steadily progressing and could be a nice one.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. Matt Winn-G3

#2 Helium (5/2) – He let the Ductor down in the Derby, but he didn’t run poorly there. He should get the job done today.

Churchill Downs Race 10: 6 Furlongs. AristidesL150K

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Mojo Man (10/1) – The most intriguing stakes on the card from a betting perspective, the Conductor sees the pace heating up in this one and this gelding will be finishing late. He’s exiting a tougher race and ran well last time despite breaking poorly. With a cleaner trip today, the Conductor thinks he has every chance.

Churchill Downs: Late Pick 4 Key Horses for Friday, November 27

on November 27, 2020April 20, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Entrance of Churchill Downs featuring a horse statue and the Kentucky Derby Museum.

Some nice prices at Churchill Downs hand Del Mar yesterday. The Conductor will hit Kentucky and California again today, then back to a full slate tomorrow.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Alw 87000n1x

#1 O Seraphina (7/2) – She got cooked in a hot pace last time and is now stretching back out to a route. 2^nd off the layoff, she’ll be fit and will have a more favorable pace scenario today.

#7 Longpants Required (10/1) – This filly ran a very strong late pace figure in a race taken off the turf last time. If you ignore her turf races, she fits with this group at a big price.

Race 9: 1 Mile. OC 80000n3x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Casino Star (8/1) – He’s been running behind real racehorses in his last few and hasn’t disgraced himself. He gets major class relief today despite staying at the same level.

Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 Clark Stakes

#8 Bodexpress (8/1) – All his monster races have come at Gulfstream Park West, which is a concern, but will help his price. There is no denying his early pace advantage in here. Right to the front and hold on for dear life.

#3 Code of Honor (3/1) – He’s the most likely winner in the Conductor’s opinion

Race 11: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 85k

#7 Silverbella (9/5) – 2^nd off the layoff today after a good effort last time at Churchill Downs, she’s clearly the one to beat. Her race two back crushes this field.

Churchill Downs: Thanksgiving Late Pick 4 Key Horses

on November 26, 2020April 20, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Four riders on horseback at Churchill Downs with the grandstand in the background.

Give the Conductor all the action at Churchill Downs today with a hot pot of gravy and a barrel of stew. Let’s Ride.

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. F.OC 62500n2x

#5 Casual (9/2) – She’s been off since the summer after going off form. She returns today in not too tough a spot and has the most talent and upside in the field. The Conductor will take a swing at anything near that price. Go watch her maiden race again.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. OC 80000n3x

*Double Gravy Whack of the Day #1 Strike Power (12/1) – What a great betting race this is. This horse is making his first start in the Asmussen barn off a long layoff. He’s won off long breaks before and his A effort beats this field. The Conductor must include him at that price.

#3 Bango (10/1) – He beat a strong field two back and had no chance behind Nashville last time. 3^rd off the layoff today and returning to Churchill Downs, where he runs his best, the Conductor loves him here.

Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G2 Falls City Stakes

#3 Bonny South (8/5) – She ran huge last time at Churchill Downs and would have won easy with a halfway decent ride. Her race in the Alabama two back beats this field easily.

Race 11: 6½ Furlongs. Alw 87000n1x

#3 Motagally (15/1) – This colt ran a good 3^rd last time pressing a hot pace routing. Cutting back to a sprint today and adding blinkers, he’s dangerous at a big number.

#6 Pirate Rick (8/1) – He’s taking a big step up in class, but nobody in this field can hang with this colt early. He’ll be on the lead by himself, which you cannot ignore.

Churchill Downs: Key Horses for Wednesday, November 25

on November 25, 2020April 20, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Thoroughbred horses racing at a derby event with a large crowd in the background, showcasing the excitement of horse racing.

Churchill Downs Pick 5 time. Skip.

Churchill Downs Race 5: 1 Mile. Clm 20000b

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Adhhar (6/1) – Stretching out to a route and dropping in class, this gelding looks to get a favorable trip up close or on a moderate pace. Amoss is 29% with a +$0.59 ROI with runners going two sprints to a route this year.

Race 6: 1 Mile. Clm 8000n2L

#6 Tom’s Last General (10/1) – Cutting back to a sprint and switching from turf to dirt, this colt will be very fit. His numbers fit with this group and the Conductor will try to get him in the exacta.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 50000n2L

#7 Beauty Day (6/1) – First off the claim for John Ortiz, this filly draws well to the outside and will be up close to a moderate pace. The Conductor likes the bump up in class and the turnback to a sprint.

Race 8: 1 Mile. OC 100000n2x

#5 Wild Wes (4/1) – #1 Dennis’ Moment (5/2) is working well and he shows up, they’ll be running for 2^nd. However, this gelding is intriguing. He’s stretching out for the 1^st time and ran huge last time behind the freak Nashville. He has major upside.

Race 9: 1 Mile. MC 50000

#10 Bird Ruler (2/1) – Dropping in class after running well at Churchill Downs in his debut, he’s clearly the one to beat.

Churchill Downs: Key Horses for Saturday, November 21

on November 21, 2020April 20, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Jockey wearing red and white silks riding a horse during a race with dirt on the horse's body.

2/4 with shorter prices and a 2^nd at Churchill Downs, chaos at Aqueduct, and nothing special at Del Mar Friday. The Conductor needs some of his bombs to come home this weekend. Let’s Ride.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.OClm 20000

#6 Its Cold in Dehere (7/2) – He looks to get a perfect setup and loves Churchill Downs. The Morey barn is red hot, over 5/2 and he’s a good bet.

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 85k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Bel Fiore (12/1) – She showed ability in her debut, closing for 3^rd into a slow pace. Then she had a rough start last time after being bet to favoritism. There is more under the hood here and the Conductor likes the switch to Gaffalione in the irons.

Race 9: 1 Mile. F.G3 Chilukki Stakes

#1 New Roo (20/1) – This filly moved early into a hot pace last time and faded late. Her prior two efforts fit with this group on numbers and she’s one of the longest shots on the board. The Conductor will key her in the trifecta at a bomb.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 10000b

#8 Blanket of Roses (6/1) – He’s taking a big drop in class for strong connections. He’s yet to run on dirt, but has run well on both turf and synthetic. In an open race, he has every chance.

Churchill Downs: Key Horses for Wednesday, November 18

on November 17, 2020April 20, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Horses racing towards the finish line at a night event with spectators in the background.

Alright passengers, we need a bounce back week so the Conductor can have a full Thanksgiving dinner next Thursday. It starts tomorrow at Churchill Downs and there are a bunch of prices jumping of the page. The Conductor will be tossing and turning dreaming about them tonight. Let’s Ride.

Churchill Downs Race 5: 7 Furlongs. F.OClm 50000

*#1 Dash to the Top (5/2) – Taking a big class drop and cutting back to a sprint, she’s a clear standout in here and a single.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 30000

*Double Barreled Buckshot #7 Spy a Star (10/1) – This filly made a decent move going 1 mile at last time before tiring and the Conductor loves the turnback to a sprint. Her best race was a good 3^rd at Churchill Downs sprinting vs tougher two starts back.

#10 Sugar Diva (10/1) – You can ignore her race last time on a sloppy track, and she showed ability in her debut prior. She is taking a major class drop as well.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. Alw 50000s

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Hygh I. Q. (8/1) – He made a nice move before tiring late last time. Making his 3^rd career start and shortening a half furlong today, anything near 8/1 is a must bet.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 62500n2x

#2 Extra Effort (8/1) – She got cooked up close to a hot pace on dirt last time and in her lone turf effort two back, she ran a good 3^rd vs similar company. Switching back to turf today, this filly can hit the board at a nice price.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. Clm 10000b

#2 Jimmy Joe (10/1) – Cipriano Contreras can get them ready off the layoff and this gelding has a strong early pace figure edge over this field. He can escape on the front end at a big number.

Churchill Downs: Key Horses for Sunday, November 15

on November 15, 2020April 20, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Entrance of Churchill Downs featuring the Kentucky Derby Museum and decorative architecture.

The Conductor’s key horses keep scratching at Churchill Downs. With rain in the forecast, the Conductor will focus on the early pick 4 tomorrow with all dirt races. The Conductor is annoyed and the track will need to atone for its sins on the Sabbath. Let’s Ride.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 10000b

#1 Abramax (3/1) – It was tough to make up ground on the Keeneland dirt and that’s just what she did last time. Dropping in class today, she’s the most likely winner and very playable if she’s not bet too hard.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. MC 30000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Thrown for a Loupe (8/1) – He dueled into submission last time and plunges in class today. He also shortens a furlong and draws a nice outside post. The Conductor prays he’s close to that price.

Race 4: 1 Mile. Alw 87000n1x

#2 Glory Road (4/1) – Cross out his last race when he broke thru the gate. His race two back at Churchill Downs stretching out for the first time gives him more than a chance against this group.

Race 5: 1 Mile. Mdn 85k

#1 Adara (10/1) – There aren’t any standouts in here, so the Conductor will peek at this 1^st time starter. He’s well bred and has a decent work tab at Churchill Downs for strong connections. Additionally, trainer Ken Mcpeek is 11% with a +$0.49 ROI debuting runners over a mile this year.

Churchill Downs: Key Horses for Saturday, November 14

on November 14, 2020April 20, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Everyone knows weekday racing is for the birds. Saturday at Churchill Downs is where the actions at. The Conductor’s Breeders’ Cup hangover is over, Let’s Ride.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

#10 Holiday Stone (6/1) – Dropping out of Grade 3 company, his race two back gives him every chance. He looks to get a good trip in here, with a hot pace to run at.

Race 8: 1 Mile. Clm 50000b

*Gullet Shot of the Day 10 Lonely Private (6/1) – Stretching out for the first time, he’ll be able to put himself in a good spot early in a race without much other pace. Trainer Wesley Hawley is also 3/11 with a +$0.64 ROI this year taking the blinkers off.

Race 9: 1 Mile. F.Alw 87000n1x

#4 Ocean Breeze (8/5) – After her wide trip last time at Churchill Downs, she should be able to handle this group. Her love for 2^nd scares the Conductor, but he will stay strong.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 Mrs. Revere Stakes

*Chiseled in Stone Lock of the Day #1 Hendy Woods (3/1) – Dropping out of a much tougher Grade 1 field that has come back live, she ran pretty well up close to a quick pace last time. Press her.

Race 11: 1 Mile. F.Mdn 85k

#9 Empress Catherine (6/1) – She was hammered at the windows at Churchill Downs in her debut and didn’t show much. The Conductor will forgive that effort and bet she shows her real ability here.

Churchill Downs: Late Pick 5 Key Horses for Friday, November 13

on November 13, 2020April 20, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Large crowd of spectators at the Kentucky Derby event at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

Woof, the Conductor’s been off the stew this week and his runners still haven’t finished running at Churchill Downs. Not to worry, he’s got a tall glass in his hand right now. Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 62500n2x

*Double Barreled Buckshot #2 Luvin Bullies (10/1) – This mare is a hard knocker and you can ignore her last two races that were taken off the turf. She’s working well off a short layoff.

#3 Violenza (12/1) – She had a tough trip last time at Churchill Downs and her two prior efforts put her right there. In an open race, she has every chance.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. MC 30000

*Force Feed Friday Best Bet of the Day #9 Beaucette’s Ekati (4/1) – This colt made a nice move on the turn before yielding late and drops in class today. 4/1 would be a treat.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 30000n2L

#10 Eagle Eye (4/1) – She had a wide trip last time off the layoff at Churchill Downs and showed talent in her debut. Another hammer job if she’s 4/1.

Race 9: 1 Mile. F.Alw 87000n1x

#4 Ocean Breeze (8/5) – This filly is a standout on numbers. If you can’t trust her today you never can.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 85k

#7 Aeronaut (20/1) – He’s working well and trainer Vickie Foley is 3/12 with a +$3.50 ROI this year with 1^st time starters. Mitchell Murrell also takes the mount for a barn he never rides for.

Churchill Downs: Key Horses for Wednesday, November 11

on November 11, 2020April 20, 2023 By The Conductor's Scribe

Finally, we’re back at Churchill tomorrow. Let all the fair-weather passengers go back to their holes after the Breeders’ Cup. Or, hopefully their dumping their winnings into the Conductor’s pools. Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Clm 50000

#5 Rijeka (8/1) – Dropping in class and shortening in distance, he’ll be very fit and had no chance behind a tepid pace last time.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. MC 30000

#4 Tribulation (9/2) – He was bet to favoritism last time at Churchill and stumbled at the start. He showed ability in his debut and the Conductor likes the rider switch to Gaffalione.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 62500n2x

#3 Two Thirty Five (5/2) – Although it was against weaker, his last race would beat this field. He has strong clack class and he may float up in odds with a few others in here that will take money.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 87000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Choate Bridge (10/1) – He took a big step forward last time at Churchill making up ground behind a slow pace. He should get a pace to run at this time and the Conductor sees him running a peak effort 3^rd off the layoff.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 85k

#5 Atoka (10/1) – This colt just missed Saratoga last year in his debut, showing talent and the ability to run well off the layoff. He’s working well entering today and will be a big number.