Tag: churchill downs picks

Churchill Downs: Late Pick 5 Key Horses for Sunday, November 8

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Thoroughbred horses racing at a derby event with spectators in the background, showcasing the excitement of horse racing.

Up and down Breeders’ Cup weekend for the Conductor. All in all, he should have capitalized more on a few more opportunities especially Audarya. Anyhow, hopefully you passengers made a few bucks and the train keeps moving. Whether its a maiden claimer at Churchill Downs or a Breeders’ Cup race, the money is still green. Skip.

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Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 85k

#1 Committed (12/1) – 2nd off the layoff today, he made a big wide move last time and was green down the stretch. He was flying at the finish and should step forward off of that effort. He gets a nice inside draw today as well.

Race 7: 6½ Furlongs. Clm 8000

#5 Paddy O’dini (4/1) – Dropping in class, switching from turf to dirt and posting a bullet work coming in. He smells like a Diodoro runner that wins easy.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. Clm 20000n2L

#2 Hansens Mischief (7/2) – He dueled against much tougher last time and didn’t get embarrassed. He’s very dangerous in this spot.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 100000n2x

#9 Mariafoot (10/1) – Dropping out of Grade 2 company, this filly is making her 3rd start in the US and she showed talent across the pond. She will have pace to run at in this one, which will help her chances.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 85k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 My Mane Girl (8/1) – She was favored in her debut last year at Churchill Downs and set a hot pace after a bothered start. Her work tab suggests this filly can fly.

Churchill Downs

Churchill Downs: Late Pick 5 Key Horses for Sunday, November 1

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A large horse racing venue featuring grandstands and a grassy track during an event.

No Bueno at Belmont today, but the Conductor is wishing they ran the Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs. Another #Gullet Shot of the Day answered the bell. You passengers bet him down to 4/1, get your grubby little hands out of the Conductor’s pools. Let’s finish the week strong prepare for the Breeders’ Cup next week. Skip

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Likely OFF Turf) Mdn 85k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1A Thrill (6/1) – The Conductor likes this colt stretching out for the first time on either surface. 3rd off the layoff, he’s working well over this Churchill surface.

Churchill Downs

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 85k

#6 Angkor (8/1) – This colt is well bred and the Conductor really likes his work tab for a hot barn.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. Alw 87000n1x

#1A Answer In (3/1) – Returning off a long layoff, this gelding showed real talent as a two-year-old. His work tab suggests Cox has him ready to fire.

Race 9: 1 3/8 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 62500n2x

#1 Tweety Show (5/1) – She ran a much-improved last race last time, finishing strong despite being stuck inside the entire stretch. She won at 13/1 at this distance at Churchill last year and the Conductor sees her running her best today.

#4 Golden Curl (5/1) – If it’s rained off the turf, then the Conductor prefers this filly.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. MC 15000

#8 Fugitive (9/5) – The Conductor doesn’t like this race, he’s most likely.

Churchill Downs: Late Pick 5 Key Horses for Saturday, October 31

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Entrance of Churchill Downs featuring a horse statue and the Kentucky Derby Museum.

Another solid day for the Conductor as Force Feed Friday Play of the Day #9 Night Time runs 2nd at 11/1 in the 8th and Silver Prospector wins at 5/2 in the 9th. The races will finally be back on the turf Saturday and the Conductor is ready to pounce. Keep loading the coal at Churchill Downs, Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 1 Mile. F.OC 80000b

#2 Gold Standard (9/5) – 2nd off the layoff today, she moved early into a hot pace last time. The Conductor doesn’t see anyone else beating her.

Race 7: 1 3/8 Mile. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

#1 Bourbon in May (3/1) – Closing into a slow pace last time, he ran even better than it looks. He continues to progress in the Maker barn.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 85k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #11 Minute Waltz (10/1) – The Conductor loves her work tab at Churchill with two bullet 5 furlong works and trainer Philip Bauer can win with first timers. The runners with experience aren’t standouts in here.

Churchill Downs

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 150000b

#2 Fact Finding (4/1) – This old man is in great form and will get the early lead. He has a major chance to take them all the way around.

#8 Captivating Moon (5/1) – He had no shot last time at Churchill, stuck behind horses and a slow pace. 3rd off the layoff today he’ll be rumbling late.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 50000

#4 A Kitten for Katie (5/1) – The runners with experience in here aren’t anything special. This 1st timer for Maker fits nicely.

Churchill Downs: Late Pick 5 Key Horses for Friday, October 30

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Thoroughbred horses racing at a derby event with spectators in the background, showcasing the excitement of horse racing.

The rain ruined the Thursday cards and it looks like slop again in New York. The Conductor will station the train in Louisville at Churchill Downs Friday, where the weather looks much better. Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. MC 40000

#4 Clearly Mad (7/2) – Dropping in class and cutting back to a sprint after dueling last time, he’s the one to beat.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Clm 40000

#6 Siamese (4/1) – Her back class makes her a great wager the Conductor’s opinion. Her race two back beats this field as well.

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. OC 62500n2x

*Force Feed Friday Play of the Day #9 Night Time (8/1) – He got cooked in a hot pace last time, but he should get a favorable trip today alone on the lead. The Conductor loves him the more he thinks about it.

Churchill Downs

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. OC 80000n3x

#5 Silver Prospector (3/1) – Making his first start since the Arkansas Derby, this colt’s work tab shows he’s ready to fire.

#8 Lord Dragon (8/1) – A backup that intrigues the Conductor, he’s run some big numbers since entering the Diodoro barn (shocker). He looks to get a nice stalking trip as well.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 85k

#2 Queen of the Green (4/1) – She ran a huge debut from the 12 hole last time at Churchill Downs. You won’t see many horses that wide all the way around run 2nd on turf.

#4 Saranya (7/2) – The Conductor needs to use two in here. She was very green in her debut, but you could see the talent oozing out of her skin.

Churchill Downs: Late Pick 5 Key Horses for Thursday, October 29

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Horses racing at Churchill Downs with spectators in the grandstands during an event.

Great Wednesday at Churchill for the Conductor as Windpipe Whack Wednesday Play of the Day Motown Music wins eeeeeaaasy at 7/1.

churchill

War like Goddess got the job done at 6/1 as well in the 9th and the train is rolling heading into the Breeders’ Cup. We’ll be back and forth from New York to Kentucky until Sunday. Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. Alw 87000n1x

#5 Alex Joon (9/2) – Coming off a year layoff, they jogged him around the track last time. He’s stretching out to a route today and has been working his eyeballs out. With the talent he showed in his maiden breaker, the Conductor sees him firing a big effort.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 85k

#1 Train to Artemus (4/1) – She ran very well in her debut, setting a hot pace and holding on for 3rd. Shortening to 5 ½ furlongs will make her tough to beat if she can break cleanly from the rail.

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. F.OC 62500n2x

#3 Club Car (2/1) – The Conductor doesn’t love anyone and in here, but this filly is the most likely winner after that last effort at Keeneland.

Race 9: 1 3/8 Mile. (Turf) Alw 87000n1x

#7 Fortuity (10/1) – This colt is steadily progressing and gets better the further he goes. He has the best late pace figures in the field.

Race 10: 1 Mile. Clm 10000b

#12 Uncle Gregory (8/1) – Dropping in class at Churchill today, he ran ok vs a much tougher group at Keeneland last time. The shorter distance will also help his cause.

Churchill Downs: Key Horses for Wednesday, October 28

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Large crowd of spectators at the Kentucky Derby event at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

The train will be stopping at Churchill and Belmont this week leading up to the Breeders’ Cup. Full breakdowns of the BC races will be dropping over the next week as well. The Conductor has a nice lump of coal from Collegeville Girl at 23/1 Saturday, Let’s keep building, Skip.

Race 6: 6½ Furlongs. Clm 50000b

#1 High Proof (10/1) – Taking a big drop in class today, he bobbled at the start and didn’t run a step last time. His prior numbers fit with this group and more importantly this race has no other speed. He’s adding blinkers and they’ll send him from the rail. He has a chance to steal it or hang on for a piece on the front end.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 85k

#5 Majestic Summer (7/2) – Stretching out for the first time, he closed well into a slow pace sprinting in his debut. He looks to get a good trip in here up close to a moderate pace at best.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. MC 30000

*Windpipe Whack Wednesday Play of the Day #6 Motown Music (15/1) – He showed initial speed out of the gate, then was wrangled back and did some running plate in his Churchill debut. He’s dropping in class today, getting a rider upgrade and posted a solid last work. The Conductor is praying he stays a big price.

churchill downs

Race 9: 1 3/8 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 87000n1x

#4 Sursum Corda (9/2), War Like Goddess (6/1) – Both these fillies ran huge late pace figures closing into slow paces last time. The added distance today will help their chances.

Race 10: 1 Mile. Clm 8000n2L

#6 Drink (9/5) – Shortening in distance after pressing a hot pace vs tougher last time, he should have no problem beating this group. Pour yourself a strong stew and single in the nightcap.

The Conductor’s Thanksgiving Day Plays at Churchill Downs

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Horses racing at Churchill Downs with spectators in the grandstands during a sunny day.

Happy Thanksgiving you filthy passengers. The Conductor has plenty to be thankful for in his life. He hopes you have a glorious day with friends and family. Time to stuff our gullets and our wallets at Churchill, Let’s Ride.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 80000b

#2 Ballard High (8/1) – This colt doesn’t often win, but always shows up. His figures fit in here and the Conductor will key him in the exacta.

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 105000nc

#6 Holiday Stone (12/1) – He won nicely last time cutting back to a turf sprint for the first time. He’s won two in a row and the Conductor sees him thriving at this distance.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. Clm 30000n2L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Peppered (15/1) – Dropping in class and cutting back to a sprint, the Conductor guarantees he runs in the trifecta.

churchill downs

Race 8: 1 Mile. Clm 50000n2L

#7 House Limit (5/1) – There are no limits in the Conductor’s house.

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G2 Falls City H.

#6 Sally’s Curlin (3/1) – Winner of her last three, she’s on the improve and running massive late pace figures.

Race 10: 6½ Furlongs. Alw 97000n1x

#2 Tight Ten (15/1) – This colt showed talent as a 2-year-old at Churchill and hasn’t run a good race this year. He’s had some time off since his last start, is working consistently, and Asmussen keeps him protected vs allowance company. All are positive signs.

Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Cardinal Stakes

#11 Starship Jubilee (6/5) – She looks like a standout in here, but the Conductor will key #3 Tweety Show (50/1) and #12 Area (30/1) at monster numbers in the trifecta.

The Conductor’s Wednesday Spot Plays at Churchill Downs

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Horses racing at Churchill Downs with spectators in the grandstands during a sunny day.

We’re heading into the winter lull of the horse racing season post Breeders’ Cup. Most passengers will cut down their play, but obviously not the Conductor. The clocks have turned back, the darkness has come. The only thing to keep him sane is to never leave the house and fire away at Churchill Downs. Skip! Skip!

Race 1: 1 Mile. F.MC 30000

#3 Mi Chachis Intenta (4/1) – This filly showed ability in her debut at Churchill and had a troubled trip last time when they moved her up in class. Dropping back to a lower level, the Conductor likes her.

Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs. Clm 30000n2L

#6 Carpe Noctem (7/2) – He’s drawn well to the outside and his early pace figures give him an advantage over this group.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 30000

#7 Happy Peddler (12/1) – This filly is working well, and trainer David Fawkes is 24% with +$1.23 ROI debuting maiden claimers this year. His barn is also hot to start the meet.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. Clm 7500

#9 Icatiro (6/1) – He drops to his lowest career class level and is working well after being clipped. Jockey Joseph Rocco Jr. is only a 10%, but he’s 31% with a +$3.65 ROI with trainer Michael Tomlinson the last two months.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 95k

#9 Summer Place (8/1) – This colt took money at Churchill and showed a something in her debut across the pond. He’s bred for the lawn and should also get a hot pace to close into.

Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs. MC 30000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #11 Speed Effect (10/1) – 2nd off the layoff, this gelding ran a good 3rd vs tougher at Keeneland last start. Dropping in class and likely to improve, the Conductor would love anything close to that morning line.

churchill downs

Pick 6 Mandatory Payout Play at Churchill Downs

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Two racehorses competing on a dirt track at Churchill Downs with spectators in the background.

The Conductor was heinous at Churchill yesterday, but it was a classic bait and switch. He got all his losers out of the way and saved his winners for the mandatory pick 6 payout today.  What a smart Conductor, Let’s Ride.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 97000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #10 Salvator Mundi (10/1) – This is a very tough race to start the sequence and the Conductor will be spreading. This colt is the price horse he likes most. 2nd off the layoff and getting back to the turf, he just missed being a Grade 3 winner by a head last year. That’s by far the best effort in this group to date.

Churchill Downs

The Conductor will also use: 1,2,4,8,11,12

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. 120K Kelly’s Landing Stakes

#7 Petrov (6/1) – The Conductor will include a price with the favorite.  This horse ran a good 2nd vs similar last start and has gotten better with each start this year. His win at Saratoga last summer gives him a chance.

The Conductor will also use: 1

Race 9: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 104000n1x

The Conductor is going to play against the heavy favorite #12 Om (2/1) in this spot. Drawn to the outside, his weapon is speed going longer, cutbacks don’t work on the turf like they do in dirt.

The Conductor will use: 1,2,5,7,8,9,10

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.125K Debutante Stakes

*Never a Doubt Pick 6 Single Lock #7 Magic Dance (8/5) – You couldn’t ask for much more in her debut.  She would have to take a step backwards to be beat today. The Conductor will take a stand.

Churchill Downs

Race 11: 6 Furlongs. G3 Bashford Manor Stakes

#2 Snell Yea (8/1) – The Conductor liked how hard he tried last start at Churchill and he doesn’t have to improve too much to have a chance.

The Conductor will also use: 1,10

Race 12: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 95k

#12 On d’Oro (12/1) – Going two sprints to a route and trying turf for the first time, he can take a big step forward.

The Conductor will also use: 2,5,9

Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Churchill Downs

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Large crowd of spectators at the Kentucky Derby event at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

Nice little 30/1 double for the Conductor yesterday.  He’s going to keep playing Churchill until Saratoga, Belmont is unplayable right now. Thank god it’s the weekend, Let’s Ride.

 

Race 1: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.MC 40000

#7 Windy City Kitty (6/1) – This filly’s sire is winning at a whopping 42% clip with 1st time starters. The Conductor also likes her work tab.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 50000n2L

#4 Grit to Glory (3/1) – Lightly raced and dropping back to the claiming ranks, he has the most upside.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. F.MC 20000

#1 Princess Kiah (10/1) – 1st time blinkers, her race two starts back gives her every chance. The rail has good in routes.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 95k

#12 Crossing the Moon (8/1) – This colt is well-bred, and the Conductor loves to see a bullet work two back followed by a slow one leading into the debut. He’s ready to run.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 97000n1x

#7 Domonette (6/1) – Stretching out to a route, she will get a favorable trip all alone on the lead.  This race has absolutely no pace.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. OClm 10000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Greeleys Charm (8/1) – This old man is very consistent and ran a strong 2nd last time at this level closing into a slow pace. The M/L price would be an absolute treat.

churchill downs

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. Clm 20000

#1 Sharp Witted (5/1) – 3rd off the layoff and shortening back to a sprint, trainer Tom Amoss is winning at a 40% clip dropping horses more than 2 class levels this year.

Race 8: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

#7 Mister Maestro (7/2) – 2nd off the layoff, the Conductor sees him cycling up to his best self.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. Clm 40000

#1 Commandeering (10/1) – He set a hot pace for this level last start and is cutting back to a sprint. His race 3 back gives him every chance and the Conductor will key him in the exacta and trifecta.

Race 10: 1 Mile. OC 75000n1x

*Never a Doubt Friday Night Bottle Service Lock of the Day #1A High Crime (5/2) – If this colt draws into this Churchill field, he’s your winner.

churchill downs

Race 11: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 95k

#2 Wildlife (12/1) – This well-bred daughter of Animal Kingdom caught a sloppy track in her debut. The Conductor will take a swing trying what she wants today.