The Conductor was heinous at Churchill yesterday, but it was a classic bait and switch. He got all his losers out of the way and saved his winners for the mandatory pick 6 payout today. What a smart Conductor, Let’s Ride.
Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 97000n1x
*Gullet Shot of the Day #10 Salvator Mundi (10/1) – This is a very tough race to start the sequence and the Conductor will be spreading. This colt is the price horse he likes most. 2nd off the layoff and getting back to the turf, he just missed being a Grade 3 winner by a head last year. That’s by far the best effort in this group to date.
The Conductor will also use: 1,2,4,8,11,12
Race 8: 7 Furlongs. 120K Kelly’s Landing Stakes
#7 Petrov (6/1) – The Conductor will include a price with the favorite. This horse ran a good 2nd vs similar last start and has gotten better with each start this year. His win at Saratoga last summer gives him a chance.
The Conductor will also use: 1
Race 9: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 104000n1x
The Conductor is going to play against the heavy favorite #12 Om (2/1) in this spot. Drawn to the outside, his weapon is speed going longer, cutbacks don’t work on the turf like they do in dirt.
The Conductor will use: 1,2,5,7,8,9,10
Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.125K Debutante Stakes
*Never a Doubt Pick 6 Single Lock #7 Magic Dance (8/5) – You couldn’t ask for much more in her debut. She would have to take a step backwards to be beat today. The Conductor will take a stand.
Race 11: 6 Furlongs. G3 Bashford Manor Stakes
#2 Snell Yea (8/1) – The Conductor liked how hard he tried last start and he doesn’t have to improve too much to have a chance.
The Conductor will also use: 1,10
Race 12: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 95k
#12 On d’Oro (12/1) – Going two sprints to a route and trying turf for the first time, he can take a big step forward.
We were out early and often in the pick 6 yesterday in Belmont. Not great, but Churchill has a hell of a card today for a Thursday. There is always another race in 20 minutes, that’s why the Conductor loves this game. Full fields and juicy prices in Louisville, the train will roll right in and fire away. Let’s Ride.
Race 1: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 95k
#8 Weekend Fun (7/2) – Drawn well to the outside, the Conductor loves this girl’s work tab for top connections. She showed her hand in tat bullet work at Keeneland May 25th.
Race 2: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) OC 100000b
*Never a Doubt Thursday Night Stew Lock of the Day #2 Mr. Misunderstood (4/5) – The Conductor wanted to play against him off the layoff, but he looks too classy against this group.
Race 3: 1 Mile. F.OClm 10000
#8 Big Blue Magic (7/2) – Stepping up in class, she’s in great form and looks to get a favorable trip up close to a slow pace.
Race 4: 6 Furlongs. MC 40000
#1 Replete (12/1) – Cutting back to a sprint after setting a scorching pace for this level last time, the Conductor will key her in the exacta and trifecta.
Race 5: 1 Mile. F.OC 75000n1x
*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Kim K (6/1) – 2nd off the layoff, this girl stretches out to a mile and has shown she has talent, breaking her maiden in a stakes race. Anything above 4/1 will get the Conductor tingly inside.
Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 97000n1x
#3 Kaziranga (12/1) – The Conductor liked the way this colt split horses and finished in his win last start. He’s steadily progressing, and he didn’t have a favorable setup last time, it was a moderate pace he closed into.
Race 7: 7 Furlongs. OC 62500n2x
#10 Tiznoble (8/1) – 3rd off the layoff and working well, he’s stepping up in class, but his figures fit and he is ultra-consistent. He looks to get a perfect stalking trip just behind the front-runners.
Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. MC 20000
#1 Grand Roayale (12/1) – Maiden claimers going this far? Who the hell knows. This 1st time gelding has upside stretching out to a route for the 1st time.
The Conductor sucked yesterday at Churchill, not what we wanted heading into the weekend. However, we have nice weather today and a chance to make some scores. The Conductor will focus his attention on the late pick 4’s in Louisville and Belmont. Let’s Ride.
Belmont Park Late Pick 4
Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 50000s
This is a spread race for the Conductor, but he’s going to TOSS the morning line favorite #10 Xanthique (5/2) drawn to the far outside.
He’ll use #1 Tizaprincessa (8/1), #4 Sun Summers (7/2), #6 Cockstrikestwelve (6/1), #7 Zandora (8/1), and #9 the Nine O (4/1).
Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. S.Alw 66000n1x
#7 The Big Lebanese (5/1) – Cutting back to a sprint, he looks to get a perfect trip today with plenty of speed to run at. He hasn’t gotten the setup in his prior sprints.
The Conductor will also use #5 Elios Milos (2/1) and #9 Smokin Platinum (3/1).
#4 Nova Sol (5/2) – 2nd off the layoff, she ran very well last start in the Hilltop after a troubled trip. Chad Brown will in this race.
The Conductor will also use #6 Blowout (2/1)
Race 10: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) S.MC 40000
*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Hudson Overpass (12/1) – He split the field vs tougher in his debut and ran sneaky well last time at this level. He dueled, setting a hot pace early and was only beaten 3 ½ lengths even though he finished 10th.
The Conductor will also use #3 Blue Parrot (10/1), #6 Champagne Chiils (4/1) and #7 Jack the Cat (6/1).
Churchill Downs Late Pick 4
Race 8: 1 Mile. F.OC 80000b
#7 In the Mood (6/1) – She ran a very good 2nd last time setting a hot at this level. She’s working even better leading in to today.
The Conductor will also use #2 Clever Serve (5/1) and #3 Devine Queen (7/2).
Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) OC 62500n2x
#2 Altito (30/1) – He’s an absolute bomb the Conductor will use and key in the trifecta. He’s a proven winner on dirt and ran a solid 4th closing into a slow pace last time. He hasn’t had many chances on turf, but his race at Kentucky downs last fall makes him competitive in here.
The Conductor will also use #4 Cowboy Culture (6/1), #6 Dontblamerocket (4/1) and #8 Keep Quiet (5/2).
Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.Roxelana Overnight Stakes
*Never a Doubt Summer Saturday Night Lock of the Day #2 Covfefe (7/5) – The Conductor will toss #10 Mia Mischeif (8/5) and won’t use any backups in this race. This girl put on an absolute show down at Pimlico last start. She’s the goods.
Race 11: 6½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 95k
#3 Double Axel (3/1) – She ran a hard charging 2nd after a slow start in her debut. Her recent works suggest she’ll graduate today.
#11 Risky Mandate (5/1) – Is the only backup the Conductor will use.
The Conductor sucked yesterday but the card was unplayable with the rain scratches at Belmont. Meanwhile at Churchill they had 14 horse fields running with great opportunities. There off the turf again in NY, so the Conductor will take the train to Kentucky to hunt for gold. Let’s Ride.
Race 1: 5 Furlongs. F.Mdn 95k
#7 Mylastfirstkiss (4/1) – She is well bred and the Conductor loves her work tab. This is a very competitive field.
Race 2: 6 Furlongs. Clm 25000
#4 Fascilitator (5/1) – He’s lightly raced and the Conductor likes his upside in an evenly matched group.
Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 95k
*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Shippingport (12/1) – Lanerie taking the mount for such a small barn screams to the Conductor that this boy is live. He’s been working bullets as well.
Race 4: 6½ Furlongs. F.MC 10000
#1 Ladyofdragonstone (9/2) – She’s steadily progressing and fits at this level. She ran a good 2nd last time setting a hot pace going longer. The Conductor loves the cutback.
Race 5: 1 Mile. Clm 25000
*Never a Doubt Friday Night Bottle Service Lock of the Day #2 Raising the Flag (3/1) – A repeat effort of her last start throttles this field. 3/1 would be insanely generous.
Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 50000
#1 Musical American (5/1) – He likes to run 2nd, so the Conductor will mostly key him in the exacta. In his last turf race he dueled setting a hot pace and was only beaten two lengths.
Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 30000n2L
#8 General Kitten (8/1) – A 1st time gelding off a long layoff, the Conductor will take a swing in weak race. His performances on dirt give him every chance if he’s ready to run.
Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. OC 75000n1x
#9 Lemniscate (8/1) – He set the pace before fading badly in the Louisiana Derby. He’s been working well since and the Louisiana Derby is the definition of a key race. It has produced several next out stakes winners.
Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 40000b
#2 Valycove (4/1) – He’s run the best turf races in the field against the toughest competition.
Stephen Foster night is sneaky one of the Conductor’s favorite cards of the year. Always quality racing and he’s a sucker for the ponies under the lights. Let’s Ride.
Race 5: 1 1/16 Mille. G3 Matt Winn Stakes
*Never a Doubt Saturday Twilight Racing Lock of the Day #2 Mr Money (2/1) – The Conductor loved him in the Pat Day Mile last time and he romped. Hog Creek Hustle came back to win last weekend who he beat by 5 lengths as well. The Conductor will single to start the sequence.
Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) G2 Wise Dan
#4 Hot Springs (10/1) – 3rd off the layoff, he looks pointed perfectly for this spot and is 4/5 at Churchill.
#6 Siem Rep Riep (8/1) He’s the only one that wants the lead in here. His wire job last time was no fluke, he set a hot pace and finished well.
#9 Inspector Lynley (6/1) – He’s been facing classier runners than this group, the Conductor can’t leave him off his tickets.
#10 El Picaro (12/1) – He’s dominated in Chile and is shipping to America for the first time. He’s working well and if Castellano is taking the mount, he’s live.
#11 March to the Arch (6/1) – 3rd off the layoff, he’s dropping out of G1 company.
#12 Admission Office (5/1) – The one to beat, he ran huge in the G2 Dixie last time out. The #12 post is the only concern.
Race 7: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G2 Fleur de Luis Handicap
#3 Elate (8/5) – The Conductor will use #2 She’s a Julie (2/1) as a backup but will heavily press Elate. This mare is a class above.
Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. G2 Stephen Foster Stakes
*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Seeking the Soul (4/1) – If the Conductor gets 4/1 on this horse he’ll back the caboose up right to the windows. He’ll use #6 Gift Box (3/1) and #7 Tenfold (12/1) as backups.
Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Regret Stakes
Let’s get this home with these girls: #4 Varenka (4/1), #5 Hard Legacy (8/1), #7 Bella Laura (8/1), #11 Princess Carolina (4/1)
Its going to be a long two day grind at the office, Let’s Ride.
Race 1: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 50000s
#5 Tom’s Last General (9/2) – He just missed last start setting a hot pace vs similar competition. He should get a favorable trip without much other speed in here.
Race 2: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 80000n3x
#6 Magical (6/1) – This filly is making her first start of the year, but the layoff is no concern with top connections. She has an earl pace edge over this field, which is very dangerous in any sprint.
Race 3: 7 Furlongs. F.OC 75000n1x
*Never a Doubt Early Pick 5 Lock of the Day #3 Lady Kate (5/2) – Cutting back 2nd off the layoff after pressing a hot pace vs Grade 1 company, she’s going to bury them.
Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 100k
#4 Heirloom Kitten (12/1) – The Conductor doesn’t particularly like the runners with experience in here and he likes this colt’s work tab.
Race 5: 7 Furlongs. F.G2 Eight Belles Stakes
*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Bizwhacks (20/1) – She ran sneaky good in the Ashland last start and is steadily progressing. The Conductor loves the cutback and will key her in the trifecta.
The posts were drawn yesterday and the Conductor able to chart out the race. With speed drawn to the far inside and outside and Omaha Beach right in the middle, he doesn’t see how this pace doesn’t heat up. The Conductor still has a lot of work to do in the Saturday under-card, but he’s got the big boy locked up. Only 3 more sleeps, strap in, Let’s Ride.
*UPDATE – Omaha Beach has scratched which stinks for the Conductor. It won’t change his win contenders, but will hurt their prices.
Race 12: 1 1/4 Mile. G1 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve Grade I
#1 War of Will (20/1) – Rail draw and a major setback last race, he’s a straight toss for the Conductor.
#2 Tax (20/1) – The Conductor likes this colt a lot. He’s got the heart of the champion but the distance is a question. He’ll be used underneath early.
*#3 By My Standards (20/1) – He’ll be one of the four horses the Conductor will be using on top and trying to get alive to in all his bets. He’s steadily progressing with every start and the Conductor loved the way he kicked home in the Louisiana Derby. He’s working well at Churchill by all accounts.
#4 Gray Magician (50/1) – He won’t be anywhere on the Conductor’s tickets.
#5 Improbable (6/1) – An obvious contender with major talent, the Conductor is still a little undecided on him. He was restless in the gate in the Arkansas Derby and ran a solid 2nd and is working like a monster. He’ll be used in 2nd and 3rd and may be the 5th horse the Conductor includes on top.
*UPDATE– The Conductor is definitely using him on top.
#6 Vekoma (20/1) – Winner of the Bluegrass, he took advantage of a speed biased race track and the Conductor doesn’t like his action. The Conductor doesn’t see him hitting the board.
#7 Maximum Security (10/1) – He romped in the Florida Derby and is a legitimate contender, but if he wins, the Conductor will lose. He still hasn’t proven he can take early pace pressure and still finish. He’ll only be used underneath.
*#8 Tacitus (10/1) – He’s the Conductor’s 2nd favorite colt in here. His Wood performance was very impressive, winning after getting slammed and checked going to the first turn. He proved he can overcome trouble and that is a major key in a 20-horse field. He’ll be used on top.
#9 Plus Que Parfait (30/1) – The Conductor won’t use him anywhere.
#10 Cutting Humor (30/1) – He has strong late pace figures and has an outside shot to run 3rd or 4th but no higher.
#11 Haikal (30/1) – Same analysis as #10 Cutting Humor
#12 Omaha Beach (4/1) – *SCRATCHED The Derby favorite and rightfully so. He’s been tough as nails, turning away grade 1 winners in his last two preps. The Conductor sees him running a solid race, but will be up in the teeth of what he sees as a hot early pace. One of the Conductor’s horses will pass him late.
#13 Code of Honor (15/1) – He had no chance trying to close into a tepid place in the Florida Derby. The Conductor can see him rounding out the bottom of the tri or super.
***#14 Win Win Win (15/1) – Exiting the Bluegrass Stakes he’s the Conductor’s top pick in this year’s running of the roses. He got absolutely stopped on the turn at Keeneland and still re-rallied against a speed favoring track for a game 2nd. He’ll appreciate the added distance and will have pace to run at. The Conductor sees him sitting mid pack and engulfing them at a big price down the stretch. Kick Home!
#15 Master Fencer (50/1) – Toss
*#16 Game Winner (5/1) – The 4th horse the Conductor will absolutely use in the horizontal wagers and the Baffert the Conductor like most. He’s was wide on both turns in the Santa Anita Derby and galloped out past Roadster despite getting nailed before the wire. He can run all day and is battle tested.
#17 Roadster (6/1) – He had a perfect trip in the Santa Anita Derby and the Conductor doesn’t see him getting another one from the 17 post. He has talent, but the Conductor will only use him underneath.
#18 Long Range Toddy (30/1) – He ran a dud in the slop last time and it looks like there will be rain in Louisville Saturday. He’ll drop to the back and make one run, the Conductor will only use him in 3rd and 4th.
#19 Spinoff (30/1) – The Conductor likes him, but he’ll have to expend a lot of energy early to get position going into the first turn. He’ll be in the mix when the turn for home, but the Conductor doesn’t see him getting his picture taken. Underneath for sure tho.
#20 Country House (20/1) – He’ll be coming from the back of the back, again no better than 3rd.
#21 Bodexpress (30/1) – He benefited from being up close to a slow pace in the Florida Derby. From the far outside the Conductor can’t see him running better than 4th.
Top Pick: #14 Win Win Win (15/1)
Winning Contenders: #3 By My Standards (20/1), #5 Improbable (6/1), #8 Tacitus (10/1), #14 Win Win Win (15/1), #16 Game Winner (5/1)
The Conductor’s Derby Stakes Under-card analysis will be up tomorrow.
Full card plays will be up Friday, but the Conductor is generously giving us his contenders in the feature races on the Oaks card. Nothing like hitting the pick 4,5 and 6 Friday so we can unload on Saturday. Let’s Ride.
Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F. G3 Edgewood Stakes
#1 Newspaperofrecord (3/5) – This super filly is making her 1st start of the year, but she can’t possibly lose. The ground will have some cut in it as well, which she’s proven to relish.
#1 McKinzie (8/5) and #8 Seeking the Soul (5/2) look to be the only two contenders to the Conductor.
*UPDATE – Upon Further Review the Conductor will also use #6 Instilled Regard (8/1) as a backup.
Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. G1 La Troienne Stakes
#1 She’s a Julie (7/2), #2 Blue Prize (3/1) and #9 Secret Spice (3/1) are all logical contenders that have big chances, but the Conductor has a price he will key in the exacta and trifecta and use in the horizontal wagers.
#7 Teresa Z (15/1) – This mare is a closer and looks to get a nice setup with lots of speed signed on in this one. She impressed the Conductor last fall and looks primed to run a top effort 2nd off the layoff. She’s done her best running on a wet surface as well and the forecast calls for rain like every derby weekend.
Race 9: 7 Furlongs. OC 62500n2x
This is the most open race in the sequence and the Conductor will likely spread wide and deep unless number #15 Soul Streit (2/1) gets into the field. He’ll be tough to beat. #7 Solid Wager (5/2) is a solid favorite but can be beaten.
#12 Fuel the Burn (20/1) – The Conductor’s favorite bomb in the race is this horse exiting a solid win at Keeneland. Winner of 3 of his last 4, he’s become a new animal on the dirt. His figures fit against this group and the Conductor sees a peak performance coming 2nd off the layoff.
#6 World of Trouble (1/1) – He’s the best turf sprinter in the country period. The Conductor will likely single but may use a saver with #8 Undrafted (8/1) and #9 Will Call (10/1). He can see a scenario where #1 Bound for Nowhere (3/1) makes World of Trouble go too quick on the lead and give the two best closers a shot down the lane.
Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. F. G1 Longines Kentucky Oaks
In the feature race of the day, the Conductor is going to TOSS the favorite Bellafina (2/1). She’s been beating up on nobodies in California and this looks like a complete pace meltdown on paper. The Conductor will look for contenders who can pass horses down the lane.
He’ll use #1 Out for a Spin (15/1), #3 Lady Apple (20/1), #10 Champagne Anyone (6/1), #11 Jeltrin (15/1), #14 Restless Rider (6/1) and #15 Dunbar Road (5/1) and #16 Point of Honor (20/1) if there are scratches and they draw in.
UPDATE: The Conductor will also be using #2 Chocolate Kisses (20/1)