Tag: churchill downs

Kentucky Derby Saturday: Best Bets and Analysis

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A group of racehorses running at high speed during the Kentucky Derby event.

Raging Sea made it a solid Oaks Friday for the Conductor. But Oaks Friday just determines the amount of coal you have to fire on Saturday. Let’s make it a Derby Day to remember. Skip.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 125000n1x

#3 Valentinian (6/1) – This colt has impressed the Conductor in his first two starts. He’s closed into slow paces and run huge late pace figures. His last race at Keeneland was against an inside speed bias too. The only horse who can beat him in the race is #5 Goal Oriented (4/1). He’s a Baffert monster that looked like the goods on debut.

Race 4: 1 Mile. Knicks Go Overnight Stakes

#12 Patriot Spirit (8/1) – This colt got caught in a wicked pace duel stretching out in distance last time. He has numbers to run back to that can win this race, and he looks primed to run his best shortening back to a mile. Patriot Spirit should get an ideal outside stalking trip and pounce as they enter the stretch.

Race 6: 1 Mile. G2 Pat Day Mile

#2 Built (7/2) – This colt made an early move into a hot pace going longer in the Louisiana Derby last time. Now he finally gets off the Derby trail and cuts back to a more favorable distance for him. The Conductor thinks he’s the most talented runner in the field and 7/2 or better is more than fair.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. F.G1 Derby City Distaff

#2 Kopion (8/1) – This morning line is terrible. Kopion will probably vie for favoritism in the 3/1 range. Even so, the Conductor thinks she lays over this field. The other contenders are coming off layoffs hoping to fire their best while Kopian is in razor sharp form.

Race 12: 1 1/14 G1 Kentucky Derby

After scratches, there are only 7 contenders that can win this race. #3 Final Gambit (15/1), #5 American Promise (12/1), #7 Luxor Cafe (9/1), #8 Journalism (7/2), #18 Sovereignty (9/1) and #21 Baeza (18/1).

Journalism is certainly the one to beat, and Sovereignty is no slouch as well. At the current prices however, the Conductor is going to play #21 Baeza (18/1). He’s improving with each start and trainer John Shirreffs takes his time developing his horses. He had a wide trip in the Santa Anita Derby and was very game when Journalism came running in the stretch. He gets a dirt rider upgrade to Prat today and the Conductor trusts he can work out a trip despite the far outside post. The Conductor sees him taking the lead as they turn for home and it will be up to the closers to run him down. At 18/1 the Conductor will certainly pay to find out.

Kentucky Oaks Friday: Best Bets and and Analysis

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A group of horses racing on a grassy track during a horse racing event with spectators in the background.

Derby weekend is already here. Two days of stacked cards and great betting opportunities. Just remember, you can win a lot more money Saturday when you stack coal on Friday. Skip

Race 3: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 120k

#3 Profound (4/1) – This filly was hammered at the windows in her debut at Saratoga last summer and had a terrible trip. Now she returns on Derby Day with a nice inside draw and gets Lasix for the first time. The DeVaux barn is heating back up and this filly will show her true ability today.

#12 Moon Channel (6/1) – This filly ran a monster 2nd last time at Keeneland. She started slow, but closed well for 2nd into a tepid pace. The post is a concern today, but she can’t be ignored off her debut.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G1 Fasig-Tipton La Troienne Stakes

#4 Raging Sea (9/2) – The Conductor sees Chad Brown taking down #2 Thorpedo Anna (2/5) today. The other Chad Brown runner, #5 Randomized (6/1), will be used as a rabbit to soften up Thorpedo Anna early. Raging Sea should sit a dream trip and pull off the upset.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.Modesty G3 Modesty Stakes

#7 She Feels Pretty (6/5) – Not a big price, but the Conductor thinks this filly is a cinch. She’s a monster and always runs well regardless of trip. This group can’t beat her.

Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G1 Longines Kentucky Oaks

#14 Quietside (8/1) – With the scratch of #8 Five G (12/1), this race doesn’t have as much pace as anticipated. This helps Quietside as she should be able to get into a good outside stalking position heading into the first turn. As long as she doesn’t get hung 4-wide, she should be in an ideal spot. She’s sitting at 9/1 right now in the win pool and that’s a major overlay for the Conductor. Let’s whack a square price in the Oaks and head into Saturday with ample gunpowder.

2024 Kentucky Derby Picks & Key Horses — Saturday, May 4, 2024 | Full Card Battle Plan

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Kentucky Derby

Please hold the rain off Friday and Saturday pony gods. If the slop comes, then it’s up to us foolish passengers to cap on our own. We don’t need that on racing’s biggest day. Here’s the Conductor’s Kentucky Derby battle card. Skip.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) G2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Our Shot (10/1) – This gelding drew the 10 post last time in the Shakertown Stakes and it cost him. He made a massive 5-wide move on the turn and the Conductor was impressed that he was able to sustain his run for 4th. The Conductor would argue he could have won that race with a cleaner trip and we’ll find out if he’s right today. Our Shot gets a better post and is taking on many of the same foes. Best of all, he’ll be a better price.

2024 Kentucky Derby

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes

#2 Walkathon (10/1) – This is a very weak Grade 2 field in the Conductor’s opinion. #11 Coppice (5/1) is the clear class of the group, but she draws a tough post and will be a short price while making her first start in the US. Of the Americans, the Conductor likes Walkathon quite a bit. She showed real talent in 2022 and is finally rounding back into form. She just missed two back and ran better than it looks last time taking on tougher. Walkathon ran evenly in the G1 Jenny Wily in a complete merry go round race, with the winner going gate to wire. She looks to get a much more favorable trip here, saving ground and stalking a contested early pace. Most importantly, she’ll finally get Leparoux off her back. Hernandez hops aboard and she will appreciate the better pilot.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. G1 Churchill Downs Stakes

#4  Mr. Wireless (6/1) – This gelding ran admirably last year routing, he just couldn’t quite finish off his races. He was crying for a cutback to one turn and got his wish last time off the bench. He obliterated an allowance field and ran a speed figure that can put him in the winner’s circle today. Making his 2nd start off the layoff, the Conductor doesn’t see how you can’t bet this horse if this morning line is close to accurate.

Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. G1 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic

#1 Integration (5/1) – This colt handled the some of the contenders in here last year and his form has been muddied since. He’s had two tough trips in a row and now the Conductor is buying while many less skilled passengers will be selling. Last time in the Makers Mark Mile, he made a strong move while wide to get up for 3rd over a yielding turf course, at a distance too short for him. Now making his 3rd start of the year with a nice rail draw, he’s going to fire a peak effort.

Race 12: 1 1/4 Mile. 1 1/4 Kentucky Derby

#17 Fierceness (5/2) – The 2024 Kentucky Derby goes through one horse. He is significantly faster than this field and if he runs his race it’s over. However, he’s thrown in two bad races when circumstances haven’t gone his way. The Conductor is normally allergic to chalk and it’s hard to stomach short price on a horse who has shown flaws. He’s just so much more talented than this group. The way to play this Derby is to single and press him on top of most of your tickets, and then have a few backups that don’t have him hitting the board. He’s either going to dominate or finish 10th. More likely than not Fierceness gets a patented Johnny V Ride pressing a moderate pace and wins this race handily.

#2 Sierra Leone (3/1) – If you’re betting this horse to win, then you need to find a new game. He is a solid closer but is not in the same league as Fierceness and will be a similar price. He is likely to hit the board, but if Sierra Leone wins the Conductor will spend his Saturday night in the sewer.

#4 Catching Freedom (8/1) – You need to be very weary of the two improving Brad Cox runners in here. Catching Freedom showed a nice turn of foot in the Louisiana Derby and will be finishing well late.

#7 Honor Marie (20/1) – This Colt was outkicked by Catching Freedom last time, but still ran a solid late pace figure closing into a moderate pace. He will have no problem getting the distance and the Conductor will use him underneath in the verticals at a big price.

#8 Just A Touch (10/1) – He’s the other Brad Cox horse and the most likely to jump up and upset Fierceness in the Conductor’s opinion. Stretching out in distance last time he pressed a blistering pace in the Bluegrass and did well to hold onto 2nd. The Conductor doesn’t see the pace being too hot in this Kentucky Derby and this colt is moving in the right direction.

#11 Forever Young (10/1) – If you remember last year’s Kentucky Derby, the Conductor touted the Japanese invader Derma Sotogake. He missed the break and still finished 6th that day and then went on to finish 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (So the Conductor was right all along although he got nothing to show for it). Japan has the best racing in the world today and they have another solid horse shipping in this year. The Conductor will certainly be using Forever Young underneath Fierceness and he can win if Fierceness flops. A Japanese horse is going to win a Kentucky Derby sooner rather than later.

#15 Domestic Product (30/1) – This is the bomb the Conductor is most intrigued by. He’s yet to run a fast speed figure, but that’s only because he’s been closing into insanely slow paces. The Tampa Bay Derby was a complete crawl up front and Domestic Product still passed 5 horses to win easy. His late pace figures are enormous and Irad will likely put him in a position to run his best. He can light up the exotics.

2024 Kentucky Oaks Picks & Key Horses — Friday, May 3, 2024 | Churchill Downs Full Card

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Kentucky Oaks

Chop Chop made it a positive closing day at Keeneland last Friday. The Conductor has been in the train station since, grinding over tape for the upcoming Kentucky Oaks and Derby weekend. At this point he is salivating and ready to rip Churchill Downs’ gullet out. The only thing that could throw a wrench in his plans is the weather. Please pony gods keep if fast and firm for Friday and Saturday. Mr. Ductor begs of you. He’ll do the rest. Skip.

Race 3: 1 Mile. OC 80000n2x

#5 Injunction (5/1) – This gelding ran much better than it looks last time on turf, with a heinous ride and trip. He was parked 3-wide and uncovered the whole way around and still hung on for 4th. Now making his 3rd start off the layoff he switches back to dirt where he’s run his best races. Injunction has plenty of numbers to run back to that can beat this field and looks to be rounding into form nicely. He’ll get the train in motion.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G1 Fasig-Tipton La Troienne

#4 Idiomatic (6/5) – Nothing creative here in the first Grade 1 of the day. This is a strong field, but the Conductor trusts the reigning Distaff champ and Brad Cox at Churchill Downs. This mare will get the job done.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. G2 Alysheba Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Call Me Fast (20/1) – The Conductor thinks this bomb can win this race and will certainly be his key in the verticals. He had a perfect prep off the bench at Keeneland last time sprinting. He had a wide trip behind a slow pace and ran a solid 4th. With that race under his belt, Call Me Fast now stretches out to a route and gets a massive rider upgrade from Leparoux to Prat. His figures last year routing fit with this group and with a favorable trip he his dangerous.

Kentucky Oaks Churchill Downs

Race 10: 1 1 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 Edgewood Stakes

#6 Pounce (10/1) – This filly was bet to favoritism last time in the G2 Appalachian. Her poor performance that day can be completely excused. She was hung wide and pressing a quick pace around both turns and had absolutely no chance. The Conductor is a bit surprised Castellano is still aboard her after that journey. She draws a much better post here and is guaranteed to get a much improved trip. If she is indeed double digit odds, Pounce is a massive overlay. She has as good a chance as any in this evenly matched field.

Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G1 Longines Kentucky Oaks

#3 Where’s My Ring (15/1) – This is a contentious running of the Oaks and the Conductor is having a difficult time separating the top contenders. However, this filly is certainly the value of the race if she is near this morning line price. She handled a weak field in the Gazelle Stakes last time and is being overlooked. The Conductor likes her steady progression this year and she’s the only filly in the field with a win at this 1 1/8 mile distance.  While this field is contentious, it’s not a very fast Kentucky Oaks group speed figure wise. Another incremental step forward for Where’s My Ring along with a good trip and she can get light up the tote at a juicy number.

Kentucky Oaks Friday Picks — May 5, 2023 | Oaks Day at Churchill Downs

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Two women wearing pink outfits and large decorative hats, smiling together at an event, with a black-and-white photo of an older man in a cap in between them.

Its officially Kentucky Derby week passengers and the Conductor hasn’t seen sunlight in days. I am so humbled that he bestows all of his knowledge on us for free. We truly are not worthy. Anyway, he’s crawled out of his capping lair and dropped his Kentucky Oaks Day work on my desk. Rumor has it, a Derby podcast will be up tomorrow too. Let’s pick up a couple hundred thousand Friday and roll it over into Saturday. Skip.

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Modesty Stakes

#2 Didia (5/1) – This Argentinian star has steadily improved with each start in the states. She got the job done for the Conductor last time off the bench in impressive fashion. She draws well today and the Conductor will happily back her vs the Chad Brown favorites off layoffs. If you’re looking for even more value in the trifecta, #1 Sweet Dani Girl (12/1) will be all alone on the lead an can hang round for a piece.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.300K Unbridled Sidney Stakes

#2 Salvaje (20/1) – #11 Caravel (4/5) is clearly the one to beat, but she draws a tough outside post and this race is loaded with early speed. Salvaje is steadily progressing and will get a perfect setup. She’s one of the few closers in the field and looks primed to run her best in her 2nd start off a layoff. Even if Caravel is too much for this group, she can inject value by hitting the board.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 Edgewood Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #10 Flashy Gem (10/1) – There is absolutely no speed in this Edgewood and this filly will be all alone on the lead. She romped to break her maiden on the front end last year on turf and has progressed on synthetic since. Her synthetic figures fit with this group and the Conductor sees them translating back to the turf with her breeding. Saez fits this mount perfectly too. He’ll be aggressive early and make them come and get her down the stretch.

Kentucky Oaks

Race 11: 1 1/8 F.G1 Longines Kentucky Oaks

#11 Defining Purpose (12/1) – The Conductor has a keen eye on the forecast this weekend. As of now, he thinks the rain will hold off and we’ll have a fast track on Friday. If it does rain, then erase everything you’re about to read from your small brains. This filly was beaten handily by the deserved favorite in this race, #7 Wet Paint (5/2), but both those races were on a sloppy track. Throw out those races and you can see a natural progression to her Ashland win in the form. She looks to get a nice trip again today, sitting just behind a contested early lead. The Conductor thinks she’s improving and her Ashland win wasn’t a fluke. He’ll be keying her in the verticals.

Churchill Downs Saturday Picks — April 29, 2023 | Derby Prep Weekend Best Bets

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A horse accompanied by a jockey in formal attire at Churchill Downs, showcasing the excitement of horse racing events.

Just when the Conductor gets the train rolling at Keeneland they end the meet, cowards. He’s been watching tape at Aqueduct the past few weeks in preparation for moving to New York, but with rain and terrible cards, he’s not going there quite yet. The Conductor knows its because the Derby is next week, but these cards are really pathetic for a Saturday. We’ll stay in Kentucky today and try to take advantage of the Keeneland shippers. Off to Churchill Downs we go, Skip.

Race 7: 1 1/4 Mile. F.Mdn 120k

#7 Corsini (5/2) – She broke slow and was well back behind a slow pace and speed favoring track last time. Despite that, she made up significant ground and galloped out in front of the rest after the wire. She should improve today at Churchill Downs making her second start routing and with a rider upgrade to Gaffalione.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 80000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Madrilena (6/1) – This mare has talent, but has trouble staying at the races. Her two best races have come on turf and she gets back the lawn today. Corrales gets back in the saddle, who’s ridden her best. She looks to get a great trip sitting just behind a contested lead. If she can run anything close to her last turf race at Kentucky Downs, she wins.

Churchill Downs

Race 10: 1 1/16  Mile. MC 30000

#2 Navy Cross (20/1) – In this wide open maiden claimer, the Conductor will take a swing with a bomb. This gelding broke slow per usual last time, but ran decent after that making up some distance on the leaders. He gets a rider upgrade to Lanerie today and he’ll save ground all the way around. Navy Cross will be finishing late while many are tiring late. If he’s not miles back early the Conductor’s knee will start to twitch.

Belmont Park, Churchill Downs and Parx: Conductor Key Horses

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A racehorse with a jockey wearing a white and green uniform competing at the Louisiana Derby.

We’re heading into the weekend without the coal we had last week, but what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. Great cards across the country this Saturday, headlined by the Pennsylvania Derby at Parx. Let’s Ride.

Belmont Park:

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 80000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Tiple (12/1) – This mare does her best running over this Belmont turf course and she ran well off the bench last time, closing wide into a slow pace. She’s primed for a top effort today and she’ll be a nice number.

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Churchill Downs:

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. 1 3/16 Mile. Bourbon Trail Stakes

#6 Bourbon Thunder (5/1) – The Ductor will be deep into the Bourbon trail when this race kicks off tomorrow if he has his way. This colt was pace compromised in a duel last time and ran very well closing into a slow pace two back. The Ductor thinks he has a major chance and he’s heavily against #4 King Fury (6/5) at a short price.

Parx:

Race 11: 1 1/6 Mile. F.G1 Cotillion Stakes

#8 Always Carina (6/1) – She didn’t get the lead last time and was disappointing. However, she’s shown she’s better routing and will get the lone lead in here. She still has plenty of room for improvement and has shown she’s talented. The Ductor will back her to wire them if she’s near this morning line.

Race 12: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 Pennsylvania Derby

#7 Hot Rod Charlie (5/2) – He’s a stud and the Ductor can’t knock him. He looks to get a perfect trip pressing #5 Midnight Bourbon (5/1) as well.

#2 Keepmeinmind (8/1) – The Ductor has chased this colt a billion times and would have 10 ranches if he edged out Essential Quality two back. He was pace compromised last time, and the Ductor still thinks he has upset potential.

#10 Americanrevolution (15/1) – He’s taking a major step up in class, but that is a serious time he ran going this distance at Saratoga last time. He’s unproven, but is the one that can light up this tote board.

Churchill Downs: Key Horses for Saturday, May 29

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Horses racing at Churchill Downs with spectators in the grandstands during an event.

2/2 with 13/1 and 4/1 winners yesterday at Belmont. We are not worthy passengers. The Ductor is too good for us. I just bought 100 t-shirts at full price to thank him for his services, its the least I can do.Mother nature is the only thing that can slow down the Ductor at Belmont, so he’ll turn his attention to Churchill Downs today. Stakes racing all day. Skip

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Churchill Downs Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Shawnee Stakes

#2 La Renoleta (8/1) – #7 Envoutante (4/5) is the clear one to beat, but if there is anyone that could surprise in this field is the #2. Undefeated in Argentina, she romped in her US debut then something went wrong and she didn’t do much running in her comeback effort. She’s working fast entering today and the Conductor thinks we see her real self in this one.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.Regret G3 Regret Stakes

#7 Gam’s Mission (5/1) – Her only loss was in her debut to Aunt Pearl and the Ductor really liked her last win. She had to wait behind horses then exploded down the stretch and galloped out nicely. She is steadily progressing and could be a nice one.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. Matt Winn-G3

#2 Helium (5/2) – He let the Ductor down in the Derby, but he didn’t run poorly there. He should get the job done today.

Churchill Downs Race 10: 6 Furlongs. AristidesL150K

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Mojo Man (10/1) – The most intriguing stakes on the card from a betting perspective, the Conductor sees the pace heating up in this one and this gelding will be finishing late. He’s exiting a tougher race and ran well last time despite breaking poorly. With a cleaner trip today, the Conductor thinks he has every chance.

Churchill Downs

Churchill Downs: Late Pick 4 Key Horses for Friday, November 27

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Entrance of Churchill Downs featuring a horse statue and the Kentucky Derby Museum.

Some nice prices at Churchill Downs hand Del Mar yesterday. The Conductor will hit Kentucky and California again today, then back to a full slate tomorrow.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Alw 87000n1x

#1 O Seraphina (7/2) – She got cooked in a hot pace last time and is now stretching back out to a route. 2nd off the layoff, she’ll be fit and will have a more favorable pace scenario today.

#7 Longpants Required (10/1) – This filly ran a very strong late pace figure in a race taken off the turf last time. If you ignore her turf races, she fits with this group at a big price.

Race 9: 1 Mile. OC 80000n3x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Casino Star (8/1) – He’s been running behind real racehorses in his last few and hasn’t disgraced himself. He gets major class relief today despite staying at the same level.

Churchill Downs

Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 Clark Stakes

#8 Bodexpress (8/1) – All his monster races have come at Gulfstream Park West, which is a concern, but will help his price. There is no denying his early pace advantage in here. Right to the front and hold on for dear life.

#3 Code of Honor (3/1) – He’s the most likely winner in the Conductor’s opinion

Race 11: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 85k

#7 Silverbella (9/5) – 2nd off the layoff today after a good effort last time at Churchill Downs, she’s clearly the one to beat. Her race two back crushes this field.

Churchill Downs: Thanksgiving Late Pick 4 Key Horses

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Four riders on horseback at Churchill Downs with the grandstand in the background.

Give the Conductor all the action at Churchill Downs today with a hot pot of gravy and a barrel of stew. Let’s Ride.

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. F.OC 62500n2x

#5 Casual (9/2) – She’s been off since the summer after going off form. She returns today in not too tough a spot and has the most talent and upside in the field. The Conductor will take a swing at anything near that price. Go watch her maiden race again.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. OC 80000n3x

*Double Gravy Whack of the Day #1 Strike Power (12/1) – What a great betting race this is. This horse is making his first start in the Asmussen barn off a long layoff. He’s won off long breaks before and his A effort beats this field. The Conductor must include him at that price.

#3 Bango (10/1) – He beat a strong field two back and had no chance behind Nashville last time. 3rd off the layoff today and returning to Churchill Downs, where he runs his best, the Conductor loves him here.

Churchill Downs

Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G2 Falls City Stakes

#3 Bonny South (8/5) – She ran huge last time at Churchill Downs and would have won easy with a halfway decent ride. Her race in the Alabama two back beats this field easily.

Race 11: 6½ Furlongs. Alw 87000n1x

#3 Motagally (15/1) – This colt ran a good 3rd last time pressing a hot pace routing. Cutting back to a sprint today and adding blinkers, he’s dangerous at a big number.

#6 Pirate Rick (8/1) – He’s taking a big step up in class, but nobody in this field can hang with this colt early. He’ll be on the lead by himself, which you cannot ignore.