Good bounce back Saturday for the Conductor. Let’s finish the weekend strong.
Let’s whack’em right between the eyes. Skip.
| Race | A | B | C |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| 2 | 2, 5, 7, 9 | 1, 6 | |
| 3 | 3, 7, 10 | 1, 4, 5, 6 | |
| 4 | 1, 2 | 4, 6, 9 | |
| 5 | 7 | 1 | 2, 9, 11 |
| 6 | 1 | 3, 9, 10 | |
| 7 | 2 | 6 | 1, 4, 8, 9 |
| 8 | 6, 8 | 4, 10 | 7, 13 |
| 9 | 3, 6 | 1, 2, 8, 11 |
The Conductor sucked yesterday. Let’s be honest about it. The 15/1 horse in the turf sprint that got steamed down to 6/1 after the gates opened, and then won on the lead for fun — when he’s never been on the lead in his life — really soured the Conductor on Keeneland.
It’s tough to love this game when the CAWS are in bed with the tracks and the greedy bastards don’t give a shit about the horseplayer. That’s not a game. That’s a tax collection dressed up in silks.
But the Conductor doesn’t quit. The passengers don’t quit. We show up. We cap harder. We try again. Skip.
Be wary of the rain today — there might be some late scratches. The forecast doesn’t look bad enough to take the races off the turf, but watch the board before post time. Scratches reshape this card. Adapt accordingly.
| Race | Contenders |
|---|---|
| Race 1 | 1 / 2, 4 |
| Race 2 | 3, 4 / 2, 8, 9 |
| Race 3 | 3, 7 / 1, 8, 9, 10, 12 |
| Race 4 | 2 / 7 |
| Race 5 | 9, 10, 11 / 1, 7, 8 |
| Race 6 | 3 / 4, 8 / 7, 9, 10 |
| Race 7 | 1 / 3, 4, 7 |
| Race 8 | 3, 6 / 1, 11 |
| Race 9 | 1, 5, 8 / 4, 6 |
| Race 10 | 2, 4 / 1, 3, 5 |
| Race 11 | 12 / 3, 5, 7, 10 |
Watch the scratches. Don’t chase the steam. And remember — the Conductor doesn’t owe the CAWS a damn thing. We ride at our own pace.
New passenger? Subscribe to The Conductor’s Scroll — free to board, First Class for the full weekend card. And if you want to understand what the Conductor is actually doing before he writes these, start with the beginner’s guide to handicapping a horse race.
Its Preakness week and Keeneland, Santa Anita and Belmont are all running. The train will be tested at full speed right out of the gate, just the way the Conductor likes it. With the major tracks starting tomorrow, the Conductor will preview the Preakness today:
#1 Excession (30/1) – This colt is a wild card horse and the Conductor will likely use him in 3rd and 4th in the tri and super. Coming in off a long layoff, he ran his best race last time closing for 2nd behind an early derby favorite Nadal. He will need to significantly improve to be competitive, but 3-year-olds can mature a lot from the spring to fall and we haven’t seen what this boy has become. He looks to get a good setup with a hot pace in front as well
#2 Mr. Big News (12/1) – He ran a big race in the Derby and is probably the best closer in the race. He will have pace to run at, but the Conductor doesn’t like him to be better than 3rd again.
The Conductor was going to bet this boy in the Derby, but he scratched due to a heel injury. His three recent works show the Conductor he’s feeling good and ready to roll. He looks to get a perfect trip sitting behind the early speed and he’ll be the Conductor’s win bet.
*Swiss Skydiver (6/1) – This is a very talented filly and she ran well against the boys in the Blue Grass, but Art Collector was too much. Beaten by a bomb last time and up against the pace in here, the Conductor these waters are too deep.
#5 Thousand Words (6/1) – The “other Baffert” flipped in the paddock at the Derby and was scratched. The Conductor didn’t like him that day and doesn’t like him here as he will likely be contesting a hot pace vs superior horses. He will be over bet because of connections.
#6 Jesus’ Team (30/1) – The Conductor wasn’t a fan of the Jim Dandy and he doesn’t look like he can get the distance. Jesus should have picked a better squad.
#7 Ny Traffic (15/1) – He threw in the towel early in the Derby, but lost to the Derby winner, Authentic, by a nose two back in the Haskell. He has talent and shows solid work entering today, the Conductor doesn’t know what to do with him yet.
#8 Max Player (15/1) – He’s a grinder that can run all day, but not extremely talented. He can clunk up for 3rd or 4th.
What a race he ran in the Derby, setting a hot pace and turning away Tiz the Law down the lane. His works exiting that effort lead the Conductor to believe he’s feeling good. However, the Ductor isn’t sold. That effort will be tough to repeat on a quick turnaround and while the Conductor won’t toss him. He thinks he’ll regress in the Preakness and run 2nd or 3rd.
*#10 Pneumatic (20/1) – This is the price horse that most intrigues the Conductor in here. He’s fresh, steadily progressing and looks to get a perfect stalking trip mid-pack. The Conductor has liked this horse every step of the way and ran well with troubled trips when he’s faced stakes company. He will be the Conductor’s key in the vertical wagers.
#11 Liveyourbeastlife (30/1) – He’s on the improve and has strong late pace figures. However, he looks to be a cut below this group.
The Conductor loves this Risen Star Day sequence. Let’s Ride.
The Conductor is going to get bold right off the bat and TOSS the favorite #4 Sliver Dust (5/2) in leg 1. Can he win? Absolutely, but he’s nothing special and the Conductor wasn’t impressed with the Louisiana Stakes last time. He’s going to have to deal with a hotter pace than he’s seen in his last few starts as well.
The Conductor sees #6 Hofburg (4/1) as a standout in here and will press him on most tickets. The layoff and running style are the only things not making him a stone cold single.
#1 Mocito Rojo (8/1), #2 Sleepy Eyes Todd (10/1), #10 Cutting Humor (8/1) and #11 Pirate’s Punch (10/1) are all prices the Conductor will be using in here as well.
There is going to be a very hot pace in this one and the closers will have an advantage. #2 Synchrony (3/1) and #5 Dontblamerocket (9/2) are the most logical winners but can’t be completely trusted.
#6 Classic Covey (6/1), #9 Captivating Moon (10/1), and #12 Midnight Tea Time (12/1) are others that the Conductor likes and the will get great setups.
The Conductor much prefers #6 British Idiom (8/5) to #7 Finite (2/1) and he will TOSS the #7. The Conductor will also use #3 Swiss Skydiver (8/1). His debut win was very strong and he should improve 2nd off the layoff.
The Conductor’s Div 1 Risen Star Stakes Preview
Use: #2, #5, #11
The Conductor’s Div 2 Risen Star Stakes Preview
Use: #8
Backups: #7, #10, #11
Its getting to that time of year, the first Saturday in May is going to be here faster than Conductor downing a tall glass of stew. The first major prep races are Saturday and the fields are drawn for the two divisions of the Risen Star Stakes. Last years races proved to be very key to the triple crown races. What will this year’s results bring? There are no certainties other than a lot of money going into the Conductor’s pocket. Let’s Ride.
#1 Digital (6/1) – He had a very favorable trip last time up close to a very slow pace and couldn’t get the job done. He’s not for the Conductor.
*#2 Silver Slate (4/1) – The running styles in this race are very intriguing. You have a group that have only won gate to wire and many deep closers. The ones that can lay close to the pace and get first run will have the advantage and this boy looks like he’ll get the trip. He had trouble at the break last time and rallied for a strong 2nd in the G3 Lacomte stakes. His early pace figures sprinting show that he has enough tactical speed to be in a much for favorable position early.
#3 Ready to Roll (20/1) – His maiden win was a slow-paced gate to wire victory in the slop. Pass
#4 Perfect Revenge (20/1) – He has the most experience in the field and his last two efforts on dirt have been much improved. Another step forward and he could hit the board at a massive number.
#5 Moon Over Miami (10/1) – This colt’s maiden breaker was impressive, and he had a brutal trip last time. The Conductor won’t talk you off him.
#6 Sashaahakemeup (20/1) – No excuses last time, no chance.
5/1 on a gate when he’s only proven he can win on the front end of slow paces? Suckers bet.
#8 Enforceable (7/2) – This colt is the class of the field, but do you really want a favorite that will be coming from dead last? He’s not for the Conductor.
#9 Mr Monomoy (6/1) – He should have done more with his trip in the Lecomte.
#10 Farmington Road (8/1) – He looks to get a favorable trip, but this may be asking a little too much. His win last start bodes well for #5 Moon Over Miami (10/1).
#11 Scabbard (12/1) – There is no chance this colt will go off at those odds. He’s another deep closer and will drop way back from the 12 post. That said, he has talent and upside 2nd off the layoff. If somehow he doesn’t take money at the windows the Conductor will include as a backup.
He’s Baaaaaaaaaccccccccckkkkkkkkkkk. The Conductor apologizes for his recent absence, but not really. The train went off the rails and needed some maintenance, that’s just part of ductor life. Nothing a few weeks back at the station can’t fix. You passengers didn’t think he’d miss the Pegasus World Cup did you? Silly passengers, after all this time you still can’t figure out the Conductor. Great card today at Gulfstream, big fields and the Conductor is salivating. Time to take a nice slow ride THROTTLE IT! Let’s Ride.
This is a very intriguing race to start the Pick 6 sequence. We’ll have to see if the dirt is a speed highway, but this looks like a meltdown race with a blistering pace on paper. The Conductor will turn to the closers.
#5 Phat Man (10/1) – Exiting a good 2nd last start, splitting War Story and Bode Express (who we’ll talk about later), he looks to get a great trip with Irad aboard. The Conductor will key him in the exacta as well.
#7 Tale of Silence (10/1) – He’s had time off after running a dud last start. His race two back closing into a slow pace and finishing 1 ¾ lengths behind Maximum Security makes him a must use.
Other contenders #8 Free Enterprise (4/1), #10 Gray Magician (6/1), and the Conductor can see #9 Olympic Village (20/1) hitting the board underneath.
#6 Lady Paname (3/1) – She’s clearly the one to beat from the Conductor’s perspective and will single her on most tickets. The long layoff doesn’t concern him with Chad.
#3 Kelsey’s Cross (8/1) – This filly is making her first start as a four-year-old and has sneaky back class. She’s run behind Cambier Parc and Concrete Rose and this field is much weaker than what she’s used to.
#4 Mean Mary (8/1) – She’s the controlling speed and the Conductor likes her steady progression.
Another race with what looks like a hot pace, the Conductor sees only 3.
#7 Spiced Perfection (8/5) – The heavy favorite, she’d clearly the class of the field and can dictate her own trip.
#6 Nonna Madeline (8/1) – She didn’t live up to the hype last year but took care of business in her comeback race. The Conductor thinks she has the potential to take a big step forward.
#11 Pink Sands (8/1) – This mare is going to get a good setup like she did in her last victory and loves Gulfstream.
Nothing creative, the logical contenders, no strong opinion: #1 Red Night (3/1), #7 Cross Border (9/2), #8 Pumpkin Rumble (8/1), #12 American Tattoo (7/2)
The Conductor is going to toss #12 Magic Wand (7/2) from that post. She’s classy and can win, but loves to run 2nd and will be hammered at the windows. There is a trainer named Chad Brown you may have heard of who will win this race.
#3 Without Parole (4/1) – He ran well behind Uni on Breeders Cup Day last time and the Conductor thinks he’s a cut above this field. Most of his money will go through him.
#6 Instilled Regard (10/1) – The Conductor has always been a fan of this horse and is improving on the turf.
#11 Sacred Life (12/1) – He’s a hard knocker and the Conductor will use him defensively.
This race obviously completely changed with the scratch of Omaha Beach, but the Conductor thinks its now a much better betting race.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Seeking the Soul (30/1) – He went off form last fall but has had a long time off and is training well. His 2nd behind Seeking the Soul in last years Pegasus behind City of life would win this year’s running and he has the most back class. The Conductor has a feeling he’s going to run a big one and will key him in the exacta and trifecta.
#12 Bode Express (30/1) – He won’t be that price, but he’ll be on the lone lead and has the talent to take them all the way around if he can tick off favorable fractions. He was fractious last start and went too fast early, but his race two back and run behind Maximum Security as a 3-year-old show he has the talent.
#6 Higher Power (6/1) – He ran a very good 3rd in the BC Classic and there aren’t any Vino Rosso’s or Mckinzie’s in this field.
#10 Mucho Gusto (9/2) – The Conductor can’t toss him with his form against Maximum Security.
Glad to be back.
With the chaos at Santa Anita in 2019, the Conductor took his train elsewhere and his bottom line suffered. Barring more catastrophes at the track this year, the Conductor will turn his focus back to the Great Race Place and play there almost exclusively. The California circuit is where the Conductor is at his best and he needs to tighten his scope. Santa Anita will rue the day they let the Conductor walk back in through their gates. In 2020, there will be blood, Let’s Ride.
#1 California Street (3/1) – Stretching out to a route for the 1st time 2nd off the layoff, this gelding has run against some classy runners in his last few. His bullet works entering today show the Conductor he’s ready to fire.
#7 Nomizar (4/1) – Drawn well to the outside, this filly can dictate her own trip and is working like a rocket ship.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Kittyhawk Lass (8/1) – There looks to be a scorching pace up front in this one, so the Conductor is looking for a closer. This filly is steadily progressing and has a win at the distant. She’ll be finishing late.
#8 Mulhima (20/1) – This filly is trying turf for the first time and the Conductor is intrigued that Prat takes the mount for a low % barn he rarely rides for. In his last two rides for trainer Anna Meah, he’s hit the board.
#8 Grinning Tiger (15/1) – He can fly early and his sprint efforts on grass have been his best. His race two back over this turf course came back very fast.
#4 Snap Chap (5/1) – This 1.2-million-dollar colt will improve on the stretch out. The blinkers come off today and Mike Smith stays aboard.
#3 Don V. (15/1) – A price to include at least underneath. This colt is well bred to route and trainer David Hofmans can pop with 1st timers. He was 17% with a +$0.65 ROI last year with debut runners.
Happy Thanksgiving you filthy passengers. The Conductor has plenty to be thankful for in his life. He hopes you have a glorious day with friends and family. Time to stuff our gullets and our wallets at Churchill, Let’s Ride.
#2 Ballard High (8/1) – This colt doesn’t often win, but always shows up. His figures fit in here and the Conductor will key him in the exacta.
#6 Holiday Stone (12/1) – He won nicely last time cutting back to a turf sprint for the first time. He’s won two in a row and the Conductor sees him thriving at this distance.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Peppered (15/1) – Dropping in class and cutting back to a sprint, the Conductor guarantees he runs in the trifecta.
#7 House Limit (5/1) – There are no limits in the Conductor’s house.
#6 Sally’s Curlin (3/1) – Winner of her last three, she’s on the improve and running massive late pace figures.
#2 Tight Ten (15/1) – This colt showed talent as a 2-year-old at Churchill and hasn’t run a good race this year. He’s had some time off since his last start, is working consistently, and Asmussen keeps him protected vs allowance company. All are positive signs.
#11 Starship Jubilee (6/5) – She looks like a standout in here, but the Conductor will key #3 Tweety Show (50/1) and #12 Area (30/1) at monster numbers in the trifecta.
Nothing like holiday racing. Avoiding your “normal” family with a glass of stew in the basement and firing away on ponies and football/basketball with your degenerate cousins and uncles. Beautiful day at Aqueduct indeed, Let’s Ride.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Bobbyfromthepalm (8/1) – He took money at the windows in his debut vs tougher at Saratoga. 1st off the claim for George Weaver, he’s working well and stretches out to a route for the first time.
#4 Princess Victoria (3/1) – This mare pressed a hot pace vs tougher last time. Third off the layoff today and dropping in class, the Conductor loves her.
#5 Riot Worthy (15/1) – She’s unlikely to win, but there will be a highly contested lead in this race. She will get a favorable trip and the Conductor will key her in 2nd and 3rd at a big number.
#7 Hudson Overpass (7/2) – He has a strong early pace edge over this group.
#4 Science Fiction (6/1) – Dropping to the claiming ranks and getting a rider upgrade to Alvarado, she loves the Aqueduct dirt.
#2 Implied Volatility (4/1) – Stepping up in class, he’s run well in his first two starts under different circumstances. He has the most upside in the field.
#7 Turned Aside (7/2) – This colt pressed a scorching pace vs stakes company last time. With a good draw today, he’ll be tough to beat.
#5 Foolish Living (5/2) – After scratches, she looks like an easy winner.
#10 Lawn Boy (10/1) – The Conductor will take a swing with the Castellano brothers teaming up.
The day of reckoning is upon us at Aqueduct. Let’s Ride.
#4 Casper Slew (5/2) – 2nd off the layoff, this colt is steadily progressing and Jose Ortiz hops aboard. He’s working well and looks to get a great trip up close to a moderate pace.
#8 Chouchou de Boo (8/1) – She ran well in her debut at a huge number in a race taken off the turf. She should move up on the grass an Castellano takes the mount.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Tempers Way (8/1) – Getting back on the turf, she’s the only girl who wants the lead in year. She has a major chance to wire this field.
#3 Sir Ballantine (6/1) – Cutting back to a sprint, he’ll be flying late and loves the Aqueduct surface.
#2 Celebration (6/1) – He has an early pace edge over this group, which is always dangerous in a turf sprint.
#1 Telephone Talker (2/1) – This colt ran very well in his debut sprinting on turf and is bred to be even better on the lawn.
#3 Nakamura (10/1) – He keeps running well regardless of having slow paces to close into. He has huge late pace figures and looks to get a fairer setup today.
