Tag: featured

Preakness Preview

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Its Preakness week and Keeneland, Santa Anita and Belmont are all running. The train will be tested at full speed right out of the gate, just the way the Conductor likes it. With the major tracks starting tomorrow, the Conductor will preview the Preakness today:

#1 Excession (30/1) – This colt is a wild card horse and the Conductor will likely use him in 3rd and 4th in the tri and super. Coming in off a long layoff, he ran his best race last time closing for 2nd behind an early derby favorite Nadal. He will need to significantly improve to be competitive, but 3-year-olds can mature a lot from the spring to fall and we haven’t seen what this boy has become. He looks to get a good setup with a hot pace in front as well

#2 Mr. Big News (12/1) – He ran a big race in the Derby and is probably the best closer in the race. He will have pace to run at, but the Conductor doesn’t like him to be better than 3rd again.

*#3 Art Collector (5/2) – The Conductor was going to bet this boy in the Derby, but he scratched due to a heel injury. His three recent works show the Conductor he’s feeling good and ready to roll. He looks to get a perfect trip sitting behind the early speed and he’ll be the Conductor’s win bet.

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*Swiss Skydiver (6/1) – This is a very talented filly and she ran well against the boys in the Blue Grass, but Art Collector was too much. Beaten by a bomb last time and up against the pace in here, the Conductor these waters are too deep.

#5 Thousand Words (6/1) – The “other Baffert” flipped in the paddock at the Derby and was scratched. The Conductor didn’t like him that day and doesn’t like him here as he will likely be contesting a hot pace vs superior horses. He will be over bet because of connections.

#6 Jesus’ Team (30/1) – The Conductor wasn’t a fan of the Jim Dandy and he doesn’t look like he can get the distance. Jesus should have picked a better squad.

#7 Ny Traffic (15/1) – He threw in the towel early in the Derby, but lost to the Derby winner, Authentic, by a nose two back in the Haskell. He has talent and shows solid work entering today, the Conductor doesn’t know what to do with him yet.

#8 Max Player (15/1) – He’s a grinder that can run all day, but not extremely talented. He can clunk up for 3rd or 4th.

#9 Authentic (9/5) – What a race he ran in the Derby, setting a hot pace and turning away Tiz the Law down the lane. His works exiting that effort lead the Conductor to believe he’s feeling good, but the Ductor isn’t sold. That effort will be tough to repeat on a quick turnaround and while the Conductor won’t toss him, he thinks he’ll regress on Saturday and run 2nd or 3rd.

*#10 Pneumatic (20/1) – This is the price horse that most intrigues the Conductor in here. He’s fresh, steadily progressing and looks to get a perfect stalking trip mid-pack. The Conductor has liked this horse every step of the way and ran well with troubled trips when he’s faced stakes company. He will be the Conductor’s key in the vertical wagers.

Key GIFs | Tenor

#11 Liveyourbeastlife (30/1) – He’s on the improve and has strong late pace figures, but he looks to be a cut below this group.

 

 

Never a Doubt

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Farewell From the Conductor, God Bless the Passengers

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A few good opinions yesterday on a chalky day at Santa Anita. The Baffert horse in the fourth looks like a freak.

The Conductor has been slacking the last few months, due to the racing slow period and some changes in his life. The Conductor doesn’t half ass anything, so ‘s decided to put the train in the station for good. They’re positive life changes, he’s not dead in a ditch (yet). He’ll keep the email thescribe@ponyconductor.com, so if you want to contact him send it that way. Maybe you’ll get some free merch in the mail (prolly not). He won’t stop firing away on the ponies and you passengers better never surrender either. Hopefully you got a few laughs and a few winners out of the deal. Always remember, if you give a man a fish, you’ll eat for a day, but if you give a man a pony, you’ll eat for a lifetime. Godspeed and the Conductor will see you at Saratoga this summer, passengers buy the stews #skip

For those who have reached out, bought apparel and supported the degenerate Conductor’s efforts, special thanks. It was a fun little run, onto the next race.

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The Conductor’s Sunday Plays at Santa Anita

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Could you be more wrong than the Conductor at the Fairgrounds yesterday? Probably not. Back to the west coast. Lat’s Ride.

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Race 1: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.Mdn 55k

#8 On Mars (6/1) – Favored last time, she got caught in a pace duel before fading. She can take a step forward trying the grass today and Mike Smith hops aboard.

Race 3: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.S.Mdn 55k

#6 Too Much Smoke (12/1) – She was well bet on debut and hasn’t shown much in two starts. She gets a major rider upgrade today and Peter Miller is 30% this year with runners making their 2nd career grass start. She could take a major step forward.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. S.OC 20000n1x

#5 Tigre Di Slugo (3/1) – 2nd off the layoff and getting off the rail today, the Conductor thinks he’ll run a big one. His debut win was very impressive.

#8 Big Barrel (20/1) – Cutting back to a sprint after pressing a hot pace going a mile last start, the Conductor sees him spicing up the exotics underneath.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.G3 Sweet Life Stakes

#4 Shines Her Light (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she looks to get a perfect trip again like she did last time in victory.

The Conductor’s All Stakes Pick 5 Preview at the Fairgrounds

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The Conductor loves this sequence. Let’s Ride.

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Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. G3 Mineshaft Stakes

The Conductor is going to get bold right off the bat and TOSS the favorite #4 Sliver Dust (5/2) in leg 1. Can he win? Absolutely, but he’s nothing special and the Conductor wasn’t impressed with the Louisiana Stakes last time. He’s going to have to deal with a hotter pace than he’s seen in his last few starts as well.

The Conductor sees #6 Hofburg (4/1) as a standout in here and will press him on most tickets. The layoff and running style are the only things not making him a stone cold single.

#1 Mocito Rojo (8/1), #2 Sleepy Eyes Todd (10/1), #10 Cutting Humor (8/1) and #11 Pirate’s Punch (10/1) are all prices the Conductor will be using in here as well.

Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) G3 Fair Grounds Stakes

There is going to be a very hot pace in this one and the closers will have an advantage. #2 Synchrony (3/1) and #5 Dontblamerocket (9/2) are the most logical winners but can’t be completely trusted.

#6 Classic Covey (6/1), #9 Captivating Moon (10/1), and #12 Midnight Tea Time (12/1) are others that the Conductor likes and the will get great setups.

Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes

The Conductor much prefers #6 British Idiom (8/5) to #7 Finite (2/1) and he will TOSS the #7. The Conductor will also use #3 Swiss Skydiver (8/1). His debut win was very strong and he should improve 2nd off the layoff.

Race 12: 1 1/8 Mile. G2 Risen Star Stakes Division 1

The Conductor’s Div 1 Risen Star Stakes Preview

Use: #2, #5, #11

Race 13: 1 1/8 Mile. G2 Risen Star Stakes Division 2

The Conductor’s Div 2 Risen Star Stakes Preview

Use: #8

Backups: #7, #10, #11

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The Conductor’s Div 2 Risen Star Stakes Preview

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Race 13: 1 1/8 Mile. Risen Star Stakes Division 2

The 2nd division of the Risen Star doesn’t deserve a horse by horse breakdown. The race looks to start and end with the heavy favorite on paper.

*#8 Anneau d’Or (9/5) – 2nd by a head in his last two races, he’s pressed hot paces against tougher and been game to the wire. Unless he doesn’t show up completely, he looks like a cut above this group.

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If you’re a passenger who refuses to take the chalk or looking to fill out the exacta with some prices, here’s two the Conductor likes.

#7 Major Fed (10/1) – This race looks to have a quicker pace than the Division 1 running, so the Conductor prefers closers underneath. This colt ran a monster late pace figure in his maiden breaker last time and his kick was visually impressive down the lane.

#10 Finnick the Fierce (10/1) – A deep closer who continues to outrun his odds without great pace setups, he will be finishing strongly. 2nd off the layoff, he should take a step forward exiting a decent 4th in the Lecomte stakes.

The Conductor’s Div 1 Risen Star Stakes Preview

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Its getting to that time of year, the first Saturday in May is going to be here faster than Conductor downing a tall glass of stew. The first major prep races are Saturday and the fields are drawn for the two divisions of the Risen Star.  Last years races proved to be very key to the triple crown races. What will this year’s results bring? There are no certainties other than a lot of money going into the Conductor’s pocket. Let’s Ride.

Race 12: 1 1/8 Mile. G2 Risen Star Stakes Division 1

#1 Digital (6/1) – He had a very favorable trip last time up close to a very slow pace and couldn’t get the job done. He’s not for the Conductor.

*#2 Silver Slate (4/1) – The running styles in this race are very intriguing. You have a group that have only won gate to wire and many deep closers. The ones that can lay close to the pace and get first run will have the advantage and this boy looks like he’ll get the trip. He had trouble at the break last time and rallied for a strong 2nd in the G3 Lacomte stakes. His early pace figures sprinting show that he has enough tactical speed to be in a much for favorable position early.

#3 Ready to Roll (20/1) – His maiden win was a slow-paced gate to wire victory in the slop. Pass

#4 Perfect Revenge (20/1) – He has the most experience in the field and his last two efforts on dirt have been much improved. Another step forward and he could hit the board at a massive number.

#5 Moon Over Miami (10/1) – This colt’s maiden breaker was impressive, and he had a brutal trip last time. The Conductor won’t talk you off him.

#6 Sashaahakemeup (20/1) – No excuses last time, no chance.

#7 Blackberry Wine (5/1) – 5/1 on a gate when he’s only proven he can win on the front end of slow paces? Suckers bet.

#8 Enforceable (7/2) – This colt is the class of the field, but do you really want a favorite that will be coming from dead last? He’s not for the Conductor.

#9 Mr Monomoy (6/1) – He should have done more with his trip in the Lecomte.

#10 Farmington Road (8/1) – He looks to get a favorable trip, but this may be asking a little too much. His win last start bodes well for #5 Moon Over Miami (10/1).

#11 Scabbard (12/1) – There is no chance this colt will go off at those odds. He’s another deep closer and will drop way back from the 12 post. That said, he has talent and upside 2nd off the layoff. If somehow he doesn’t take money at the windows the Conductor will include as a backup.

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The Conductor’s Friday Plays at Santa Anita Park

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Santa Anita is finally back in action and the Conductor has to pay for his golf trip somehow. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.Mdn 55k

#6 Squalotoro (8/1) – The Conductor likes this boy’s work tab and Puype can hit with first time starters. He’s 12% with a +$0.06 ROI this year with debut runners. The Conductor hates the M/L favorites in here.

Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.OC 50000n1x

#3 Florentine Diamond (9/2) – Whenever a 1st timer has a blowout debut win for very low % connections, the Conductor takes note. This filly may have some real talent.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) BaffleB75K

#3 Bulletproof One (2/1) – This filly can scoot early and she looks primed for a monster effort cutting back to a more preferable distance 2nd off the bench.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 75000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Wine At Sunset (10/1) – Why is Mike Smith hopping aboard a 75k claimer who didn’t show much in their debut, for a barn he rarely rides for? The Conductor smells something fishy.

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The Conductor’s Saturday Plays at Santa Anita Park

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The Conductor is very happy he’s back. Very Very happy. Let’s Ride

Race 1: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 40000n1x

#8 Queen of the Track (6/1) – She has an early pace edge over this field. 2nd off the layoff she’ll have more left in the tank late.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 80000n1x

#2 Savy Gal (3/1) – Cutting back to a sprint after pressing a hot pace routing, the Conductor loves her.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes

#1 Encoder (8/1) – Trying dirt for the first time, this colt looks to get a perfect trip saving ground from the rail with a hot pace in front to close into.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. G2 San Pasqual Stakes

#1 Roadster (7/2), #4 King Abner (4/1) – The Conductor only needs these two in a solid betting race. They have a class edge over this group.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 40000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Prima Valentina (15/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she had a troubled trip last time and this is a wide open affair. The Conductor will key her in the exact and trifecta.

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The Conductor’s Friday Plays at Santa Anita Park

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Swing in a miss yesterday. The Conductor likes today’s late pick 5 much better today, however. Here are his keys. Let’s Ride

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. F.OC 40000n1x

#1 Miss Stormy D (5/2) – Stretching out to a route for the first time, she ran better than it looks last time fighting for the lead in between horses and turning away the other speed.

#4 Meso (6/1) – The longest price in a short field, she looks to get a perfect setup with a hot pace to close into.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. MC 30000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Handsome Michael (6/1) – He ran very well last time, pressing a hot pace wide all the way around the turn. He finished behind an even money favorite and runners with much more favorable trips. The Conductor will try to get alive only to him in the last.

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