Tag: handicapping

Trachea Kick Tuesday: The Conductor’s Punts at Parx

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Parx Racing starting gate signage with colorful numbers and logo, indicating horse racing event details.

Great start to the week for the Conductor yesterday. 7/1, two 3/1 and 6/5 winners including his 3/1 lock of the day made all of us passengers happy.  The train will stay another day at Parx, time to press. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.MC 10000

#3 Dearest Ella (5/1) – She’s dropping to her lowest career level, she’s shown speed vs tougher and will be a decent price with a low % barn.

Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.Clm 7500n1y

#1 Big Red Seven (6/5) – 1st off the claim and plunging in class for top connections, she looks tough to beat.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. Clm 7500n4L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Free for Nothing (10/1) – 2nd vs tougher last start going a mile, if the Conductor gets half that price on the cutback he’ll hammer him.

parx

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. S.MC 10000

#3 Lawyer Roy (2/1) – The Conductor has seen slower groups of horses, he just cant remember when. 3rd off the layoff he must win.

Race 5: 4 ½ Furlongs. Mdn 45k

#3 Commissioner G (6/1) – 145k at auction, he’s working well and his sire wins at a 20% clip with 1st time starters.

Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.Clm 5000n1y

*Never a Doubt Taco Tuesday Lock #1 My Candy Forest (6/5) – Her early pace figures giver her a serious edge over this field.

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Race 7: 6 Furlongs. Clm 8000

#8 Draxhall Woods (8/1) – They are going to fly up front in this race and the Conductor sees this old man getting a perfect stalking trip and then pouncing.

Race 8: 1m70yds. S.OC 35000n2x

#2 D T Goodie (8/1) – This gelding is very consistent and will be a bigger price than the favorites even though he has as good a chance as any.

Race 9: 1 Mile. F.Alw 12500

#7 I’m Not Joking (6/1) – Trending in the right direction at Parx, this girl is very serious.

R. 10: 6 F. MC 10000

#8 Dramatized (10/1) – 2nd at this level last start, he’s lightly raced and can take another step forward today.

Moon Shot Monday: The Conductor’s Punts at Parx

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Horses and jockeys at the starting gate during a race at Parx Racing, showcasing the excitement of horse racing.

Not a great weekend for the Conductor at the windows. He had a few good opinions but couldn’t string anything together.  The full 5-day work week lying ahead may kill him, but next week is the 4th of July so there is light at the end of the tunnel.  The best medicine is stew and Parx on a Monday, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 4 ½ F. F.Mdn 45k

#1 Colby (5/2) – Servis/Pennington and she’s posting bullet works. Simple start.

Race 2: 7 Furlongs. Clm 25000

#3 Sidereal (7/2) – He’s the most consistent of the bunch, the Conductor has faith in him.

Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs. S.Mdn 47k

#7 Chubble Gum (5/1) – This colt’s sire is producing winners at a nice clip as of late.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Clm 7500n3L

#5 Self Start (10/1) – He’s coming in off a layoff, but his work tab looks good for a high% barn. He will be facing the weakest competition of his career today.

Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.MC 10000

#5 Maid of Iron (4/1) – She has an early pace advantage over this group and that Is extra dangerous against low level claimers.

Race 6: 1 Mile. Clm 7500n4L

#6 Sparty (6/1) – Dropping in class and stretching back out to a route, he’ll be in a good position early and has the best figures in the field at this distance.

Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs. Mdn 45k

*Never a Doubt Work Week Starter Lock of the Day #8 Glory Song (7/2) – The Conductor will ignore his dull effort last start. That was on the Preakness undercard and the track was inside speed biased.  His prior two efforts would make him an easy winner today.

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Race 8: 7 Furlongs. F.Alw 46000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Don’t Fight It (15/1) – The Conductor liked her maiden breaker last start and Tampa shippers have run well at big odds for him this year. The Conductor will key him in the trifecta.

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Race 9: 1 Mile. Clm 10000

#3 Noble Kent (7/2) – This old man still likes to race at Parx and fight you til the bitter end.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 7500n3L

#8 Glorious Mystery (9/2) – The drop in class was the difference for her last time. A repeat effort today and she’ll be tough to beat.

The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park and Churchill Downs

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A group of horses and jockeys competing in a horse race on a dirt track.

The Conductor sucked yesterday at Churchill, not what we wanted heading into the weekend. However, we have nice weather today and a chance to make some scores. The Conductor will focus his attention on the late pick 4’s in Louisville and Belmont. Let’s Ride.

 

Belmont Park Late Pick 4

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 50000s

This is a spread race for the Conductor, but he’s going to TOSS the morning line favorite #10 Xanthique (5/2) drawn to the far outside.

He’ll use #1 Tizaprincessa (8/1), #4 Sun Summers (7/2), #6 Cockstrikestwelve (6/1), #7 Zandora (8/1), and #9 the Nine O (4/1).

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. S.Alw 66000n1x

#7 The Big Lebanese (5/1) – Cutting back to a sprint, he looks to get a perfect trip today with plenty of speed to run at.  He hasn’t gotten the setup in his prior sprints.

The Conductor will also use #5 Elios Milos (2/1) and #9 Smokin Platinum (3/1).

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.100K Wild Applause Stakes

#4 Nova Sol (5/2) – 2nd off the layoff, she ran very well last start in the Hilltop after a troubled trip. Chad Brown will in this race.

The Conductor will also use #6 Blowout (2/1)

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) S.MC 40000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Hudson Overpass (12/1) – He split the field vs tougher in his debut and ran sneaky well last time at this level. He dueled, setting a hot pace early and was only beaten 3 ½ lengths even though he finished 10th.

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The Conductor will also use #3 Blue Parrot (10/1), #6 Champagne Chiils (4/1) and #7 Jack the Cat (6/1).

Churchill Downs Late Pick 4

Race 8: 1 Mile. F.OC 80000b

#7 In the Mood (6/1) – She ran a very good 2nd at Churchill last time setting a hot at this level. She’s working even better leading in to today.

The Conductor will also use #2 Clever Serve (5/1) and #3 Devine Queen (7/2).

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

#2 Altito (30/1) – He’s an absolute bomb the Conductor will use and key in the trifecta. He’s a proven winner on dirt and ran a solid 4th closing into a slow pace last time. He hasn’t had many chances on turf, but his race at Kentucky downs last fall makes him competitive in here.

The Conductor will also use #4 Cowboy Culture (6/1), #6 Dontblamerocket (4/1) and #8 Keep Quiet (5/2).

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.Roxelana Overnight Stakes

*Never a Doubt Summer Saturday Night Lock of the Day #2 Covfefe (7/5) – The Conductor will toss #10 Mia Mischeif (8/5) and won’t use any backups in this race. This girl put on an absolute show down at Pimlico last start.  She’s the goods.

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Race 11: 6½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 95k

#3 Double Axel (3/1) – She ran a hard charging 2nd after a slow start in her debut. Her recent works suggest she’ll graduate today.

#11 Risky Mandate (5/1) – Is the only backup the Conductor will use.

Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Churchill Downs

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Architectural rendering of a public gathering area with an entrance and crowd of people.

The Conductor sucked yesterday but the card was unplayable with the rain scratches at Belmont. Meanwhile at Churchill they had 14 horse fields running with great opportunities. There off the turf again in NY, so the Conductor will take the train to Kentucky to hunt for gold. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 5 Furlongs. F.Mdn 95k

#7 Mylastfirstkiss (4/1) – She is well bred and the Conductor loves her work tab. This is a very competitive field.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. Clm 25000

#4 Fascilitator (5/1) – He’s lightly raced and the Conductor likes his upside in an evenly matched group.

Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 95k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Shippingport (12/1) – Lanerie taking the mount for such a small barn screams to the Conductor that this boy is live. He’s been working bullets as well.

Churchill

Race 4: 6½ Furlongs. F.MC 10000

#1 Ladyofdragonstone (9/2) – She’s steadily progressing and fits at this level. She ran a good 2nd last time setting a hot pace going longer. The Conductor loves the cutback.

Race 5: 1 Mile. Clm 25000

*Never a Doubt Friday Night Bottle Service Lock of the Day #2 Raising the Flag (3/1) – A repeat effort of her last start throttles this field. 3/1 would be insanely generous.

Churchill

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 50000

#1 Musical American (5/1) – He likes to run 2nd, so the Conductor will mostly key him in the exacta. In his last turf race he dueled setting a hot pace and was only beaten two lengths.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 30000n2L

#8 General Kitten (8/1) – A 1st time gelding off a long layoff, the Conductor will take a swing in weak race. His performances on dirt give him every chance if he’s ready to run.

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. OC 75000n1x

#9 Lemniscate (8/1) – He set the pace before fading badly in the Louisiana Derby.  He’s been working well since at Churchill and the Louisiana Derby is the definition of a key race.  It has produced several next out stakes winners.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 40000b

#2 Valycove (4/1) – He’s run the best turf races in the field against the toughest competition.

Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

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Horses racing at Belmont Park with a crowd cheering and an ambulance in the foreground.

Decent day at Belmont yesterday, a few short-priced winners including the lock of the day and a couple of decent prices running 2nd.  Looks like off the turf and smaller fields again which is annoying, but we play the hand we’re dealt. Let’s ride.

Race 1: 1 Mile. S.Clm 25000

#1 Blame the Theif (5/1) – Whenever he drops in for a tag, he wins. He also looks to get a favorable trip up close to a slow pace.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 12500

#4 Willdcat Belle (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff and dropping in class, her early pace figs give her an advantage over this field. She can clear to front and dictate the race.

Race 3: 1 Mile. 80k

#1 Sagaponack (7/2) – This colt went for a cool 1 Milly at the Keeneland sale and is working like he’s the goods.

Race 4: 1 Mile. F.S.Alw 66000n1x

#6 My Last Million (7/2) – 2nd off the layoff, this filly is stretching out to her best distance and Rosario hops aboard.

Race 5: 5 Furlongs. (OFF Turf) F.Mdn 80k

#6 Morality Cause (9/2) – The Conductor liked her debut, closing for a good 3rd after trouble at the start. The low % jockey will keep her price high, but the horse comes first in capping.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. F.S.Mdn 62k

#2 Tossup (5/1) – She needed her last race off a long layoff and has posted 3 nice works since. Her race two back at Saratoga she showed real ability.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (OFF Turf) F.Clm 35000n3x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Cartwheel (8/1) – The lone MTO in the field and dropping in class, the Conductor hopes she’s sent right to the front in a race devoid of pace.

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Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. S.OC 40000n2x

#2 Real Dan (9/2) – 2nd off the layoff at Belmont and stretching out to a route for the first time for Pletcher, there is no way they’ll allow the Conductor to get that price, but a man can dream.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (OFF Turf) F.S.Mdn 62k

*Never a Doubt Thursday Night Stews Lock of the Day #13 Amos (2/1) – MTO

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Wind Pipe Whack Wednesday at Belmont Park

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Horses and jockeys at the starting gate of Belmont Park during a race.

Back to back great days at Parx for the Conductor. Winners galore yesterday including a 12/1 #gullet shot in the opening race. Now the train back up to Belmont for the rest of the week. Let’s keep up the momentum and get this baby into 6th gear. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.Clm 25000n2L

#4 Bid You Adieu (5/1) – She’s working well for connections that can win off the layoff and any filly who breaks her maiden at Toga has ability.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. (OFF Turf) F.S.Mdn 62k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Lookbothways (8/1) – She had a troubled start last time but has two 2nds at this level on dirt. The other runners in this group have unproven dirt form.

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Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 14000n3L

 #1 Midnightisalright (4/1) – She’ll go right to the front from the rail and should be alone on the lead.

Race 4: 1 Mile. MC 25000

#7 Ari’s Naughty Luca (4/5) – 2nd off the layoff and dropping in class, he’ll handle this group with ease.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. (OFF Turf) MC 40000

#5 Monmouth Dr (5/1) – He’s debuting as the lone MTO in this race and the Conductor likes work tab.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. Alw 40000s

*Never a Doubt Humpday Lock #3 Bon Raison (2/1) – Throw out his last start on a sloppy track, he’s the class of the field and should get a perfect stalking trip just off the speed.

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Race 7: 1 3/8 Mile. (OFF Turf) F.Mdn 90k

#9 Mercy Mercy (5/1) – Shipping in from California, the Conductor likes this girl getting back to dirt.

Race 8: 1 1/16. OC 62500n2x

#2 Dynamix Prime (6/1) – This gelding is in good form, loves to win races and loves Belmont Park.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. (OFF Turf) Clm 30000n2L

#2 Letzgometz (6/1) – He was pulled up in his last start but is working well leading into today. He showed talent in his maiden breaker two starts back and has the most upside in the field.

Trachea Kick Tuesday: The Conductor’s Punts at Parx

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Parx Racing starting gate signage with colorful numbers and logo, indicating horse racing event details.

Finally, a big Monday at Parx to start the week. Multiple winners at nice prices culminating in a 32/1 bomb in the finale. Will the Conductor take credit for that pick in a race where he said he didn’t have a clue? Absolutely. Let’s keep the train moving, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Clm 20000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Bourbon Honey (12/1) – This race will come off the turf with the rain coming. This girl is in good form and does her best running on an off track.

parx

Race 2: 1 1/16. Clm 7500n2L

#6 Treasury Stock (9/5) – To say this group stinks would be an understatement. He has to beat this field.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. Clm 20000

#1 To The Flag (9/5) – This old lady still has gas left in the tank.

Race 4: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) MC 30000

#1 Flat Out Flashy (12/1) – She’ll be a big price and has the best race on a sloppy track in the field.

Race 5: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 30000n2L

#1 Mutaraabit (5/2) – His dirt form towers over this group.

Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs. Clm 5000

#1 Butch Cassidy (30/1) – He’s trending in the right direction and at that price the Conductor will key him in the exacta and trifecta.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. Alw 25000s

*Never a Doubt Taco Tuesday Lock of the Day #1 Ark in the Dark (3/2) – The Conductor sees him as a cinch.

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Race 8: 6 Furlongs. Alw 46000n1x

#2 Pnutbutter Special (15/1) – Lightly raced, he’s been facing tougher competition and has the potential to take a big leap forward today.

Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs. MC 20000

#3 Page Down (3/1) – He’s working well at Parx for top connections and his dam has produced 3 winners from 6 starters.

Moon Shot Monday: The Conductor’s Plays at Parx

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Horses and jockeys at the starting gate during a race at Parx Racing, showcasing the excitement of horse racing.

The Conductor is back to playing Parx on Mondays and Tuesdays…Can’t be worse than last week. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 Mile. F.Clm 7500n2L

#1 Dereya (9/2) – She’s steadily progressing and ran a good 2nd closing into a slow pace at this level last time. This jockey/trainer combo have been hot recently.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. Mile. Clm 16000n2L

#2 No Hitter (5/1) – 2 walks, 1 error, 12k’s, 27 outs.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.S. Mdn 40k

#4 Secretive (6/1) – She didn’t break well in her debut and still ran an ok 3rd. The Conductor sees her taking a big step forward today for strong connections.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Clm 5000n2y

*Never a Doubt Workweek Starter Lock of the Day #8 No Hiding Place (5/2) – This old man is very consistent and has been running the best figures in the field vs tougher competition.

parx

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. Clm 12500n4L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Sparty (15/1) – He returned to form last start, pressing a hot pace and holding onto 3rd going a mile. He has past performances to beat this group and will appreciate the cutback in distance.

parx

Race 6: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Clm 30000n2L

#2 Diamond N Simon (20/1) – Plunging in class, the Conductor will play her if this race stays on the turf. Her lone turf race at Belmont makes her competitive in a field without any turf form.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. F.OC 50000n1x

#3 Malacchio (9/2) – Dropping out of stakes company 2nd off the layoff, she is working well and should get a perfect stalking trip behind a quick pace.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. Alw 46000n1x

#8 Printer (8/1) – He’s a hard knocker who loves to win and loves the Parx surface. This jockey/trainer combo is 4 for their last 10 with a +$5.06 ROI as well.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 25000s

#6 Tanda’s Joy (7/2) – She’s the only proven turf router in the field.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 12500n2L

#6 Victoria E (20/1) – The Conductor doesn’t have a clue in this race.

The Conductor’s Fathers Day Plays at Churchill Downs

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Entrance of Churchill Downs featuring the Kentucky Derby Museum in Louisville, Kentucky.

Choo Chooooooo!!!!!! Talk about handing out the Pick 5 on a platter.  Thank you Mr. Conductor! I will buy lots of shirts to show my gratitude, and a hat too! Let’s do it again at Churchill, Let’s Ride.

Esophagus Slice Saturday: The Conductor’s Stephen Foster Late Pick 5 Plays at Churchill Downs

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. F.MC 30000

#7 Blunt Force (10/1) – Dropping in class 2nd off the layoff and switching back to dirt, shes the price the Conductor likes most.

This is a spread race however, he’ll also use #2 A. P. Princess (4/1), #3 Singsong Bird (8/1), #4 Traci’s Greeley (15/1), #5 Spackle (3/1) and #8 Fire on High (10/1).

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. Clm 16000n2L

#1 Cosmic Hallelujah (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he pressed a hot pace and folded going last time.  The Conductor loves him on the cutback.

He’ll also use #2 British Humor (3/1), #8 Salt Air (4/1), #9 Homeview (8/1), #10 Jimmy Joe (4/1).

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Alw 97000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Bundibunan (12/1) – She ran a good 3rd last start and is steadily progressing.  Her last work shows she’s ready to fire.

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The Conductor will also use #8 Face of Victory (6/1) and #11 Broth (5/1).

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. F.Clm 50000n2L

*Never a Doubt Fathers Day Lock #1/1A Entry (3/1) – Dropping to the claiming ranks for the first time, the race goes thru the Asmussen runners. One of these girls will fire.

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Race 10: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 95k

Spread to end it. #1 Dreams are Made (9/2), #4 Drop Dead Gorgeous (12/1), #7 Yes It’s Ginger (4/1), #8 Nikki Beach (6/1), #12 Holiday Time (7/2)

 

Stephen Foster Late Pick 5 Plays at Churchill Downs

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Horses racing at the Kentucky Derby with spectators in the grandstands at Churchill Downs.

Stephen Foster night at Churchill is sneaky one of the Conductor’s favorite cards of the year. Always quality racing and he’s a sucker for the ponies under the lights. Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mille. G3 Matt Winn Stakes

*Never a Doubt Saturday Twilight Racing Lock of the Day #2 Mr Money (2/1) – The Conductor loved him in the Pat Day Mile last time and he romped. Hog Creek Hustle came back to win last weekend who he beat by 5 lengths as well.  The Conductor will single to start the sequence.

Churchill

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) G2 Wise Dan

#4 Hot Springs (10/1) – 3rd off the layoff, he looks pointed perfectly for this spot and is 4/5 at Churchill.

#6 Siem Rep Riep (8/1) He’s the only one that wants the lead in here. His wire job last time was no fluke, he set a hot pace and finished well.

#9 Inspector Lynley (6/1) – He’s been facing classier runners than this group, the Conductor can’t leave him off his tickets.

#10 El Picaro (12/1) – He’s dominated in Chile and is shipping to America for the first time. He’s working well and if Castellano is taking the mount, he’s live.

 #11 March to the Arch (6/1) – 3rd off the layoff, he’s dropping out of G1 company.

#12 Admission Office (5/1) – The one to beat, he ran huge in the G2 Dixie last time out. The #12 post is the only concern.

Race 7: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G2 Fleur de Luis H.

#3 Elate (8/5) – The Conductor will use #2 She’s a Julie (2/1) as a backup but will heavily press Elate. This mare is a class above.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. G2 Stephen Foster Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Seeking the Soul (4/1) – If the Conductor gets 4/1 on this horse he’ll back the caboose up right to the windows.  He’ll use #6 Gift Box (3/1) and #7 Tenfold (12/1) as backups.

Churchill

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Regret Stakes

Let’s get this home with these girls: #4 Varenka (4/1), #5 Hard Legacy (8/1), #7 Bella Laura (8/1), #11 Princess Carolina (4/1)