Tag: handicapping

Trachea Kick Tuesday: The Conductor’s Punts at Parx

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Parx Racing starting gate signage with colorful numbers and logo, indicating horse racing event details.

Decent day at Parx yesterday. Not a lot of big prices, but the winners were coming home. Let’s keep the train rolling. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 Mile. F.Clm 7500n2L

#3 Linda Listen (7/5) – This filly needs to bounce back, but she’s still lightly raced and has run by far the best figures in the field. The Conductor wants to play against her but doesn’t like the other contenders.

Race 2: 5 Furlongs. F.MC 10000

#9 Pablo’s Dream (6/1) – Shipping in from California after a long layoff she’s facing much weaker today, she doesn’t have to do much to beat this field.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.S.Mdn 40k

#6 J J Loves Billy (5/1) – This filly ran well in her debut and with a natural step forward she’ll have every chance.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Clm 5000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Surfing USA (8/1) – This old man is dropping in class and the conditions look to hit him right between the eyes.

parx

Race 5: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 20000

#9 Baseline (9/2) – This group is tightly bunched on numbers and he’s exiting much tougher races. Class on the grass.

Race 6: 1m70yds. S.Clm 25000

#1 Devine Dental (2/1) – He looks to be cycling back to his top effort and that will make him tough to beat.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 50000n1x

*Never a Doubt Toga Bankroll Lock of the Day #7 Two Item Maker (5/2) – Making her 3rd career start, another step forward today and she’ll win for fun.

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Race 8: 1m70yds. Alw 12500

#2 His Royal Majesty (3/1) – 3rd off the layoff at Parx, he’s getting better with each race.

Race 9: 1 Mile. F.OC 35000n2x

#4 I’m Not Joking (6/1) – He’s very consistent and loves to win. The Conductor will make the favorites prove it to him.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. Clm 25000n3L

#1 Transitive (5/2) – He’s trending in the right direction and is lightly raced compared to many in this group who don’t like to win.

Moon Shot Monday: The Conductor’s Punts at Parx

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Horses and jockeys at the starting gate during a race at Parx Racing, showcasing the excitement of horse racing.

It’s officially opening week at Saratoga. The Conductor is all tingly on the inside. Let’s build our bankroll at Parx, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 Mile. F.Clm 7500n4L

#4 Vested Venture (7/2) – This mare is trending in the right directions while the others are trying to bounce back.

Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs. Clm 7500

#4 Under the Graydar (6/1) – The Conductor will hammer him at that price, he’s been facing much tougher competition recently.

Race 3: 1m70yds. Alw 25000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 O’Kram (10/1) – He stepped up in class last start and improved his speed figure. The Conductor loves to see that.

parx

Race 4: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 20000

#8 Two Weeks Off (6/1) – Dropping back to a level that fits, this old man is very dangerous.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.Alw 41000n1x

*Never a Doubt Week Starter Lock of the Day #6 I’m the Talent (9/5) – This filly is right, she has the most potential in the field.

parx

Race 6: 1 Mile. F.Alw 46000n1x

#7 Style and Grace (7/2) – She’s run well vs tougher and gets a weight break today.

Race 7: 1m70yds. (Turf) S.F.Alw 41000n1x

#8 Promised Storm (4/1) – She hasn’t run well in her last two starts but has the ability to beat the favorite if she runs her good race. She loves to win races.

Race 8: 1 Mile. F.OC 50000n3x

#5 Trace of Grace (9/2) – 4th of the layoff, she’s taken a step forward in each of her starts this year.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. Clm 7500n3L

#9 Phyllis Driller (10/1) – Toss out her last start at Parxs where she was eased. She returns to the races quickly and is working well. Her prior races would make her vie for favoritism here and she’ll be a nice number.

Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

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Horses racing at Belmont Park with jockeys in colorful silks on a dirt track.

Another decent day yesterday at Belmont in this battle to survive another vacation. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 82000n1x

#7 Salsa Bella (7/2) – G3 placed, she’s the one you want if your trying to beat Chad Brown.

Race 2: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.OC 40000n2x

#9 Saratoga Treasure (3/1) – She ran a good 2nd at this level last time and making her 3rd start off the layoff she looks primed for victory.

Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs. Clm 14000n3L

#3 There He Goes (1/1) – Chalk.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) Clm 30000n2L

#10 Gallant Bid (6/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she takes a big class drop today and gets a rider upgrade. She’s lightly raced while most runners in here are proven losers.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. Alw 55000s

*Never a Doubt Not Even the Weekend Yet Lock of the Day #1 Happy Farm (4/5) – He looks like a cinch for Servis.

belmont park

Race 6: 1 1/4 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Mdn 90k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Giulia Ammannati (15/1) – The Conductor doesn’t think she cared for the yielding turf last time and liked her debut effort two back. She pressed a hot pace and moved early before being run down late. The Conductor also likes that Jose Ortiz takes the mount for an out of town trainer.

belmont park

Race 7: 1½ Mile. (Turf) F.River Memories Stakes 100K

#5 Homeland Security (10/1) – This mare gets back to Belmont where she’s 4/6 lifetime and she’s 2/3 at the distance.

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. F.G3 Victory Ride Stakes

#2 Cookie Dough (3/1) – She pressed a hot pace vs G1 company last start, the Conductor loves the cutback.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.S.MC 40000

#3 Report to the Rail (8/1) – The Conductor doesn’t like the runners with experience in here and likes he work tab. Rosario takes the mount as well.

The Conductor’s 4th of July Plays at Belmont Park

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Four racehorses with jockeys in colorful silks in front of an American flag.

A few decent opinions yesterday started the train slowly moving in the right direction. On America’s birthday what better way to fire away at the ponies, drink stews and exploit your friend’s private beach? As George Washington once said, “No taxation without representation and the Conductor never loses on Thursdays at Belmont.” Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 50000n3L

#6 Carot (9/2) -She offers value and the Conductor likes the way Dylan Davis has been riding on the turf.

Race 2: 1 1/6 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 80k

#3 Ownitifyouwantit (5/1) – He’s run well on dirt and bred to be much better on the lawn.

Race 3: 1 Mile. Clm 10000

#3 Big Muddy (5/1) – 1st off the claim and 2nd off the layoff, his good race can beat the odds-on favorite.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) OC 62500n2x

#3 Greek Alphabet (7/2) – He looks to get a favorable trip up close or on a slow pace.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. Mdn 80k

#3 Extreme Force (7/2) – His sire, Constitution, is winning at a ridiculous 57% clip with 1st time starters.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) F.MC 40000

*Never a Doubt Independence Day Lock #3 Ghosting (5/1) – 1st off the claim for Servis, she adds blinkers today an Irad hops aboard.

Belmont Park

Race 7: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) S.Alw 66000n2x

#1 El Hermano (8/1) – Drawn well to the inside, the Conductor will back Mott runners going long on the grass every day.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) 100K Manila S

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Current (8/1) – He’s had no pace to run at in his last two starts and has run some thunderous late pace figures. He’s very dangerous.

Belmont Park

#7 Win Win Win (7/2) – After playing him in the Preakness and Derby, the Conductor has to use him cutting back in distance and making his 1st start on grass.

Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.MC 40000

#2 Peggy Sue (2/1) – She’ll graduate today at Belmont.

Wind Pipe Whack Wednesday at Belmont Park

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Crowd of spectators watching a horse race at a racetrack with horses and jockeys in view.

The Conductor may have to ban himself from Parx after the last two days. Heinous performances, but the train is heading back to his bread and butter, Belmont Park, today. Let’s hit some prices so we don’t have to eat sand for dinner on America’s birthday. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.Clm 14000n3L

*Never a Doubt Five Day Vacation Starter Lock of the Day #1A Taylor’s the Boss (9/5) – She looks like a standout in this group.

belmont park

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. F.Alw 40000s

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Chorus Line (20/1) – The Conductor sees this race as wide open and this filly has past pps that give her a chance. She’s shown signs of rounding into form in her last two starts and Rosario hops aboard which gives the Conductor confidence.  He’ll key her in the exacta.

belmont park

Race 3: 1 ¼ Mile. (Turf) Mdn 90k

#4 Channel Island (6/1) – Well-bred and 1st time in the barn for Mike Maker, his horses improve going long on the lawn.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Clm 32000

#8 Awesome Quick (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff, this mare has an early pace advantage in this spot. The Conductor sees her getting the lone lead which is always dangerous.

Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 80k

#8 Paterson (9/2) – This daughter of Uncle Mo is drawn well to the outside and posting nice works for strong connections.

Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs. Alw 50000

#4 Smile Bryan (4/1) – The Churchill shippers have run well in dirt races coming to Belmont.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) OC 100000b

#3 Noble Indy (7/2) – 2nd off the layoff, he ran a good 3rd at this level in his turf debut last time. He looks to get a favorable trip today in a race without any other early speed.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. Clm 16000n2L

#5 Heyitsnricopalazo (8/1) – He’s coming in off a layoff but is a 1st time gelding and has run well vs tougher.  The Conductor likes his work tab and will key him in the exacta at a price.

Moon Shot Monday: The Conductor’s Punts at Parx

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Horses and jockeys at the starting gate during a race at Parx Racing, showcasing the excitement of horse racing.

That sucked. Off to Parx we go to start the week of the 4th. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs. Clm 5000

#8 No More Strippers (10/1) – This old man is still trying and is consistent. He’s dropping in class and his figures give him every chance at this level. The Conductor will pay for one last dance.

Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.Clm 16000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Autobahn Express (15/1) – She had a troubled trip last time and is facing weaker today. She has past performances that can beat this field.

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Race 3: 1 ½ Miles (Turf) Alw 25000

#3 Show Court (4/1) – Hurdles huh? The Conductor will go with this Irish invader.

Race 4: 1m70ys. MC 10000

#6 Daybreaker (7/2) – Lightly raced, he took a step forward last time and with natural progression again today he’ll be tough to beat.

Race 5: 1 ½ Miles (Turf) Alw 25000

#12 No Wunder (8/1) – When they’re running long on the grass and jumping over things, the Conductor rolls with the Euro’s.

Race 6: 1m70yds. Clm 7500

#3 Rings of Jupiter (5/2) – He found is form last start and gets a weight break today.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. Clm 12500

#8 Yellow Wolf (6/1) – This group is tightly bunched, and the Conductor likes his chances taking a significant class drop.

Race 8: 1m70yds (Turf) F.Alw 25000

*Never a Doubt Two Day Work Week Starter Lock of the Day #4 Miss Jen (3/1) – The Conductor see this filly as a clear standout.

parx

 

Race 9: 1 Mile. OC 50000

#3 Nanoosh (2/1) – This colt hasn’t seen this soft of competition for top connections.

Race 10: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.Clm 5000

#7 Annesa (20/1) – She took a step forward at Parx last time and has recent races that would give her a chance at a big number.

Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers at Belmont Park

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Horses racing at Belmont Park with a crowd cheering and an ambulance in the foreground.

Woof. The Conductor is tucking his between his legs and taking the train back to Belmont. Churchill kicked him in the teeth yesterday, luckily the casino was a little kinder to the Conductor. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Clm 25000

#1/1A Entry – The Conductor likes both fillies and he get two for the price of 1.

Race 2: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.Mdn 62k

*Double Barreled Gullet Shots of the Day #4 Running on Entry (5/1) – She ran very well in her debut closing into a moderate pace for 2nd. A natural step forward makes her dangerous.

Belmont

#5 A Little Faith (12/1) – When Castellano shows up for low % barns on debut take notice.

Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs. Clm 16000

#1 Professor Snape (5/2) – He’s been facing weaker but is consistently running figures that can beat this group.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Turf) F,Mdn 80k

#6 Livin at the Beach (6/1) – The Conductor like her breeding and she is working well for strong connections.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. MC 25000

#7 Fortune Smiles (5/1) – Plunging in class, he’s run ok against much tougher.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 40000s

#5 Cardiac Kitten (6/1) – Bred to be better on grass, she won very impressively last start at Keeneland. The Conductor will empty the caboose at that price.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. S.100K Saginaw Stakes

#4 Dynamax Prime (5/1) – He looks to get a perfect trip sitting just behind dueling front runners.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Clm 50000n2L

*Never a Doubt Lock From God #5 Course Correction (6/5) – Chad Brown at Belmont.

Belmont

Pick 6 Mandatory Payout Play at Churchill Downs

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Two racehorses competing on a dirt track at Churchill Downs with spectators in the background.

The Conductor was heinous at Churchill yesterday, but it was a classic bait and switch. He got all his losers out of the way and saved his winners for the mandatory pick 6 payout today.  What a smart Conductor, Let’s Ride.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 97000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #10 Salvator Mundi (10/1) – This is a very tough race to start the sequence and the Conductor will be spreading. This colt is the price horse he likes most. 2nd off the layoff and getting back to the turf, he just missed being a Grade 3 winner by a head last year. That’s by far the best effort in this group to date.

Churchill Downs

The Conductor will also use: 1,2,4,8,11,12

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. 120K Kelly’s Landing Stakes

#7 Petrov (6/1) – The Conductor will include a price with the favorite.  This horse ran a good 2nd vs similar last start and has gotten better with each start this year. His win at Saratoga last summer gives him a chance.

The Conductor will also use: 1

Race 9: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 104000n1x

The Conductor is going to play against the heavy favorite #12 Om (2/1) in this spot. Drawn to the outside, his weapon is speed going longer, cutbacks don’t work on the turf like they do in dirt.

The Conductor will use: 1,2,5,7,8,9,10

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.125K Debutante Stakes

*Never a Doubt Pick 6 Single Lock #7 Magic Dance (8/5) – You couldn’t ask for much more in her debut.  She would have to take a step backwards to be beat today. The Conductor will take a stand.

Churchill Downs

Race 11: 6 Furlongs. G3 Bashford Manor Stakes

#2 Snell Yea (8/1) – The Conductor liked how hard he tried last start at Churchill and he doesn’t have to improve too much to have a chance.

The Conductor will also use: 1,10

Race 12: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 95k

#12 On d’Oro (12/1) – Going two sprints to a route and trying turf for the first time, he can take a big step forward.

The Conductor will also use: 2,5,9

Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Churchill Downs

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Large crowd of spectators at the Kentucky Derby event at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

Nice little 30/1 double for the Conductor yesterday.  He’s going to keep playing Churchill until Saratoga, Belmont is unplayable right now. Thank god it’s the weekend, Let’s Ride.

 

Race 1: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.MC 40000

#7 Windy City Kitty (6/1) – This filly’s sire is winning at a whopping 42% clip with 1st time starters. The Conductor also likes her work tab.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 50000n2L

#4 Grit to Glory (3/1) – Lightly raced and dropping back to the claiming ranks, he has the most upside.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. F.MC 20000

#1 Princess Kiah (10/1) – 1st time blinkers, her race two starts back gives her every chance. The rail has good in routes.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 95k

#12 Crossing the Moon (8/1) – This colt is well-bred, and the Conductor loves to see a bullet work two back followed by a slow one leading into the debut. He’s ready to run.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 97000n1x

#7 Domonette (6/1) – Stretching out to a route, she will get a favorable trip all alone on the lead.  This race has absolutely no pace.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. OClm 10000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Greeleys Charm (8/1) – This old man is very consistent and ran a strong 2nd last time at this level closing into a slow pace. The M/L price would be an absolute treat.

churchill downs

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. Clm 20000

#1 Sharp Witted (5/1) – 3rd off the layoff and shortening back to a sprint, trainer Tom Amoss is winning at a 40% clip dropping horses more than 2 class levels this year.

Race 8: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

#7 Mister Maestro (7/2) – 2nd off the layoff, the Conductor sees him cycling up to his best self.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. Clm 40000

#1 Commandeering (10/1) – He set a hot pace for this level last start and is cutting back to a sprint. His race 3 back gives him every chance and the Conductor will key him in the exacta and trifecta.

Race 10: 1 Mile. OC 75000n1x

*Never a Doubt Friday Night Bottle Service Lock of the Day #1A High Crime (5/2) – If this colt draws into this Churchill field, he’s your winner.

churchill downs

Race 11: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 95k

#2 Wildlife (12/1) – This well-bred daughter of Animal Kingdom caught a sloppy track in her debut. The Conductor will take a swing trying what she wants today.

Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Plays at Churchill Downs

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Exciting horse race with multiple horses and jockeys competing at a famous racetrack with grandstands filled with spectators.

We were out early and often in the pick 6 yesterday in Belmont. Not great, but Churchill has a hell of a card today for a Thursday. There is always another race in 20 minutes, that’s why the Conductor loves this game. Full fields and juicy prices in Louisville, the train will roll right in and fire away. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 95k

#8 Weekend Fun (7/2) – Drawn well to the outside, the Conductor loves this girl’s work tab for top connections. She showed her hand in tat bullet work at Keeneland May 25th.

Race 2: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) OC 100000b

*Never a Doubt Thursday Night Stew Lock of the Day #2 Mr. Misunderstood (4/5) – The Conductor wanted to play against him off the layoff, but he looks too classy against this group.

Race 3: 1 Mile. F.OClm 10000

#8 Big Blue Magic (7/2) – Stepping up in class, she’s in great form and looks to get a favorable trip up close to a slow pace.

Churchill Downs

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. MC 40000

#1 Replete (12/1) – Cutting back to a sprint after setting a scorching pace for this level last time, the Conductor will key her in the exacta and trifecta.

Race 5: 1 Mile. F.OC 75000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Kim K (6/1) – 2nd off the layoff, this girl stretches out to a mile and has shown she has talent, breaking her maiden in a stakes race. Anything above 4/1 will get the Conductor tingly inside.

Churchill Downs

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 97000n1x

#3 Kaziranga (12/1) – The Conductor liked the way this colt split horses and finished in his win last start. He’s steadily progressing, and he didn’t have a favorable setup last time, it was a moderate pace he closed into.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. OC 62500n2x

#10 Tiznoble (8/1) – 3rd off the layoff and working well at Churchill, he’s stepping up in class, but his figures fit and he is ultra-consistent.  He looks to get a perfect stalking trip just behind the front-runners.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. MC 20000

#1 Grand Roayale (12/1) – Maiden claimers going this far? Who the hell knows. This 1st time gelding has upside stretching out to a route for the 1st time.