Good bounce back Saturday for the Conductor. Let’s finish the weekend strong.
Let’s whack’em right between the eyes. Skip.
| Race | A | B | C |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| 2 | 2, 5, 7, 9 | 1, 6 | |
| 3 | 3, 7, 10 | 1, 4, 5, 6 | |
| 4 | 1, 2 | 4, 6, 9 | |
| 5 | 7 | 1 | 2, 9, 11 |
| 6 | 1 | 3, 9, 10 | |
| 7 | 2 | 6 | 1, 4, 8, 9 |
| 8 | 6, 8 | 4, 10 | 7, 13 |
| 9 | 3, 6 | 1, 2, 8, 11 |
The Conductor sucked yesterday. Let’s be honest about it. The 15/1 horse in the turf sprint that got steamed down to 6/1 after the gates opened, and then won on the lead for fun — when he’s never been on the lead in his life — really soured the Conductor on Keeneland.
It’s tough to love this game when the CAWS are in bed with the tracks and the greedy bastards don’t give a shit about the horseplayer. That’s not a game. That’s a tax collection dressed up in silks.
But the Conductor doesn’t quit. The passengers don’t quit. We show up. We cap harder. We try again. Skip.
Be wary of the rain today — there might be some late scratches. The forecast doesn’t look bad enough to take the races off the turf, but watch the board before post time. Scratches reshape this card. Adapt accordingly.
| Race | Contenders |
|---|---|
| Race 1 | 1 / 2, 4 |
| Race 2 | 3, 4 / 2, 8, 9 |
| Race 3 | 3, 7 / 1, 8, 9, 10, 12 |
| Race 4 | 2 / 7 |
| Race 5 | 9, 10, 11 / 1, 7, 8 |
| Race 6 | 3 / 4, 8 / 7, 9, 10 |
| Race 7 | 1 / 3, 4, 7 |
| Race 8 | 3, 6 / 1, 11 |
| Race 9 | 1, 5, 8 / 4, 6 |
| Race 10 | 2, 4 / 1, 3, 5 |
| Race 11 | 12 / 3, 5, 7, 10 |
Watch the scratches. Don’t chase the steam. And remember — the Conductor doesn’t owe the CAWS a damn thing. We ride at our own pace.
New passenger? Subscribe to The Conductor’s Scroll — free to board, First Class for the full weekend card. And if you want to understand what the Conductor is actually doing before he writes these, start with the beginner’s guide to handicapping a horse race.
Nothing like holiday racing. Avoiding your “normal” family with a glass of stew in the basement and firing away on ponies and football/basketball with your degenerate cousins and uncles. Beautiful day at Aqueduct indeed, Let’s Ride.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Bobbyfromthepalm (8/1) – He took money at the windows in his debut vs tougher at Saratoga. 1st off the claim for George Weaver, he’s working well and stretches out to a route for the first time.
#4 Princess Victoria (3/1) – This mare pressed a hot pace vs tougher last time. Third off the layoff today and dropping in class, the Conductor loves her.
#5 Riot Worthy (15/1) – She’s unlikely to win, but there will be a highly contested lead in this race. She will get a favorable trip and the Conductor will key her in 2nd and 3rd at a big number.
#7 Hudson Overpass (7/2) – He has a strong early pace edge over this group.
#4 Science Fiction (6/1) – Dropping to the claiming ranks and getting a rider upgrade to Alvarado, she loves the Aqueduct dirt.
#2 Implied Volatility (4/1) – Stepping up in class, he’s run well in his first two starts under different circumstances. He has the most upside in the field.
#7 Turned Aside (7/2) – This colt pressed a scorching pace vs stakes company last time. With a good draw today, he’ll be tough to beat.
#5 Foolish Living (5/2) – After scratches, she looks like an easy winner.
#10 Lawn Boy (10/1) – The Conductor will take a swing with the Castellano brothers teaming up.
14% takeout for pick 4’s and and also full fields at Kentucky Downs makes it impossible for the Conductor to sit on his hands tomorrow. He’d be leaving money on the table! He likes tomorrow’s late pick 4 especially. Let’s Ride.
#2 Cairo Express (12/1) – She showed good early speed in her debut on dirt at Saratoga and is also bred to step forward on the turf. Additionally, trainer Joe Sharp is 19% with a +$0.83 ROI moving runners to turf for the 1st time this year.
#8 Meritaten (6/1) – This filly was well bet in her debut and ran evenly, chasing 3-wide. The Conductor also likes her works exiting that race and sees her taking a big step forward with experience.
#9 Fashion Act (20/1) – Similar angle to the #2. She certainly showed speed on dirt and well bet in her debut and now switching to turf, where she’s bred to prefer.
#11 Lucky Polly (6/1) – She’s absolutely bred for the turf for top connections and working well.
#12 Fashionably (5/1) – Same as #11
#1 Cammack (10/1) – This old man was loaded behind traffic and also a slow pace last start. He’s a hard knocker and beat similar two back.
#5 Aquaphobia (7/2) – He’s exiting much tougher races at Saratoga.
#7 Untaimed Domain (12/1) – He clipped heels last time, but his prior form gives him every chance vs this group. The Conductor certainly likes that he returns to the races quickly.
#9 Penalty (5/1) – He beat tougher two starts back at Saratoga at this distance.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Mr. Misunderstood (4/1) – 3rd off the layoff, 4/4 at the distance and a G2 stakes winner, he’s the Conductor’s key to the Kentucky Downs sequence.
#6 Get Western (15/1) – The Conductor will also play a lone backup ticket with this longshot. He is exiting a wire to wire victory and there is not a lot of pace signed on in this one.
This marathon maiden race is wide open. The Conductor will use #1 Meu Amor (12/1), #2 Summer in Saratoga (6/1), #6 Temple City Terra (4/1) , #8 Cambeliza (15/1), and #10 Coliean Bawn (5/2).
The Conductor got off to a great start at Saratoga before mother nature ended his fun like the cruel witch she can be. Races 6 and 8 are on the turf today while 2,3 and 10 are off. Let’s pick up where we left off, Let’s Ride.
#5 G. T. Sonia (10/1) – The heavy favorite #3 Countenance (3/5) is the one to beat, but this is the price the Conductor likes most. She’s run the fastest figures of the rest of the group and gets red-hot Alvarado in the irons.
#8 Assault Breaker (5/2) – He looks like the clear one to beat on the dirt after scratches.
#7 Bernin’ Thru Gold (5/2) – He pressed a hot pace last start and still held on for 3rd. The Conductor sees him taking a step forward.
#2 Viva Forever (6/1) – This mare ran a clunker last time, but if you toss that race out, she looks to have as good a chance as any in here.
#8 Ivy’s College Fund (8/1) – 3rd off the layoff, she’s trending in the right direction and the Conductor sees her taking another step forward today. The Conductor’s kids better get scholarships.
#7 Ocean Fire (4/1) – Making her 2nd carreer start, she ran a good 3rd in her debut. Mott runners always improve with a race under their belt.
#6 Slimey (6/1) – Stepping up in class after a good win at Saratoga only 9 days ago. The Conductor loves her steady progression.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Colonel Tom (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he drops back into state-bred company and has the fastest early pace figures in the field. He’ll be a big price at Saratoga because jockey Dylan Davis has yet to find the winners circle this meet.
*Never a Doubt Friday Night Bottle Service Lock of the Day #1 Intrepid Heart (7/2) – He was too far back behind a slow pace in the Belmont and was the wise guy horse that day. With major class relief here, the Conductor thinks there is still talent under the hood.
#2 Talespin (12/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he showed good early speed and ran a good 3rd behind a next out winner last time.
Talk about action, big work week starts tomorrow. Toga rolls right into Del Mar, what a treat. Let’s Ride.
#4 Surprise Fashion (10/1) – Stretching out to a dirt route for the first time, the Conductor sees him stepping forward. He will key him in the exacta as the likely highest price on the board.
#5 Starting Bloc (4/1) – The Conductor liked his finish last time having to wait behind horses. He is steadily progressing this year.
#1 Oh Man (7/2) – Dropping back to the claiming ranks, he has the best races at this distance in the field.
#5 Giddymeister (5/2) – Winner of 3 of his last 4, he is in good form and keeps getting better.
#6 Kiana’a Love (6/1) – She moves into the Peter Miller barn and he takes the blinkers off, which is a positive ROI move for him this year. This filly showed real talent in her debut win.
#6 Golden Goddess (15/1) – The Conductor doesn’t have a strong opinion in this wide-open baby race. He likes this girl’s multiple 4F works.
*Never a Doubt Backstretch Birds Chirping Lock of the Day #3 Smiling Shirlee (3/1) – The word is out at Del Mar on this filly, just look at her work tab and you’ll see why.
#2 Roger That (30/1) – The Conductor likes #8 Gregorian Hunt (7/2), and if you like him you must like Roger That at 8 times the price. He was only beaten 1 ¼ lengths by Gregorian Hunt in Ireland and he stretches out to a route today for the 1st time. The Conductor will key him in the trifecta.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Jack Van Berg (20/1) – 1st time out for the Michael Puhich barn, he ran a good 3rd against a tough 12-horse field at Churchill last time. In this sprint without much pace, his early/turn pace figures make him very dangerous at a big number. The Conductor will key him in the exacta and trifecta.
#7 Unusually Handsome (8/1) – The Conductor like that Van Dyke takes the mount for the “other” Peter Miller entry in here.
Solid Sunday for the Conductor as his lock and gullet shot of the day found themselves in the winner’s circle. We made a little money back from a poor opening week at Saratoga and now we must keep up the momentum. With Del Mar opening on Wednesday, the Conductor will have his full card top picks for both Saratoga and Del Mar thru the rest of the meets. His generosity knows no bounds. The racing summer is upon us, Let’s Ride.
#3 Mission Wrapitup (7/5) – His debut blowout win was very impressive.
#9 Fully Vested (2/1) – 2nd off the layoff, this gelding ran a very good 2nd last time in his first try on turf. He has serious early pace figures on dirt as well.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Hope Again (9/2) – 3rd off the layoff, he’s steadily progressing and won easily last start. Those are the types of runners the Conductor likes stepping up in class.
#8 Devils Rendezvous (10/1) – This filly is working well, and her sire is winning at a 22% clip with 1st timers. Additionally, the Conductor likes that Rosario hops aboard.
#2 Avacado Toast (6/1) – She’s lightly raced and trending in the right direction. She also gets a small weight break.
#7 Embellisher (5/1) – The two Chad Brown runners (6,9) are the ones to beat, but the Conductor will key this boy in the exacta. In his first start on turf last time, he set a hot pace and held on for a good 3rd. He gets a rider switch to Leparoux, who is very adept at rating speed horses on the front end.
*Never a Doubt Chad Brown Lock of the Day #7 Break Curfew (5/2) – This filly is very quick and also has an early pace advantage over this group. Gate to wire at Saratoga.
#2 Carrera Cat (5/1) – 3rd off the layoff, this is another front-running filly the Conductor likes. Winner of four in a row, she’s has a chance to run them off their feet.
#3 Light in the Sky (9/2) – She’s well-bred for the turf and the jockey/trainer combo of Jose Ortiz/Linda Rice has been very good lately.
120k Pick 6 Carryover today at Saratoga, the Conductor just wants a pick 1 at this point. Let’s Ride.
#4 Pearlescent (6/1) – Mott’s debut runners haven been running very well as of late and he’s at his best sending them out in turf routes.
#8 Elios Milos (9/2) – 2nd off the layoff, he’s lightly raced and has prior form that can beat this group.
#3 Wild William (8/1) – The lone 4-year-old in the group, he has a year of maturity on them and quick early pace figures.
#8 No Salt (3/1) – This colt is working like he’s the goods by all counts.
#8 Positive Skew (6/5) – Chad Brown Chalk.
#1A Lady Love (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she ran very well last time closing into a slow pace. She’ll be right there at the wire with a natural step forward.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 T Loves a Fight (6/1) – Stepping up in class, he’s won two and a row and is running figures that make him competitive a at this level. He should get a perfect stalking trip behind a hot pace.
#9 Stellar Agent (6/1) – Stretching back out to a route, this filly flashed talent as a two-year-old. She looks to get a good trip in this spot, on or near a slow pace.
*Never a Doubt Sunday Lock From God #4 Break Even (2/1) – This filly looks like a clear standout to the Conductor, she can scoot.
#9 Go Get That (15/1) – Making just this third career start, the Conductor liked his improvement last race at Saratoga and sees him taking another step forward today.
The Conductor is in a nice hole to start the meet and that’s just the way he likes it. Back against the wall waking up with the cold sweats in the middle of the night. It tightens the brain and sharpens his capping. The first Saturday of the Saratoga meet, Let’s Ride.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Magical Justice (10/1) – #10 She’s Not Bluffing (5/2) is the one to beat, but this filly is the price horse the conductor likes. She’s steadily progressing, has good early speed, and will be ignored shipping in from Thistledowns.
#2 Prisoner’s Dilemma (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff and dropping to the claiming ranks for the 1st time she’s very logical.
#2 Raging Whiskey (5/2) – How cant the Conductor play him with a name like that?
#1 High Tide (3/1) – Pletcher hasn’t been winning with these two-year old’s, the Conductor will give him one more chance here.
#8 Catch a Thrill (9/2) – She caught a yielding turf course and stretching out vs Grade 2 competition last start. Her two grass sprints make her the one to beat in the Conductor’s opinion.
#2 Decorated Invader (4/1) – This 200k son of Declaration of War is bred to love the lawn for strong connections.
#7 Lutsky (9/2) – 1st time for Navarro, he posses past performances that can beat this field. The barn switch gives him a major chance.
#7 First Wave (4/1) – Drawn well to the outside making her 2nd career start, Rusty Arnold trainees always take big step forwards.
#6 Homerique (5/2) – Which Chad Brown runner is going to win? The Conductor loves her late punch.
*Never a Doubt Saturday Beach Trip Lock of the Day #5 Payne (6/5) – Looks like the Saratoga chalk to the Conductor.
#2 Shalako (10/1) – 3rd off the layoff and dropping in class, he’s pressed hot paces vs tougher in his last two starts. He also shortens 1/16 of a mile.
Not a great start to the Saratoga meet, but the Guillo 1st time starter in race 5 kept us afloat. Off the turf again today except for races 3 and 9. Time to hop back in the saddle, Let’s Ride.
#3 Derby Memories (6/1) – 2nd off the long layoff, he’s lightly raced, drops in class and returns to dirt where he showed speed in his debut. He also posted a nice work leading into today.
#13 Daddy Knows (1/1) – The lone MTO runner for Linda Rice, he looks tough to beat.
#5 Ferdinanda (7/2) – She looks to get a perfect stalking trip sitting behind a hot pace. The Conductor’s only concern is her affinity to run 2nd. He’ll key her in the exacta.
#3 Soul P Say (7/2) – Cutting back to a sprint should hit him right between the eyes.
#4 Lotta Ott (3/1) – Well-bred, she has a very nice work tab at Keeneland. Her sire wins at a 38% clip with 1st time starters.
#2 Heavy Roller (10/1) – This gelding drops in for a tag and has very strong performances on good sloppy dirt tracks.
#9 Filly Dilly (4/1) – Her debut got taken off the turf as well and she slaughtered the field.
*Never a Doubt Friday Night Bottle Service Best Bet of the Day #2 Dreamzapper (3/1) – Dropping out of open company and shipping in from Churchill, he looks primed for a big effort.
#3 Hembree (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he ran a thunderous late pace figure in the Poker, closing into a slow pace. He’s a G2 winner and always runs well at this distance.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Quarbaan (6/1) – He’s the one the Conductor likes most in here. Dropping out of G1 company and shortening back in distance, the Conductor is salivating at that price.
#2 Fight Night (9/2) – Making her 2nd start of the year, she has good early speed and is cutting back in distance.
Race 7: Daily Double 2,3 / 3,8
