Tag: handicapping

Ponies

The Conductor’s Thursday Late Pick 4 Preview at Kentucky Downs

The Conductor's Scribe

14% takeout for pick 4’s and full fields at Kentucky Downs makes it impossible for the Conductor to sit on his hands tomorrow. He’d be leaving money on the table! He likes tomorrow’s late pick 4 especially. Let’s Ride.

Race 7: 6½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 130k

#2 Cairo Express (12/1) – She showed good early speed in her debut on dirt at Saratoga and is bred to step forward on the turf. Trainer Joe Sharp is also 19% with a +$0.83 ROI moving runners to turf for the 1st time this year.

#8 Meritaten (6/1) – This filly was well bet in her debut and ran evenly, chasing 3-wide. The Conductor likes her works exiting that race and sees her taking a big step forward with experience.

#9 Fashion Act (20/1) – Similar angle to the #2. She howed speed on dirt and well bet in her debut and now switching to turf, where she’s bred to prefer.

#11 Lucky Polly (6/1) – Bred well for the turf and top connections and working well.

#12 Fashionably (5/1) – Same as #11

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

#1 Cammack (10/1) – This old man was loaded behind traffic and a slow pace last start. He’s a hard knocker and beat similar two back.

#5 Aquaphobia (7/2) – He’s exiting much tougher races at Saratoga.

#7 Untaimed Domain (12/1) – He clipped heels last time, but his prior form gives him every chance vs this group. The Conductor likes that he returns to the races quickly.

#9 Penalty (5/1) – He beat tougher two starts back at Saratoga at this distance.

1m70yds. (Turf) OldFriendL250K Old Friends Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Mr. Misunderstood (4/1) – 3rd off the layoff, 4/4 at the distance and a G2 stakes winner, he’s the Conductor’s key to the sequence.

randy orton wwe GIF

#6 Get Western (15/1) – The Conductor will play a lone backup ticket with this longshot. He is exiting a wire to wire victory and there is not a lot of pace signed on in this one.

Race 10: 1 5/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 130k

This marathon maiden race is wide open. The Conductor will use #1 Meu Amor (12/1), #2 Summer in Saratoga (6/1), #6 Temple City Terra (4/1) , #8 Cambeliza (15/1), and #10 Coliean Bawn (5/2).

Advertisements
Ponies, Videos

Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor got off to a great start at Saratoga before mother nature ended his fun like the cruel witch she can be. Races 6 and 8 are on the turf today while 2,3 and 10 are off. Let’s pick up where we left off, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 7 Furlongs. F.MC 50000

#5 G. T. Sonia (10/1) – The heavy favorite #3 Countenance (3/5) is the one to beat, but this is the price the Conductor likes most. She’s run the fastest figures of the rest of the group and gets red-hot Alvarado in the irons.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. (OFF Turf) S.Mdn 78k

#8 Assault Breaker (5/2) – He looks like the clear one to beat on the dirt after scratches.

Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs. (OFF Turf) Alw 92000n1x

#7 Bernin’ Thru Gold (5/2) – He pressed a hot pace last start and still held on for 3rd. The Conductor sees him taking a step forward.

Race 4: 1 1/8 Mile. F.OC 625003x

#2 Viva Forever (6/1) – This mare ran a clunker last time, but if you toss that race out, she looks to have as good a chance as any in here.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 12500

#8 Ivy’s College Fund (8/1) – 3rd off the layoff, she’s trending in the right direction and the Conductor sees her taking another step forward today. The Conductor’s kids better get scholarships.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 90k

#7 Ocean Fire (4/1) – Making her 2nd carreer start, she ran a good 3rd in her debut. Mott runners always improve with a race under their belt.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. F.Alw 60000n1x

#6 Slimey (6/1) – Stepping up in class after a good win at Saratoga only 9 days ago. The Conductor loves her steady progression.

Race 8: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.OC 40000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Colonel Tom (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he drops back into state-bred company and has the fastest early pace figures in the field. He’ll be a big price because jockey Dylan Davis has yet to find the winners circle this meet.

the simpsons donuts GIF

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. Curlin Stakes 100k

*Never a Doubt Friday Night Bottle Service Lock of the Day #1 Intrepid Heart (7/2) – He was too far back behind a slow pace in the Belmont and was the wise guy horse that day. With major class relief here, the Conductor thinks there is still talent under the hood.

drunk fucked up GIF

Race 10: 1 Mile. (OFF Turf) S.MC 40000

#2 Talespin (12/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he showed good early speed and ran a good 3rd behind a next out winner last time.

Ponies

The Conductor’s Opening Day Plays at Del Mar

The Conductor's Scribe

Talk about action, big work week starts tomorrow. Toga rolls right into Del Mar, what a treat. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 Mile. Alw 50000

#4 Surprise Fashion (10/1) – Stretching out to a dirt route for the first time, the Conductor sees him stepping forward. He will key him in the exacta as the likely highest price on the board.

Race 2: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) S.OC 62500n2x

#5 Starting Bloc (4/1) – The Conductor liked his finish last time having to wait behind horses. He is steadily progressing this year.

Race 3: 1 Mile. Clm 16000

#1 Oh Man (7/2) – Dropping back to the claiming ranks, he has the best races at this distance in the field.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Clm 20000

#5 Giddymeister (5/2) – Winner of 3 of his last 4, he is in good form and keeps getting better.

Race 5: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 40000n1x

#6 Kiana’a Love (6/1) – She moves into the Peter Miller barn and he takes the blinkers off, which is a positive ROI move for him this year. This filly showed real talent in her debut win.

Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.S.MC 50000

#6 Golden Goddess (15/1) – The Conductor doesn’t have a strong opinion in this wide-open baby race. He likes this girl’s multiple 4F works.

Race 7: 5 Furlongs. F.S.Mdn 61k

*Never a Doubt Backstretch Birds Chirping Lock of the Day #3 Smiling Shirlee (3/1) – The word is out on this filly, just look at her work tab and you’ll see why.

race ostrich GIF

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) Runhappy Oceanside Stakes 100k

#2 Roger That (30/1) – The Conductor likes #8 Gregorian Hunt (7/2), and if you like him you must like Roger That at 8 times the price. He was only beaten 1 ¼ lengths by Gregorian Hunt in Ireland and he stretches out to a route today for the 1st time. The Conductor will key him in the trifecta.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. OC 40000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Jack Van Berg (20/1) – 1st time out for the Michael Puhich barn, he ran a good 3rd against a tough 12-horse field at Churchill last time. In this sprint without much pace, his early/turn pace figures make him very dangerous at a big number. The Conductor will key him in the exacta and trifecta.

punch throat GIF by The Art Of Self-Defense

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) S.Mdn 61k

#7 Unusually Handsome (8/1) – The Conductor like that Van Dyke takes the mount for the “other” Peter Miller entry in here.

Ponies

The Conductor’s Wednesday Preview at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

Solid Sunday for the Conductor as his lock and gullet shot of the day found themselves in the winner’s circle. We made a little money back from a poor opening week at Saratoga and now we must keep up the momentum. With Del Mar opening on Wednesday, the Conductor will have his full card top picks for both Toga and Del Mar thru the rest of the meets. His generosity knows no bounds. The racing summer is upon us, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: Jumper Race – Pass

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. S. Rick Violette Stakes 100k

#3 Mission Wrapitup (7/5) – His debut blowout win was very impressive.

Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

#9 Fully Vested (2/1) – 2nd off the layoff, this gelding ran a very good 2nd last time in his first try on turf.  He has serious early pace figures on dirt as well.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) Clm 40000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Hope Again (9/2) – 3rd off the layoff, he’s steadily progressing and won easily last start. Those are the types of runners the Conductor likes stepping up in class.

kenny rogers baseball GIF

Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 75k

#8 Devils Rendezvous (10/1) – This filly is working well, and her sire is winning at a 22% clip with 1st timers. The Conductor likes that Rosario hops aboard.

Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Clm 30000n2L

#2 Avacado Toast (6/1) – She’s lightly raced and trending in the right direction. She also gets a small weight break.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 90k

#7 Embellisher (5/1) – The two Chad Brown runners (6,9) are the ones to beat, but the Conductor will key this boy in the exacta. In his first start on turf last time, he set a hot pace and held on for a good 3rd. He gets a rider switch to Leparoux, who is very adept at rating speed horses on the front end.

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. F.Clm 100000

*Never a Doubt Chad Brown Lock of the Day #7 Break Curfew (5/2) – This filly is very quick and has an early pace advantage over this group. Gate to wire.

frustrated frustration GIF

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 62500n2x

#2 Carrera Cat (5/1) – 3rd off the layoff, this is another front-running filly the Conductor likes. Winner of four in a row, she’s has a chance to run them off their feet.

Race 10: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S. Mdn 78k

#3 Light in the Sky (9/2) – She’s well-bred for the turf and the jockey/trainer combo of Jose Ortiz/Linda Rice has been very good lately.

Ponies

Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

120k Pick 6 Carryover today, the Conductor just wants a pick 1 at this point. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Mdn 90k

#4 Pearlescent (6/1) – Mott’s debut runners haven been running very well as of late and he’s at his best sending them out in turf routes.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. Clm 25000n2L

#8 Elios Milos (9/2) – 2nd off the layoff, he’s lightly raced and has prior form that can beat this group.

Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.Mdn 78k

#3 Wild William (8/1) – The lone 4-year-old in the group, he has a year of maturity on them and quick early pace figures.

Race 4: 5 ½ Furlongs. S.Mdn 78k

#8 No Salt (3/1) – This colt is working like he’s the goods by all counts.

Rave 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Clm 40000

#8 Positive Skew (6/5) – Chad Brown Chalk.

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.S.Alw 80000n1x

#1A Lady Love (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she ran very well last time closing into a slow pace. She’ll be right there at the wire with a natural step forward.

Race 7: 6½ Furlongs. S.OC 40000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 T Loves a Fight (6/1) – Stepping up in class, he’s won two and a row and is running figures that make him competitive a at this level. He should get a perfect stalking trip behind a hot pace.

feeling neck skin GIF

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.OC 80000n1x

#9 Stellar Agent (6/1) – Stretching back out to a route, this filly flashed talent as a two-year-old. She looks to get a good trip in this spot, on or near a slow pace.

Race 9: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) – F.G3 Coronation Cup

*Never a Doubt Sunday Lock From God #4 Break Even (2/1) – This filly looks like a clear standout to the Conductor, she can scoot.

Image result for walking on water gif

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. MC 20000

#9 Go Get That (15/1) – Making just this third career start, the Conductor liked his improvement last race and sees him taking another step forward today.

Ponies, Videos

Esophagus Slice Saturday: The Conductor’s Plays at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor is in a nice hole to start the meet and that’s just the way he likes it. Back against the wall waking up with the cold sweats in the middle of the night. It tightens the brain and sharpens his capping. The first Saturday of the Saratoga meet, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 7 Furlongs. F.Clm 16000n2L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Magical Justice (10/1) – #10 She’s Not Bluffing (5/2) is the one to beat, but this filly is the price horse the conductor likes. She’s steadily progressing, has good early speed, and will be ignored shipping in from Thistledowns.

blood beheading GIF by History UK

Race 2: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.MC 40000

#2 Prisoner’s Dilemma (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff and dropping to the claiming ranks for the 1st time she’s very logical.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. G3 Stanford Stakes

#2 Raging Whiskey (5/2) – How cant the Conductor play him with a name like that?

Race 4: 5½ Furlongs. Mdn 90k

#1 High Tide (3/1) – Pletcher hasn’t been winning with these two-year old’s, the Conductor will give him one more chance here.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 92000n1x

#8 Catch a Thrill (9/2) – She caught a yielding turf course and stretching out vs Grade 2 competition last start. Her two grass sprints make her the one to beat in the Conductor’s opinion.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 90k

#2 Decorated Invader (4/1) – This 200k son of Declaration of War is bred to love the lawn for strong connections.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. S.Alw 80000n1x

#7 Lutsky (9/2) – 1st time for Navarro, he posses past performances that can beat this field.  The barn switch gives him a major chance.

Race 8: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 90k

#7 First Wave (4/1) – Drawn well to the outside making her 2nd career start, Rusty Arnold trainees always take big step forwards.

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) G1 Diana Stakes

#6 Homerique (5/2) – Which Chad Brown runner is going to win? The Conductor loves her late punch.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. Alw 92000n2x

*Never a Doubt Saturday Beach Trip Lock of the Day #5 Payne (6/5) – Looks like the chalk to the Conductor.

beach running GIF

Race 11: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) Clm 25000

#2 Shalako (10/1) – 3rd off the layoff and dropping in class, he’s pressed hot paces vs tougher in his last two starts. He also shortens 1/16 of a mile.

Ponies, Videos

Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

Not a great start to the meet, but the Guillo 1st time starter in race 5 kept us afloat. Off the turf again today except for races 3 and 9. Time to hop back in the saddle, Let’s Ride.

Race 1 1 1/8 Mile. MC 20000

#3 Derby Memories (6/1) – 2nd off the long layoff, he’s lightly raced, drops in class and returns to dirt where he showed speed in his debut. He also posted a nice work leading into today.

Race 2: 1 1/8 Mile. (OFF Turf) S.Mdn 78k

#13 Daddy Knows (1/1) – The lone MTO runner for Linda Rice, he looks tough to beat.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 62500n2x

#5 Ferdinanda (7/2) – She looks to get a perfect stalking trip sitting behind a hot pace. The Conductor’s only concern is her affinity to run 2nd. He’ll key her in the exacta.

Race 4: 7 Furlongs. Clm 12500

#3 Soul P Say (7/2) – Cutting back to a sprint should hit him right between the eyes.

Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 90k

#4 Lotta Ott (3/1) – Well-bred, she has a very nice work tab at Keeneland. Her sire wins at a 38% clip with 1st time starters.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (OFF Turf) Clm 50000

#2 Heavy Roller (10/1) – This gelding drops in for a tag and has very strong performances on good sloppy dirt tracks.

Race 7: 5 ½ Furlongs. (OFF Turf) F.S.Alw 80000n1x

#9 Filly Dilly (4/1) – Her debut got taken off the turf as well and she slaughtered the field.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. S.OC 25000n1x

*Never a Doubt Friday Night Bottle Service Best Bet of the Day #2 Dreamzapper (3/1) – Dropping out of open company and shipping in from Churchill, he looks primed for a big effort.

dance party GIF

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) G3 Forbidden Apple Stakes

#3 Hembree (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he ran a thunderous late pace figure in the Poker, closing into a slow pace. He’s a G2 winner and always runs well at this distance.

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Quarbaan (6/1) – He’s the one the Conductor likes most in here. Dropping out of G1 company and shortening back in distance, the Conductor is salivating at that price.

joey chestnut eating GIF by ESPN

Race 10: 5 ½ Furlongs. (OFF Turf) F.S.MC 40000

#2 Fight Night (9/2) – Making her 2nd start of the year, she has good early speed and is cutting back in distance.

Spot Play of the Day

Race 7: Daily Double 2,3 / 3,8

Ponies

Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Spot Plays at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

Stupid thunderstorms why can’t everything go smoothly one time. Hopefully they hold off and we stay on the turf, either way we play the cards we’re dealt. We’re still on the turf for now and the Conductor is locked in and ready for battle.

Just remember passengers it’s the first day, we don’t know how the track is playing or the different angles and trends that are working.  So, should take it slow Mr. Conductor? LOL, time to throttle it! Let’s Ride.

Image result for throttle gif

Full Card Top Selections Here: The Conductor’s Opening Day Plays at Saratoga

Spot Plays

Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 90k

Exactas: (2,3,12 / 1), (1 / 2,3,12), (1,3 / 2,12), (2,12 / 1,3)

Trifectas: (2,3,12 / 1 / All ), (2,3,12 / All / 1), (1 / 2,3,12 / All), (1 / All / 2,3,12)

Doubles: (2,3,12 / 7), (1 / 1,6,7), (1,2,3,12 / 1,7 )

Race 7: 1 /18 Mile. (Turf) F.S.OC 40000n2x

Doubles (If on the Turf): (1,3,4,5,6,10,11 / 3), (3,10,11 / 3,5)

Pick 4’s: (1,3,4,5,6,10,11 / 3 / All / 4,7,8,9), (3,10,11 / 1,3,5 / 1,2,4,10 / 4,9)

Ponies

Trachea Kick Tuesday: The Conductor’s Punts at Parx

The Conductor's Scribe

Decent day at Parx yesterday. Not a lot of big prices, but the winners were coming home. Let’s keep the train rolling. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 Mile. F.Clm 7500n2L

#3 Linda Listen (7/5) – This filly needs to bounce back, but she’s still lightly raced and has run by far the best figures in the field. The Conductor wants to play against her but doesn’t like the other contenders.

Race 2: 5 Furlongs. F.MC 10000

#9 Pablo’s Dream (6/1) – Shipping in from California after a long layoff she’s facing much weaker today, she doesn’t have to do much to beat this field.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.S.Mdn 40k

#6 J J Loves Billy (5/1) – This filly ran well in her debut and with a natural step forward she’ll have every chance.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Clm 5000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Surfing USA (8/1) – This old man is dropping in class and the conditions look to hit him right between the eyes.

kicks fail GIF by Cheezburger

Race 5: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 20000

#9 Baseline (9/2) – This group is tightly bunched on numbers and he’s exiting much tougher races. Class on the grass.

Race 6: 1m70yds. S.Clm 25000

#1 Devine Dental (2/1) – He looks to be cycling back to his top effort and that will make him tough to beat.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 50000n1x

*Never a Doubt Toga Bankroll Lock of the Day #7 Two Item Maker (5/2) – Making her 3rd career start, another step forward today and she’ll win for fun.

john belushi toga GIF by Top 100 Movie Quotes of All Time

Race 8: 1m70yds. Alw 12500

#2 His Royal Majesty (3/1) – 3rd off the layoff, he’s getting better with each race.

Race 9: 1 Mile. F.OC 35000n2x

#4 I’m Not Joking (6/1) – He’s very consistent and loves to win. The Conductor will make the favorites prove it to him.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. Clm 25000n3L

#1 Transitive (5/2) – He’s trending in the right direction and is lightly raced compared to many in this group who don’t like to win.

Ponies

Moon Shot Monday: The Conductor’s Punts at Parx

The Conductor's Scribe

It’s officially opening week at Saratoga. The Conductor is all tingly on the inside. Let’s build our bankroll, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 Mile. F.Clm 7500n4L

#4 Vested Venture (7/2) – This mare is trending in the right directions while the others are trying to bounce back.

Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs. Clm 7500

#4 Under the Graydar (6/1) – The Conductor will hammer him at that price, he’s been facing much tougher competition recently.

Race 3: 1m70yds. Alw 25000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 O’Kram (10/1) – He stepped up in class last start and improved his speed figure. The Conductor loves to see that.

burger lol GIF by Justin Gammon

Race 4: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 20000

#8 Two Weeks Off (6/1) – Dropping back to a level that fits, this old man is very dangerous.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.Alw 41000n1x

*Never a Doubt Week Starter Lock of the Day #6 I’m the Talent (9/5) – This filly is right, she has the most potential in the field.

computer GIF

Race 6: 1 Mile. F.Alw 46000n1x

#7 Style and Grace (7/2) – She’s run well vs tougher and gets a weight break today.

Race 7: 1m70yds. (Turf) S.F.Alw 41000n1x

#8 Promised Storm (4/1) – She hasn’t run well in her last two starts but has the ability to beat the favorite if she runs her good race. She loves to win races.

Race 8: 1 Mile. F.OC 50000n3x

#5 Trace of Grace (9/2) – 4th of the layoff, she’s taken a step forward in each of her starts this year.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. Clm 7500n3L

#9 Phyllis Driller (10/1) – Toss out her last start where she was eased. She returns to the races quickly and is working well. Her prior races would make her vie for favoritism here and she’ll be a nice number.