Tag: handicapping

Ponies, Videos

Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers at Aqueduct and the Sunland Derby

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor will never play Fair Grounds again. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. MC 20000

*Never a Doubt Sunday Night Scary Preventer But Not Really They Can’t Be Prevented Tonight Lock of the Day #3 Racing Raven (4/5) – Cutting back to a sprint, he has to beat this horrendous field.

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Race 2: 6½ Furlongs. Clm 40000b

#3 Bootlegger (4/1) – 3rd off the layoff and dropping in class, he looks to be a new animal this year.  His last two races give him every chance.

Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. S.Mdn 60k

#1 Holey Matrimony (9/2) – Debuting for a hot barn, this colt is well bred and working well.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 20000

#2 Give Me a Hug (3/1) – 2nd off the layoff and cutting back to a sprint this filly has been well bet vs much tougher.  The Conductor needs a big hug after Vegas.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.OClm 75000

#6 Movie Score (5/1) – She was only beaten a length two starts back vs similar with a solid figure and Ryerson is 25% with a +$0.50 ROI this year 1st off the claim.

Race 6: 1 Mile. S.Mdn 60k

#6 Papa Jim (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff and stretching out for the 1st time he ran a very good 3rd last start with a tough trip.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. S.Alw 64000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Shamrock Kid (9/2) – He ran a huge fire last start in the slop.  He’s in good form and has a pace edge over this group. 9/2 would be stealing.

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Race 8: 1 Mile. F.Alw 70000n1x

#8 Storm Rising (7/2) – She was bumped at the break and still demolished her competition in her debut. She has talent.

Race 9: 1 Mile. S.Clm 32000

#1 Oh K Funnybone (6/1) – He’s steadily progressing and stretching back out to a mile, where he has his lone win.

Sunland Park

Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile. G3 Sunland Park Derby

#2 Anotherwistafate (3/1) – #1 Much Gusto (8/5) is clearly the Baffert horse to beat, but he’ll likely go off at 2/5 in here.  This colt shipping in from Golden Gate will likely go off higher than 3/1 and the Conductor will take a swing with him.  He’s won three in a row going away in gate to wire fashion in San Francisco.  For anyone who pays attention to Golden Gate, its impossible to go gate to wire. He has potential.

Ponies

Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Fair Grounds

The Conductor's Scribe

Vegas is kicking the Conductor’s ass.  Let’s Ride,

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. OC 50000n1x

#4 Distant Shore (5/2) – The Conductor really liked her race two back in the Street Sense Stakes.  He’s hammering her to start the day if he can get 2/1.

Race 2: 1m70yds. F.S.Clm 5000

#4 Compromising (5/1) – The Conductor never compromises.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. Clm 25000

#1 Rule Taylor Rule (5/1) – He’s rounding into form and the Conductor sees him taking a step forward today.

Race 4: 1 Mile. S.Clm 12500b

#4 Point the Way (6/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she’ll stretch out to a route for the 1st time.  Her running style suggests she’ll be better longer.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 20000b

#5 Uncle Youdge (8/5) – This gelding can scoot.

Race 6: 1 Mile. S.MC 15000

#9 Brahms’ Regal (6/5) – Chalk

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.OClm 10000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Catty Krys (20/1) – This mare ran well at this level on dirt last start.  She’s won on the turf before and is in good form.

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Race 8: 1m70yds. S.Alw 47000n3L

#5 Tensas Talk (6/1) – He won nicely last start and hasn’t missed the board in 7 career starts.  You can rely on him.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 30000

#12 Tupelo Hon E (9/2) – 2nd off the layoff, dropping to the claiming ranks for the 1st time, she’ll kick by them down the lane.

Race 10: 5½ Furlongs. F.S.MC 12500

*Never a Doubt Friday Night in Vegas Lock of the Day #6 Deal Fever (7/2) – She took money at the windows against miles tougher in her debut and had a tough trip.  She’s more than likely.

las vegas dice GIF

Ponies

Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Plays at Fair Grounds

The Conductor's Scribe

College basketball and ponies from dawn until dusk.  What a treat, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1m70yds. F.S.Clm 5000b

#6 Born to D’ Wild (10/1) – Stretching back out to a route, she’s done her best running going longer. The Conductor will key her in the exacta.

Race 2: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 20000n3L

#3 Irritator (3/1) – He switches back to grass, where he’s run his best.  He also has the best early pace figures in the field.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. Clm 15000b

#4 B W P Express (4/1) – This colt will get the early lead and none of these runners like to pass horses.

Race 4: 5½ Furlongs. S.Clm 5000b

*Never a Doubt NCAA Tip Off Lock of the Day #7 Snapper Bite (7/5) – A standout that loves to win. Bite!

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Race 5: 6 Furlongs. S.Clm 5000n3L

#2 Lookingforroses (5/1) – 2nd off the layoff and getting a weight break, she’ll take them all the way around.

Race 6: 7½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.OC 20000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Starmaline (9/2) – She was bumped at the break, set a hot pace and was only beaten 2 ¾ lengths.  The Conductor loves her.

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Race 7: 5 1/2 Furlongs. Mdn 43k

#6 U Never Know (8/1) – The Conductor always knows.

Race 8: 5 1/2 Furlongs.  (Turf) OC 35000n4L

#7 Calamity Jane (7/2) – She’s been facing much tougher and is drawn well to the outside.

Race 9: 5 1/2 Furlongs. S.Alw 45000n2L

#9 Buckets (8/1) – Nothin but net.

Race 10: 1 Mile (Turf) MC 300000

#4 Jemography (7/2) – He stepped up in a big way last start. Another step forward and he’ll win for fun.

Race 11: 6 Furlongs. S.Clm 50000

#6 Born Again George (7/2) – 11 race cards on a Thursday are a little much.

Ponies

Wind Pipe Whack Wednesday: The Conductor’s Plays at Fair Grounds

The Conductor's Scribe

The train arrives in Vegas tonight. The Conductor will be playing the Fairgrounds all week leading up to the Louisiana Derby.  He will also sweep the NCAA tournament and win billion dollars.  Going to be a hell of a weekend.  Love to see a quick billion business trip. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 5 ½ Furlongs. S.F. Clm 5000n4L

#5 Dale’s Lil Sis (5/2) – She’s the one to beat.

Race 2: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.MC 30000

#4 Touch of Gray (9/2) – She has good early speed and dropping back to the claiming ranks. Trainer Tim Glyshaw is 10% with a +$0.74 ROI switching runners from dirt to turf.

Race 3: 1 Mile. S. Clm 5000n4L

#6 Weidenbachers Gent (15/1) – He has a chance to scamper away in the early lead.  That’s good enough for the Conductor at a bomb.

Race 4: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) S. OC 30000n1x

#7 Boston Bind (6/1) – His figures fit for this level.

Race 5: 1m70yds. F.MC 30000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Analyze This Cat (8/1) – 3rd off the layoff and going two sprints to a route, the Conductor sees her improving on the stretch out.

comedy bang bang punch GIF

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Clm 30000b

*Never a Doubt Nonstop Flight to Vegas Lock of the Day #1 Divine Quality (5/2) – She towers over this group.  She’ll win handily.

plane flight GIF

Race 7: 1m70yds. OC 17500n1x

#6 California Swing (4/1) – He’s in good form and should get a perfect trip with a contested pace to close into.

Race 8: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) OC 30000n1x

#10 Jake the Band Man (6/1) – He’s quick and should be able to clear from the outside.  He has a major shot.

Race 9: 5½ Furlongs. S.MC 12500

#5 Behinda Angel (15/1) – He broke last in his debut and ran decent to get 4th.  With a clean break he can take a big step forward and surprise at a monster number.

Ponies

Trachea Kick Tuesday: The Conductor’s Plays at Mahoning Valley

The Conductor's Scribe

This is a big week in the Conductor’s life. A very big week. The Conductor and the Bat will arrive in Vegas tomorrow night. Yikes, Let’s Ride.

las vegas nevada GIF

Race 1: 5 1/2 Furlongs. Mdn 22.1k

#7 Double Take (4/1) – As soon as the tote opened, the boy took money. They know.

Race 2: 1m70yds. Clm 75000n4L

#3 Flying Ghost (5/2) – He won nicely last start, closing into a slow pace.  He looks to get a perfect trip today with lots of speed signed on.

Race 3: 1 Mile. Clm 4000n3L

#6 Replay (4/1) – He’s coming into the race in good form and looks poised to run his best today.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 25000n3x

#2 Fionetta (7/2) – 2nd off the layoff, she’ll get back to a fast track today.  She loves to win races.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.S.Mdn 29.6k

#12 Wafflesorpancakes (9/2) – She ran a good 2nd at this level last start in a race with a very fast pace.  She gets a rider upgrade today.

Race 6: 5 1/2 Furlongs. F.Clm 5000n2x

#3 She’s a City Gal (15/1) – This jockey/trainer combo has connected with some bombs recently and this race is wide open.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. S.Clm 7500n2L

*Never a Doubt Bracket Bankroll Lock of the Day #5 Love Strut (5/2) – A heavy favorite last start, he got cooked in a hot pace.  He wont have that trouble today and will struuuuuuuttttttt his way to victory.

GIF by Conor McGregor

Race 8: 5 1/2 Furlongs. F.Clm 5000n3L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Adale (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she pressed a really hot pace last time.  She’ll step forward today and is the best bet on the card for the Conductor if her price stays above 7/2.

in the face kick GIF

Ponies

Moon Shot Monday: The Conductor’s Plays at Mahoning Valley

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor strung 4 winners in a row yesterday, highlighted by a 6/1 winner.  It was also St Patrick’s Day, so he doesn’t remember much else.  The Conductor needs to tighten it up a little bit again.  Wait a minute, he’s taking the train with the Bat to Vegas for March Madness this week? Yikes, that’s going to get extra leaky.  We’re going to have to build our bankroll.  Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1m70yds. Clm 5000n1y

#5 Colony Classic (15/1) – Its tough to take a 8 year old off a long layoff, but that’s why he’s the Conductor, he’s never scared. If this gelding is even remotely himself he can surprise at a big number.

Race 2: 1 Mile. F.Clm 4000n3y

*Never a Doubt Work Week Starter Lock of the Day 1/1A Entry (8/5) – Both these girls have good early speed in a race devoid of pace.

weekend team GIF

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. S.Alw 33100n1x

#7 Lunar Heat (2/1) – Drawn well to the outside, she’ll control the race.

Race 4: 1 Mile. Alw 23500n2L

#5 Chairman (5/1) – His speed figures fit against this group.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. Clm 4000n1y

#4 Dazzling Debuty (15/1) – This gelding contested a hot pace last time and faded late.  Without much other speed signed on here, she’ll get a more favorable trip today.

Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.S.Clm 7500n3L

#1 Even on the Run (8/1) – She stepped up in a big way last start. Another step forward gives her every chance.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 5000n2L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Let’er Eat (5/1) – She ran a good closing 3rd vs tougher last start. She’s hungry today.

ice cream eating GIF

Race 8: 5 ½ Furlongs. Clm 4000n1y

#8 Drinkinatthebar (8/1) – Speed kills.

Ponies, Videos

Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers at Oaklawn Park

The Conductor's Scribe

This is fun. The Conductor is having fun.

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. S.MC 30000

#5 Our Lucky Star (2/1) – Gate to wire.

Race 2: 1 3/16 Mile. Alw 10000s

#1 Street Trust (5/2) – The Conductor wan him to go right to the front and use his early pace advantage.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. MC 20000

#3 Into My Dreams (6/1) – He needed his last race off a long layoff. He’s taking a big class drop and has run well vs much tougher.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Clm 30000

#1 One Man Party (5/2) – Sounds like the Conductor’s life.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. Clm 30000

#7 Cash for the Soul (12/1) – Always a good remedy.

Race 6: 1 1/18 Mile. F.OC 50000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Moonlight Train (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she needed that last race and still ran a good 2nd.  She’ll be even better today.

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Race 7: 6 Furlongs. OC 50000n2x

#2 Nuclear Option (8/1) – He made an early move into a hot pace last start. This colt has serious early pace.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. F.OC 50000n2x

*Never a Doubt Sunday Night Scary Preventer Lock of the Day #8 Always Enuff (2/1) – 2nd off the layoff, this mare looks primed to dominate this field.

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Race 9: 6 Furlongs. Alw 12500s

#10 Tres Equis (12/1) – 3rd off the layoff and cutting back to a sprint, the Conductor will key him in the exacta and trifecta.

Ponies

Esophagus Slice Saturday: The Conductor’s Rebel Stakes Day Plays at Oaklawn Park

The Conductor's Scribe

One of the best gambling Saturdays of the year.  Huge day at Oaklawn with college basketball conference championship games. Buckle your seat belts, only the strong will survive.  Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 100k

#9 Tapizar’s secret (8/1) – He’s just missed at Saratoga and Keeneland.  Those maiden fields are always loaded, he has talent.

Race 2: 1½ Mile. Alw 8000s

#6 Tales of War (4/1) – He’s upped his game this year and is a very consistent runner.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. Mdn 100k

#2 Proverb (6/1) – The Conductor is the truth, and so is this boy.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 62500n1x

#5 Dessman (8/5) – The Conductor was impressed with this colt’s effort in the San Vicente.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. Mdn 100k

#6 Incorrigible (7/2) – 2nd off the layoff, he made a strong move into a hot pace last start.  He’ll be more fit today and gets a rider upgrade.

Race 6: 1 Mile. OC 50000n2x

#1 Mercer Island (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff, this old man romped in the slop last start. He’s a very consistent runner and loves this distance.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Grade 2 Azeri Stakes

*Never a Doubt Arkansas Hog Lock of the Day #5 Elate (8/5) – She’s the most talented mare in training as far as the Conductor in concerned.

home run derby win GIF

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. G2 Rebel Stakes

#1 Extra Hope (6/1) – #9 Improbable (3/5) is clearly the one to beat, but the Conductor likes this colt’s steady progression and his win last race.  He can take a big step forward as a 3-year-old. The Conductor will hammer the 9/1 and 1/9 exacta.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. EssexHL350K

#7 Snapper Sinclair (9/2) – He showed talent as 3-year-old and is rounding back into form. He’s working like a monster.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. G2 Rebel Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Our Braintrust (6/1) – Splitting Up the Rebel worked out perfectly for Baffert. Shocker. The Conductor will try to beat him in this one. He liked this boy’s fight in the Withers and that he’s shortening 1/16 of a mile today.  He’ll get first run on the leaders and #5 Game Winner (4/5) will have to pass him late.

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Race 11: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 100k

#4 Josie Boy (8/1) – A little birdie told the Conductor this colt is ready to run.

Ponies

Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Rebel Eve Plays at Oaklawn Park

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor’s brain is in a pretzel there are too many games, too many races, too much action going on right now.  He believes he stunk yesterday, but he’s alive an that’s all that matters. If you live to fight another day in March, then you are a winner.  Come get some Oaklawn, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. MC 10000

#4 Hesluck (15/1) – Dropping in class going two sprints to a route, he is untested going longer.  He’s a wildcard that can hit the board at a monster number.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. S.Clm 16000n2L

#3 Oh So Tall (6/1) – His early pace figures make him dangerous in a sprint without much early speed.

Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.MC 10000

#9 Paddydunalot (5/1) – 1st off the claim for solid connections, this girl once hit the board vs maiden special weights in New York.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 62500n1x

#6 Kada (5/2) – She’s got an early pace edge over this group. Gate to wire.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. MC 30000

#5 I’m Happy (3/1) – Dropping in class, this colt has good early speed and has run a couple of races that will eviscerate this field.

Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.Alw 10000s

*Never a Doubt Friday Night Bottle Service Lock of the Day #4 Honey Bunny (2/1) – 3rd off the layoff, she’s a standout. Stalk and pounce.

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Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 30000

 #1 Secret House (2/1) – The Conductor is a sucker for speed. Gate to wire.

Race 8: 1 Mile. OC 16000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Determinant (6/1) – He closed nicely into a slow pace last start for 4th.  He’ll get a better setup today.

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Race 9: 6 Furlongs. Clm 10000n2L

#14 Dedicated (20/1) – The Conductor is hoping he draws in with some scratches. He’s routed over wet tracks and has run terribly in his last two starts, but he gets back to what he wants today. Sprinting on a fast dirt track, his figures fit at this level and he can light up the tote board.

Ponies

Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Plays at Oaklawn Park

The Conductor's Scribe

Highlighted by a 6/1 winner, another decent day for the Conductor yesterday.  Slow and steady, it’s grind time.  College basketball games everywhere you look, ponies running left and right, the Players golf tournament.  The Conductor has action anywhere and everywhere.  We need to keep it sharp and keep it tight! Off to Oaklawn we go, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 30000n3L

#2 King’s Reckoning (12/1) – He needed his last race off a long layoff and an ok 4th. Dropping in class and more fit today, he looks poised to run his best and his figures fit against this group.  He likes to run 2nd more than win, so the Conductor will key him in the exacta.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 40000

*Never a Doubt College Basketball Tournament Losing Bets Refund Lock of the Day #7 Honest N Lucky (4/1) – She took money vs maidens in her debut and was jostled at the start. She’s plunging in class today and trainer McLean Robertson is 4 for his last 8.

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Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. MC 30000

#1 Praetorian (9/2) – Dropping in class of a long layoff, he’s gotten clipped since is last start and is working well.  His race two back vs tougher gives him every chance today.

Race 4: 1 1/8 Mile. Clm 10000n1y

#10 Solar Maximus (8/1) – He had a troubled trip last start and still ran 4th at this level last time.  He comes running from the clouds, so the Conductor will use him more heavily underneath in the exacta and tri.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. MC 10000

#10 C Dub (10/1) – Taking a big drop in class he has very strong early pace figures and he’ll carry his speed farther vs this group.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. F.10000n3L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Well Maid (10/1) – Cutting back to a sprint after pressing a hot pace vs tougher last time, the Conductor loves her.

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Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.S.Mdn 83k

#4 Firm Alexis (9/2) – The Conductor doesn’t have a strong opinion here, she has a good chance.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. S.OC 25000n2x

#1 By Bye J (1/2) – Chalk.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. Alw 84000n2L

#6 Mojovation (5/1) – 1st off the claim for Broberg, this colt has faced the toughest competition.