Tag: handicapping

Ponies

The Conductor’s Preakness Day Late Pick 5 Plays at Pimlico

The Conductor's Scribe

It was a chalky Friday at Pimlico, but if you listened to the Conductor you passengers at least Cashed the pick 5. The late pick 5 will be the Conductor’s focus Saturday as well.  We are not in this game for little cashes. Let’s hit a monster and change our little lives. Let’s Ride.

Race 9: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) F.100K The Very One Stakes

The Conductor is spreading. #3 Eye On Berlin (10/1), #4 Souper Echo (9/2), #6 Jo Jo Air (3/1), #7 Angel at War (12/1), #8 Misericordia (4/1), #9 Wild About Star (9/2) 

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Gallorette Stakes

#1 I’m So Fancy (7/2) – Her European form can’t be denied, she’s quality.

#2 Inflexibility (3/1) – Chad Brown.

#3 Thewayiam (10/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she looks perfectly pointed for this spot. She’s Grade 1 placed and will be a nice number.

#4 Mitchell Road (6/1) – She’s steadily progressing and answering every test. The Conductor won’t get beat by her.

#9 Barkaa (6/1) – Chad Brown.

Race 11 6 Furlongs. G3 Chick Lang Stakes

#3 Malpais (3/1) – He’s in great form, the Conductor can’t knock her.

#6 Gladiator King (6/1) – When this colt is sprinting on dirt, he is dangerous.

#8 Preamble (5/2) – The Conductor will heavily press him. 2nd off the layoff, he’ll have him singled on some tickets.

Race 12: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) G2 Dixie Stakes

*Never a Doubt Preakness Lock of the Day #12 Catholic Boy – Tough post, but if he runs his race its over. He’ll either run 1st or last and the Conductor will bet its the first one.

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Race 13: The Conductor’s Preakness Preview

*Gullet Shot of the Day #13 Win Win Win (15/1) – We will find out if the Conductor was right all along.

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Ponies

Wind Pipe Whack Wednesday: The Conductor’s Plays at Louisiana Downs

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor has no idea why the Preakness draw is not until 5:00pm today when Friday’s card was available Monday.  That doesn’t make any sense, just like most things in horse racing.  Whatever, I guess his Preakness day preview will have to wait until tomorrow. Until then, we might as well pick up a few bucks on our way to Baltimore. It is wind pipe whack Wednesday after all, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1m70yds. Clm 5000b

#3 Dry Wood Creek (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he’ll get a good trip up close to the front in a race with absolutely no pace.

Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs. F.Clm 5000b

*Never a Doubt Humpday Lock #1A Angel d’Oro (6/5) – She looks to be a step above this group.

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Race 3: 1m70yds. Clm 5000n2L

#3 Vivinsky (10/1) – He showed ability in his debut, maybe he’ll find new life running for a new barn.  This field is very weak, so he doesn’t have to wake up much to be a factor.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 7500b

 #6 Hawks Peak (3/1) – He’ll go right to the front and shouldn’t get much pressure. Gate to wire.

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. S.F.Clm 5000n2L

*Gullet Shot of the Day Weavemeawinr (12/1) – She’s been facing tougher and is trending in the right direction.

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Race 6: 5 Furlongs. F.S.Clm 5000n2L

#1 Lil Kylie (5/2) – She’s taking a significant class drop and has good early speed.

Race 7: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.MC 12500

#9 Quisty Busty (8/1) – He has a chance to improve trying the lawn and stretching out for the first time. He’s bred to be better than these colts.

Ponies

Moon Shot Monday: The Conductor’s Plays at Louisiana Downs

The Conductor's Scribe

Rain took the races off the dirt yesterday at Belmont, but a nice 9/1 winner in Race 2 made it a good Sunday. Its officially Preakness week and the Conductor’s head is spinning.  He’ll give us some winners at Louisiana today, then his focus will turn to the upcoming feature races at Pimlico.  We let the Derby slip through our fingers in the slop, we can’t let it happen again.  Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs. Mdn 18k

#5 Track Binder (5/1) – His low % jockey/trainer combo have lit up the tote board recently and this boy’s sire wins at a 20% clip with 1st time starters.

Race 2: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 25000n1x

#6 Zarelda (4/1) – She’s been facing much tougher and has run quality races on the dirt in her young career.  She’s bred to be even better on the lawn.

Race 3: 1m70yds. S.Clm 7500n2x

#5 Crooked as Can Be (9/5) – He bounced back nicely last race and has strong back class.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 12500

#10 Betty’s Joy’s Star (5/2) – Shipping in from the Fair Grounds, she must beat this field.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. S.MC 12500

#6 Shot On Windy Hill (6/1) – He’s shown good early speed and gets a major trainer upgrade to Beverly Burress, who has a +$2.04 ROI running horses for the 1st time this year.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 19000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Thegreyspider (6/1) – The drop in class helped him last time. He consistently runs the highest figures in the field.

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Race 7: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.MC 5000

*Never a Doubt Week Starter #6 Cool Sis (1/1) – She can’t lose.

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Ponies

Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Mothers Day Prayers at Belmont Park

The Conductor's Scribe

We finally found a few winners yesterday at Belmont. Heading into Preakness week, we need more than a few. The Conductor’s mother hopes he gets hot soon or he’s going to move back into her basement. Happy Mother’s Day!  Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 7 Furlongs. Clm 10000

#1 Zap Zap Zap (12/1) – He always runs well at Belmont and this race is wide open.  The Conductor will key him in the exacta.

Race 2: 6½ Furlongs. S.MC 25000

#1 Bustin Shout (12/1) – He was eased in his debut but was well bet at the windows and has been gelded since.  He can surprise the bettors who don’t follow the Conductor.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.Clm 40000n2L

#4 Roses From Ben (8/1) – She’s 1/1 on the lawn and will be a big price.  Most of these runners haven’t proven anything on the grass.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 80k

#6 Sneakiness (9/2) – Drawn well to the outside, he showed ability in his debut last fall and is working like a monster entering today.

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. S.Clm 40000

#4 Stink Man (4/1) – The Conductor has no idea what happened last start, but he showed real talent in hist 1st career start.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 30000n2L

*Never a Doubt Pay For Moms Brunch Lock of the Day #3 Hope Again (3/1) – These Tampa shippers continue to run very well.

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Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 62500n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Saguaro Row (4/1) – She’s going to get a perfect trip, sitting behind a hot pace.  She’s steadily progressing and has run against some classy fillies.

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Race 8: 6 Furlongs. 100K Gold Fever Stakes

#3 Sombeyay (9/2) – This is a loaded non-graded stakes.  The Conductor would love him to be the third betting choice.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 62k

#9 Quiet Out East (4/1) – The Conductor doesn’t have a clue in here.

Ponies

Esophagus Slice Saturday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

The Conductor's Scribe

Belmont has completely baffled the Conductor the last two days.  Hell of a card today, it would be a great time for the Conductor to get hot. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6½ Furlongs. F.G3 Vagrancy Handicap

#4 Separationofpowers (7/5) – This filly looks like a cinch to start the card.

Race 2: 1 Mile. Mdn 80k

#6 Principled (5/2) – Heavily bet at Saratoga last summer and drawn well to the outside, this colt has talent.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 82000n1x

#2 Miss Mystique (6/1) – They layoff and low % trainer should keep her price high, she’s run well of breaks before and hast the best turf figures in the field.

Race 4: 1 1/8 Mile. G3 Peter Pan Stakes

*Never a Doubt Saturday Lock of the Day #3 Global Campaign (8/5) – The Florida Derby has come back very live and he moved into the teeth of the hot pace in there. He’s going to win for fun today.

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Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) MC 40000

#2 Whiskey Is My Wine (8/1) – Whiskey is the Conductor’s water.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. Clm 50000

#4 Felix in Fabula (7/5) – He looks extremely tough to beat on the cutback.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F. G3 Beaugay Stakes

#1 Chipolata (4/1) – She ran well to close into a slow pace and get the job done last start. She has back class and looks poised to run her best 2nd off the layoff.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 80k

#4 Structural Deficit (5/1) – A well-bred Chad Brown filly is going to be 2nd choice? The Conductor will take her.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. 150K Runhappy Stakes

#3 Firenze Fire (7/2) – 2nd off the layoff, he looks to get a perfect stalking trip, tracking a fast pace.

Race 10: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) G1 Man O’ War Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Hunting Horn (10/1) – He’s caught a yielding course and has legitimate excuses in most of his North American races.  He fits with this group and the Conductor will key him in the trifecta at a nice number.

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Race 11: 6 Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 62k

#4 Electronic (3/1) – She acted up at the gate and still ran a good 4th, closing into a slow pace in her debut. She’ll take a step forward today.

Ponies

Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Plays at Belmont Park

The Conductor's Scribe

A nice little twilight card with no rain today in New York. With the Preakness only 9 days away, we need to fill up the train with funds fast. Let’s Ride!

Race 1: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 62500n2x

#5 Crimson Forest (6/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she’s been running competitive figures for this level on dirt and has only tried the turf once in her career.  She’s bred to handle the lawn just fine.

Race 2: 5 Furlongs. F.S.Mdn 62k

#3 American Song (5/2) – Trainer Jeremiah Englehart has a positive ROI this year with 1st time starters and this girl’s sire hits at 18% with debut runners.

Race 3: 1 ¼ Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 90k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Tiberius Mercurius (6/1) – 2nd off the layoff, this colt ran a strong 2nd last start, closing into a slow pace.  He also gets a rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz.

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Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 40000

#2 Thomond Park (6/1) – Just missing last time at Tampa, he’ll appreciate the shorter distance and the Conductor has seen a lot of Tampa shippers run very well lately.

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. S.OC 40000n2x

#5 Real Dan (4/1) – 2/2 in his 1st two starts, he looks to get a perfect trip stalking a quick pace.

#7 Sicilia Mike (8/1) – He won’t win, but he’ll hit the board. The Conductor will key him underneath in the exacta and trifecta.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 12500

#6 Riot Worthy (9/2) – The Conductor will key her in the exacta because she loves to run 2nd. She looks to get a dream trip, closing into a hot pace.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 80k

#1/1A Entry (5/2) – The Conductor likes both runners, he hopes neither scratch and he can single here.

Race 8: 1 3/8 Mile. Flat Out Stakes 100k

*Never a Doubt Tell Your Boss Your Taking Friday Off and Have Yourself a Long Weekend Lock of the Day #5 Rocketry (9/5) – He had no chance last start at Gulfstream trying to close into a ridiculously slow pace. 2nd off the layoff, he’ll annihilate this field.

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Race 9: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F.S.Alw 66000n1x

#4 Love and Love (20/1) – The Conductor will take a shot in a wide-open race. She’s run well both sprinting and routing, which the Conductor like to see.

Ponies

Wind Pipe Whack Wednesday: The Conductor’s Plays at Louisiana Downs

The Conductor's Scribe

A couple of winners including the lock of the day yesterday for the Conductor. He’ll keep the train down in Louisiana for one more day before heading up to New York tomorrow. A little gumbo and a tall glass of stew on a Wednesday? The Conductor certainly will. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1m70yds. MC 5000

#1 Bailey’s Power (5/2) – Exiting a race that has come back live and lightly raced, he’s the only runner you can possibly like in here.

Race 2: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 12500n2L

#3 Meditate (6/1) – The Conductor will find his Zen with this boy.

Race 3: 1m70yds. F.MC 5000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Catbalee (12/1) – Coming from facing tougher at the Far Grounds, she hasn’t shown much in her first two starts, but should be forwardly placed. She’s taken some money at the windows and changes barns.

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Race 4: 5 Furlongs. F.S.Clm 5000

 #2 Doc’s Rocket (9/2) – She has the strongest early pace figures and has been facing tougher lately.

Race 5: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 7500

#8 T’ Cadeau (5/1) – This gelding has been pressing hot paces vs tougher at the Fair Grounds. He gets a weaker group and a rider upgrade today.

Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs. S.OC 12500n1x

#2 Saltee Shark (9/2) – The Conductor likes his steady progression and sees him getting a perfect trip sitting just behind the dueling speed horses, ready to pounce.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. S.Clm 50003n3L

*Never a Doubt Humpday Lock #6 Kool Yankee (9/2) – He showed promise as a young colt and is in as good form.

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Ponies

Trachea Kick Tuesday: The Conductor’s Plays at Louisiana Downs

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor is back to finding us winners.  Down to the Bayou we go, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.MC 12500

#6 Elizabeth’s Music (9/2) – Drawn well to the outside, she is facing the weakest group she ever has today.

Race 2: 1m70yds. F.Clm 5000n4L

#1 Cause You Can (9/5) – The Conductor doesn’t see her losing.

Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs. MC 20000

#1 He’s an Honest Man (3/1) – The class relief should be enough to get the job done today.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Clm 12500n2L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Kehron’s (8/1) – She’s been running competitive figures on dirt and she’s hit the board in her lone two turf races. The Conductor will use her more underneath in the exacta and tri.

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Race 5: 6 Furlongs. Clm 5000n4L

#7 Rebel Gentlemen (4/1) – He showed improvement last start and he has past figures that woul obliterate this field.

Race 6: 7 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Clm 7500

#6 Shea’s Lil Snug (7/2) – She’s an in an out filly.  A sub-par effort last time means a good one today.

Race 7: 1m70yds. Clm 5000n3L

*Never a Doubt Back on the Horse Lock of the Day #5 Lascivious (2/1) – His recent races at the Fair Grounds make him a clear standout.

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Ponies

It is Officially Derby Week: The Conductor’s Oaks Day Preview Coming Tonight

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor will be in his capping lair for the foreseeable future. His eyes will be bleeding from scouring the form and replays, but his Oaks card preview will be up later tonight and Derby card preview will be posted Tuesday night. The Conductor is ready for war. Sleep tight Churchill, if you listen closely you can here the train rumbling in the distance.  There will be hell to pay. Let’s Ride.

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Ponies

Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Lock of the Day at Belmont Park

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor doesn’t have time for us passengers today, but he generously gave us his Sunday Lock. Let’s climb out of our weekend hole. Let’s Ride

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) F. 125k License Fee Stakes

#5 Broadway Run (3/1) – The Conductor doesn’t care about the layoff since he won in his debut. He’s never been out of the exacta at Belmont and is a winner of a stakes race at Saratoga. The Conductor will single him in all of the exotics.