Tampa Bay Downs Saturday Picks — February 8, 2025 | Derby Prep Season Best Bets

A group of horses racing on a grassy track with jockeys in colorful attire.

It’s tough right now to open the form on a weekday and see any track offering a good product. Horse racing is in a rough state. However, weekend cards are much more enticing and winter will come to an end at some point. Derby Prep season is beginning. Let’s start stacking coal before the spring is here. Skip.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 32000n2x

#2 Seat At the Table (6/1) – The Conductor has knocks against all the favorites in this race and likes this filly at a square price. She’s 2/2 on the turf this year and won last time stepping up in class and stretching out to this distance. She ran a formidable late pace figure last time and draws well today on the inside.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 53k

#10 Calla (20/1) – One of the Chad Brown horses will probably win this race, but the Conductor likes this filly to outrun her odds. She takes a big step up in class today, which should keep her price high. Her debut on the lawn last time was very impressive. She came from the clouds with a thunderous stretch kick despite being behind a slow pace. This filly can mow and the class hike makes sense.

Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. Sam F. Davis S. Stakes

#2 Treaty of Rome (6/1) – This colt showed real guts last time trying to rundown a lone leader that set a slow pace. That race looks to set him up perfectly for this spot and he should like the added distance. The Conductor sees him getting an ideal trip sitting right behind a contested pace and getting the first jump on the closers. 4/1 or better would be a treat.

1 1/18 Mile. (Turf) Alw 53000n1x

#4 Heathguard (10/1) – This gelding ran a big race despite a poor trip off the bench last time. He made an early wide move into a quick pace and sustained his bid for 2nd. The Conductor really liked how he dug in and didn’t let the horse to his outside with momentum pass him late. With a more favorable trip today, the Conductor thinks he has a big shot.

Bet $250 at Iron Bets or more on the Tampa Bay Downs card on Saturday and earn a FREE $20 wager!

Tampa Bay Downs Wednesday Picks — January 29, 2025 | Best Bets & Analysis

An elderly train conductor with a gray beard and a cap, operating a vintage locomotive, showcasing the essence of railway history.

The Conductor needed to leave Ohio asap. Another garbage performance at Mahoning Valley Tuesday has the passengers up in arms. He needs to get back to warm weather and turf racing, where the tape don’t lie. The real racing week starts on Wednesday at Iron Bets, everyone knows that. Skip.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 16000

#1 Float On By (3/1) – This filly set a fair pace for this level last time going longer. She was rundown late, but now cuts back 1/16th of a mile and takes the blinkers off. Trainer Arnaud Delacor is 11/30 this year, with a whopping +$1.78 ROI this year removing blinkers. The Conductor expects Float On By to run a career best effort today.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 20000

#2 God With Us (6/1) – This colt is steadily improving and ran a solid 4th last time sprinting on the dirt. Now he switches to the turf, the surface he’s bred for. His lone turf race to this point was against miles tougher in a stakes race. This is his first chance to mow vs reasonable competition. We’ll see if God is with us or against us in the 5th.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Clm 16000n2L

#5 Permed (4/1) – This filly’s price should float up a bit for a small barn. As far as the tape is concerned, she was best in her last race at this level. She was checked on the first turn and was stuck behind horses deep in the stretch. Permed showed grit, finishing with interest and galloping out in front of the pack. 4/1 or better today is fair for the Conductor.

Mahoning Valley Tuesday Picks — January 28, 2025 | Best Bets & Handicapping

A group of horses with jockeys in colorful silks racing on a dirt track with spectators in the background.

The only thing colder than a Midwest winter was the Conductor’s picks Monday. 0/3 and we weren’t even close. The outside posts were where you wanted to be and Mr. Ductor’s horses were running on the inside. That’s the danger of submitting picks early on dirt. Pay close attention to the track passengers, and always be willing to adapt if you see a trend. Bounce back Tuesday, Let’s Ride.

Race 2: 5½ Furlongs. Clm 5000n3L

#6 Wild Time (5/1) – Throw out this geldings last try in the slop. His numbers fit with this group on a fast dirt track. He looks to get an ideal outside stalking trip today and he will have pace to run at. The Conductor is hoping the favorites duel each other into submission early.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 10000n1y

#5 Half Birthday (8/1) – This mare has run many speed figures that can beat this group on synthetic. She hasn’t been able to translate them to dirt, but she moved into a much improved barn last time. Now making making her 2nd start off the bench, the Conductor thinks she bucks that trend today. Trainer Valerie Shanyfelt is winning a 29% clip with a ridiculous +$5.72 ROI with horses making their 2nd start. The Conductor likes the confidence they have to bump Half Birthday up in class after last time too.

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. Clm 5000n2y

#6 Monterey Peninsula (5/1) – This gelding dropped to this level last time and ran a decent 3rd in the slop. He was claimed out that race and the Conductor thinks that was a smart move. Monterey Peninsula will face the weakest level of competition he ever has today on a fast dirt track. He isn’t a mudder and will like the return to his preferred surface.

Don’t be stupid passengers, always play Mahoning Valley with Iron Bets to get the best wager rewards.

Mahoning Valley Monday Picks — January 27, 2025 | Best Bets & Analysis

A group of racehorses competing on a dirt track at Mahoning Valley Race Course during a race.

After the Pegasus weekend, all the fair-weather fans put their fancy clothes away and don’t think about horse racing until the first Saturday in May. The true grinders and passengers show up and punch the clock on Monday in Youngstown, OH. If they’re smart they use Iron Bets too. Skip.

Race 4: 1 Mile. F.Clm 7500n3L

#4 Queen Lexi (8/1) – This filly ran well sprinting last time, closing into a slow pace while being in the parking lot on the turn. Now with two sprints under her belt, she stretches out to a route in her 3rd start off a short break. Trainer Tommy short is 19% with a +$0.57 ROI this year with this training pattern. The Conductor would love over 5/1 in this wide open race.

Race 5: 1 Mile. Clm 15000

#2 Rose’s Pepino (9/2) – This gelding runs monstrous late pace figures every time. He had no chance last time being far back early behind a tepid pace. If this field stays in tact, he should get a much more favorable pace scenario today. He will be flying late.

Race 6: 1 Mile. Clm 4000n2y

#3 Endless Sunset (15/1) – This gelding moved into a much improved barn last start and showed more early speed in the slop vs tougher. Now he drops in class and gets back to fast dirt track for the first time in ages. His last start on fast dirt was good enough to win this race. Endless Sunset is the Conductor’s favorite longshot on the card.

2025 Pegasus World Cup Picks & Best Bets — Full Card Gulfstream Park Analysis

A dynamic image of a racehorse galloping with a jockey in colorful attire during a sunset, showcasing speed and energy.

The Conductor has a fire in his belly waiting for Saturday. The turf races especially at Gulfstream look ripe for the taking. Let’s have ourselves a weekend to remember passengers. Skip.

Race 7: 1½ Mile. (Turf) F.G3 La Prevoyante Stakes

#10 Forever After All (5/1) – This mare has been best in her last three races and poor trips have cost her. She unfortunately draws an outside post here, but the Conductor trusts Gaffalione to give her a fair chance. She’ll be the 3rd or 4th betting choice in this race and the Conductor thinks she’s the most likely winner. He must play her despite the poor draw.

Race 8: 1 Mile. G3 Fred W. Hooper Stakes

#5 Tumbarumba (2/1) – The Conductor thinks this hard knocking gelding gets the job done today. He takes the blinkers off and shortens 1/16 of a mile from his last race. Without much other speed in here, Tumbarumba will be very tough to pass in the stretch.

Race 9: 1½ Mile. (Turf) G3 William L. McKnight Stakes

#12 Cash Equity (6/1) – Another outside post in a turf route, what could go wrong? This gelding had a trip from hell last time and has run better than it looks on paper in his last few starts. He has class edge over this group and Irad hops aboard for the first time. If Irad can give him a fair trip, the Conductor thinks he will get his picture taken.

Race 10: 1 1/16 G2 Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf

#7 Minoushka (10/1) – The Conductor likes a few longshots in this race. Listen to the podcast below to find out the rest. Minoushka impressed the Conductor with her dominant performance at Keeneland in her US debut. She ran well stepping up in class last time too, closing well behind a slow pace. The Brendan Walsh runners have been firing on the Gulfstream turf all winter, and the Conductor thinks the trend continues Saturday.

Race 11: 7 Furlongs. F.G2 Inside Information Stakes

#9 Emery (3/1) – This filly hasn’t been defeated on a fast dirt track and the Conductor can’t play against her here. She looks to get an ideal outside stalking trip and is a cut above this group in his opinion.

Race 12: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Mi Hermano Ramon (8/1) – This gelding is in career best form and draws well to the inside. He had a terrible turf trip last time and sustained his run for 2nd after making a 4-wide move on the turn. With a fair trip today he can upset the favorites here in the turf feature.

Race 13: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes

#11 Locked (5/2) – The Conductor would be surprised if #4 White Abario (3/1) or Locked don’t win this years Pegasus. The Conductor leans Locked, who looks to gets the patented Johnny V outside stalking trip. He’s not convinced White Abario is as good as he once was despite being back in the Saffie Joseph barn. The one price that intrigues the Conductor underneath the favorites in this race is #6 Stronghold (10/1). Stronghold showed talent on the Derby trail last year and ran big sprinting in his return in the Malibu last time. That race looks to set him up perfectly to stretch out to his best distance today. He can inject value into this race.

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 The Pony Conductor

The Pegasus World Cup is here and the Conductor is ready to fire. He hasn't liked a card at Gulfstream this much maybe ever. Don't listen to this if you haven't signed up at Iron Bets yet with this link. You're not allowed. Skip.
  1. Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025
  2. Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/23/2024
  3. Churchill and Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/16/2024
  4. Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/9/2024
  5. 2024 Breeders' Cup Preview

Aqueduct Friday Picks — January 24, 2025 | NYRA Best Bets & Handicapping

A group of horses racing on a dirt track with spectators in the background.

The Conductor is longing for the spring when turf racing returns to New York. Make sure you’re locked and loaded at Iron Bets before then. The dirt product is decent Friday with bigger fields the latter half of the card. Let’s pick up some coal on the east coast. Skip.

Race 1: 7 Furlongs. F.MC 20000

#6 My Angel (2/1) – This mare was well bet off over a year layoff last time going 6 furlongs. She showed speed after a slow start and made a little move on the backstretch entering the turn. She draws a great outside post in a small field and will be more fit with that race under her belt. The Conductor expects her to improve today and beat his field of proven losers.

Race 7: 1 Mile. Alw 50000s

#6 Blame It On Daddy (8/1) – This gelding popped switching to the dirt last time. The Conductor doesn’t think there was anything fluky about that effort. He sees him repeating that race with a favorable outside stalking trip today. Daddy didn’t like the grass, he wants to dig his victories out of the dirt.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. S.MC 30000

#6 Wind Dancer (8/1) – This gelding made an early and wide move into a quick pace last time going 7 furlongs. He rightfully tired late and now he shortens in distance. Making just his third start on a fast dirt track today, Wind Dancer has upside.

Mahoning Valley Thursday Picks — January 16, 2025 | Best Bets & Handicapping

A group of horses racing at Mahoning Valley with jockeys in colorful attire.

0/3 Wednesday for the Conductor at Mahoning Valley. That’s not what we like to see. However, with the 15% takeout on pick 3/4/5’s, the Conductor has taken a liking to the track. Any track that reduces takeout, or ADW that actually gives you rewards (Iron Bets), the Conductor will support. Now shut up Conductor and get back to giving us winners. Skip.

Race 1: 1 Mile. Clm 5000n2y

#6 Tiz Speedy (8/1) – This gelding was no factor last time, but that was in the slop vs tougher. Now he drops in class and gets back to a fast dirt track. The last lime he faced similar competition under these circumstances, he won by 5 lengths. Now making his 2nd start for a new and improved barn, the Conductor is expecting a massive step forward.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. OC 40000n2y

#2 Atlantic Firestorm (15/1) – This gelding ran a solid closing 2nd in the slop last time after being on the bench for over a year. That race impressed the Conductor and Atlantic Firestorm should improve off that effort. He has some races to run back to in 2023 that make him a contender in here. He’ll be facing a very salty field with solid favorites, but he can inject value in the vertical wagers even if he doesn’t win. He should outrun his odds.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 24.3k

#1 Vdaytothetenacious (7/5) – The Conductor is still frustrated he gave out a short priced loser yesterday. Unacceptable. The Conductor believes this colt will redeem him and finish off your horizontal bets in the finale. He should leave this group in the dust. Gate to wire.

Mahoning Valley Wednesday Picks — January 15, 2025 | Best Bets & Analysis

A thoroughbred racehorse galloping at high speed during a horse race, showcasing athleticism and competitive spirit.

They canceled racing on us at Mahoning Valley Tuesday. Many people were saying that they were scared of the Conductor scooping their pools. Rightfully so, but their tactics didn’t work. The train stays in OH until every last spec of coal is mined. Let’s Ride at Iron Bets. Skip.

Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. F.S.Clm 5000

#1 Bay Magic (20/1) – This is a very weak group of state-bred claimers and this mare has upside at a big price. She enters this race off a lengthy layoff, but is working well for a new barn. Trainer Marco Ibarra is 22% with a +2.53 ROI this year with runners off 90+ day breaks, and is 31% 1st off the claim. This mare looks ready to fire her best shot and that makes her competitive in here. The Conductor sees her outrunning her odds.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. Clm 4000n1y

#10 Quantum Theory (8/5) – This gelding won’t be a big price, but the Conductor thinks he’s a favorite you can rely on in the horizontal wagers. He lays over this field and looks to get an ideal outside stalking trip.

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. F.Clm 15000

#3 Tiz Independence (8/1) – The Conductor doesn’t usually like horses cutting back from a mile all the way to 5 1/2 furlongs, but he’ll make an exception for this mare. She ran well vs tougher last time and was up close to a very quick pace for the distance. She’ll be finishing best in this race, the Conductor is just hoping that she won’t be too far back early. If she’s within striking distance as they turn for home, Tiz Wonderful is very dangerous today.

Mahoning Valley Tuesday Picks — January 14, 2025 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

A racehorse galloping towards the finish line with a jockey in pink attire during a sunset at a horse racing event.

2 for 5 Monday with 9/2 ad 8/5 winners is a good appetizer to start the week. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The train will spend Tuesday in Youngstown, Ohio and the Conductor will be mining for coal. Let’s Sign up at Iron Bets and ride together. Skip.

Race 4: 1m70yds. F.OC 25000n3x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Literary (8/1) – This mare has been facing much tougher in her last two races off a layoff. Her races vs similar competition at Indiana this summer make her a serious contender in here. Switching back to the dirt in her 3rd race off the bench, the Conductor sees her firing a top effort today.

Race 6: 1 Mile. Clm 7500n4L

#7 Money Room (6/1) – This gelding was bumped at the break last time and made a nice middle move before flattening. Now making his 3rd start off a layoff for top connections, the Conductor sees him firing his best effort. His A race would be good enough to put him in the winners’ circle.

#1 Devils Gotta Go (20/1) – The Conductor thinks this bomb is intriguing as well. He came back off the bench at Turfway last time and ran a decent figure on the synthetic. Now shipping to Mahoning and switching back to dirt, he picks up a high % rider in Angel Diaz. It is very interesting that Diaz hops aboard for a low % barn. The Devils Gotta outrun his odds 2nd off a layoff.

Race 7: 1 Mile. Clm 4000n2y

#1 Krug (6/1) – There isn’t much early speed in this race and the Conductor sees Krug repeating his last victory. They sent him to the front and he finished off his race nicely after controlling the pace. Gate to wire.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. Alw 25900n2L

#5 Main Line Cipher (8/5) – Nothing creative in the finale for the Conductor. This horse will be the heavy chalk, but the Conductor thinks he’s a cinch. You can lock up all your horizontal bets with Main Line Cipher in the finale.

Mahoning Valley Monday Picks — January 13, 2025 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

A thrilling horse racing scene featuring multiple horses and jockeys in colorful attire racing on a dirt track at Mahoning Valley.

Well, the Conductor’s coal supply is dwindling. The winter is in full swing and this is not the time to be draining resources. Let’s start the week off hot, and do so at Iron Bets for the most player friendly rewards in horse racing. Mohoning Valley also has player friendly 15% takeout on their pick 3/4/5’s. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 5000

#7 Team Hot Line (9/2) – This mare set a scorching pace in the slop last time going 1 mile. Now she gets back to a fast dirt track and cuts back in distance. She looks to get an ideal trip, and has many past performances that can beat this group. 3/1 or better is a square price.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.S.Clm 15000

#6 Go Girl (8/1) – This mare made a nice middle move into a quick pace over a sloppy track last time. The Conductor likes to see improving early pace figures as a sign of returning to form. She drops to the lowest level of competition she’s faced to date and looks primed to run her best. The favorites look weak in this race.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Clm 5000n3L

#7 Markhamian (4/1) – This horse has a major early pace edge over this group. He coughed up the lead in the slop last time, but he has done his best running on a fast dirt track. He gets back to fast dirt today and has past races that would obliterate this field. The Conductor will swing that that he takes them gate to wire at 3/1 or better.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. S.Alw 40900nc

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Henry Mac (6/1) – There is plenty of early speed in this race. The pace looks to set it up perfectly for this gelding. Henry Mac ran a strong closing 2nd cutting back in distance off the bench last time. Now 2nd off the layoff with more pace to run at, the Conductor sees him getting his picture taken. 4/1 or better would be a treat.

Race 7: 1 Mile. Clm 5000n1y

#3 Ubiquitous (4/1) – This gelding was favored dropping to this level for the first time last race. He ran 2nd closing into a slow pace in the mud, and now stretches out to a mile. He’s only had one try at this distance and it wasn’t good, but that was against much tougher. The Conductor doesn’t think the distance will be a problem. He has a class edge over this group and should be a square price.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 24.3k

#1 Mr. Frederickson (6/1) – This colt debuted vs much tougher at Turfway and didn’t stack up. Now he ships into Mahoning Valley adds Lasix and gets the blinkers off. This trainer has a +ROI on the year and is tremendous with 2nd time starters. With 26 2nd timers this year, Israel Acevedo is winning at a 31% clip with a +$0.90 ROI.