Tag: keeneland

It’s closing day at Keeneland. Nothing left to do but shovel as much coal as we can heading into the Breeders’ Cup. Let’s Ride.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

#1 Unmerited Favor (15/1) – This filly ran better than it looks in her debut after a terrible start. She was well back after veering in and made a nice move on the turn. McPeek runners are never fully cranked on debut and usually take a big step forward in their next start. Unmerited Favor showed the Conductor she has talent and he’ll bet he’s right double digit odds.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 120000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Beach Walkn (10/1) – This filly looks primed to run her best in her 3rd start off a layoff. She impressed the Conductor last time too. She was keen early wasting lots of energy and still managed to hold onto 3rd going longer. Now she cuts back in distance and gets a nice rail draw. Last October at Keeneland, she pulled off a 20/1 upset. Beach Walkn won’t sneak by the Conductor today.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) G3 Bryan Station Stakes

#9 Neat (8/1) – The Conductor will be hoping to see red saddle cloths in the winners circle today. This colt ran well with a wide trip last time and now draws to the inside. He should save ground and be exploding late. When he’s in a fight to the wire, he likes to have his nose in front. He’s never settled for 2nd in his career. Uno! Uno! Uno! Skip!

Only a 3rd with the bombs Thursday at Keeneland. There’s a little more meat on the bone today. Time to eat. Skip.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Mdn 100k

#4 Viable (6/1) – This filly took a nice step forward last time, closing strongly behind a slow pace. She’s been trying different distances and surfaces and finally put it all together. If she improves at all this start, the Conductor thinks she’ll be tough to beat. He’s betting against the heavy favorite, #6 Save Time (6/5), who has proven she doesn’t like to win.

Race 7: 1 1/8 Mile. OC 125000n2x

#3 Star of Wonder (7/5) – While the Conductor respects #2 Society Man (3/1), his deep closing running style doesn’t suit this race. Star of Wonder will be up close to a moderate pace and the Conductor doesn’t see anyone passing her down the stretch. Brad Cox will continue making a mockery of this Keeneland meet.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 140000b

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 All I Want Is You (10/1) – This filly won at 5/1 last time she ran this distance at Keeneland. She’s rounding back into form and her last race was better than it looks on paper. She closed strongly behind a slow pace and ran a big late pace figure. All I Want is You gets a nice rail draw today and she should have the pace to run at. She’ll be flying down the stretch and the Conductor will be screaming for her to get up in time. Let’s have a Thursday, passengers.

We left off Friday with a nice 8/1 gullet shot winner. The Conductor got a well deserved break this weekend and has come back refreshed and ready to fire. It’s the final week of the Keeneland meet, leave no stone unturned. Skip.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 32000

#7 Huge Bigly (12/1) – This gelding showed signs of rounding back into form last time. He ran a strong late pace figure while wide behind a slow pace. There will be plenty of early speed for him to run at today and he looks to get an ideal trip. Huge Bigly is 1/1 at Keeneland and his speed figures fit with this group. At double digit odds, he’ll be the Conductor’s key in the 4th race.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 One Front War (6/1) – This filly took money in her turf debut last time at Kentucky Downs. She had no shot from the 11 post that day, hung wide behind a slow pace. She ran better than it looks on paper and finished well down the stretch. Now drawn well and stretching out to a route for the first time, One Front War looks primed to explode. She’s bred to mow.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 140000b

#6 Mischievous Rogue (8/1) – This gelding won a stakes race convincingly at Hawthorne two back and failed as the favorite last time at Kentucky Downs. He didn’t have a fair chance last race, hung wide while Arrest Me Red set a slow pace and went gate to wire. This race will have a wicked early pace and Mischievous Rogue should get an ideal stalking trip. Over 4/1 would be fair for the Conductor.

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

The Pegasus World Cup is here and the Conductor is ready to fire. He hasn't liked a card at Gulfstream this much maybe ever. Don't listen to this if you haven't signed up at Iron Bets yet with this link. You're not allowed. Skip.

1. Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 14:19
2. Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/23/2024 07:22
3. Churchill and Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/16/2024 08:27

The Conductor is back at Keeneland after a travel day and is ready for battle. We had one bomb run 2nd Wednesday. Let’s not settle for silver today. Skip.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 140000b

#4 Stir Crazy (9/2) – Last time this filly faced allowance company, she won by open lengths at Churchill Downs. Her race last time vs stakes company was better than it looks too. She was way too far back early behind a slow pace. Now she drops in class and is drawn inside of the two favorites. The Conductor sees Stir Crazy getting a perfect trip and running her best in her second start off a break.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 120000n2x

#1 Golden Hostess (6/1) – This mare has been a solid stakes horse in South Africa and now makes her first start in the US for Graham Motion. Lucky for her, this is a very mediocre American bunch for this level. The US invaders have been running well on the Keeneland turf and Golden Hostess looks to get a great ground saving trip drawing the rail with Gaffalione aboard. She has the potential to beat them like a drum.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Devil’s Harvest (15/1) – The Conductor thinks today’s finale at Keeneland is wide open and multiple bombs have a shot. His favorite is this gelding with a major early pace edge. He’ll be all alone on the lead early and there aren’t any monsters in here trying to run him down late. The Conductor will take a swing that he gets brave on the front end and steals this race on the front end. Hopefully this devil harvests coal.

Week three of the Keeneland meet kicks off and the Conductor is ready to fire. Make sure you listen and subscribe to the daily podcast passengers. The Conductor discusses more horses than his best bets and there are some extra pieces of coal in there. Monday’s listeners who played the Santa Anita turf pick 3 were a happy bunch. Let’s Ride.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 20000n2L

#11 Valhalla Vixen (20/1) – This filly won impressively in her lone start sprinting on a fast dirt track. She ran a figure that is competitive with this group and her last two starts can be ignored. She’s run on the slop and turf and now finally returns to her best surface and distance. The Conductor will key Valhalla Vixen in the exacta at a nice juicy price.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 La Foret (15/1) – This filly didn’t run well on the dirt last time, but her two prior efforts sprinting on the turf were very solid. In her last turf race at Kentucky Downs, she was far back behind a slow pace and ran a huge late pace figure motoring down the stretch. She may not be able to get there in time to win today, but even if she picks up 2nd or 3rd the exacta and tri will pay nicely.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. MC 20000

#10 Rocket Night (6/1) – Dropping to this class level for the first time last race, this gelding ran a very good 2nd behind the favorite. He was in tight behind horses on the first turn and was forced to check sharply. He was still able to finish strong despite the rough beginning and showed the Conductor he has grit. Rocket Night should graduate today.

The Conductor’s gullet shot ran a good 3rd Thursday at 34/1. Hopefully, some of you passengers were able to cash that trifecta. Let’s turn some of those thirds into winners as we head into the weekend. Let’s Ride.

Race 4: 7 Furlongs. Clm 25000

#1 Lunar Module (4/1) – This gelding’s last two races on the turf and slop can be ignored. His prior two efforts on a fast dirt track were solid 2nds vs much tougher competition. Now dropping to a career low class level, the Conductor sees him getting his picture taken after this race.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Pensacola (12/1) – This gelding ran formidable numbers on dirt last year. He’s run poorly in his two starts in 2024 and now switches to turf off a bit of a break. He’s bred for the turf and had no shot in his previous try on the lawn. Trainer William Cowans is 4/12 with a +$1.60 ROI switching horses from dirt to turf this year. The Conductor sees the surface switch waking up Pensacola, and the gelding firing a top effort today. His A race makes him a contender vs this group.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. F.MC 50000

#3 Effervescent (8/1) – This filly was impressive in her debut last time. She broke slow, made a wicked early move and sustained her run for 3rd. She should have won that race and will be even better after gaining race experience. Making her 2nd career start today, Effervescent is the one to beat.

Keeneland delivered chalk and a 33/1 shot the Conductor didn’t have at Wednesday. That’s not what the the Conductor ordered. We need coal. Skip.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 140000b

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Harlan Estate (15/1) – This gelding had no chance last time with a terrible trip at Kentucky downs. Two back at Saratoga, he ran a huge race at 21/1. He made a big 3/4wide uncovered move on the turn and sustained his finish for 2nd. Harlan Estate has won at big odds before and certainly fits with this group, With a rider upgrade and a good post today, he’ll be the key to the Conductor’s day.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. OC 125000n2x

#1 Baxley (20/1) – #2 World Record (6/5) likely wins this race at a short price, but a 2/1 exacta will still pay. Baxley is steadily improving for a top barn and the Conductor likes his late pace figures in a race loaded with speed. Many of the other contenders in here are speed horses who will be chasing World Record and fading late. The Conductor sees Baxley hugging the Keeneland golden rail and passing his other rivals in the stretch.

Week 1 is in the books at Keeneland and we don’t have any coal to show for it. Time to change that today. Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Runaway Kitten (15/1) – This filly moved into the John Ortiz barn last time and ran better than it looks sprinting with a poor trip. She was bumped and checked hard at the break and then ran evenly behind a slow pace. Now she stretches out to a route for the first time against a very weak group on paper. Santana will use her early speed to give her a good trip, and Conductor is salivating at her price. This filly is live.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. Mdn 100k

#7 Freaky (8/1) – This colt was working bullets entering his debut at Saratoga. He broke slow that day and the Conductor will ignore that effort. It was too bad to be believed and the Conductor think Freaky has talent. This is a weak field with a vulnerable favorite in #8 Kinetic Control (8/5). The Conductor is looking for a horse with upside.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 110000n1x

#10 El Rey Rey (30/1) – #1 Green Light (5/2) is clearly the horse to beat in this field. However, after him this race is wide open. El Rey Rey has run some solid races routing in California and got a nice prep sprinting for the new barn last time. Stretching back out in distance, the Conductor sees this colt running a career best effort in his 2nd start for Eric Foster.