Tag: keeneland

We left off Friday with a nice 8/1 gullet shot winner. The Conductor got a well deserved break this weekend and has come back refreshed and ready to fire. It’s the final week of the Keeneland meet, leave no stone unturned. Skip.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 32000

#7 Huge Bigly (12/1) – This gelding showed signs of rounding back into form last time. He ran a strong late pace figure while wide behind a slow pace. There will be plenty of early speed for him to run at today and he looks to get an ideal trip. Huge Bigly is 1/1 at Keeneland and his speed figures fit with this group. At double digit odds, he’ll be the Conductor’s key in the 4th race.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 One Front War (6/1) – This filly took money in her turf debut last time at Kentucky Downs. She had no shot from the 11 post that day, hung wide behind a slow pace. She ran better than it looks on paper and finished well down the stretch. Now drawn well and stretching out to a route for the first time, One Front War looks primed to explode. She’s bred to mow.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 140000b

#6 Mischievous Rogue (8/1) – This gelding won a stakes race convincingly at Hawthorne two back and failed as the favorite last time at Kentucky Downs. He didn’t have a fair chance last race, hung wide while Arrest Me Red set a slow pace and went gate to wire. This race will have a wicked early pace and Mischievous Rogue should get an ideal stalking trip. Over 4/1 would be fair for the Conductor.

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

The Pegasus World Cup is here and the Conductor is ready to fire. He hasn't liked a card at Gulfstream this much maybe ever. Don't listen to this if you haven't signed up at Iron Bets yet with this link. You're not allowed. Skip.

1. Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 14:19
2. Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/23/2024 07:22
3. Churchill and Del Mar Preview for Saturday 11/16/2024 08:27

The Conductor is back at Keeneland after a travel day and is ready for battle. We had one bomb run 2nd Wednesday. Let’s not settle for silver today. Skip.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 140000b

#4 Stir Crazy (9/2) – Last time this filly faced allowance company, she won by open lengths at Churchill Downs. Her race last time vs stakes company was better than it looks too. She was way too far back early behind a slow pace. Now she drops in class and is drawn inside of the two favorites. The Conductor sees Stir Crazy getting a perfect trip and running her best in her second start off a break.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 120000n2x

#1 Golden Hostess (6/1) – This mare has been a solid stakes horse in South Africa and now makes her first start in the US for Graham Motion. Lucky for her, this is a very mediocre American bunch for this level. The US invaders have been running well on the Keeneland turf and Golden Hostess looks to get a great ground saving trip drawing the rail with Gaffalione aboard. She has the potential to beat them like a drum.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Devil’s Harvest (15/1) – The Conductor thinks today’s finale at Keeneland is wide open and multiple bombs have a shot. His favorite is this gelding with a major early pace edge. He’ll be all alone on the lead early and there aren’t any monsters in here trying to run him down late. The Conductor will take a swing that he gets brave on the front end and steals this race on the front end. Hopefully this devil harvests coal.

Week three of the Keeneland meet kicks off and the Conductor is ready to fire. Make sure you listen and subscribe to the daily podcast passengers. The Conductor discusses more horses than his best bets and there are some extra pieces of coal in there. Monday’s listeners who played the Santa Anita turf pick 3 were a happy bunch. Let’s Ride.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.Clm 20000n2L

#11 Valhalla Vixen (20/1) – This filly won impressively in her lone start sprinting on a fast dirt track. She ran a figure that is competitive with this group and her last two starts can be ignored. She’s run on the slop and turf and now finally returns to her best surface and distance. The Conductor will key Valhalla Vixen in the exacta at a nice juicy price.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 La Foret (15/1) – This filly didn’t run well on the dirt last time, but her two prior efforts sprinting on the turf were very solid. In her last turf race at Kentucky Downs, she was far back behind a slow pace and ran a huge late pace figure motoring down the stretch. She may not be able to get there in time to win today, but even if she picks up 2nd or 3rd the exacta and tri will pay nicely.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. MC 20000

#10 Rocket Night (6/1) – Dropping to this class level for the first time last race, this gelding ran a very good 2nd behind the favorite. He was in tight behind horses on the first turn and was forced to check sharply. He was still able to finish strong despite the rough beginning and showed the Conductor he has grit. Rocket Night should graduate today.

The Conductor’s gullet shot ran a good 3rd Thursday at 34/1. Hopefully, some of you passengers were able to cash that trifecta. Let’s turn some of those thirds into winners as we head into the weekend. Let’s Ride.

Race 4: 7 Furlongs. Clm 25000

#1 Lunar Module (4/1) – This gelding’s last two races on the turf and slop can be ignored. His prior two efforts on a fast dirt track were solid 2nds vs much tougher competition. Now dropping to a career low class level, the Conductor sees him getting his picture taken after this race.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Pensacola (12/1) – This gelding ran formidable numbers on dirt last year. He’s run poorly in his two starts in 2024 and now switches to turf off a bit of a break. He’s bred for the turf and had no shot in his previous try on the lawn. Trainer William Cowans is 4/12 with a +$1.60 ROI switching horses from dirt to turf this year. The Conductor sees the surface switch waking up Pensacola, and the gelding firing a top effort today. His A race makes him a contender vs this group.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. F.MC 50000

#3 Effervescent (8/1) – This filly was impressive in her debut last time. She broke slow, made a wicked early move and sustained her run for 3rd. She should have won that race and will be even better after gaining race experience. Making her 2nd career start today, Effervescent is the one to beat.

Keeneland delivered chalk and a 33/1 shot the Conductor didn’t have at Wednesday. That’s not what the the Conductor ordered. We need coal. Skip.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 140000b

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Harlan Estate (15/1) – This gelding had no chance last time with a terrible trip at Kentucky downs. Two back at Saratoga, he ran a huge race at 21/1. He made a big 3/4wide uncovered move on the turn and sustained his finish for 2nd. Harlan Estate has won at big odds before and certainly fits with this group, With a rider upgrade and a good post today, he’ll be the key to the Conductor’s day.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. OC 125000n2x

#1 Baxley (20/1) – #2 World Record (6/5) likely wins this race at a short price, but a 2/1 exacta will still pay. Baxley is steadily improving for a top barn and the Conductor likes his late pace figures in a race loaded with speed. Many of the other contenders in here are speed horses who will be chasing World Record and fading late. The Conductor sees Baxley hugging the Keeneland golden rail and passing his other rivals in the stretch.

Week 1 is in the books at Keeneland and we don’t have any coal to show for it. Time to change that today. Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Runaway Kitten (15/1) – This filly moved into the John Ortiz barn last time and ran better than it looks sprinting with a poor trip. She was bumped and checked hard at the break and then ran evenly behind a slow pace. Now she stretches out to a route for the first time against a very weak group on paper. Santana will use her early speed to give her a good trip, and Conductor is salivating at her price. This filly is live.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. Mdn 100k

#7 Freaky (8/1) – This colt was working bullets entering his debut at Saratoga. He broke slow that day and the Conductor will ignore that effort. It was too bad to be believed and the Conductor think Freaky has talent. This is a weak field with a vulnerable favorite in #8 Kinetic Control (8/5). The Conductor is looking for a horse with upside.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 110000n1x

#10 El Rey Rey (30/1) – #1 Green Light (5/2) is clearly the horse to beat in this field. However, after him this race is wide open. El Rey Rey has run some solid races routing in California and got a nice prep sprinting for the new barn last time. Stretching back out in distance, the Conductor sees this colt running a career best effort in his 2nd start for Eric Foster.

Frustrating Saturday for the Conductor at Keeneland. Coal supply is dwindling. We don’t want a big day, we need one. Skip.

Race 3: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

#2 One Happy Island (20/1) – This filly ran well in her turf debut sprinting last time with a poor trip. She was forced to check and still finished strong behind a slow pace. Now with a nice inside draw, she has major upside stretching out to a route for the first time. This race is wide open and One Happy Island is bred to improve going long on the lawn. She can light up the tote.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 130000b

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Hedwig (8/1) – This gelding had obvious trouble last time, unable to find room to run in the stretch. He was well bet in that G1 and is the only horse in this field that has proven he can sit off the pace and finish. This race is loaded with early pace and Hedwig should sit a perfect stalking trip. As long as Saez can find him a seam this time, he’s going to save the Conductor’s weekend.

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes

#1 Idiomatic (3/5) – Unfortunately, nothing creative for the Conductor here. This mare lost at short price last time, but that was still one of her best races to date. She pressed a scorching pace and was just nailed at the wire. There isn’t much speed in this race and the Conductor can’t envision a scenario where she loses. Take the free square.

Not a great start Friday for the Conductor at Keeneland. However, make sure you listen to the podcast where the Conductor discusses additional races and contenders. There were some golden nuggets in there yesterday. We have quite the Saturday of racing ahead of us today. Quality racing from coast to coast. God Bless America. Skip.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.G2 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes

#7 Brightwork (2/1) – This filly was highly touted at Saratoga for the way she was working in the mornings. She didn’t disappoint in her return to the races there, finishing off a Phillip Bauer rocket in the stretch. Now making her 2nd start as a 3-year-old, the Conductor sees her dominating this field. She’s undefeated sprinting and a very talented filly.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.G1 First Lady Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Special Wan (20/1) – This is a great betting race, where you can make a case for many contenders. One thing is for certain, this race will have a wicked early pace. There are too many speed horses in here for one of the classy closers not to get the job done. The price the Conductor likes best is this European invader. She made her first start in the US last time and won nicely after a slow break, closing strongly behind a moderate pace. She’s yet to miss the board in her career and the Conductor doesn’t think the Chad Brown crop of Americans are anything special. Let’s get this bomb home in the First Lady.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) Turf Mile Stakes

#3 More Than Looks (3/1) – The Conductor was impressed with this colt’s comeback effort off the bench last time. He was rank early and fought the rider the entire way leading into the first turn. Despite expending all that wasted energy early, he sill rallied for 2nd behind a slow pace. Now making his 2nd start as a 4-year-old, he looks primed to run his best. With a nice inside draw, More Than Looks should get an ideal trip here.

Happy opening day at Keeneland passengers. Hope everyone brought their shovels. No bourbon allowed until the caboose is overflowing with coal. Skip.

Race 3: 7 Furlongs. F.Mdn 100k

#11 Upon a Star (9/5) – This filly will be the first of potentially many winners for Brad Cox today. She ran faster than the rest of these back in February without an ideal trip. She’s been working bullets leading up to this race and is older and stronger now. The Conductor sees her beating this group like a drum.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 Jessamine Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Shezafunkydrummer (8/1) – First time turf last time, this filly was game after a poor start. She pressed a quick pace and galloped out in front of her rival after she did not like being passed in the stretch. Trainer Larry Revelli is 32% on the year with runners 2nd off a layoff and Shezafunkydrummer gets a nice inside draw today. She has already proven that she can win on the dirt sitting off the pace and she looks to get a perfect pocket trip here. She’ll be the key to the Conductor’s Friday.

Race 10: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 130000b

#11 Amidst Waves (12/1) – Off a little bit of a break last time, this filly had a terrible trip in a Grade 2 race at Kentucky Downs. She was wide behind a slow pace and didn’t have any chance. She finally takes a class drop today, after facing stakes company ever since her maiden score. Amidst Waves is stakes placed over this Keeneland turf course and gets a top rider today with Prat aboard. The Weaver barn is starting to heat up a bit after an ice-cold Saratoga meet.

#4 Tambo (6/1) – This filly has shown ability sprinting on the dirt in California. Now she switches to turf, after moving into the Deveaux barn. Deveaux is 26% on the year with a plus $3.23 ROI with runners for the first time. Tambo’s breeding doesn’t scream turf, but she ran well in her one turf stakes race at Del Mar. She pressed a hot pace and going a mile and didn’t quit. She has upside on the turf for top connections vs an average field.