Tag: keeneland

Alright passengers, we’re back after a month break. The Conductor was done with Gulfstream and waiting for some real turf racing to start. Then the rain came to Lexington and took his races off the lawn. However, spring has sprung and we finally have a beautiful Saturday at Keeneland. The opportunities are bountiful. Aim small, miss small, but really never miss at all. Skip.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 100000n3x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Hayes Strike (8/1) – This colt ran some solid races last year and showed signs of rounding into form last time. He closed for a solid 2nd behind a slow pace and should be ready to run his best making his 3rd start off the bench today. While the Keeneland dirt has been extremely speed favoring in sprints, routes have played fairly for closers. Hayes Strike has by far the best late pace figures in the field and should get a good setup with lots of speed horses in here. He’s the Conductor’s best bet of the day if he’s north of 6/1.

Race 9: 1 1/16  Mile. (Turf) F.G1 Jenny Wiley Stakes

#7 Surge Capacity (5/1) – This filly has shown freaky talent in her last two starts. In both, Rosario has been stuck on the rail in deep stretch she’s still mowed home after losing momentum. You don’t see very many fillies with a turn of foot like hers. She’s more than a square price at 5/1 and has the most upside in the field. The Appleby shipper and Rosario in the irons are the only two factors that could beat her today.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. G3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes

#2 The Wine Steward (5/2) – This would usually be a spot where the Conductor would be playing against a short price. He’s an NY bred making his first start as a 3-year-old off a long break. However, there aren’t any likeable alternatives. The Wine Steward should get a beautiful trip pressing a slow pace and lays over this field on numbers. The Conductor trusts Maker will have him ready.

Woof. A terrible 0/3 is not what the Ductor ordered Friday at Keeneland. With the Breeders’ Cup only a week away, we need more coal fast. Must win Saturday. Skip.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. Bowman Mill Stakes

#5 Patriot Spirit (8/1) – This colt had no chance vs tougher last time setting a scorching pace going 1 mile. He showed he can stalk and win in his debut and that’s exactly what he’ll do here. Prat will have him sitting just off the dueling speed, then pounce entering the stretch. Patriot Spirit looks ready to roll cutting back to a sprint today at Keeneland and anything over 4/1 is good enough for the Ductor.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) G3 Bryan Station Stakes

#1 Talk of the Nation (5/2) – This race looks chalky to the Conductor, but he prefers the the 2nd choice on the morning line over the favorite, #9 More Than Looks (9/5). While More than Looks beat Talk of the Nation two starts back, the Ductor would argue Talk of the Nation ran better that day. He was dueling around the entire track and was a game 2nd. With a better post and tactical advantage today, The Conductor sees Talk of the Nation turning the tables.

Race 9: 1 Mile. G2 Hagyard Fayette Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Happy American (15/1) – This is a very weak Grade 2 at Keeneland and no result would surprise the Conductor. The Ductor is looking for a bomb and he’s confident this gelding will run well. He continues to hit the board at big prices, running huge late pace figures closing behind slow paces. Unfortunately, the pace looks a lot slower after scratches, but he’ll still get a nice ground saving trip. 2nd off the layoff today,  Happy American looks primed to run a top effort and that can put him in the winners circle at a big price. At the very least he’ll spice up the trifecta.

Romagna Mia was bet down to 2/1, but was an easy winner Sunday. Although their were some juicy carryovers at Keeneland this week, the ponies weren’t popping out to Mr. Ductor. You wouldn’t want him giving out picks that he wasn’t betting like most of the internet would you? There re plenty of prices he likes today. Skip.

Race 6: 1 3/8 Mile. (T) F.Alw 110000n1x

#7 Red Hot and Blue (15/1) – This race looks wide open with the favorites looking to rebound off poor efforts. This mare has found it difficult to stay on the racetrack, but has shown ability going long on the turf. Her maiden breaker last time off the bench impressed the Conductor. She was far back behind a tepid pace and showed a strong late kick. Now 2nd off the layoff, Johnny V takes the mount for Toner as she steps up in class at Keeneland. Many of the other contenders in here will be fighting hard to get the distance, while she’ll be finishing well. Even if Red Hot and Blue isn’t good enough to win, she can hit the board at a big number.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) F. G3 Valley View Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Secret Money (5/1) – This filly continues to steadily progress and won with style last time. She ran a huge late pace figure that day, closing behind a slow pace. She coughed up the lead two starts back going this mile distance, but that was over a yielding turf course. The uneducated passengers will see that race and bet Surge Capacity (3/1). Us smarter passengers will happily back Secret Money here at a much better price.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

#9 Lauriston (8/1) – For difficult maiden races like these, we really need to lean on Mr. Ductor’s expertise. His eyes are drawn to this first time starter. Trainer Brendan Walsh is 11% with a +$0.02 ROI with 1st time turfers, so he is capable of getting a filly like this home. Her breeding screams she’s a mower and she has a sneaky strong work tab at Turfway Park. The Conductor would be surprised if Lauriston doesn’t fire a big effort in her debut.

0/2 with a scratch Saturday at Keeneland is not what the Ductor ordered. Well, at least that’s why god made Sunday. To bail yourself out before Monday comes. Skip.

Race 7: 1½ Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Rood and Riddle Dowager Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Romagna Mia (6/1) – The Conductor will lean on the “other” Motion horse today in the feature. This filly has a class edge over this group and ran well last time vs tougher. That race was her first start in the US and she had no chance to win behind he odds on favorite, who was setting a slow pace on the lead. She still finished well for 3rd and ran a strong late pace figure. She should move forward off that effort and there aren’t any monsters in this field. Romagna Mia will be the key to the Ductor’s day.

Race 9: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

#1 Proud Mary (10/1) – Two prices intrigue the Conductor in today’s finale at Keeneland. The first is this proud filly who draws the rail. She was dominant in her first turf start at this distance two races back and had a no chance trip last time. In that last start she was chasing a quick pace while wide and rightfully had no kick in the stretch. The Conductor likes her cutting back in distance and returning to a typical turf American course.

#7 Jennifer My Love (12/1) – This filly showed improved speed last time, breaking her maiden at Kentucky Downs. She set a quick pace for 7 furlongs and was game to fend them all off down the lane. She should get an ideal trip here shortening to 5 1/2 furlongs. She’ll sir just off the early speed and have the stamina to finish down the stretch. The Conductor’s only concern with her is Rosario in the irons. He tends to take stalkers to the back of the pack and ask them to pass them all. This filly needs to be forwardly placed today.

The Conductor apologizes for not posting since last Thursday. Travel by air kept him away from the rail last weekend. It’s been tough getting back in the swing of things since leaving New York. Who can blame him after looking at tomorrow’s card? In only a four week meet, with perfect weather, why the hell is Keeneland running only one turf race today? Disgusting. 2/2 is better than nothing I suppose. Skip.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Clm 80000n2L

#2 Mustang Lady (8/1) – This filly’s form is extremely dirtied up. Her last four races have been sub par on either turf or the slop. However, the fastest two races of her career have been her lone two starts over this fast Keeneland dirt track. Despite missing the board in those two races, she was facing miles tougher than this group. The Conductor thinks this mustang is a dirt horse, and she can pop getting back to the surface she likes best. She has upside at a price vs a very weak allowance field.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Empirical View (6/1) – Shocker that the lone turf race is by far the best betting race on the card. This filly upset the field at 15/1 switching to turf last time. She’s bred to be a turf horse and that race was no joke. She ran a strong late pace figure rallying behind a moderate pace. Emprical View draws the inside post today and looks to get a beautiful ground saving trip. 5/1 or better is good enough for Mr. Ductor to fire.

The train finally slowed down Wednesday at Keeneland. 0/2 with a scratch isn’t what we’ve been accustomed to after last weekend. The weather looks poor this weekend too in Lexington, so we have to hit the track where it hurts before then. Time to put the throttle back down. Skip.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 100k

#10 Mill Street (6/1) – This colt broke slow on debut and finished strongly behind a slow pace. He galloped out with the winner and ran a strong late pace figure. He should step forward off that effort for the Stidham barn, and Rosario taking the mount is a positive sign. He seems to be riding better so far at Keeneland than he has all year in New York.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 125000n2x

#2 Magical Lute (10/1) – This race is loaded with early speed and the Conductor finds this closer intriguing. Off a poor effort last time she’ll be a massive overlay and her races at Ellis Park this year make her competitive with this group. She’s 1/1 over this Keeneland dirt course and the Mr. Ductor can smell a big effort here. At 6 furlongs it will be tough for her to pass them all, but the Conductor guarantees she hits the board at a big number. If she does get up in time, we’ll need the passengers help loading all of the excess coal.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 50000

#7 Shesasmalltowngirl (9/2) – This filly dropped to the claiming ranks for the first time last race on turf and ran well pressing the pace. The Conductor thinks she’s better on dirt and she has an early pace edge over this field. In a weak maiden claiming race on dirt, the Conductor will bet they wont catch her in the stretch.

Chooooo Chooooo!!!! The train continues to roll at Keeneland. Mammas Girl was a late scratch Saturday, but Gina Romantica got up at 11/1 and the Wine Steward ran a hard fought 2nd. The Conductor can’t believe he gives this shit out for free. You lucky, lucky passengers. Sunday’s card stunk, so the Ductor showed tremendous strength and discipline passing. Five day racing week starts tomorrow. Skip

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) F. Maiden 100k

#1 I’m a Mess (8/1) –  This is a wide open maiden turf race and this filly ran a sneaky good debut last time. She made a decent middle into a hot pace and rightfully tired late. Now 2nd off the layoff she gets a nice rail draw and will be fit with that race under her belt. McPeek is 7/22 with a +$1.21 ROI with 2nd time turf starters this year too.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

#11 Star Fortress (12/1) – The Conductor scoured this race and found no value in any of the Americans. This filly has been running well vs tougher across the pond and has been working well at Keeneland for over a month. She gets Lasix for the first time and the Cherie DeVaux barn has looked like Chad Brown’s this year. Despite a poor post, Star Fortress has major upside vs this weak allowance field.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) F. Maiden 100k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Auraculous (9/2) – The Conductor will be trusting DeVaux again in the finale. This filly took a big step forward last time switching to the turf. She showed a strong late kick down a tiring Kentucky Downs stretch and looks setup perfectly for a monster effort today. 9/2 would be a gift from the high heavens, but 3/1 or better will do.

The Conductor last spoke to us on Travers day, where he gave out the 36/1 cold exacta in the feature. Unfortunately, another breakdown in the stretch that day made him walk away with a bad taste in his mouth. If another Saratoga meet goes like that, he may step away for good. NYRA has a lot of cleaning up to do and the Conductor is taking the train elsewhere for now. Santa Anita’s product seems to be improving and these Keeneland fields have Mr. Ductor salivating. Let’s get back on the rails and buy Skip a horse farm in Lexington. Skip.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 130000C

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Bling (6/1) – This filly completely missed the break last time at Kentucky Downs and still rallied down the stretch for a strong 3rd behind a slow pace. She shortens in distance today and has the strongest late kick in the field. She’s 1 for 1 at 5 1/2 furlongs and has run well vs tougher routing. There is plenty of early speed in here to set her up for a great trip. She gets a major rider upgrade to Velazquez to boot.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. Phoenix – G2 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes

#1 Hoist the Gold (8/1) – This race looks wide open on paper and this colt has a major class edge over this field. He’s faced much tougher while being stuck on a dead rail in his last two starts at Del Mar. The rail is almost always the place to be at Keeneland and he’s been working bullets since shipping to Kentucky. He’s run well in his two prior starts at Keeneland and has every chance to win this stakes today at a square price.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 120000n2x

#1 Johny’s Fireball (8/1) – Norm Casse has rightfully returned this gelding to the turf, where he’s run well in his last two starts. He had a troubled trip last time and won nicely at this distance two starts back. He’ll get a nice ground saving trip today at Keeneland, and he gets a major turf rider upgrade to Saez. He can bail out the passengers in the finale.