Tag: keeneland

0/2 with a scratch Saturday at Keeneland is not what the Ductor ordered. Well, at least that’s why god made Sunday. To bail yourself out before Monday comes. Skip.

Race 7: 1½ Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Rood and Riddle Dowager Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Romagna Mia (6/1) – The Conductor will lean on the “other” Motion horse today in the feature. This filly has a class edge over this group and ran well last time vs tougher. That race was her first start in the US and she had no chance to win behind he odds on favorite, who was setting a slow pace on the lead. She still finished well for 3rd and ran a strong late pace figure. She should move forward off that effort and there aren’t any monsters in this field. Romagna Mia will be the key to the Ductor’s day.

Race 9: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

#1 Proud Mary (10/1) – Two prices intrigue the Conductor in today’s finale at Keeneland. The first is this proud filly who draws the rail. She was dominant in her first turf start at this distance two races back and had a no chance trip last time. In that last start she was chasing a quick pace while wide and rightfully had no kick in the stretch. The Conductor likes her cutting back in distance and returning to a typical turf American course.

#7 Jennifer My Love (12/1) – This filly showed improved speed last time, breaking her maiden at Kentucky Downs. She set a quick pace for 7 furlongs and was game to fend them all off down the lane. She should get an ideal trip here shortening to 5 1/2 furlongs. She’ll sir just off the early speed and have the stamina to finish down the stretch. The Conductor’s only concern with her is Rosario in the irons. He tends to take stalkers to the back of the pack and ask them to pass them all. This filly needs to be forwardly placed today.

The Conductor apologizes for not posting since last Thursday. Travel by air kept him away from the rail last weekend. It’s been tough getting back in the swing of things since leaving New York. Who can blame him after looking at tomorrow’s card? In only a four week meet, with perfect weather, why the hell is Keeneland running only one turf race today? Disgusting. 2/2 is better than nothing I suppose. Skip.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Clm 80000n2L

#2 Mustang Lady (8/1) – This filly’s form is extremely dirtied up. Her last four races have been sub par on either turf or the slop. However, the fastest two races of her career have been her lone two starts over this fast Keeneland dirt track. Despite missing the board in those two races, she was facing miles tougher than this group. The Conductor thinks this mustang is a dirt horse, and she can pop getting back to the surface she likes best. She has upside at a price vs a very weak allowance field.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Empirical View (6/1) – Shocker that the lone turf race is by far the best betting race on the card. This filly upset the field at 15/1 switching to turf last time. She’s bred to be a turf horse and that race was no joke. She ran a strong late pace figure rallying behind a moderate pace. Emprical View draws the inside post today and looks to get a beautiful ground saving trip. 5/1 or better is good enough for Mr. Ductor to fire.

The train finally slowed down Wednesday at Keeneland. 0/2 with a scratch isn’t what we’ve been accustomed to after last weekend. The weather looks poor this weekend too in Lexington, so we have to hit the track where it hurts before then. Time to put the throttle back down. Skip.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 100k

#10 Mill Street (6/1) – This colt broke slow on debut and finished strongly behind a slow pace. He galloped out with the winner and ran a strong late pace figure. He should step forward off that effort for the Stidham barn, and Rosario taking the mount is a positive sign. He seems to be riding better so far at Keeneland than he has all year in New York.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 125000n2x

#2 Magical Lute (10/1) – This race is loaded with early speed and the Conductor finds this closer intriguing. Off a poor effort last time she’ll be a massive overlay and her races at Ellis Park this year make her competitive with this group. She’s 1/1 over this Keeneland dirt course and the Mr. Ductor can smell a big effort here. At 6 furlongs it will be tough for her to pass them all, but the Conductor guarantees she hits the board at a big number. If she does get up in time, we’ll need the passengers help loading all of the excess coal.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 50000

#7 Shesasmalltowngirl (9/2) – This filly dropped to the claiming ranks for the first time last race on turf and ran well pressing the pace. The Conductor thinks she’s better on dirt and she has an early pace edge over this field. In a weak maiden claiming race on dirt, the Conductor will bet they wont catch her in the stretch.

Chooooo Chooooo!!!! The train continues to roll at Keeneland. Mammas Girl was a late scratch Saturday, but Gina Romantica got up at 11/1 and the Wine Steward ran a hard fought 2nd. The Conductor can’t believe he gives this shit out for free. You lucky, lucky passengers. Sunday’s card stunk, so the Ductor showed tremendous strength and discipline passing. Five day racing week starts tomorrow. Skip

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) F. Maiden 100k

#1 I’m a Mess (8/1) –  This is a wide open maiden turf race and this filly ran a sneaky good debut last time. She made a decent middle into a hot pace and rightfully tired late. Now 2nd off the layoff she gets a nice rail draw and will be fit with that race under her belt. McPeek is 7/22 with a +$1.21 ROI with 2nd time turf starters this year too.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

#11 Star Fortress (12/1) – The Conductor scoured this race and found no value in any of the Americans. This filly has been running well vs tougher across the pond and has been working well at Keeneland for over a month. She gets Lasix for the first time and the Cherie DeVaux barn has looked like Chad Brown’s this year. Despite a poor post, Star Fortress has major upside vs this weak allowance field.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) F. Maiden 100k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Auraculous (9/2) – The Conductor will be trusting DeVaux again in the finale. This filly took a big step forward last time switching to the turf. She showed a strong late kick down a tiring Kentucky Downs stretch and looks setup perfectly for a monster effort today. 9/2 would be a gift from the high heavens, but 3/1 or better will do.

The Conductor last spoke to us on Travers day, where he gave out the 36/1 cold exacta in the feature. Unfortunately, another breakdown in the stretch that day made him walk away with a bad taste in his mouth. If another Saratoga meet goes like that, he may step away for good. NYRA has a lot of cleaning up to do and the Conductor is taking the train elsewhere for now. Santa Anita’s product seems to be improving and these Keeneland fields have Mr. Ductor salivating. Let’s get back on the rails and buy Skip a horse farm in Lexington. Skip.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 130000C

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Bling (6/1) – This filly completely missed the break last time at Kentucky Downs and still rallied down the stretch for a strong 3rd behind a slow pace. She shortens in distance today and has the strongest late kick in the field. She’s 1 for 1 at 5 1/2 furlongs and has run well vs tougher routing. There is plenty of early speed in here to set her up for a great trip. She gets a major rider upgrade to Velazquez to boot.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. Phoenix – G2 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes

#1 Hoist the Gold (8/1) – This race looks wide open on paper and this colt has a major class edge over this field. He’s faced much tougher while being stuck on a dead rail in his last two starts at Del Mar. The rail is almost always the place to be at Keeneland and he’s been working bullets since shipping to Kentucky. He’s run well in his two prior starts at Keeneland and has every chance to win this stakes today at a square price.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 120000n2x

#1 Johny’s Fireball (8/1) – Norm Casse has rightfully returned this gelding to the turf, where he’s run well in his last two starts. He had a troubled trip last time and won nicely at this distance two starts back. He’ll get a nice ground saving trip today at Keeneland, and he gets a major turf rider upgrade to Saez. He can bail out the passengers in the finale.

Bang, Monjid stealing it at 19/1 Thursday was the bomb we needed. Thank you Mr. Conductor! However, there is no time to rest on your laurels. Closing day at Keeneland with a pick 6 carryover to end the meet? That’s how scores are made, time to go to work. Skip.

Race 6: 1 3/8 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

#9 Pure Country (6/1) – This filly was rank early off the bench last time and Rosario had to check her multiple times early. She still looked loaded as the turned for home, but couldn’t catch the two in front of her who had much better trips. The Conductor would argue that she ran better than the favorite in here, #8 Sahlabiya (5/2), that day and has more upside. The post and rider are his only concern.

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. Mdn 100k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Loyal Company (8/1) – He broke slow in his debut at Turfway and was fanned miles wide as he tried to circle the field. He finished best despite a poor trip behind an inside speed flow. Loyal company even galloped out past the winner shortly after the wire. He should break better today in his 2nd career start and he gets a rider upgrade to Gaffalione. If the Conductor is going to hit the Keeneland pick 6, then this colt will have to win.

Race 8: 1½ Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Bewitch Stakes

#4 War Like Goddess (4/5) – If you can beat this classy mare, there is no telling how much this pick 6 will pay. The Conductor tips his cap to you if you try, but he’s taking the free square.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 110000n1x

#7 Dunedin (5/1) – This colt ran a solid 3rd off the bench last time vs stakes company. He was hung 3wide going into the first turn and still ran well. Now facing weaker in his 2nd start of the year, he’ll be tough to beat with a step forward.

0-2 with a 10/1 3rd and a scratch Wednesday at Keeneland was not what the Ductor ordered. We need to make a score to end this meet and time is running out. Cap hard Mr. Conductor and cap strong, us passengers need you. Skip.

Race 5: 1½ Mile. (Turf) Alw 120000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Kitten Mischief  (12/1) – This gelding is working well at Keeneland and has shown ability on both turf and dirt. He won at this distance last time and runs strong late pace figures every time. Most importantly, he’s the only runner in this field who has a race over this turf course. You could argue that race at Keeneland was his best to date, making up significant ground in the stretch behind a tepid pace. He has three solid works leading into today and he looks to get a beautiful ground saving trip. Kitten Mischief is a massive overlay if he is in fact double digit odds.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

#10 Miss Peabody (20/1) – Dropping in class, getting Lasix back on and switching back to turf, the Conductor likes this filly’s upside. Her lone turf route was also over this Keeneland turf course where she closed well into a slow pace and finished behind two next out winners. She’ll be flying late and will be a big number. The post position is less of a concern for the Conductor with her closing running style.

Race 9: 1 3/8 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 100k

#3 Monjid (15/1) – This is very eerie, the Conductor’s left knee is twitching. These three Keeneland turf races have one runner each proven over this unique turf course and the Conductor is keying all three. This gelding adds blinkers and stretches out in distance today. His best race came going his furthest here, where he ran 2nd at 13/1. He has as good a chance as any in this wide open race.

Two 2nds in the final strides Sunday made the Conductor a very angry man. He’s had tougher beats and is now ready for this week. Only three days left of the Keeneland meet. Smell it, taste it, savor it, then murder it. Skip.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Policy Option (8/1) – This race will have a quick early pace and this gelding always comes running late. He had absolutely no chance last time at Keeneland where they crawled up front. All three of his wins have come at this distance and the Conductor guarantees he hits the board for those passengers looking for a trifecta key. With a better setup today and his late pace figures, Policy Option has every chance. Mow!

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 130000b

#7 Infinite (15/1) – The “other” Wesley Ward in this field, his best race came at Keeneland at this distance last spring. He was extremely game in that effort and pulled off the upset at 12/1. While he likely can’t beat his stable mate #9 Bound for Nowhere (2/5) here, a stone cold 7/9 exacta should pay double digits.

Race 8: 1½ Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 120000n2x

#1 Federalist Papers (6/1) – Drawn well to the inside, this mare actually improved moving away from the Chad Brown last fall. She ran a big race at Keeneland at this distance last time, where she was far back behind a slow pace and still made up significant ground down the stretch. She’s run well and won off the bench before and she’s running for the meets hottest connections. Add another winner for Walsh, Gaffalione and the Conductor.