Tag: keeneland

Keeneland Friday Picks — April 14, 2023 | Full Card Value Plays

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Group of people enjoying an outdoor event, holding drinks, with a man in a vintage hat in the background, capturing a lively atmosphere.

Yes, Mr. Conductor, Yes! I need to get my hands on his pony crystal ball. A nice 6/1 #gullet shot winner Thursday at Keeneland along with a 29/1 shot running 4th and a 44/1 shot running 3rd. We bow to him, but as always we passengers want more. You’re only as good as your last race. Skip.

Race 5: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Mrs. Astor (6/1) – The Conductor was very impressed with this filly’s maiden breaker last time. She was wide and uncovered the entire turn and still powered home, running a strong late pace figure. This race is wide open and she should get a nice ground saving trip. 5/1 or better would have the Conductor giddy with joy. Let’s make it back to back #gullets.

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Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.FanDuel Limestone Stakes

#4 Accomplished Girl (6/1) – The Conductor cashed on this filly last time after a tough trip in her debut. She ran them off their feet and will now take on winners for the first time. Even though last time she went gate to wire, the Conductor’s trained eye sees that she’s handy enough to stalk and pounce. There will be a scorching pace set up front in this one. The Conductor is looking for Zayas to sit just behind the dueling leaders and tip out entering the stretch.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) G1 Maker’s Mark Mile

#6 In Love (30/1) – #7 Modern Games (3/5) obviously beats this over matched field. However, we can still make some money and sweet love in this race. This old gelding can beat the rest of the bunch with his A game and he looks primed for a top effort. He made a middle move in his prep race on synthetic and now gets back to his best distance and surface today. He’s won a Grade 1 over this Keeneland turf course going a mile and we just need him to run 2nd.

Keeneland Thursday Picks — April 13, 2023 | Full Card Contenders

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Woof, what could have been at Keeneland Wednesday.

However, a 6/1 2nd and a 60/1 trifecta handed to us on a platter was still very generous of the Conductor. But, us passengers are a greedy bunch. Let’s cross the wire first today Mr. Ductor! Skip.

Keeneland Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Quality Star (8/1) – This race is wide open. #11 Diamond Hands (7/5) is a favorite the Conductor will bet against every day of the week. She’s proven she likes to cough it up late and will be hustled hard early to clear going into the first turn. That will set it up nicely for a closer and the Conductor landed on Quality Star. She draws well to the inside and is making her first turf start as a 4-year-old. It took her a while to break her maiden last year, but she was consistent and ran multiple speed figures that can win this race. Trainer Paul Lobo has them ready to ready to run off the bench too. He’s 19% with a +$0.50 ROI this year with starters off 90+ day breaks.

keeneland

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Mdn 100k

#5 I Had That One Too (30/1) – Why not? Nobody has proven anything in this maiden field and this filly ran well last time stretching out to two turns for the first time. She was in the parking lot around both turns and still finished well down the stretch. The distance will be no problem for her and she could step forward trying dirt for the first time. The Conductor has seen more head scratching longshots win and she’ll light up the exotics even if she runs underneath.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 120000n2x

#2 Cowboy Justice (20/1) – #1 Verbal (5/2) likely wins this race, but he won’t provide us value. If we can pair him up with this Keeneland cowboy, then we’re in business. The rest of this field doesn’t get the Conductor’s attention, so he found this foreign invader with a nice inside draw. He’s working well, has back class and is making his first start as a 4-year-old. Trainer Connor Murphy is 2/5 with a +$3.76 ROI with shippers to the US this year as well.

Keeneland Wednesday Picks — April 12, 2023 | Full Card Contenders

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Two women at a horse racing event, one holding a program, with jockeys and horses in the background.

The Conductor stunk Friday at Keeneland and family kept him away from the track this weekend. What a selfish bunch of passengers. Nothing to stop him this week, or ever. Let’s start the racing week of strong. Skip.

Race 6: 6½ Furlongs. Alw 50000s

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Captain Jack (15/1) – This gelding won at 35/1 after a poor debut last time, but there was nothing fluky about his victory. He pressed the pace and was floated out wide on the turn and continued to grind. He was even bumped entering the stretch and didn’t waiver. He’ll be facing tougher today, but his last race gives him a chance on numbers and the favorites look vulnerable to the Conductor. This morning line is bad per usual at Keeneland, but he’ll still be in the 8/1 range. That’s good enough for the Conductor, so it’s good enough for me.

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Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 120000n2x

#3 One Time Mo (20/1) – #11 Flirting Bridge (1/1) clearly has a class edge over this group, but she draws outside and is coming in off a layoff. She probably wins, however with a full field we can still extract some value even if she does. One Time Mo is steadily progressing on dirt and switches to turf for the first time. She runs like a turf horse and continues to run well closing into slow paces on dirt. She’s bred to step forward on the grass and gets a nice inside draw. Her price will be massive to boot. One Time!

#8 Sister Lou Ann (8/1) – There isn’t any other early speed in this race and this filly will be all by herself. She’s working well off the bench and Irad hops aboard. She is a major threat to go gate to wire. This Keeneland turf course tends to favor speed.

 

Keeneland Opening Day Picks — April 7, 2023 | Spring Meet Kickoff Best Bets

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Horses and jockeys starting a race on a dirt track with spectators in the background.

The last time the Conductor spoke to us, he gave us Affirmative Lady who scored at 8/1 Saturday. He’s seeing the ball well and opening up the Keeneland entries nearly brought him to tears. Full fields of delicious lawn mowing racing, what more could we ask for? NYRA gets back to the turf this week.as well. It’s officially horse racing season. Buckle Up passengers.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 140000b

#2 Camp Hope (8/1) – Making his 3rd start off a break and switching back to turf, this horse is 3/3 at Keeneland. He draws a good inside post and gets Lasix back too. The Conductor is ignoring his recent synthetic form and you should as well. Anything over 5/1 is generous.

#3 Kentucky Ghost (12/1) – Another contender that likes this Keeneland turf course, his class makes him tough when he drops back to the allowance level. He’ll be finishing strong late. In his last two starts at Keeneland vs similar he won at 7/1 and was beaten by a neck.

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 120000n2x

#4 Laugh and Play (6/1) – The Ward runners will be hammered here and the Conductor thinks this filly’s price will float up. She’s been running over the synthetic this winter and has scorching early speed. Turf looks like her best surface to the Conductor and she’ll benefit from the shorter distance. Only one of the Ward horses will be sent early, so she’ll sit a favorable trip on the lead or tracking in 2nd.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) G3 Kentucky Utilities Transylvania Stakes

#11 Carl Spackler (3/1) – This colt will be a short price, but he looks like a monster. The Conductor had to mention him, watch his last race.

#6 Mi Hermano Ramon (15/1) – He’s the one that can inject value into this race for us passengers. He won his debut routing at Del Mar and then followed that with a stakes win down the hill. The Conductor loves to see that type of versatility. Additionally, he has a legit excuse last time where he had a trip from hell in a race that has come back strong. This colt has talent and will run a big race.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Ashland-G1 Central Bank Ashland Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Pride of The Nile (12/1) – The two favorites don’t lay over this field on numbers, so the Conductor is looking for a price. The Ductor is going to ignore this filly’s last effort and her form prior makes her a contender. She was fractious in the gate last time and then broke way in while fighting the rider. She clearly wasn’t herself. The fact that O’neil still has the confidence to bring her back in a Grade 1 is a positive sign. The Conductor likes that she has three solid works over this Keeneland dirt and the rail is usually the place to be. At a big price, the Ductor will take a swing that shows who she really is today.

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BAQ and Keeneland: Key Horses for Saturday, October 29

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View of the Keeneland paddock area with spectators observing horses and handlers in a grassy setting.

Outatadore getting bet down to 5/2? You selfish passengers, think about the Ductor one time. Still a strong Friday at Keeneland, let’s keep up the momentum. Skip.

Aqueduct

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. G3 Bold Ruler Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Runninsonofagun (9/2) – This colt has gotten sneaky good this year, not being embarrassed by the likes of Gunite and Jack Christopher. Then he got away from those monsters at Parx last time, he got a trip from hell and still rallied for a strong 3rd off a dead rail. Facing an even weaker group today, the Ductor is salivating at this morning line.

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Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Outer Turf) Alw 50000s

#5 Six Minus (6/1) – This gelding continues to progress with each start for Pletcher and ran well last time off the bench at Kentucky Downs. He now shortens in distance, draws well and Prat hops aboard. There is a lot to like at 6/1.

Keeneland

Race 4: 7 Furlongs. F.Alw 110000n1x

#2 Hypersport (9/2) – #7 Olga Isabel (9/5) is a solid favorite, but the Ductor likes this fillies upside and she’ll be a much better price. She’s shown ability in her young career and ran races in the spring around par for this level. She enters today off a long layoff and developed physically with natural maturity. Add a strong work tab and a weight break today, the Ductor sees her running a career best.

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. G2 Hagyard Fayette Stakes

#5 King Fury (8/1) – The small field really hurts the feature race, however the Ductor likes this colt quite a bit. He ran some really strong races as a 2-year-old and has improved in his first two starts at 3. His last race was also better than it looks on paper without the best trip vs tougher horses than he will see today. Making his third start off the layoff, he’s ready to fire a big one.

Keeneland: Late Pick 5 Key Horses for Friday, October 28

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Horses and jockeys starting a race on a dirt track with spectators in the background.

Well, the Ductor’s Keeneland ban lasted one day. Aqueduct’s Friday card is is pathetic. We don’t want a big day, we need one. Skip.

Race 6: 6½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 100k

#2 Scarlet Stripe (5/2) – This filly was game last time fighting all the way around the track. She’ll get get the jump on the favorite, #4 Sunny River (7/5), and the Ductor likes her early pace edge.

#3 Parents Pride (6/1) -She ran very well on turf in her debut at Saratoga chasing a quick pace 3-wide and uncovered on the turn. Last time at Kentucky Downs she didn’t run a step over a quirky course and the Ductor will ignore that race. She switches to dirt for the first time today and Irad hops aboard, which is a positive sign. She can pop at a price.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.Myrtlewood Stakes

#6 Key of Life (8/5) – The chalk looks tough to beat in this spot. This filly won easy as can be last time over this Keeneland track and has improved with each start. She’s the key to the Ductor’s financial well being today.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Rubicon Valley View Stakes

#1 California Angel (7/2) – The scratch of the favorite here annoys the Ductor, as he was planning to play against her. This fill ran well enough closing into a slow pace last race and takes on a much weaker group today. She’s the logical choice.

#6 Majestic Glory (6/1) – This filly has kept good company across the pond and ran well in her first start in the states last time closing into a slow pace. The Ductor likes the added distance for her and she has major upside.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. F.OC 80000n2x

#8 Microcap (9/2) – This is the most open race in the late pick 5 and the Ductor landed on this mare. She ran a good 2nd off the bench at Churchill and will be tough to beat shortening to her best distance today.

#7 Gerri B (12/1) – She’s a wildcard that has the Ductor’s attention. She’s run competitive figures at Keeneland for this level, but they all have been sprinting. She’s working well entering today and will try routing today for the first time. If she can carry her early speed, she’s very dangerous.

Race 10: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 140000b

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Outadore (10/1) – The Ductor isn’t sure why they’ve run this gelding so frequently on synthetic. He showed real talent as a 2-year-old and is finally getting back to his best surface and distance here. 10/1 would be a gift from the pony gods.

Keeneland

Belmont and Keeneland: Stakes Horses for Sunday, October 10

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Exciting horse race at Keeneland with multiple horses racing on the track and spectators watching from the stands.

Nothing a Sunday Stakes sweep can’t fix. Skip

Belmont

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) G3 Futurity Stakes

#3 Biz Biz Buzz (8/1) – This colt showed talent in his debut winning easy with an impressive wide move. He should get a nice trip today with a hot pace to run at.

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G2 Beldame Stakes

#3 Zaajel (10/1) – The Ductor will ignore her last effort and play her at a big price. Her win two back over this Belmont track two back gives her a chance vs this group.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) G3 Knickerbocker Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 En Wye Cee (8/1) – He ran well off the bench last time and may have won with a cleaner trip. He’ll be more fit today and Johnny V should take him right to the front in a race without any other pace. Gate to wire.

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Keeneland

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Indian Summer Stakes

#2 Kaufymaker (7/2) – The “other” Ward in here, she ran very well last time pressing a hot pace 3 wide. Shortening to 5 1/2 furlongs today, she’ll be very dangerous.

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes

#4 Letruska (4/5) – She’s as game as they come and the lone speed. The Ductor can’t play against her.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) G2 Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes

#11 Heaven Street (8/1) – He won easy in his first try stretching out last time. The Ductor will enjoy plenty of bourbon to end is Sunday with a juicy price.

Keeneland: Key Horses for Saturday, October 9

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Horses and jockeys lined up at the starting gate at Keeneland Racecourse during a race.

Inside speed dominated opening day on dirt as it often does at Keeneland, so pay attention early today. Beautiful card with salty stakes. Keep your head on a swivel and strike when Keeneland drops it’s gloves. Skip.

Keeneland Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) G2 Woodford Stakes

#3 Inhalation (30/1) – The Ductor is against Golden Pal, who will likely be 2/5 in this spot. He’s returning from a clunker across the pond and isn’t much faster than the field. This gelding is taking a big step up in class, but he is improving and has talent. He could not have won easier last time after missing the break then circling the field without being asked. The Ductor likes #7 County Final (5/1) here as well.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.G2 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes

#4 Estilo Talentoso (5/2) – She’s been running well against the best competition and lost all chance after a poor start last time. She dead heated for 2nd with the heavy favorite #7 Bell’s the One in the Madison this spring and she’ll be 3x the price at least.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.G1 First Lady Stakes

#10 Princess Grace (6/1) – This is a very competitive field and there are many ways you can go. This filly continues to win no matter where she runs and now steps up to face the big girls. She has enough early speed to put herself in good position going into the first turn and the Ductor thinks she may go off higher than the morning line. The other top contenders are #3 Altiqua (7/2) and #9 Blowout (8/1).

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. G1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 American Sanctuary (12/1) – This colt rolled by his competition in his first race stretching out last time and then completely lost focus in the stretch. He thought the race was over and then re-rallied when he was passed late. With more experience and the whip today, the Ductor thinks he is very dangerous.

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Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) G1 Keeneland Turf Mile Stakes

#4 Space Traveller (6/1) – He’s run well in his two starts in America, including a very good 2nd last time against the race flow. He beat Raging Bull, who would be a favorite in here and he looks to get a good trip today, drawn to the inside.

Keeneland: Key Horses for Friday, October 8

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Horses racing at Keeneland during the spring meet with jockeys in colorful silks.

The Ductor can smell that fresh Keeneland lawn. Skip.

Keeneland Race 2: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 84k

#5 Gingrich (9/2) – This colt made an early, wide move into a quick pace last time and predictably flattened out late. He has the best foundation of the group and Ductor sees him in the winner’s circle.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 84k

#8 Fannie and Freddie (6/1) – She made a nice move in her debut against a tough group at Saratoga before tiring late. She’s working well entering today and a natural step forward gives her every chance.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 90000n3x

#6 Beacon Hill (9/2) – This gelding continues to improve and has shown talent this year. He’s the one to beat in the Ductor’s opinion, hopefully that morning line holds.

*Keeneland Throat Kick #11 Americanus (15/1) – He has upside stretching out for the first time after a game win trying turf last time. He’ll go right to the front and could surprise them at a big number.

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Race 8: 6 Furlongs. G2 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes

#5 Aloha West (3/1) – His last race was good enough to win here and he looks to get a nce trip stalking dueling frontrunners.

Race 9: 1 1/16 F. G1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes

#8 Distinctlypossible (8/1) – She just missed sprinting in her debut and is bred to improve stretching out. She’ll get a nice trip sitting behind sitting behind a quick pace.

Keeneland: Key Horses for Friday, April 16

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Crowd watching horse racing at Keeneland with horses on the track.

Bye Bye Melvin got nailed in the final strides and Ballymore Star stunk Thursday. The Conductor really likes his prices today at Keeneland. Let’s head into the weekend with a full caboose. Skip

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Alw 87000b

#4 Hay Dakota (8/1) – He ran sneaky well last time in a merry go round race off a break. Now stretching out for Maker, he’s working well and looks to get a favorable trip with a hot pace to run at.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 81000n1x

#1 Girl Named Patsy (12/1) – This girl won very nicely last time off the layoff and is now switching back to turf. She’s in good form while many of the contenders in here are coming in off breaks.  She should be able to but herself in a good position early and work out a favorable trip. For a turf sprint this race does not have much early pace.

#6 Senora Roma (8/1) – Trying turf for the first time off the bench, she has a major early pace advantage over this field. If she takes to the grass, she can wire the field.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile.G3 Baird Doubledogdare Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Eres Tu (4/1) – This mare has been steadily progressing since last fall and ran huge off the layoff last time making an early move into a hot pace. She’ll be more fit today and will be the likely 4th betting choice in a competitive field.

Keeneland