Tag: keeneland

Well, everybody knows the biggest scores come after you go 0/3 Saturday at Keeneland. Skip

Race 3: *7 Furlongs. F.Clm 50000b

#3 Lucy’s Cakes Fly (10/1) – There is no early speed in this race other than this mare. She set a scorching pace going a mile last time over synthetic and did well to hang on for 4th. The shorter distance will help her today and she’ll be trying dirt for the first time. She has upside in an open race and can blitz this field on the front end.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. MC 30000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Save Your Tears (15/1) – This filly’s last race fits with this heinous group and that was despite a terrible trip. She was bumped hard at the break and then stuck behind horses the entire way around. She couldn’t have gotten a worse ride and she’ll be a big price for a low % barn today. She’ll make up for all of the Conductor’s mistakes yesterday and then some.

Race 7: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Alw 120000n2x

#7 Bakwena (15/1) – This gelding continues to run strong late pace figures behind slow paces. There is absolutely no speed in this race as well, but the Conductor will trust the red hot Gaffalione to work out a good trip. The race will likely be a bunched field where they all have a chance turning for home. He ran a race last year at Keeneland at this distance that would give him every chance here. Bakwena will be mowing down the stretch.

1/3 Friday with Frost Point getting home at 9/2 made it a positive day. However, a not too difficult pick 6 paying 21k has Mr. Conductor kicking himself. I wouldn’t want to be Keeneland on Saturday, he’s coming for blood. Skip.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 120000n2x

#7 Myriskyaffair (7/2) – The Conductor will happily bet against the heavy favorite #3 Mise En Scene (7/5) running off a long layoff. There is also no early speed in this race. Prat is aware of this and will take Myriskysaffair right to the front. She’ll have the jump on this field and the Ductor will bet she sneaks away in the stretch. Gate to wire.

Race 8: 1½ Mile. (Turf) G2 Elkhorn Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Another Mystery (15/1) – The Conductor backed this gelding last time and he ran decent, but was too far back behind a slow pace. He should get a more favorable setup today and will benefit from the added distance. He ran a good 2nd in this race last year behind #1 Channel Maker (9/2), who has lost a step. Another Mystery will be double digit odds and has as good a chance as any in this wide open affair.

Race 9: 1 3/8 Mile. G3 Ben Ali Stakes

#7 Tawny Port (8/1) – Making his 3rd start off the bench at Keeneland, he’s been too far back behind slow paces in his last two starts. With the added distance, blinkers and upgrade to Prat, he will be much closer to the pace today. His Jim Dandy performance behind Epicenter last summer is the most impressive race this field has. The Conductor has that feeling in his left knee that he’s ready to roll.

1/3 with a 5/2 winner and two 2nds by a neck Thursday at Keeneland. What could have been. Thank the Pony Gods Sherlock’s Jewel held on in the finale. The Conductor would of broke everything in the train station. There’s a juicy two day pick 6 carryover into Friday’s card. No time to talk about the past, Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 110000n1x

#13 Red Hot Rod (6/1) – The first t0 draw in after scratches, the Conductor is hoping to see at least one defect in the morning. If this gelding draws in, the Conductor will likely single him to start the pick 6. He can knock every other contender in this race and Red Hot Rod should improve moving to turf for the first time. He’s exiting a nice win over the synthetic and smells like all the other Ward horses that have won this meet.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 130000n3x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 Valentina Day (20/1) – Throw out this filly’s dirt races. She’s 3/3 on synthetic and ran big for 3rd after dueling in her lone turf start. She gets back to the turf today after an unexpected win off the bench last time. She should take another step forward here, like Colebrook runners usually do. He’s 19% with a +$0.22 ROI with runners 2nd off the bench this year. Most importantly, there is no early speed in this race. Valentina Day should have no problem clearing over to at least the two path going into the first turn and working out a favorable trip.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G3 Baird Doubledogdare Stakes

#3 Frost Point (12/1) – This mare is in good form while the favorites in here are making their first starts of the  season. She’s run well over this Keeneland dirt surface before and has the versatility to work out any trip she desires. If she’s anywhere near double digit odds, you passengers must bet her.

0/2 with a scratch Wednesday for Mr. Ductor at Keeneland starts us in a hole this week. Keeneland is starting to break the Conductor’s brain, but it is always darkest before the dawn. The prices are coming. Skip.

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Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Hideki (6/1) – This filly is progressing on synthetic and ran even better than it looks last time with a poor trip. She showed early speed then checked sharply going into the turn. The Conductor thought they were going to ease her, but she re-rallied for 2nd galloping out well in front of the rest. Now she moves to turf for the first time. This is the surface she’s bred for and this is a wide open race. The Conductor loves her.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. OC 80000n2x

#8 Curbstone (6/1) – This race either has a heinous morning line, or #1 Vittorio (6/5) is the worst favorite the Conductor has ever seen at Keeneland. Curbstone is in the best form of anyone in this field and is 3/4 at the distance. If he’s anywhere close to 6/1 you passengers should empty your piggy banks.

#7 Creative Minister (15/1) – A longshot would not surprise the Conductor in this race. This horse has back class and past performances that would put him in the winners circle today. He ran decent in the slop last time off the bench and now looks ready to fire a top effort. McPeek is 20% with a +$0.10 ROI this year with starters 2nd race off a layoff.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 100k

#7 Sherlock’s Jewel (12/1) – This colt set a quick pace at Kentucky Downs last fall and held on for a good 2nd. He returns to Keeneland as a 3-year-old and gets Lasix for the first time. There is no other early speed in this race and the Conductor likes Saez on this boy. He won’t mess around and take him right to the front.

Well, Sunday finished off a terrible weekend. You ever get so frustrated on a Sunday at Keeneland you finish capping Wednesday’s card before your goodnight stew? No? Good, neither has the Conductor. Skip.

Keeneland Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

#6 Fancy Caber Neigh (6/1) – This filly got caught in a fast paced speed duel in her first start stretching out on synthetic last time. There is no other early speed in this race and she has upside moving to turf for the first time. Her breeding suggests she’ll relish the lawn and this turf course has been kind to speed. She’ll have the lead turning for home and the Conductor will be screaming at her to mow.

Race 6: 1½ Mile. (Turf) Alw 110000n1x

#2 Solid Country Gold (20/1) – This is a strange allowance race with very few runners with solid turf form. This gelding is improving and outran his odds last time at Keeneland closing into a slow pace. There will be a quick pace set for this distance  and the Conductor sees him working out a nice ground saving trip. He should appreciate the added distance and he can make our week on a Wednesday.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Bel Rosso (15/1) – Returning off the bench, this filly ran two solid turf efforts last year. In her race at Kentucky Downs, she had a poor turf trip chasing 4-wide and uncovered and still hung on for 3rd. There aren’t any standouts in this field and she has as good a chance as any to win at a big number. She gets Lasix for the first time too.

Well Saturday was certainly not what the Ductor ordered. A chalk fest left him scrounging the couch creases for spare change. Keeneland can be a fickle beast, but the Conductor will not waiver. Time to finish the weekend with a bang. Skip.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 140000b

#3 Gam’s Mission (3/1) – Despite the small field this race should have quick pace with the other contenders vying for the early lead. This mare looks to get a dream trip and gets a rider upgrade to Gaffalione as well. 3/1 would be generous in a six horse field.

Race 5: 6½ Furlongs. OC 80000n2x

#2 Top of the Charts (8/1) – This gelding showed real talent in his first two starts last year before something went wrong. Making his first start as a 4-year-old today, he will beat this group if he’s developed over the winter. He’s working well and trainer Brian Lynch has them ready to roll off the bench. Lynch is 18% with a +$0.34 ROI this year with starters returning after 90+ day breaks.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Palisades Stakes

#4 Crispy Cat (8/1) – He showed the Conductor real grit last time when he was on the inside dueling the 4/5 favorite and turned him away. The extra 1/2 furlong is going to be scary, but he’ll have the jump on this field and this Keeneland turf course is favoring speed. C’mon Mr. Cat. Fry them!

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. F.G2 Beaumont Stakes

#4 Interpolate (9/2) – She’s steadily progressing and ran a huge late pace figure last time closing behind a slow pace. She looks to get a better trip today with a hot pace to run at. The Conductor thinks #7 Key of Life (1/1) is a very vulnerable favorite. She has yet to try this distance or win when she hasn’t gotten the early lead, which she wont today.

Woof, what could have been at Keeneland Wednesday.

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However, a 6/1 2nd and a 60/1 trifecta handed to us on a platter was still very generous of the Conductor. But, us passengers are a greedy bunch. Let’s cross the wire first today Mr. Ductor! Skip.

Keeneland Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Quality Star (8/1) – This race is wide open. #11 Diamond Hands (7/5) is a favorite the Conductor will bet against every day of the week. She’s proven she likes to cough it up late and will be hustled hard early to clear going into the first turn. That will set it up nicely for a closer and the Conductor landed on Quality Star. She draws well to the inside and is making her first turf start as a 4-year-old. It took her a while to break her maiden last year, but she was consistent and ran multiple speed figures that can win this race. Trainer Paul Lobo has them ready to ready to run off the bench too. He’s 19% with a +$0.50 ROI this year with starters off 90+ day breaks.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Mdn 100k

#5 I Had That One Too (30/1) – Why not? Nobody has proven anything in this maiden field and this filly ran well last time stretching out to two turns for the first time. She was in the parking lot around both turns and still finished well down the stretch. The distance will be no problem for her and she could step forward trying dirt for the first time. The Conductor has seen more head scratching longshots win and she’ll light up the exotics even if she runs underneath.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 120000n2x

#2 Cowboy Justice (20/1) – #1 Verbal (5/2) likely wins this race, but he won’t provide us value. If we can pair him up with this Keeneland cowboy, then we’re in business. The rest of this field doesn’t get the Conductor’s attention, so he found this foreign invader with a nice inside draw. He’s working well, has back class and is making his first start as a 4-year-old. Trainer Connor Murphy is 2/5 with a +$3.76 ROI with shippers to the US this year as well.

The Conductor stunk Friday at Keeneland and family kept him away from the track this weekend. What a selfish bunch of passengers. Nothing to stop him this week, or ever. Let’s start the racing week of strong. Skip.

Race 6: 6½ Furlongs. Alw 50000s

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Captain Jack (15/1) – This gelding won at 35/1 after a poor debut last time, but there was nothing fluky about his victory. He pressed the pace and was floated out wide on the turn and continued to grind. He was even bumped entering the stretch and didn’t waiver. He’ll be facing tougher today, but his last race gives him a chance on numbers and the favorites look vulnerable to the Conductor. This morning line is bad per usual at Keeneland, but he’ll still be in the 8/1 range. That’s good enough for the Conductor, so it’s good enough for me.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 120000n2x

#3 One Time Mo (20/1) – #11 Flirting Bridge (1/1) clearly has a class edge over this group, but she draws outside and is coming in off a layoff. She probably wins, however with a full field we can still extract some value even if she does. One Time Mo is steadily progressing on dirt and switches to turf for the first time. She runs like a turf horse and continues to run well closing into slow paces on dirt. She’s bred to step forward on the grass and gets a nice inside draw. Her price will be massive to boot. One Time!

#8 Sister Lou Ann (8/1) – There isn’t any other early speed in this race and this filly will be all by herself. She’s working well off the bench and Irad hops aboard. She is a major threat to go gate to wire. This Keeneland turf course tends to favor speed.