Tag: keeneland

Keeneland: Key Horses For Friday, April 9

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Horses with jockeys walking in a line at Keeneland Racecourse during an event.

The Conductor will not concede and start giving you passengers chalk. Go to any other site for that, the prices at Keeneland will come. Makers Mark Friday, always a treat. Let’s Ride.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.TVG Limestone Turf Sprint Stakes

#7 Tobys Heart (6/1) – Campanelle (8/5) looks very tough in here, but there are some other very talented runners. The distance proved too much for this girl last time off the layoff, but now she’s cutting back to a sprint. Both her wins at 5 1/2 furlongs have been very impressive.

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. Alw 81000n1x P

#4 My Man Flintstone (10/1) – He may not win, but he’s a good trifecta key at a price. 2nd off the bench today, his numbers fit with this group and he looks to get a favorable trip tracking the leaders.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) G1 Maker’s Mark Mile Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Darain (8/1) – This colt had a brutal trip last time at Keeneland in his allowance race and still won for fun. It doesn’t matter who he beat, the amount of The Conductor likes that Cox has given him two races to get acclimated from across the pond before giving him the acid test.

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Keeneland: Bluegrass Stakes Day Key Horses for Saturday, April 3

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A horse with the number 12 on its saddle walking in front of a crowd at Keeneland Racecourse.

Spring has officially sprung. Now it’s Bluegrass Stakes day passengers and the Conductor is ready for war whenever you are. Skip!

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) G2 Shakertown Stakes

#7 Kanthaka (6/1) – This sprint is loaded with early speed and this gelding is the Conductor’s favorite closer in the race. She undoubtedly runs her best off the layoff and looks to trip out in this spot as well.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G1 Central Bank Ashland Stakes

#2 Pass the Champagne (4/1) – With the two favorites coming in off long layoffs, the Conductor is turning to the up and coming filly. He’s been impressed by her first two starts and she can use her early pace to make make the others earn it too.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. F.G1 Madison Stakes

#3 Mundaye Call (8/1) – The obvious lone speed in a sprint with no other pace. She obviously has every chance.

#5 Kimari (5/2) – This is a really cool filly whose versatility is remarkable. She can be placed anywhere in the race and win. Additionally, she can handle any surface.

Race 11: 1 1/8 Mile.G2 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Highly Motivated (3/1) – This Bluegrass Stakes devoid of pace, the Conductor is going to take a shot against the heavy favorite #4 Essential Quality (3/5). This colt’s right with him on numbers and is continuously running well after poor starts and tough trips. If he can break cleanly he should go right to the front and we’ll see how good he is. The talent is there and he’ll be at least 3x the price.

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Breeders’ Cup Classic Picks and Analysis

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A brown racehorse with a jockey in white and blue attire racing on a track during a competition.

Breeders’ Cup Classic time. Skip.

Saturday, November 7 – Race 12: 1 ¼ G1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic

#1 Tacitus (20/1) – The granddaddy of them all and a more competitive Classic than we’ve seen in recent years. There are many with a chance in here and this colt isn’t one of them. However, he is a consistent runner and they’ll likely go back to taking him off the pace today. Everyone hates this horse because he’s cost them money, but if he’s really that price the Conductor will use him in 3rd. He can see a scenario where he grinds away while the others try to win the race and picks up the bronze at a big number.

#2 Tiz the Law (3/1)

This colt has the most upside in the field. He got turned away in the derby, but he’s had some time to rest and can still improve. If you watch his Travers again, he never even takes it out of 2nd gear. That being said, there are some serious older racehorses in here and the Conductor will only use him as a backup.

#3 By My Standards (10/1) – This colt always runs his race, he’s just not as good as Improbable and Tom’s d’Etat. The Conductor can’t see a scenario where he jumps up to beat them here.

#4 Tom’s d’Etat (6/1) – Every passenger and their mother are picking this horse, so he may be in the 9/2 range. The Conductor understands the hype as the stumble cost him the race last time.  He also ran a huge late pace figure. However, a stumble as a 7-year-old is a sign of going off form, which is likely why connections have trained him up to this race. He’s going to have to run his A+ race to win in here and the Conductor thinks that’s a tough ask.

#5 Title Ready (30/1) – He’ll drop to the back and try to make one run to pick up 3rd, but he’s not getting ready for any title.

#6 Higher Power (20/1) – He’ll need god to come down to his stall tonight for him to be competitive.

#7 Global Campaign (20/1) – This colt is improving this year, but that’s with him being on the early lead. He has a 0% chance of getting the lead in this race.

*#8 Improbable (5/2)

The Conductor thinks we’re going to get 3/1 in here as he’s not getting the respect he deserves. He’s turned into a real racehorse this year.  Most importantly, the Ductor sees him getting a nice trip in this Breeders’ Cup Classic. Authentic and Maximum Security will get sent from his outside and he’ll be able to get the outside stalking trip that he loves. He’ll be in the clear and ready to pounce whenever he pleases. He’s the one to beat.

breeders' cup classic

#9 Authentic (6/1) – This colt still has the Conductor’s brain in a pretzel. There really isn’t a ton of other speed in here other than Maximum Security and they’re both trained by Baffert. They won’t duel which will help his chances, but this feels like a bounce spot for him and he’ll have to run even better taking on older horses for the first time. The Conductor is going to watch how Swiss Skydiver fairs in the Distaff before he makes his final judgement. For now, he’s leaning against.

#10 Maximum Security (7/2) – The Conductor is going to toss him from the exacta. Improbable dusted him last time and the Conductor can’t see him turning the tables. He’ll be heavily bet because of his fame, but he’s going in the wrong direction.

Picks: 8 

Breeders’ Cup Distaff Picks and Analysis

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A group of racehorses competing on a dirt track during a horse race.

Breeders’ Cup Distaff time. Skip.

Saturday, November 7 – Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff

#1 Ce Ce (12/1) – This is the least competitive race Saturday in the Conductor’s opinion. He’d be shocked if anyone other than #5 Swiss Skydiver or #10 Monomoy Girl won. This filly can’t compete with them.

*#2 Harvest Moon (12/1) – This is the filly with upside that the Conductor will key in the exacta. If one of the big girls doesn’t fire she can get in there. She continues to steadily progress and answer each tougher test.

breeders' cup distaff

#3 Dunbar Road (12/1) – She’s digressed this year, no thanks.

#4 Horologist (8/1) – You can’t knock her last effort, but she’ll be the likely 3rd choice and this is a different class of runners.

#5 Swiss Skydiver (2/1) – This filly’s stretch run in the Preakness will make your hair stand up. She can take down Monomoy Girl unless the Preakness took too much out of her.

#6 Lady Kate (15/1) – She’ll set the early pace and then get engulfed.

#7 Point of Honor (30/1) – This girl has let the Conductor down too many times. However, she’ll be flying late and can round out the trifecta.

#8 Valiance (8/1) – Another possible candidate for 3rd. She is improving and ran very well last time over this Keeneland surface.

#9 Ollie’s Candy (10/1) – This mare always runs well and is chandelier. She hates the winners circle, 3rd at best.

*#10 Monomoy Girl (8/5) – Gun to head the Conductor thinks she’ll beat Swiss Skydiver, but he’s hoping for a showdown. She’s fresh and never loses.

Picks: 10 – 5 – 2

Breeders’ Cup Mile Picks and Analysis

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Two racehorses competing in a race at the Breeders' Cup event on a grassy track.

Breeders’ Cup Mile time, Skip.

Saturday, November 7 – Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) G1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile

#1 Circus Maximus (12/1) – This colt is going the wrong direction and the Conductor won’t use him.

#2 Kameko (6/1) – He draws well and the Conductor thinks he’s the most likely of the European contingent. He’s best at a mile and has a strong kick.

#3 Lope Y Fernandez (30/1) – The Conductor thinks he’ll improve with the added distance and may be able to grab 3rd at a big price.

#4 Siskin (15/1) – He’s another shipper that isn’t progressing. He won’t be used.

*#5 Digital Age (8/1) – He’s the Conductor’s 2nd choice in here. He ran very well to win the turf classic last time, which the Conductor thinks was a very fast race. He looks to get another good trip and is 2/2 at the distance.

#6 Safe Voyage (15/1) – This old man is a hard knocker and wouldn’t surprise the Conductor. The Ductor doesn’t see him winning though.

#7 Casa Creed (20/1) – He’s not good enough.

#8 March to the Arch (15/1) – He ran very well closing into a slow pace at Woodbine last time. His last two races have been strong, but his form in the states prior hasn’t been great. Watch to see how Starship Jubilee runs in the Filly and Mare turf and adjust accordingly.

#9 One Master (12/1) – If you use Safe Voyage, you must use One Master. Again, he can win but the Conductor prefers others.

#10 Halladay (12/1) – He ran well last time, although he set fast fractions all the speed horses held up. He won’t be able to clear #13 Factor This, so the Conductor won’t use him.

#11 Ivar (4/1) – Lol at the morning line. He was visually impressive last race, but got a nice trip with the flow. He can win this race but if he’s 4/1 with an outside draw you can’t bet him.

#12 Uni (5/1) – Looking to beat the boys again this year, she’s another that wouldn’t surprise the Conductor. However, he doesn’t think she’s as good as last year and she’ll have to really earn it.

*Gullet Shot of the Day #13 Factor This (8/1) – He draws a tough post, but he’s the Conductor’s top pick in here. Halladay is the only other speed and he has the option to clear him or sit right to his outside. He’s the one they’ll all have to catch turning for home.

breeders' cup mile

#14 Raging Bull (8/1) – He’ll drop to the back of the pack and make one run. The Conductor can’t see him passing them all though.

Picks: 13 – 5 – 2

Breeders’ Cup Sprint Picks and Analysis

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A racehorse with a jockey wearing a white and orange uniform riding at a racetrack.

Breeders’ Cup Sprint time, Let’s Ride.

Saturday, November 7 – Race 8: 6 Furlongs. G1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint

#1 Echo Down (20/1) – This is one of the weakest sprint fields in recent memory, but it leaves it open for the Conductor to make some real money on some prices. This colt isn’t one of them, he’d be a surprise.

#2 C Z Rocket (7/2) – He’s become a new animal in the Peter Miller barn (shocker). He can absolutely win this race but at a short price the Conductor doesn’t love him in his  toughest challenge to date.

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Collusion Illusion (20/1)

A Grade 1 winner, he finished behind C Z Rocket last time, but he got a sneaky weird trip stuck inside and galloped out in front. The Conductor sees Prat putting in a good spot early and he has every chance in this open rendition of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

Breeders' Cup sprint

#4 Bon Raison (30/1) – He got a favorable trip last time in a race that melted down. He’s not a Grade 1 horse.

#5 Manny Wah (30/1) – The exact same notes as Bon Raison.

#6 Frank’s Rockette (10/1) – This filly is taking on the boys today and this is a good spot to do it. She can scoot and wouldn’t shock him. Does he love her? No.

#7 Whitmore (15/1) – This old man is a warrior and will be running late with a hot pace in front. However, his last few races haven’t been great and he’ll only be used underneath.

*#8 Firenze Fire (8/1) – The Conductor is a big fan of this horse and he has a major chance to win. The only concern is that all his best races are at Belmont.

#9 Empire of Gold (30/1) – He won’t get as favorable of a trip as he did last time. No thanks.

#10 Yaupon (7/2) – Taking on older males for the first time, this boy will rocket to the front. He has the most upside in the field and could put on a show, but he hasn’t beaten anyone yet. In his first real test at a short price coming in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, the Conductor is leaning against him.

#11 Diamond Oops (8/1) – He’s a very cool, versatile horse that always runs his race. Can he win? Sure, but he’s not a true Grade 1 sprinter.

#12 Hog Creek Hustle (30/1) – He’ll be closing late, but he’s not good enough to get into the exacta.

#13 Jasper Prince (30/1) – A Japanese sprinter with inconsistent form? Pass.

#15 Lasting Legacy (30/1) – It will be tough to work out any sort of trip from here.

Picks: 3 – 8 – 2 – 10

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf Picks and Analysis

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Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf time, Let’s Ride.

Saturday, November 7 – Race 7: 1 3/8 Mile. (Turf) F.G1 Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

#1 Starship Jubilee (10/1) – There are many awesome, gutsy, mares in this group and she is one of them. She beat the boys up at Woodbine last time. She wouldn’t surprise the Conductor, but he prefers others.

*#2 Sistercharlie (6/1) – This mare may have lost a step, but she hasn’t had pace to run at in her two starts this year. With a 14-horse field, she should get a fair chance to win this race again and the Conductor can’t wait to watch her try. If she can go out on top, the Conductor will be part of it, especially at a decent price.

#3 Peaceful (12/1) – This filly is well meant, but she’s coming off a poor effort and this is a lot to ask. The Conductor is against her.

#4 Mean Mary (7/2) – She was very game in defeat in the Diana, but she did have a favorable trip setting a slow pace. The Conductor can’t see her turning the tables on Rushing Fall.

#5 My Sister Nat (12/1) – The Conductor is tossing every runner in here exiting the Flower Bowl. He doesn’t think it was a very strong race.

*#6 Rushing Fall (5/2)

Most of the Conductor’s play will go through this classy mare. She should sit a similar trip today right on Mean Mary’s hip and get first run on the closers.

Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf

#7 Terebellum (20/1) – She showed a nice burst last time, but tired quickly. The Conductor thinks this is too much to ask.

#8 Mucho Unusual (30/1) – This isn’t California turf. No chance.

#9 Harvey’s Lil Goil (20/1) – The Conductor is a fan of this filly, but she gets the acid test today vs older. The Conductor doesn’t think she’s there yet.

#10 Civil Union (12/1) – Flower Bowl? Chuck.

#11 Audarya (12/1) – This is the European the Conductor likes most in here. She’s in good form and is exiting a very tough race where she ran well.

#12 Lady Prancealot (30/1) – No chance

#13 Nay Lady Nay (20/1) – Flower Bowl? Toss.

#14 Cayenne Pepper (8/1) – She ran very well last time with a favorable trip. It will be very hard for her to work out a trip from this post.

Picks: 6 – 2 – 11

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Picks and Analysis

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Racehorse Golden Cents with jockey racing at a horse track, showcasing speed and agility during a competition.

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile time, Skip.

Saturday, November 7 – Race 6: 1 Mile. G1 Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

*#1 Art Collector (6/1) – This is one of the Conductor’s favorite races on Saturday. Almost no horse would shock him, but he has three horses he really likes, and this colt is on top of that list. He had him in the Preakness and he didn’t fire a great effort. However, he had a hiccup before the derby and the Conductor doesn’t think he showed his true self. He likes him cutting back to a sprint and his two bullet works entering Saturday.

breeders' cup dirt mile

#2 Sharp Samurai (15/1) – He seems to run his race and hit the board regardless of distance and surface. He doesn’t like to win though, and the Conductor can’t see it against this group.

*#3 Silver Dust (30/1) – The Conductor will use him underneath at a big number, maaaaybe as a backup on top. He’s another consistent runner and ran well last time with a tough trip. He doesn’t love the winners circle.

#4 War of Will (10/1) – A Grade 1 winner on turf and dirt, he’s a contender in this field but the Conductor is leaning against him. He’s better on turf.

*#5 Knicks Go (7/2) – This colt has become a new animal in the Cox barn (shocker). Setting the record last time, the Conductor sees him burying the other speed horses. He’s a must use.

#6 Mr. Money (20/1) – He ran a big race last time pressing a hot pace. The Conductor just doesn’t think he’s good enough.

#7 Rushie (20/1) – Another last race the Conductor can’t knock and this colt wouldn’t shock the Conductor. However, he doesn’t look fast enough.

#8 Pirate’s Punch (20/1) – The Conductor is a fan of this horse and he has wicked early speed. He is up against the pace scenario in here and the Conductor can’t see him getting a winning trip.

#9 Mr Freeze (6/1) – He was very game last time in the Fayette at the expense of the Conductor.

He can win, but at a short price the Conductor won’t use him. He’ll likely win just to haunt his dreams.

#10 Complexity (2/1) – He is a big play against for the Conductor as the favorite. He’s going to have to deal with a hot pace and in his lone try at two turns he’s still running.

#11 Jesus’ Team (30/1) – This colt nabbed 3rd at 40/1 in the Preakness to light up the tri. He could clunk up for 3rd again, but no better.

*#12 Owendale (8/1) – This is the perfect spot for this colt, shortening in distance and dropping to the back of the back early while the leaders duke it out. His best race came at Keeneland last year and he’s the Conductor’s favorite closer in here.

Picks: 1 – 12 – 5 – 3

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint Picks and Analysis

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Belvoir Bay, a thoroughbred horse, racing at the Breeders Cup with a jockey in pink and white attire, showcasing speed and agility.

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint time, Skip.

Saturday, November 7 – Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

*#1 Big Runnuer (12/1) – Another race we don’t have to go far for the Conductor to get his key. There is not a lot a lot of early speed in here and he should be able to clear the field from the rail. He may be able to steal this open race gate to wire.

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

#2 Just Might (30/1) – He is the only horse that could make it tough on Big Runnuer early. He has early gas, but always seems to fade late.

#3 Imprimis (4/1) – He’s a good gelding, but he got a nice trip last time and doesn’t seem to get the job done against the toughest competition. At a short price, the Conductor is against him.

#4 Front Run the Fed (12/1) – This colt had a tougher trip than Imprimis and was right there. He’ll be a better price, but still isn’t one of the Conductor’s favorites.

#5 Wet Your Whistle (15/1) – He got an easy trip last time and has back class. Again, the Conductor doesn’t like his chances.

#6 Glass Slippers (12/1) – The Conductor doesn’t like the Euros in these sprints typically. He’s torn on this filly as this isn’t the strongest American contingent. She’s a fighter but he thinks this task is likely too much to ask.

#7 Leinster (4/1) – He loves Keeneland and won nicely last time with a perfect trip. He can absolutely win this race but he’s no standout. At a short price the Conductor doesn’t love him.

#8 Oleksandra (12/1) – If you want to watch a mare mow, watch her last race. She has a thunderous late kick. However, the Conductor thinks she’ll be more in the 5/1 race and will be up against it without a hot pace in front of her. The Ductor is leaning against.

#9 Into Mystic (12/1) – She ran too well to lose over this turf course last time without a perfect trip. The Conductor will absolutely use her again especially if she’s around that price.

*#10 Bombard (15/1)

This is the Conductor’s other favorite price in the race. He ran huge setting a hot pace last time and was just nailed at the wire. The shorter distance will help his chances and he has the early speed to put him in a good position early.

Shore bombardment Pt II - GIF on Imgur

#11 Wildman Jack (15/1) – Since the Conductor likes Big Runnuer, he must like this boy. He ran a good 2nd last time with a troubled trip and ran a big race vs Grade 1 company on dirt two back. The concern is that he gets hung wide.

#12 Got Stormy (7/2) – This mare is all class, but the Conductor is against her as the likely favorite. She’ll have to drop to the back of the pack from this post and will have a lot to do to get to the wire first.

#13 Texas Wedge (20/1) – Peter Miller has dominated this race, which scares the Conductor. However, she’s a toss from this post.

#14 Extravagant Kid (15/1) – The Conductor doesn’t see how he can work out a trip from here either.

Picks: 1 – 10 – 12 – 9

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint Picks and Analysis

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A group of horses racing on a dirt track during a competition with jockeys in colorful attire.

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint time, Skip.

Saturday, November 7 – Race 4: 7 Furlongs. F.G1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

*#1 Speech (6/1) – She’s one of the Conductor’s key horses for Saturday. She had a tough trip behind Swiss Skydiver last time. Cutting back to 7 furlongs, her race at Keeneland was her best and she ran right with Gamine at Oaklawn. She looks to get a good trip behind dueling leaders.

breeders' cup filly and mare sprint

#2 Gamine (7/5) – Cutting back to a sprint, this girl is a freak. She’s going to have to duel Serengeti Empress, but the Conductor sees her winning that battle. He’ll toss the Empress and press Gamine.

#3 Come Dancing (8/1) – This old mare is a solid filly and will get a good trip, but the Conductor doesn’t think she’s good enough.

#4 Inthemidstofbiz (30/1) – She’s going to get cooked up close to a hot pace.

#5 Sconsin (20/1) – This filly got a great setup last time and will get another good one here. However, the Conductor doesn’t see her better than 3rd.

#6 Venetian Harbor (8/1) – She needs the lead and isn’t going to get it. She’s a complete toss for the Conductor.

#7 Serengeti Empress (3/1) – She’s a great mare and all guts. If she somehow wins the duel with Gamine and holds on the Conductor will tip his cap.

#8 Sally’s Curlin (20/1) – She’ll be running for 3rd and may be able to get it only if it’s a complete meltdown.

#9 Bell’s the One (6/1) – This is a classy filly and running her best this year. She nailed Serengeti Empress last time with a great trip and looks to get a similar trip again. The Conductor prefers Speech, but she wouldn’t surprise him.

Picks: 1-2-9