Tag: keeneland

Keeneland: Late Pick 5 Key Horses for Friday, October 23

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Damn Conductor, I lost my pinky Wednesday and the rest of my fingers Thursday! Well son, if you don’t have any fingers it’s easier to make a fist. This sport is hard, back in the ring at Keeneland. PS. Baffert being the face of the sport is a disgrace.

keeneland

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 70k

#9 Color of Dawn (1/1) is clearly the most likely winner after just missing in her debut. If your looking for some value, the Conductor likes the #7 Blarney Girl (15/1). Garcia takes the mount for a small barn and trainer Michael Ewing is 14% with a +$2.53 ROI this year with first time starters.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (OFF Turf) F.Alw 71000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #12 Lea’s Princess (10/1) – This girl ran huge last time t Keeneland, pressing a hot pace and just tiring late. Shortening back to 5 ½ furlongs is just what the Conductor wants to see, and the dirt will be no problem.

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Race 8: 7 Furlongs. Clm 40000n2L

#1 Prioritizer (12/1) – 1st off the claim for Bob Hess Jr., this colt was bumped at the start before dueling and fading last time. His maiden breaker two back certainly fits with this group and he has an early pace edge over this field. They’ll send him from the rail and he can slip away at a nice number.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 75000n3x

#7 Complicit (12/1) – This filly was in against Grade 1 company last time and was over matched. In her prior two efforts, she hit the board at big odds and is also shortening up to her best distance today. The Conductor will key her in the trifecta at a juicy number.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 70k

#8 Super Sport (6/1) – She was heavily bet in her debut and showed early speed after a tough start. She’s certainly working well coming into today and the Conductor thinks she’ll show what she’s really made of today.

Keeneland: Late Pick 4 for Wednesday, October 21

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A group of racehorses competing on a dirt track with a large crowd in the background, showcasing the excitement of horse racing events.

Finally we get back to the action. Two days off has the Conductor shaking. The races coming off the turf at Keeneland  is disappointing, but we play the cards we’re dealt. Let’s Ride..

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 40000

#2 Intrepid Heart (5/2) – He’s won his last two starts nicely and is clearly the one to beat. The fact that Pletcher didn’t bump him up in class today at Keeneland does make the Conductor a little nervous.

#5 Mi Tres Por Ciento (4/1) – He stumbled and lost the jock at the start of the last race. However, he was running well vs tougher in all his prior races and gets a big class drop today. He didn’t run poorly last time, he never had a chance. 4/1 would be a great price.

Other Contenders: #1 Jungle Warfare (8/1), #3 Lone Rock (6/1)

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (OFF Turf) F.Alw 73000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Golden Curl (4/1) – She’s much improved routing on the grass in the last two. She looks to get another good trip and her effort last time will win again here. She has the best dirt form of the group and will be forwardly placed in a race without much other pace. 4/1 would be a gift from the pony gods.

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Other Contenders: #5 Naughty Joker (5/1)

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. F.Alw 71000n1x

#1 Impeccable Style (7/2) – She’s pressed hot paces routing in her last few and finally gets the cutback in distance she needs today. Trainer Brendan Walsh is also 24% with a +$1.11 ROI with new horses in the barn this year,

#2 O Seraphina (9/2) – Returning after a long layoff, her races in the spring fit with this group on numbers. With natural maturity she is very dangerous in here for a barn that hits at 21% with a +$0.30 ROI off the bench.

Other Contenders: #8 Never Forget (3/1)

Race 8: 1 3/8 Mile. (OFF Turf) F.Mdn 70k

#1 Captain Ginny B (20/1) – This race is wide open with the race coming off the turf, but this is a bomb the Conductor will absolutely be using if she stays in. She did some running in her debut on turf and is bred to be just as good on turf. Trainer Tim Austin wins with horses like these at big prices. He’s 23% with a +$4.34 ROI with shippers this year.

Graded Stakes Plays at Keeneland and Belmont Park

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A steam locomotive being assembled in a factory with workers present around it.

The late pick 5 paid over 30k yesterday at Keeneland, that would have been nice. The Conductor was happy to have a piece of Sugoi at 23/1 though. That salvaged his day and kept the train filled with coal. Not great cards at Keeneland or Belmont today so the Conductor will take the train out west mainly. He’ll post his Golden Hour Pick 4 at Santa Anita and Golden Gate later. Let’s Ride.

 

Belmont Park:

Race 3: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) G2 Knickerbocker Stakes

#4 En Wye Cee (2/1) – This improving Pletcher colt will only be making his 2nd career start on grass. The other contenders are nothing special in the Conductor’s opinion and there is absolutely no pace I the race. En Wye Cee should be able to dictate the terms on the front end and make them catch him down the stretch.

Keeneland

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) G2 Hill Prince

#7 Buy Land and See (4/1) – Stretching out from a sprint, he’ll have first run when they turn for home. The Conductor likes his works and he’s best going this distance. The exacta will be him and #3 Decorated Invador (1/1). Nothing more, nothing less.

Keeneland:

Race 8: 1½ Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Rood and Riddle Dowager Stakes

#2 Blame Debbie (2/1) – She’s in good form while the others are searching for it. The Conductor like that she’s already won over the Keeneland turf this meet as well.

Keeneland: Raven Run Stakes Late Pick 5

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Two jockeys racing on brown horses during a competitive horse race, showcasing speed and athleticism in the sport.

The Conductor nailed the 7th race yesterday, then there was a head scratcher in the 8th that blew up his tickets. With the questionable weather in New York, the Conductor will do battle with Keeneland again for the Raven Run Stakes. Very competitive fields and great betting opportunities. The Conductor wants the finest cuts of meat still bleeding on his table tonight, not McDonalds. Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. Alw 50000s

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Yankee Seven (10/1) – We haven’t seen this gelding since March, but he’s posting strong works for a barn that hits at 19% clip off the bench. He’s shown versatility and consistency in his young career and if he has matured during his time off, the Conductor can see him surprising the passengers.

Other Contenders: #1 Cool Bobby (2/1), #2 Jessup (5/2)

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. F.Mdn 70k

#6 Mia at Midnight (30/1) – You can make a case for all in here with many 1st time starters. The Conductor will include this bomb shipping in from Woodbine. She was green in her debut and was ridden like it was a prep. She has nice works coming into today.

Other Contenders: #2 Hippie Cowgirl (5/1), #4 Miss Dial (6/1), #10 Wicked Bisou (4/1), #11 Thinking (9/2)

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Alw 75000n3x

#7 Corelli (5/1) – The Conductor will throw out her last race over soft turf. Her 3rd two back at Monmouth vs Grade 1 company beats this field.

raven run stakes

Other Contenders: #6 Bizzee Channel (15/1), #12 Sugoi (12/1) – Both are dangerous if left alone on the front end.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. F.G2 Raven Run Stakes

This is a hell of a race as well. #2 Four Graces (5/2) and #5 Venetian Harbor (7/5) are obvious contenders, but there look to be many live prices as well.

#8 Fair Maiden (15/1) – This filly ran a huge late pace figure in her win last race. That was her first race of the year and also her first ever race on dirt. She showed she could run against Grade 1 company on turf last year and the Conductor loves her upside 2nd off the layoff.

#10 Secret Keeper (12/1) – A west coast dirt horse shipping east and cutting back to a sprint, the Conductor must use her. She’s beaten some nice Baffert horses sprinting and has talent.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 20000n2L

#9 El Supremo (7/2) – The Conductor doesn’t have a strong opinion in the finale. He was up close to a hot pace last time and is dropping in class today.

Other Contenders: #1 Why Why Paul Why (5/1), Quarterback Dak (5/2), #10 Czechmight (6/1)

Keeneland: Pin Oak Valley View Stakes Late Pick 4

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A lineup of thoroughbred racehorses at the starting gate at Keeneland, featuring jockeys in colorful silks ready for the race.

The 45/1 shot in the 6th at Keeneland Thursday has the Conductor kicking himself. Elie Z had enough early gas to make the lead on paper, which is always dangerous in a turf sprint. Hopefully a few of you passengers hit a nice exacta or trifecta in the Sycamore Stakes however, with #1 Postulation running 2nd at 7/1. Friday is finally here, time to mix in a little more stew to our pony diet today. Let’s ride.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 73000n2x

#7 High Crime (8/1) – This colt’s early pace figures are off the charts and he’ll be on the lead early. Shortening back to 5 ½ furlongs will help his chances.

Other Contenders: #2 Power End (10/1), #9 Explorer (5/2), #11 Competitive Saint (7/2)

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. OC 150000n4x

#6 Admiral Lynch (2/1) – Dropping in class 2nd off the layoff, his race at Saratoga two back gets the job done here.

#4 Seven Nation Army (12/1) – He ran a very strong race last time, pressing a hot pace wide around the track. He’s improving is 3rd off the layoff and has good early speed.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Pin Oak Valley View Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #10 Outburst (20/1) – Stretching out 3rd off the layoff, she’s a Grade 3 winner, which many of these contenders can’t claim. She looks to be sitting on a big effort at a massive price.

Keeneland

Other Contenders: #1 Duolpoly (9/2), #11 Stunning Sky (7/2), #12 Antoinette (5/2)

Race 9: 6½ Furlongs. F.Clm 20000n2L

#8 Veiled Vixen (5/1) – Dropping in class at Keeneland off a long layoff, she’s working well and will beat this field. If she runs her race, she ins for fun.

Other Contenders: #3 Ms. Malevolence (5/1), #5 Competitive Fire (15/1)

Keeneland: Sycamore Stakes Pick 3 for Thursday, October 15

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A horse with the number 12 on its saddle walking in front of a crowd at Keeneland Racecourse.

A nice 9/2 winner on top in the 7th and late pick 4 that paid $334.10 for 50 cents is what the passengers ordered on Wednesday, and that’s what the Conductor delivered. As a happy passenger myself, I’ll certainly buy multiple t-shirts at the train station right away! Sycamore Stakes time, Let’s Ride.

The Good Ductor never settles, however. Keeneland is calling again, Let’s Ride.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 73000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Yes Its Ginger (10/1) – She presses a scorching pace and tired over a demanding Kentucky Downs turf course last time. Shortening back to 5 ½ furlongs today, her early gas will be more dangerous and she’s working like a rocket.

sycamore stakes

Other Contenders: #10 Violenza (5/1)

Race 7: 1 3/16 Mile. Alw 71000n1x

The Conductor thinks Ian Wilkes has a major chance to get off the schneid at Keeneland in this race with two live runners in here.

#1 Don Bourbon (9/2) – 2nd off the layoff today, he ran very well last race to finish 2nd with a troubled trip. The added distance will help him here and he’ll be in a good spot early up close to a slow pace.

#5 Letmeno (4/1) – He stumbled at the break and lost all chance last time. 2nd off the layoff today, the Conductor want to see the tactics used to cross the wire first in the Iowa Derby two back. Go right to the front in a race devoid of pace.

Other Contenders: #9 Spa City (7/2)

Race 8: 1½ Mile. (Turf) G3 Sycamore Stakes

#10 Ziyad (5/2) – His European form lays over this Grade 3 American field. 1st time Lasix for Motion, he’ll be very tough to beat. However, the Conductor likes two prices to include underneath

#1 Postulation (15/1) – Throw out his last race over soft turf last time and this old man fits with this group. He nearly wired the field two back against tougher over this turf course and has good tactical speed.

#5 Big Agenda (10/1) – The “Other Maker” in here, he unsurprisingly has taken big steps forward in the new barn. Winner of his last two, he will be forwardly placed and trending in the right direction.

Other Contenders: #2 Red Night (3/1), #6 Aquaphobia (5/2)

Keeneland: Late Pick 4 for Wednesday, October 14

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A thrilling horse race featuring multiple jockeys in colorful silks on a dirt track, with a large crowd in the background.

Only one day of rest for the Conductor as Keeneland comes back today. He missed that 13/1 shot to start the late pick 4 at Belmont Monday, but hopefully some passengers cashed on the late double that paid 24/1. Small fields in the early races at Keeneland, so the Conductor will look toward the latter half of the card. Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 70k

#5 Take Charge Ro (3/1) – The Conductor sees this as a chalky maiden race. None of the first-time starters catch his eye other than the Cox runner. This filly is coming off a long layoff, but working well for a quality barn and her last race makes her clearly the one to beat in here.

Other Contenders: #4 Santa Guapa (5/2)

Race 6: 6½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 70k

*Double Barreled Buckshot #4 Chewy Chewy Good (12/1) – She made a nice early wide move before flattening down the lane last time. 3rd off the layoff and shortening ½ furlong today, the Conductor sees her taking a big step forward.

#7 April in Paris (8/1) – She tired after setting the pace off a layoff last time. The shorter distance and extra fitness will help her here and she showed ability in the summer.

keeneland

Other Contenders: #1 Dovima (5/2), #2 Motown Girl (8/1), #3 Movie Moxie (3/1), #8 Here Comes Josie (15/1)

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 100000n2x

#9 Regal Beauty (10/1) – This is a very competitive field and a great betting race. This filly is steadily progressing in the Calhoun barn and the Conductor sees her being even better shortening to 6 furlongs. Doubt we’ll get 10/1 but she still should be a good price.

Other Contenders: #4 Lexi On the Move (7/2), #5 Charming Lady (4/1), #8 Purrfectly Claire (9/2)

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. MC 15000

#7 Oak Room (5/1) – Another difficult race with many big class droppers, the Conductor will land on this colt. He showed some ability in his debut and has been well bet in every start. Trainer Ron Moquett is 31% with a +$1.38 ROI dropping horses 2+ classes this year.

Other Contenders: #6 Champers (4/1), #8 Continental Clash (6/1)

Belmont and Keeneland: Graded Stakes Picks October 10

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A gray racehorse with a jockey wearing a purple helmet and green and white silks racing on a dirt track.

Not great at Belmont yesterday, but the Conductor started seeing the ball well at Keeneland and was able to get a few body shots in. The tracks can only defend themselves for so long, plenty of quality racing today. Let’s Ride.

Belmont Park:

Race 4: 1 Mile. C1 Champagne Stakes

#5 Reinvestment Risk (8/5) – This colt ran behind #4 Jackie’s Warrior (3/5) last time, but the Conductor thinks he can turn the tables. He’s bred to go longer and the extra furlong today will help his cause.

Race 5: 1 Mile. F.Frizette-G1 Frizette Stakes

The Conductor prefers #1 Vequist (2/1) over the #2 Cantata (9/5). Vequist has been tested by winners and gutted them like a fish.

#6 Get On the Bus (20/1) – A bomb that the Conductor will use underneath, this filly looks to get a nice trip with a hot pace to close into. She should improve on the stretch-out and O’neil clearly thinks highly of her, throwing her into graded stakes right away.

Keeneland

Race 8: 1 ¼ Mile (Turf) G1 Flower Bowl

#1 Cambier Parc (5/2) – The Conductor has always been a fan of this filly. 2nd off the layoff for Chad she’s the one to beat.

#4 La Signare (8/1) – She’s been facing tougher competition than this group and has run well despite not getting into the winner’s circle. At a nice price in a small field the Conductor will include her.

Race 9: 1 ¼ Mile. G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes

#4 Tacitus (1/1) – This isn’t a great betting race, but Tacitus should destroy this field (tell me if you’ve heard that before). He’s let people down enough times that he may be a higher price than he should. The Conductor will take anything over even money.

Race 10: 1 Mile (Turf) G2 Sands Point

This looks like another chalky race to the Conductor. #1 Tamahere (5/2) will be is top pick, but #3 Selflessly and #5 Miss J McKay (7/2) are the only other winning contenders and he doesn’t have a strong opinion.

Keeneland:

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. G2 Hagyard Fayette Stakes

Now this is a good gambling race and the Conductor likes some prices.

*Double Barreled Buckshot #1 Coastal Defense (6/1) – This colt continues to steadily progress and improve the further he runs. He can put himself in a good spot early and wont tire.

#10 Aurelius Maximus (10/1) – This colt was well meant as a baby and has struggled to stay on the racetrack. He looked very good in his comeback win off a break last time and looks to be sitting on a big one 2nd off the layoff.

Keeneland

The Conductor will mainly be using those two, but #4 Mirinaque (15/1) is an intriguing bomb that he will use a little bit as well. He was ultra-consistent in Argentina on both turf and dirt and against massive fields. His only race in the states was behind Maximum Security and he didn’t show his best that day. He’s a wildcard that will be a huge number.

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.G1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup S

#4 Magic Attitude (5/2) – This filly looked smooth as silk in her first start in the US last time. The Conductor thinks she’ll be very tough to beat.

#6 Hendy Woods (10/1) – She was checked hard in her last start and was still able to run 2nd behind Sharing, who would be favored in here. She’ll be a nice price and take a big step forward with a clean trip.

#1 Harvey’s Little Goyle (3/1) – The Conductor has been impressed by her versatility at Keeneland and the shorter distance will help her today.

Keeneland: Spot Plays for Friday, October 9

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A group of jockeys riding horses during a race at Keeneland, with trees in bloom in the background.

The Conductor is going to shorten up on Keeneland today. He’ll focus on the higher quality races. Let’s Ride.

 

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. OC 80000n3x

Doubled Barreled Buckshot Play of the Day #6 Lasting Legacy (9/2) – This is a very competitive field and a great betting race. This horse crossed the wire 1st last time off a short break and looks primed to run his best 2nd off the layoff. He has class in his form lines and hasn’t run a bad race in the last two years. He’ll have good early position as well.

#7 Rubus (12/1) – This gelding has progressed in each of his 4 starts this year and is exiting a nice victory at Churchill Downs. He gets back to Keeneland, where he does his best running and is in the best form of his career.

Keeneland

Race 9: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Buffalo Trace Franklin County Stakes

#2 Into Mystic (6/1) – #10 Got Stormy (6/5) is clearly the one to beat, but this will be her first time going this short of a distance. The distance was too long for Into Mystic last time. However, she will shorten up to her preferred 5 ½ furlongs today. She has good early speed and will be able to get the jump on Got Stormy turning for home. Whether Got Stormy runs her down her not will be up to the pony gods, but it is a simple exacta either way.

Keeneland: Key Horses for Thursday, October 8

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A group of jockeys riding horses during a race at a crowded racetrack.

Thank the Pony Gods for that one, Aunt Pearl looks like the real deal. Keeneland is a fickle beast and the Conductor was whiffing by miles Wednesday. He’ll be more selective Thursday, focus on the higher quality races and bet with both fists. Skip.

 

Race 3: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 70k

*Double Barreled Buckshot #7 Flutiste (5/1) – Going two sprints to a route for Motion, this filly ran a good 3rd last time at Kentucky Downs and the Conductor sees her improving with the added distance and race experience. Speed and Kentucky Downs shippers have been running well on the turf so far this meet.

#4 Mummy Dearest (8/1) – This filly ran decent in her debut behind Flutiste and will also be stretching out for the first time. Trainer Michael Ewing is 7/17 with a +$1.56 ROI with horses routing for the first time this year.

keeneland

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 100000n2x

#5 Sonneman (8/5) – This colt is steadily progressing in the Assmusen barn and is dropping out of graded stakes competition. His class should be too much for this group.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. MC 75000

#4 Ghost Fighter (5/1) – Switching back to dirt 2nd off the layoff, this colt is exiting a key race at Kentucky Downs and showed ability on dirt last year. He adds blinkers today as well.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Mdn 70k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #11 Sovereign Appeal (10/1) – This filly had a tough trip last time at Keeneland and throw out her race on grass two back. She ran a very good 2nd at Churchill in July and will stretch-out with blinkers for the first time today. The Conductor loves her upside at a big price.

keeneland

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 78000

#6 Spectacular (3/1) – Dropping out of Grade 1 company, he was up close to a hot pace last time. He should be able to dictate the pace against a weaker field here and wire them.

#9 Monarch’s Glen (10/1) – Use him underneath in the exacta and trifecta. Ignore his last race on a sloppy track and look at his 2nd behind Grade 1 winner Digital Age two back.