Tag: saratoga picks

Ponies

The Conductor’s Wednesday Preview at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

Best bet of the day came home at 9/2 yesterday, which made for a positive Sunday. New week ahead, time to get into capping lab and prepare for glory. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: Hurdle Race

Race 2: 7 Furlongs. S.Mdn

#1 Freaky Styley (8/1) – Trainer Jorge Abreu is hitting at a 28% clip with a +$1.80 ROI this year with debut runners at this level.  This colt is working well, gets Rosario in the irons, and his sire is winning at a 16% rate with 1st timers.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.S.Mdn 78k

#2 Jen’s Battle (4/1) – Well bet in her debut for a low % barn, she stretches out to a route and moves to the grass for the first time. Her breeding suggests she’ll improve on the lawn.

#5 Mazal Eighteen (10/1) – Well-bred for the grass and 220k at auction, the Carmouche/Gargan jockey/trainer combo have been red hot to start the Saratoga meet.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) OC 80000n3x

*Never a Doubt Chad Brown Lock of the Day #2 Annals of Time (4/5) – She’s a standout in this group.

horse GIF

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. Clm 35000n3L

#1 Surface Strike (9/2) – He won nicely from the rail last start and a repeat effort gives him every chance.

Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 90k

#10 Chimney Rock (6/1) – This colt showed good early speed in his debut in a race taken off the turf. He’ll step forward on the grass.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) S. New York Stallion Stakes 150k

#5 Blindwillie McTell (4/1) – If he stays at or above that price, he’s a play for the Conductor. His figures on dirt tower over this field and trainer Linda Rice is very adept at switching horses over to turf.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. G2 Honorable Miss Handicap

#4 Mia Mischeif (7/5) – This filly has become legit this year.

Race 9: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.OC 62500b

#2 Victorias Fire (15/1) – This old mare is unproven on a firm turf course, but she loves to win and is extremely quick early. The Conductor thinks she’s dangerous at a big number.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. F.Alw 92000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #10 Private Beach (10/1) – Cutting back to a sprint after setting a scorching pace last time vs Dunbar Roade, the Conductor loves her.

happy eddie murphy GIF

#3 Risky Mandate (7/2) – Her blowout win in her debut was ultra-impressive.

Advertisements
Ponies, Videos

Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

13 race card today at Saratoga with the cancellation yesterday. The Conductor is ready for war. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: Hurdle Race, pick your favorite color.

Race 2: 7 Furlongs. Clm 16000n2L

#7 Heyitsnricopalazo (12/1) – 2nd off the layoff, this gelding has the best early pace figures in the field in a sprint without much pace. The Conductor loves him.

Race 3: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) MC 65000

#9 Value Engineering (1/1) – Clearly the one to beat, the Conductor will use #2 Skywriting (6/1) and #5 Crypto Gold (12/1) in the exacta. Both 1st off the claim for Linda Rice.

Race 4: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G1 Coaching Club American Oaks

#5 Point of Honor (7/2) – Her win last time in the Black-Eyed Susan was legit, closing into a slow pace. She’s proven at the distance while the heavy favorite #1 Guarana (2/5) isn’t. Guarana looks like a super filly, but the Conductor is a skeptical man.

Race 5: 1 1/8 Mile. Mdn 90k

*Never a Doubt Best Bet of the Day #4 Scars Are Cool (6/1) – Favored at Churchill last time, he ran well closing into a slow pace. The added distance will be his friend.

dcuedit GIF

 

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Clm 30000n2L

#12 Kinky Sox (10/1) – She showed ability at Saratoga in 2017 and has run well at Tampa in her return to the races this year.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 90k

#7 Mom’s Pass (4/1) – Drawn well, if she runs the same race as last time, she’ll be tough to beat.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 90k

#3 Yankee Empire (6/1) – He was very rank in his debut and still ran well. With some experience and natural progression, he’ll have every chance.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) Alw 92000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 King Cause (8/1) – He stepped forward when he tried turf for the first time two starts back and had no chance trying to close into a tepid pace last time. With low % connections his price will only go higher, the Conductor will key him in the exacta and trifecta.

horses GIF

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. OC 62500n2x

#8 Borracho (7/2) – This son of Uncle Mo was flying late in the Woody Stephens. He looks to get a good setup again today.

Race 11: 5 ½ Furlongs (Turf) F.Caress Stakes

#3 Fire Key (5/1) – This mare has a chance to wire the field. She shortens in distance today and has wicked early pace figures.

Race 12: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.Alw 80000n1x

#11 Bad Guy (6/1) – Dropping back to state bred competition, he’s run well in all three of his career starts on turf. He should have been running on the lawn all along.

Race 13: 1 1/8 Mile. F.G3 Shuvee Stakes

#1 She’s a Julie (2/1) – 3rd off the layoff, she has recency over the favorite #5 Wow Cat (9/5). She’s also exiting the toughest last race in the field having faced Elate last time.

 

Ponies, Videos

Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor still has no feel for Saratoga, but he still has some money to play with today! With the extreme heat forecast for this weekend and Saturday racing canceled, it is imperative for the Conductor to score today. Now that we got away with chasing, time to press! Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 7 Furlongs. S.MC 25000

#7 Therisastormbrewin (8/1) – Dropping in class, 1st time gelding and adding blinkers, the ultimate equipment change is always dangerous.

Race 2: 7 Furlongs. F.Clm 25000

#5 Queen Kahen (6/1) – She’s working well 2nd off the claim for Linda Rice. Linda is 22% with a +$0.17 ROI switching horses from turf to dirt this year.

Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.Mdn 78k

#1 Dearly Declared (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she’s shown some very quick early pace figures and will appreciate the shorter distance. With the poor rail draw the Conductor sees her price floating up.

Race 4: 7 Furlongs. Clm 20000

#5 Getoffmyback (5/1) – 2nd off the layoff and shipping in from Churchill, he looks to get a perfect trip on or near a slow pace.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 90k

#7 Mrs. Danvers (7/2) – This filly is working well by all counts and Rosario hops aboard.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 50000s

#2 Willing to Speed (6/1) – He’s the best turf horse of the bunch in the Conductor’s eyes. However, he does have a case of 2nditus. The Conductor thinks the switch to Irad will get him over the hump.

Race 7: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) OC 62500n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Midnight Tea Time (10/1) – 2nd off the layoff, his last two races have been rained off the turf. He gets back to his preferred surface today and is a very consistent runner. The Conductor will key him in the exacta and trifecta.

kevin malone GIF

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. OC 80000n3x

#4 Honorable Treasure (12/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he won nicely last start in his return to the races. His figures fit, and he looks to get a nice setup with a hot pace to run at today.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Lake George Stakes

#7 Blowout (2/1) – 4 horse field with 3 Chad Brown runners? What a joke of a betting race.

Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. MC 40000

*Never a Doubt Friday Stew Best Bet of the Day #1 Goose Drank Wine (8/1) – Working well 3rd off the layoff, he has the best late pace figures in the field. The added distance will suit him nicely.

wine GIF

Ponies

Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Plays at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

The rain came and off the turf made Saratoga unplayable yesterday. The forecast says its going to hold off today, so the Conductor capped as such. If the races come off, the Conductor won’t play with the small fields (He probably still will). At Del Mar, the Conductor’s 5/2 lock of the day was victorious, but his price horses are still haven’t finished.  Now excuse the Conductor as he goes to play in a scramble. Fore! Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 7 Furlongs. Alw 60000n1x

#6 After You (7/2) – The California sprinters are always dangerous coming to the east coast.

Race 2: 5½ Furlongs. Mdn 75k

#6 Justintimeforwine (5/1) – Making his 2nd career start, he was well bet in his debut and had some trouble early. Rosario isn’t jumping off, so neither will the Conductor.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. F.S. 100K Stillwater Stakes

#3 Fierce Lady (1/2) – Her debut was dominant.

Race 4: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) OC 25000n1x

#3 Channel Island (10/1) – This colt will have no problem getting the distance and the Conductor loved his fight last time, sticking his neck out to give the Conductor some loot.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.Mdn 78k

#4 Barleewon (5/2) – Rosario hops aboard for a 20% debut turf winning trainer. The Conductor also likes this colt’s work tab.

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile (Turf) F.Mdn 90k

*Never a Doubt Chad Brown Lock of the Day #4 Smooth With a Kick (8/5) – The Conductor loves a nice kick.

Image result for strong drink gif

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.MC 40000

#8 Capt Courageous (8/1) – Castellano hops aboard for a barn he rarely rides for and trainer Jorge Abreu is 25% with a +$0.08 ROI with 2nd time starters this year.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) OC 80000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Shootin the Breeze (8/1) – He keeps getting slow paces to close into, he looks to get a fair setup today and will appreciate the added distance.

Related image

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. OC 62500n2x

#7 Flowers For Lisa (5/1) – 2nd off the layoff, this old man has an early pace edge over the field and can carry his speed a long way. He’s won 4 of his last 7 and is proven at the distance.

Race 10: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.OC 40000n2x

#3 High Jingo (4/1) – Shortening back to 5 ½ furlongs 3rd off the the layoff, her early pace figures are lightening.

 

Ponies

Wind Pipe Whack Wednesday: The Conductor’s Plays at Saratoga and Del Mar

The Conductor's Scribe

Looks like there is rain in the forecast for Saratoga, but the races remain on the turf as of now. From 12:50 pm ET until about 10pm ET when the West Coast wraps up, the Conductor’s face will be an inch away from the screen watching the ponies run. His eyes will be bleeding, but he will love every second of it. Let’s Ride.

Full Card Top Picks at Saratoga: The Conductor’s Wednesday Preview at Saratoga

Spot Plays:

Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

Daily Doubles: (9 / 2), (1 / 2)

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 90k

Exactas: (6,9 / 7), (7 / 6,9) The Conductor’s Opening Day Plays at Del Mar

Daily Double: (7 / 7)

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. F.Clm 100000

Daily Double: (7 / 2)

Image result for thoroughbred gif

Full Card Top Picks at Del Mar: The Conductor’s Opening Day Plays at Del Mar

Spot Plays:

Race 7: 5 Furlongs. F.S.Mdn 61k

Pick 3: (3 / 1,2,3,4,8 / 6)

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) Runhappy Oceanside Stakes 100k

Exactas: (2 / 1,3,4,8), (1,3,4,8 / 2)

Trifectas: (2 / 1,3,4,8 / All), (2 / All / 1,3,4,8), (1,3,4,8 / 2 / All), (1,3,4,8 / All / 2)

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. OC 40000n1x

Exactas: (6 / 2,3,4,9,11), (2,3,4,9,11 / 6)

Trifectas: (6 / 2,3,4 / All), (6 / All / 2,3,4), (2,3,4,9,11 / 6 / All), (2,3,4,9,11 / All / 6)

Image result for beach horses gif

 

Ponies

The Conductor’s Wednesday Preview at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

Solid Sunday for the Conductor as his lock and gullet shot of the day found themselves in the winner’s circle. We made a little money back from a poor opening week at Saratoga and now we must keep up the momentum. With Del Mar opening on Wednesday, the Conductor will have his full card top picks for both Toga and Del Mar thru the rest of the meets. His generosity knows no bounds. The racing summer is upon us, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: Jumper Race – Pass

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. S. Rick Violette Stakes 100k

#3 Mission Wrapitup (7/5) – His debut blowout win was very impressive.

Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

#9 Fully Vested (2/1) – 2nd off the layoff, this gelding ran a very good 2nd last time in his first try on turf.  He has serious early pace figures on dirt as well.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) Clm 40000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Hope Again (9/2) – 3rd off the layoff, he’s steadily progressing and won easily last start. Those are the types of runners the Conductor likes stepping up in class.

kenny rogers baseball GIF

Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 75k

#8 Devils Rendezvous (10/1) – This filly is working well, and her sire is winning at a 22% clip with 1st timers. The Conductor likes that Rosario hops aboard.

Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Clm 30000n2L

#2 Avacado Toast (6/1) – She’s lightly raced and trending in the right direction. She also gets a small weight break.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 90k

#7 Embellisher (5/1) – The two Chad Brown runners (6,9) are the ones to beat, but the Conductor will key this boy in the exacta. In his first start on turf last time, he set a hot pace and held on for a good 3rd. He gets a rider switch to Leparoux, who is very adept at rating speed horses on the front end.

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. F.Clm 100000

*Never a Doubt Chad Brown Lock of the Day #7 Break Curfew (5/2) – This filly is very quick and has an early pace advantage over this group. Gate to wire.

frustrated frustration GIF

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 62500n2x

#2 Carrera Cat (5/1) – 3rd off the layoff, this is another front-running filly the Conductor likes. Winner of four in a row, she’s has a chance to run them off their feet.

Race 10: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S. Mdn 78k

#3 Light in the Sky (9/2) – She’s well-bred for the turf and the jockey/trainer combo of Jose Ortiz/Linda Rice has been very good lately.

Ponies

Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

120k Pick 6 Carryover today, the Conductor just wants a pick 1 at this point. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Mdn 90k

#4 Pearlescent (6/1) – Mott’s debut runners haven been running very well as of late and he’s at his best sending them out in turf routes.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs. Clm 25000n2L

#8 Elios Milos (9/2) – 2nd off the layoff, he’s lightly raced and has prior form that can beat this group.

Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.Mdn 78k

#3 Wild William (8/1) – The lone 4-year-old in the group, he has a year of maturity on them and quick early pace figures.

Race 4: 5 ½ Furlongs. S.Mdn 78k

#8 No Salt (3/1) – This colt is working like he’s the goods by all counts.

Rave 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Clm 40000

#8 Positive Skew (6/5) – Chad Brown Chalk.

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.S.Alw 80000n1x

#1A Lady Love (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she ran very well last time closing into a slow pace. She’ll be right there at the wire with a natural step forward.

Race 7: 6½ Furlongs. S.OC 40000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 T Loves a Fight (6/1) – Stepping up in class, he’s won two and a row and is running figures that make him competitive a at this level. He should get a perfect stalking trip behind a hot pace.

feeling neck skin GIF

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.OC 80000n1x

#9 Stellar Agent (6/1) – Stretching back out to a route, this filly flashed talent as a two-year-old. She looks to get a good trip in this spot, on or near a slow pace.

Race 9: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) – F.G3 Coronation Cup

*Never a Doubt Sunday Lock From God #4 Break Even (2/1) – This filly looks like a clear standout to the Conductor, she can scoot.

Image result for walking on water gif

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. MC 20000

#9 Go Get That (15/1) – Making just this third career start, the Conductor liked his improvement last race and sees him taking another step forward today.

Ponies, Videos

Esophagus Slice Saturday: The Conductor’s Plays at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

The Conductor is in a nice hole to start the meet and that’s just the way he likes it. Back against the wall waking up with the cold sweats in the middle of the night. It tightens the brain and sharpens his capping. The first Saturday of the Saratoga meet, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 7 Furlongs. F.Clm 16000n2L

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Magical Justice (10/1) – #10 She’s Not Bluffing (5/2) is the one to beat, but this filly is the price horse the conductor likes. She’s steadily progressing, has good early speed, and will be ignored shipping in from Thistledowns.

blood beheading GIF by History UK

Race 2: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.MC 40000

#2 Prisoner’s Dilemma (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff and dropping to the claiming ranks for the 1st time she’s very logical.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs. G3 Stanford Stakes

#2 Raging Whiskey (5/2) – How cant the Conductor play him with a name like that?

Race 4: 5½ Furlongs. Mdn 90k

#1 High Tide (3/1) – Pletcher hasn’t been winning with these two-year old’s, the Conductor will give him one more chance here.

Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 92000n1x

#8 Catch a Thrill (9/2) – She caught a yielding turf course and stretching out vs Grade 2 competition last start. Her two grass sprints make her the one to beat in the Conductor’s opinion.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 90k

#2 Decorated Invader (4/1) – This 200k son of Declaration of War is bred to love the lawn for strong connections.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. S.Alw 80000n1x

#7 Lutsky (9/2) – 1st time for Navarro, he posses past performances that can beat this field.  The barn switch gives him a major chance.

Race 8: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 90k

#7 First Wave (4/1) – Drawn well to the outside making her 2nd career start, Rusty Arnold trainees always take big step forwards.

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) G1 Diana Stakes

#6 Homerique (5/2) – Which Chad Brown runner is going to win? The Conductor loves her late punch.

Race 10: 7 Furlongs. Alw 92000n2x

*Never a Doubt Saturday Beach Trip Lock of the Day #5 Payne (6/5) – Looks like the chalk to the Conductor.

beach running GIF

Race 11: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) Clm 25000

#2 Shalako (10/1) – 3rd off the layoff and dropping in class, he’s pressed hot paces vs tougher in his last two starts. He also shortens 1/16 of a mile.

Ponies, Videos

Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

Not a great start to the meet, but the Guillo 1st time starter in race 5 kept us afloat. Off the turf again today except for races 3 and 9. Time to hop back in the saddle, Let’s Ride.

Race 1 1 1/8 Mile. MC 20000

#3 Derby Memories (6/1) – 2nd off the long layoff, he’s lightly raced, drops in class and returns to dirt where he showed speed in his debut. He also posted a nice work leading into today.

Race 2: 1 1/8 Mile. (OFF Turf) S.Mdn 78k

#13 Daddy Knows (1/1) – The lone MTO runner for Linda Rice, he looks tough to beat.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.OC 62500n2x

#5 Ferdinanda (7/2) – She looks to get a perfect stalking trip sitting behind a hot pace. The Conductor’s only concern is her affinity to run 2nd. He’ll key her in the exacta.

Race 4: 7 Furlongs. Clm 12500

#3 Soul P Say (7/2) – Cutting back to a sprint should hit him right between the eyes.

Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 90k

#4 Lotta Ott (3/1) – Well-bred, she has a very nice work tab at Keeneland. Her sire wins at a 38% clip with 1st time starters.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (OFF Turf) Clm 50000

#2 Heavy Roller (10/1) – This gelding drops in for a tag and has very strong performances on good sloppy dirt tracks.

Race 7: 5 ½ Furlongs. (OFF Turf) F.S.Alw 80000n1x

#9 Filly Dilly (4/1) – Her debut got taken off the turf as well and she slaughtered the field.

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. S.OC 25000n1x

*Never a Doubt Friday Night Bottle Service Best Bet of the Day #2 Dreamzapper (3/1) – Dropping out of open company and shipping in from Churchill, he looks primed for a big effort.

dance party GIF

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) G3 Forbidden Apple Stakes

#3 Hembree (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he ran a thunderous late pace figure in the Poker, closing into a slow pace. He’s a G2 winner and always runs well at this distance.

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Quarbaan (6/1) – He’s the one the Conductor likes most in here. Dropping out of G1 company and shortening back in distance, the Conductor is salivating at that price.

joey chestnut eating GIF by ESPN

Race 10: 5 ½ Furlongs. (OFF Turf) F.S.MC 40000

#2 Fight Night (9/2) – Making her 2nd start of the year, she has good early speed and is cutting back in distance.

Spot Play of the Day

Race 7: Daily Double 2,3 / 3,8

Ponies

Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Spot Plays at Saratoga

The Conductor's Scribe

Stupid thunderstorms why can’t everything go smoothly one time. Hopefully they hold off and we stay on the turf, either way we play the cards we’re dealt. We’re still on the turf for now and the Conductor is locked in and ready for battle.

Just remember passengers it’s the first day, we don’t know how the track is playing or the different angles and trends that are working.  So, should take it slow Mr. Conductor? LOL, time to throttle it! Let’s Ride.

Image result for throttle gif

Full Card Top Selections Here: The Conductor’s Opening Day Plays at Saratoga

Spot Plays

Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs. (Turf) Mdn 90k

Exactas: (2,3,12 / 1), (1 / 2,3,12), (1,3 / 2,12), (2,12 / 1,3)

Trifectas: (2,3,12 / 1 / All ), (2,3,12 / All / 1), (1 / 2,3,12 / All), (1 / All / 2,3,12)

Doubles: (2,3,12 / 7), (1 / 1,6,7), (1,2,3,12 / 1,7 )

Race 7: 1 /18 Mile. (Turf) F.S.OC 40000n2x

Doubles (If on the Turf): (1,3,4,5,6,10,11 / 3), (3,10,11 / 3,5)

Pick 4’s: (1,3,4,5,6,10,11 / 3 / All / 4,7,8,9), (3,10,11 / 1,3,5 / 1,2,4,10 / 4,9)