saratoga Archives - Page 4 of 12 - The Conductor's Scroll

Saratoga Saturday Picks — Vanderbilt Handicap Day (July 27, 2024) | Best Bets & Analysis

on July 27, 2024April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

Detailed vintage steam locomotive model showcasing intricate design and craftsmanship, ideal for collectors and enthusiasts of model trains.

Finally a gullet shot winner Friday at Saratoga. The train got the coal injection it needed heading into the weekend. Time to pounce.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. G1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap

#5 Subrogate (7/2) – The Conductor likes this colt’s steady progression. He has improved with each start as a 3-year-old and looks ready to step up in class and take on graded stakes company. Subrogate looks to get an ideal trip sitting just behind a contested pace, and the Conductor is fading the favorite, #6 Skelly (6/5). Skelly has done all his damage at Oaklawn and lost last time at 2/5 when he shipped to Churchill. That race was also versus a weaker group than he faces today.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

*Double Barreled Gullet Shots #3 Mac to Moore (12/1) – The Conductor likes two prices in this competitive maiden race. This filly’s best race came in her debut sprinting on the turf at Gulfstream. Her next two starts were on synthetic and then the slop. Now 2nd off the layoff, she finally returns to sprinting on the turf and gets a favorable post. If she improves at all from her debut, she is a major contender in here.

#6 Satin Blue (10/1) – This filly was well bet in her turf starts last year and didn’t run great with some excuses. Then last time in a race taken off the turf, she showed major improvement closing for 2nd behind a slow pace going 5-furlongs. That was a big step forward from her prior dirt races and now she gets back to the turf like Joe Sharp wants. With 152 starters going dirt to turf this year, Sharp is 25% with a juicy +$0.91 ROI.

Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. G2 Jim Dandy Stakes

#6 Fierceness (9/5) – Fierceness finally returns after flopping in the Kentucky Derby. He’s a fickle horse but has the most talent in the field. He’s faster then #1 Sierra Leone (1/1) when he runs his best and he should get a better trip than Sierra Leone today over a speed favoring Saratoga dirt course. The Conductor doesn’t think Fierceness needs the lead like many others do. There is other speed to his inside in this race and if Johnny V is patient and sits just behind the leaders, Fierceness will be in the perfect spot. Hopefully all the money he burned in the Derby inflates his price for the Conductor today.

Saratoga Friday Picks — July 26, 2024 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

on July 26, 2024April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

A vintage bus driver in uniform, seated inside a bus, showcasing a thoughtful expression and classic attire.

Dancing Macabre get nailed at the wire Thursday at Saratoga and rips out the Conductor’s soul. If the winners don’t come soon, the Conductor is going to switch to monopoly. Skip.

Race 1: 1 Mile. Clm 16000

#3 Afternoon Heat (10/1) – 2nd off the claim for Jacobson, this gelding exits a game 2nd sprinting at Monmouth last time. Now he adds blinkers and stretches out to a mile. In a race without much early speed, Afternoon Heat will get a favorable trip either on the lead or up close to the pace. Versus a weak field, his speed is extra dangerous.

Race 3: 6½ Furlongs. G2 Amsterdam Stakes

#4 Jefferson Street (8/5) – The lone stakes race on the card is not a great betting race with only a 5-horse field. However, this gelding can provide value as a single if he’s a lukewarm favorite in a competitive field on paper. The Conductor sees other horses taking money in here and thinks this colt is a cut above. The turn of foot he showed over this Saratoga dirt last time was very impressive. Jefferson Street is serious graded stakes caliber sprinter.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Surveillance (6/1) – 2nd of the claim for Maker, this gelding has been running formidable figures on the dirt at Churchill. Now, Maker switches him to the surface he’s bred for. Surveillance has a win on turf in his career, although he’s done most of his running on dirt. Maker’s horses always seem to improve switching to turf and it makes a lot of sense that this gelding will too. Maker and Jose won with a horse at 5/1 Wednesday at Saratoga with the exact same dirt to turf move.

Saratoga Thursday Picks — July 25, 2024 | Best Bets & Turf Card Handicapping

on July 25, 2024April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

A racehorse galloping on a green track with a jockey in colorful attire, showcasing speed and athleticism during a horse race.

Another frustrating Wednesday at the track. We’re close, but Saratoga keeps slipping out of the Conductor’s grasp. Three turf plays today. Skip.

Race 3: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

#5 Justdeny (8/1) – This filly broke her maiden impressively last time at this distance. She was 4-wide uncovered on the 1st turn, then 2-wide and covered on the 2nd and 3rd turns. She won easily and galloped out full of energy. In a race with mediocre favorites today, the Conductor thinks Justdeny can step up in class and win.

Race 9: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.G3 Caress Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Danse Macabre (10/1) – This filly has yet to run a bad race in her career. She has hit the board in every start and should get a good trip today with a hot pace in front of her. Her races last year fit with this group and her bullet works at Turfway suggest she’s ready to roll off the bench. Danse Macabre is a major underlay at double digit odds.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.MC 40000

#1 Tiz a Prince (15/1) – The Conductor will give Romero Maragh another try after a poor ride yesterday in the finale. This colt ran better than it looks last time with a bad trip. He was bumped hard at start, 3-wide covered on the 1st turn and forced 4-wide on the 2nd turn. Now dropping in class 3rd off the layoff for trainer David Duggan, he should get a favorable ground saving trip from the inside post. Tiz a Prince is live in this wide open race.

https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/ponyconductor/embed/episodes/Saratoga-Preview-for-Thursday-7252024-e2meh3l

Saratoga Wednesday Picks — July 24, 2024 | Best Bets & Turf Card Handicapping

on July 24, 2024April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

A dynamic image of thoroughbred horses racing on a dirt track, showcasing jockeys in colorful silks during a competitive event.

On the turf for now at Saratoga to start the racing week. That puts the Conductor in a good mood after a frustrating Sunday. But nobody cares your mood Mr. Ductor. Shut up and give us winners. Skip.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Clm 50000n2L

#4 Image of Quality (15/1) – The Conductor thinks this gelding is a live longshot in this race. He’s only had three turf starts in his career and they have all been sprinting. Now 2nd off the layoff, he drops in class and stretches out to a route for the first time. This race is devoid of any other speed and Image of Quality may carry his speed further than the public thinks. He’ll set slower fractions than he’s used to and the NYRA jockeys may wait to long to put pressure on him like they’re known to do. He’s a wildcard that could wire this field.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.G2 Honorable Miss Handicap

#4 Clearly Unhinged (5/1) – This filly’s best race came last year at Saratoga in the Test, where she ran a game 2nd. She’s moved into the Assmusen barn this year and he has her sharp cutting her back to shorter sprint distances. She has the early speed to work out a favorable trip in here and looks to be her best at 6-furlongs. Clearly Unhinged is certainly worth a win bet north of 4/1.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.S.MC 40000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Lu’s Redemption (4/1) – Making her 3rd start off the layoff, this filly drops to the claiming ranks for the 1st time. She ran much better than it looks last time vs tougher too. She was 3-wide into the first turn, uncovered on the backstretch, and made a nice 3-wide move on the 2nd turn. Lu’s Redemption looks primed to run a career best effort today and the Conductor sees her getting her picture taken at a square price.

Saratoga Sunday Picks — July 21, 2024 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

on July 21, 2024April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

An elderly man in a suit and hat stands beside a horse, showcasing a bond between human and animal in a classic black and white setting.

0/2 with a scratch yesterday at Saratoga. It’s mandatory we make some coal today. The Conductor demands it. Let’s Ride.

Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 40000n2L

#6 Musical Maestro (4/1) – This gelding took a big step forward in his 1st turf start last time. He was fanned 4-wide the entire turn and a bump late in the stretch cost him 2nd. He was probably best in that race and he gets a more favorable post today. 4/1 would be a fair price on Musical Maestro.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Mdn 100k

#1 Yesterday (8/1) – The Conductor will try again with another George Weaver 1st time starter routing on the turf. Hopefully, she behaves herself pre-race, unlike the one Saturday. She has the best turf breeding in the field and should get a nice ground saving trip. Weaver is 15% with a +$1.71 ROI with 1st time turf starters this year.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.S.Alw 95000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Roagna (6/1) – This filly is lightly raced and has the most upside in this wide open state-bred allowance field. She showed her talent winning on debut last year and has run better than it looks with poor trips in 2024. In her last race from post 10, she made a nice 5-wide move before rightfully flattening late. Now drawn to the inside for the first time in her career, she should get a favorable ground saving trip. The Conductor’s Sunday night supper will depend on Roagna.

Saratoga Saturday Picks — Haskell Day & Del Mar Opening (July 20, 2024) | Best Bets

on July 20, 2024April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

A thoroughbred racehorse galloping on a racetrack, showcasing speed and athleticism, with a jockey in colorful attire riding it.

Goose egg Friday at Saratoga is not what the Conductor ordered. Frustrating, but there is no crying in horse racing. Plenty of opportunities on today’s card and across the country. It’s Haskell Day at Monmouth and opening day at Del Mar. The coal is there for the taking, so shut up and grab a shovel. Let’s have a day. Skip.

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 100k

#1 Insubordination (12/1) – This colt is well bred for routing on the turf. Trainer George Weaver is also 15% this year with a +$1.71 ROI debuting horses on the lawn. Add a strong work tab with a favorable inside post, Insubordination looks ready to roll.

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. Clm 16000n2L

#4 Bonne Chance (12/1) – This is a wide open claiming race and the Conductor likes this gelding to fire at a big price. He broke is maiden impressively last year at Saratoga, winning by 5 lengths on debut. He then went off form in some sloppy races and they gave him a break. He ran well off a 6 month layoff last time, closing for 3rd behind a slow pace. Bonne Chance should move forward off that effort and is dangerous returning to his favorite race track.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.G3 Lake George Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Gavea (15/1) – This filly showed real talent last year, beating a quality stakes horse, Mo Fox Givin, in her US debut. She returned off the bench this year and ran a quality 3rd pressing the pace going 1 1/8 mile. The winner of that race, Pin Up Petty, has run back and flattered that effort. Now Gavea cuts back to her best distance in her 2nd start off the layoff. She gets a nice inside draw and a rider upgrade to Brian Hernandez. Gavea is going to fire a big effort at a juicy number.

Saratoga Friday Picks — July 19, 2024 | Best Bets & Full Card Handicapping

on July 19, 2024April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 3 Comments

Thoroughbred horses racing on a dirt track with jockeys in colorful silks, showcasing speed and competition during a horse race.

1/3 Thursday with a 5/1 winner at Saratoga. Solid, but the Conductor wants more. The caboose should be overflowing with coal. Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. S.Mdn 90k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Joker On Fire (6/1) – Castellano was aboard a live 1st timer, Brown Eyed Cat, for Levine on opening day. Brown Eyed Cat missed the break and still circled the field to win. Joker on Fire reminds the Conductor a lot of that colt. He’s working well and has a bullet 5-furlong gate work leading into his debut. Levine has the strongest 1st time starter stats in this field and this colt is bred to win early. Hopefully we don’t have to sweat a poor break this time.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

#5 Child of the Moon (4/1) – The Conductor is not impressed with this allowance field. This filly is making her US debut today for Chad Brown and makes the most sense. She’s run well vs stakes company in France will likely destroy this weak group. With a good post and Prat aboard, she’ll get a favorable trip as well.

#9 Epic Miss Justice (12/1) – There is one longshot that intrigues the Conductor in here. This filly broke her maiden nicely last year going this distance at Saratoga. She closed behind a slow pace and lit up the tote at 22/1. She came back off a year layoff last time sprinting at Aqueduct. That race was a clear prep for today, as Mott stretches her back out to her preferred distance. She has upside making just her 2nd start as a 4-year-old.

Saratoga Thursday Picks — July 18, 2024 | Best Bets & Turf Card Handicapping

on July 18, 2024April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

A man in a beige suit walking along railway tracks beside a vintage train at a station surrounded by greenery.

Back on the turf today after a forgetful Wednesday at Saratoga. The Conductor is ready to attack this card. Let’s Ride.

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) New York Stallion Series Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 Six Fortyfive (8/1) – The Conductor really liked this gelding’s effort last time off a year layoff. It was his first time routing on turf and he ran well with a terrible trip. He chased the pace 3-wide and uncovered around both turns and still got up for 2nd, galloping out in front. Six Fortyfive should take a big step forward today and looks to get an ideal ground saving trip. He’ll be the key to the Conductor’s day.

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

#2 Abientot (9/2) – This filly ran much better than it looks in her debut, chasing the pace while 4-wide. She never quit and ran well to hang on for 4th. Now drawn to the inside, she’ll get a much better trip and has major upside. The shorter distance should help her chances as well.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Clm 30000n2L

#9 Surprenant Cocca (9/2) – You can completely ignore this filly’s last race. She had a trip from hell. She was wide and uncovered the entire way and moved early into a quick pace. In her race two back at Aqueduct, she ran well despite encountering trouble. Surprenant Cocca had to avoid a horse checking sharply in front of her and still made a nice wide move on the turn. Now taking a big class drop today at Saratoga, the Conductor thinks she’s the one to beat. Her form is much better than it looks on paper.

Saratoga Wednesday Picks — July 17, 2024 | Best Bets & Week 2 Handicapping

on July 16, 2024April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

Large crowd gathered at an outdoor event with grandstands and trees in the background, showcasing a lively atmosphere.

Another solid 4/1 winner Sunday with Itza Mirrakle getting the job done. We keep grinding out positive days, but Saratoga’s gullet has proved elusive thus far. Let’s start week 2 off strong. Skip.

Race 2: 1 1/8 Mile. F.Mdn 100k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Refuse to Lose (4/1) – Similar to Itza Mirrakle, this filly is exiting a sold closing 2nd sprinting on the Saratoga dirt. She has upside stretching out to a route for the first time and this is trainer Horacio De Paz’s signature move. With 22 starters this year going two sprints to a route, he’s winning at a 32% clip with +$3.15 ROI. In a race where the two favorites will be significant underlays, the Conductor likes Refuse to Lose quite a bit.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.New York Stallion Series

#2 Sohana (6/1) – This filly got a favorable ground saving trip last time in her first turf start. However, she was too far back behind a slow pace to really have any chance. She made up a bit of ground in the stretch and the Conductor thinks she’ll like the added distance. Brad Cox is predictably strong with 1st time routers, she’ll get another great trip with an inside post and Prat aboard. Over 4/1 would be a fair price on Sohana.

Saratoga Sunday Picks — July 14, 2024 | Best Bets & Post-Diana Stakes Analysis

on July 14, 2024April 24, 2026 By The Conductor's Scribe 1 Comment

Black and white portrait of an elderly train conductor wearing a cap and uniform, showcasing a serious expression against a train backdrop.

Taking Candy was a nice 5/1 winner Saturday at Saratoga. However, the Conductor needed a stiff stew and a cigarette after Prat and Whitebeam stole the Diana from Moira on the front end. Nothing he can do now but take his anger out on Sunday’s card. Saratoga will atone.

Race 5: 1 1/8 Mile. Mdn 100k

#3 Itza Mirrakle (4/1) – The Conductor is against the two favorites in this race. Itza Mirrakle ran a strong closing 2nd going 7-furlongs over a speed favoring Saratoga track on debut. The winner of that race, Illuminare, came back to win impressively in an allowance race yesterday. Now Itza Mirrakle stretches out to a route for the first time and looks to get an ideal trip. He’ll be up close to a moderate pace and has major upside.

#6 Trulli Warrior (6/1) – Exiting that same sprint race, the Conductor likes the “other” Pletcher in this spot. He was well bet on debut and had a no chance trip chasing the pace while force wide. He has early speed and is dangerous making his first start going two turns.

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

*Gullet Shot of the Day #2 Coif (10/1) – The Cherie DeVaux entry #1/1A look took tough to beat in this race. However, the Conductor thinks Coif has the upside to inject value here, even if she runs 2nd. In her first race on turf last time, she had a terrible trip. She chased the pace 3-wide and uncovered around both turns before rightfully tiring late. Now she draws a nice inside post and gets Prat in the saddle. Coif is guaranteed to get a ground saving trip and should take a big step forward off that last effort. Chad Brown is a ridiculous 34% with 38 2nd time routers this year.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. G1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

Race 10: 1 1/8 Mile. G2 Jim Dandy Stakes

Race 1: 1 Mile. Clm 16000

Race 3: 6½ Furlongs. G2 Amsterdam Stakes

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) OC 62500n2x

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

Race 3: 1 3/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

Race 9: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.G3 Caress Stakes

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) S.MC 40000

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Clm 50000n2L

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.G2 Honorable Miss Handicap

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.S.MC 40000

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 40000n2L

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Mdn 100k

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.S.Alw 95000n1x

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) Mdn 100k

Race 5: 7 Furlongs. Clm 16000n2L

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.G3 Lake George Stakes

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. S.Mdn 90k

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Alw 110000n1x

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

Race 4: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) New York Stallion Series Stakes

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.Clm 30000n2L

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

Race 2: 1 1/8 Mile. F.Mdn 100k

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) F.New York Stallion Series

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor

Race 5: 1 1/8 Mile. Mdn 100k

Race 6: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 100k

Pegasus World Cup Preview for Saturday 1/25/2025 – The Pony Conductor