Ponies

Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Recap

The Conductor needed to regroup after the Breeders’ Cup madness.  An up and down day Saturday didn’t lead us to glory, but the Conductor isn’t phased.  He’ll hop back aboard and continue to fire.  Life on the rails isn’t for the faint of heart.

Race 3: Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint Breakdown

Top Picks: 13-11-5-1

This race completely fell apart with the scorching pace set by #1 Selcourt. This led to 25/1 #14 Shamrock Rose getting the job done and the Conductor’s picks falling backwards.

Race 4: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint Breakdown

Top Picks: 8-11-5-1-7

If you switched the 8 out with the 9, the Conductor handed out the ice cold superfecta.  #11 World Approval ran too good to lose and #9 Stormy Liberal surprised the Conductor at 7/1.

Race 5: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Breakdown

Top Picks: 10-1-6-2

#10 Catalina Cruiser didn’t fire, but #1 City of Light put on a show and #6 Seeking the Soul ran a huge 2nd to give the Conductor and us passengers a nice 22/1 exacta.

Race 6: Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf Breakdown

Top Picks: 6-1-9-12-2

#6 Sistercharlie got the job done for Chad at 3/1 and #9 A Raving Beauty ran huge for 3rd.  The Conductor’s underneath key #14 Eziyra didnt show up for him.

Race 7: Breeders’ Cup Sprint Breakdown

Top Picks: 2-9-8-5

#9 Roy H was dominant in victory and the Conductor was correct to play against the favorite #5 Imperial Hint.

Race 8: Breeders’ Cup Mile Breakdown

Top Picks: 5-8-15-1

This was the hardest race to handicap for the Conductor and it showed in his results.  #15 Divisidero gave the Conductor a brief glimmer of hope at 35/1, but other than that his opinions stunk.  #7 Expert Eye just got up at 5/1.

Race 9: Breeders’ Cup Distaff Breakdown

Top Picks: 2

This is the race that ruined the Conductor’s day. #2 Abel Tasman didn’t run a step and proved that her poor prep race was not an aberration.  #11 Monomoy Girl won in style.

Race 10: Breeders’ Cup Turf Breakdown

Top Picks: 2-5

The most thrilling race of the day and the Conductor’s best opinion.  Both fillies ran huge and the Conductor nailed the 13/1 exacta ice cold.

Race 11: Breeders’ Cup Classic Breakdown

Top Picks: 7-6-1-11

#1 Thunder Snow ran nicely for 3rd, but the Baffert runners didn’t show up for the Conductor.  The Conductor was against the favorite #14 Accelerate, who was much the best and made him look like a fool.

The Breeders’ Cup held its own this time against the Conductor, but this war isn’t finished.  Back to the grindstone, Let’s Ride.

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Ponies

Breeders’ Cup Classic Breakdown

Breeders’ Cup Saturday Races

1 1/4 Mile. G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic

The granddaddy of them all, a 14-horse field and a hell of a betting race.  You can make a case for just about every horse in the field and the Conductor wouldn’t throw you in the loony bin.  The Conductor is smarter than you though and he has this race nailed down tight. Tight!

*Gullet Shot #1 Thunder Snow (12/1) – The Conductor has always been a fan of this horse and he looks to be cycling up to a peak performance.  His Jockey Club Gold Cup effort was very strong, and it was a perfect prep for him.  He’s won races on different surfaces all over the world and he is the real deal.  The Conductor was alive to him in last year’s Kentucky Derby for all of King Midas’s silver, hopefully we don’t see the bucking bronco again.

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 #6 Mckinzie (6/1) – He may go off favored with all the buzz surrounding him this week.  He looked phenomenal in the Pennsylvania Derby and received the highest figure on the conductor’s numbers.  This Baffert trainee is only 3 and will only get better, he’s the 2nd most likely winner.

*Top Pick #7 West Coast (5/1) – The other Baffert runner in here is the one the Conductor believes will get the job done.  If he runs back to his effort in the Pegasus, this race is over, plain and simple. In his prep race off the layoff he set a hot pace and tired late.  That’s all that he needed to do, and all Baffert wanted.  He looks poised to run his best and his best is better than the rest in this field.

#11 Mind Your Biscuits (6/1) – The Conductor will protect himself with this beast of horse.  A Grade 1 winner sprinting and going 1 1/8 Mile, you can’t say that about many.  His win last out came back very fast over this same Churchill Surface and he is hard to knock.  The Conductor will mostly use him underneath.

#14 Accelerate (5/2) – Toss!

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Top Picks: 7-6-1-11

Ponies

Breeders’ Cup Turf Breakdown

Breeders’ Cup Saturday Races

1½ Mile. G1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf

#2 Enable (1/1) – Every moron can see that she’s the class of the field and the most likely winner on today’s card.  The quick turnaround after the Arc could do her in but the Conductor thinks it will be no problem having only run twice this year.  A winner of 9/10 starts she is pure class.

#5 Magical (10/1) – She’s the only horse the Conductor will use to protect himself if Enable falters and he’ll use her underneath in a stone-cold exacta.  She dominated in her last start over the soft turf she’ll see today, and she had some trouble in the Arc when she finished behind Enable.  She continues to get better with each start and has a ton of upside. Maybe we get a little Found/Golden Horn situation.

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Ponies, Videos

Friday’s Breeders’ Cup Recap

The 16/1 exacta in the Juvenile Fillies Turf was really the only thing the Conductor connected on yesterday.  Saturday is the money day anyway, so it’s time to back the caboose up to the windows and fire away with both fists.  The Conductor will change our lives today, Let’s Ride.

Ponies

Breeders’ Cup Friday Gullet Snatchers: The Conductor’s Plays

Breeders’ Cup Friday Plays:

Friday is finally here, and the Conductor can’t sit still.  He can’t wait to win a nice lump sum and get his bankroll flush for tomorrow.  Since you passengers are so loyal, he’s even laying out exactly how he’s betting sequence.  Let’s Ride:

Pick 5: 2,4,1,10 / 4,6 / 8,10,2 / 7,2,4,14,5 / 9,6,5 (1,8) 

Race 5: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint Breakdown

Top Picks: 2-4-1-10

Win Bet:  2,4

Exacta’s: 2,4 Box        1,2 / 4,10         4,10 / 1,2

Trifecta’s: 1,2 / 4,10 / All        4,10 / 1,2 / All      1,2 / All / 4,10      4,10 / All / 1,2

Race 6: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Breakdown

Top Picks: 4-6 / Underneath: 2,14

Win Bet: 4

Exacta’s: 4,6 / 2,14     2,14 / 4,6

Race 7: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Breakdown

Top Picks: 8-10-2

Win Bet: 8,10

Exacta’s: 8,10 Box    2,10 / 8     8 / 2,10

Race 8: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Breakdown

Top Picks: 7-2-4-14-5

Win Bet: 7,2

Race 9: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Breakdown

Top Picks: *#11 Honor Code Scratched – 9-6-5 / Underneath 1,8

Exacta’s: 9,6 / 1,5,8 and 1,5,8 / 9,6

 

Ponies

Breeders’ Cup Distaff Breakdown

Breeders’ Cup Saturday Races

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. F. G1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff

I’m sure everyone is asking, who is the Conductor’s key to the Breeders’ Cup?  Who can I put my mortgage on that’s not an odds-on favorite?  Well fear not, we have finally found the race. The Conductor is only using one horse in here and its not the morning line favorite.  Strap in your seat belts and enjoy the ride.

*Never a Doubt Breeders’ Cup Best Bet Lock #2 Abel Tasman (7/2) – The Conductor has no idea what happened in her last start, where she didn’t run a step.  However, her past performances including her win two back at Saratoga would absolutely bury this field.  The Conductor is just going to ignore that last race and say she didn’t show up.  Baffert wouldn’t bring her here if he didn’t think she will bring the goods and her bullet works entering today suggest she’s back to her old self.  Let’s Ride.

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Ponies

Breeders’ Cup Mile Breakdown

Breeders’ Cup Saturday Races

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) Breeders’ Cup Mile

Talk about a crap shoot, this race is wide open, and it will take an expert handicapper to narrow down the field.  Somebody who has seen it all, somebody like the Conductor.

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#1 One Master (12/1) – This filly continues to improve as she steps up in class and she is proven over soft turf.  She’s beaten a combined 28 horses in her last 2 victories and has shown she can navigate through traffic.  The Conductor is absolutely using her.

*Top Pick #4 Polydream (5/1) – She’s the buzz horse coming from France, with all the talent in the world and exiting a brutal trip where she had no chance.  She has the connections that led Goldikova to three straight victories in this race and looks poised to show her best. There is a chance she puts on a show and annihilates this field.

#5 Oscar Performance (6/1) – The soft turf is the concern for the Conductor, but he’s won over it as a 2-year-old.  There is not a lot of pace signed on this race and he should get his preferred trip on the front end.  The Conductor won’t let himself get beat by the leader turning into the stretch.

 #8 I Can Fly (10/1) – Losing by a neck to the super star Roaring Lion last start this filly is progressing and may be peaking at the last time.  She’ll get the exact same circumstances as her last start going a mile on soft turf, and there are no Roaring Lions in this field.

*Underneath Uppercut Below the Belt #15 Divisidero (30/1) – This old boy has had legitimate excuses all year, getting slow paces and tough trips.  The mile distance is a little short for him, but he gets back to Churchill downs where he does his best running.  He has the class and past performances to beat this field on his best day and the Conductor with key him underneath with a sprinkle on top.

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Ponies

Breeders’ Cup Sprint Breakdown

Breeders’ Cup Saturday Races

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. G1 TwinSpires Breeders’ Cup Sprint

This race is wide open, there are a core group of top contenders, but there not much faster than the rest.  This is a tough race to figure out, but thankfully we have the Conductor.

Winning Contenders

*Top Pick #2 Promises Fulfilled (6/1) – There is going to be a fast pace in this race, but this is the old speed of the speed angle.  This colt is lightning and will go guns blazing on the front end.  At 6 furlongs the Conductor thinks he can hold on.  He has the guts to hold them off and the Conductor can’t wait get him home.

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#5 Imperial Hint (9/5) – He’s a great racehorse and obviously has a chance to win, but the Conductor thinks Promises Fulfilled’s early gas will pose a problem.  He hasn’t seen a pace like this since his race at Churchill in May, his worst in the last few years.  The Conductor may toss him.

#8 Limousine Liberal (6/1) – 6/8 lifetime at Churchill Downs, you can’t leave this gelding off your tickets.  He should get a perfect setup with a hot pace to run at and should be poised to run his best in his 3rd start off the layoff.

#9 Roy H (5/2) – The winner of last year’s sprint will tough to beat again.  Drawn well to the outside, he can sit just off the leaders and get a perfect trip.  He’s the likeliest runner to take down Promises Fulfilled and is the class of the race.

*Underneath Uppercut Body Shot #7 Distinctive B (12/1) – This old boy likes to run 2nd, but that’s all the Conductor is asking for.  He’ll be forwardly placed and has some speed figures that make him competitive on his best day.  He’s a Del Mar specialist, but he’s in career form and who’s to say he won’t love Churchill? Please run 3rd.

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Top Picks: 2-9-8-5

Ponies

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf Breakdown

Breeders’ Cup Saturday Races

Race 6: 1 3/8 Mile. (Turf) Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

The Breeders’ Cup really knows how to pick their sponsors.  Is there anything better than betting on the best ponies in the world and having a few too many whiskey’s? The Conductor thinks not.  The Conductor is not a fan of this race from a betting perspective however, with the best turf trainer in the country have 5 runners.  He can dictate how this race is run.

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*Underneath Uppercut to the Adams Apple #14 Eziyra (15/1) – Her form in Europe is the best of the bunch and she will be the Conductor’s key in this race.  She draws a brutal position and has lesser known connections, but she is nails.  She has yet to miss the board in 11 career starts at different tracks, surfaces, distances and she’ll be a big price.  The Conductor gives her an outside chance to win, but will bet she’ll find a way to end up in the top 3.  He’ll key her with Chads runners in the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta.

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Chad Brown Runners: #1 Fourstar Crook (5/1) #2 Thais (20/1) #6 Sister Charlie (3/1) #9 A Raving Beauty (10/1) #12 Santa Monica (15/1) – One of them will win, you figure out which one.  The Conductor is hoping for one of the bigger prices, but all the Conductor knows is you’ll see this mug in the winner’s circle.

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Ponies

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Breakdown

Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Races

Race 5: 1 Mile. Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

The two favorites look tough to beat in here for the Conductor.  He’ll shorten up in this leg, but he has a mammoth price he likes underneath.

#1 City of Light (5/2) – He’s won sprinting and going 1 1/8 mile and his figures stand above all but one of these other runners.  His last race off a layoff in the Forego looks like a perfect setup race for this spot and he has enough early speed to put himself in a good spot, where the rail draw won’t be a problem.

*Underneath Uppercut to the Chin #2 Trigger Warning (20/1) – This colt ran 3rd behind Mckinzie in his last start, who will vie for favoritism in the BC Cllassic.  He is finally cutting back in distance, which he desperately needed, and he should get a hot pace to run at.  The Conductor will use him underneath to try and spice up the trifecta.

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#6 Seeking the Soul (5/1) – A mile is his best distance and Churchill Downs is his favorite track.  He’s the only horse in the field that has a chance to upset the top 2.  He looks to be ready to run a peak effort in his third start off the layoff and his peak effort gives him a chance.

*Top Pick #10 Catalina Cruiser (8/5) – He’s yet to be tested in his young career and many are questioning John Sadler’s poor record outside of California, but his figures stand over this group.  He is extremely talented and his win going two turns in the San Diego Handicap two starts back made the Conductor a believer.

Top Picks: 10-1-6-2