Tag: bc18

Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Recap

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A racehorse with a jockey wearing green and white attire competing in a horse race.

The Conductor needed to regroup after the Breeders’ Cup madness.  An up and down day Saturday didn’t lead us to glory, but the Conductor isn’t phased.  He’ll hop back aboard and continue to fire.  Life on the rails isn’t for the faint of heart.

Race 3: Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint Breakdown

Top Picks: 13-11-5-1

This race completely fell apart with the scorching pace set by #1 Selcourt. This led to 25/1 #14 Shamrock Rose getting the job done and the Conductor’s picks falling backwards.

Race 4: Turf Sprint Breakdown

Top Picks: 8-11-5-1-7

If you switched the 8 out with the 9, the Conductor handed out the ice cold superfecta.  #11 World Approval ran too good to lose and #9 Stormy Liberal surprised the Conductor at 7/1.

Race 5: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Breakdown

Top Picks: 10-1-6-2

#10 Catalina Cruiser didn’t fire, but #1 City of Light put on a show and #6 Seeking the Soul ran a huge 2nd to give the Conductor and us passengers a nice 22/1 exacta.

Race 6: Filly and Mare Turf Breakdown

Top Picks: 6-1-9-12-2

#6 Sistercharlie got the job done for Chad at 3/1 and #9 A Raving Beauty ran huge for 3rd.  The Conductor’s underneath key #14 Eziyra didnt show up for him.

Race 7: Breeders’ Cup Sprint Breakdown

Top Picks: 2-9-8-5

#9 Roy H was dominant in victory and the Conductor was correct to play against the favorite #5 Imperial Hint.

Race 8: Breeders’ Cup Mile Breakdown

Top Picks: 5-8-15-1

This was the hardest race to cap for the Conductor and it showed in his results.  #15 Divisidero gave the Conductor a brief glimmer of hope at 35/1, but other than that his opinions stunk.  #7 Expert Eye just got up at 5/1.

Race 9: Breeders’ Cup Distaff Breakdown

Top Picks: 2

This is the race that ruined the Conductor’s day. #2 Abel Tasman didn’t run a step and proved that her poor prep race was not an aberration.  Additionally, #11 Monomoy Girl won in style.

Race 10: BC Turf Breakdown

Top Picks: 2-5

The most thrilling race of the day and the Conductor’s best opinion.  Both fillies ran huge and the Conductor nailed the 13/1 exacta ice cold.

Race 11: Breeders’ Cup Classic Breakdown

Top Picks: 7-6-1-11

#1 Thunder Snow ran nicely for 3rd, but the Baffert runners didn’t show up for the Conductor.  The Conductor was also against the favorite #14 Accelerate, who was much the best and made him look like a fool.

The Breeders’ Cup held its own this time against the Conductor, but this war isn’t finished. Back to the grindstone, Let’s Ride.

Breeders' Cup

Breeders’ Cup Classic Breakdown

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Horses and jockeys starting a race at the Breeders' Cup World Championships event.

Breeders’ Cup Classic time, Let’s Ride.

1 1/4 Mile. G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic

The granddaddy of them all, a 14-horse field and a hell of a betting race.  You can make a case for just about every horse in the field and the Conductor wouldn’t throw you in the loony bin.  The Conductor is smarter than you though and he has this race nailed down tight. Tight!

*Gullet Shot #1 Thunder Snow (12/1) – The Conductor has always been a fan of this horse and he looks to be cycling up to a peak performance.  His Jockey Club Gold Cup effort was very strong, and it was a perfect prep for him.  He’s won races on different surfaces all over the world and he is the real deal.  The Conductor was alive to him in last year’s Kentucky Derby for all of King Midas’s silver, hopefully we don’t see the bucking bronco again.

Breeders' Cup Classic

 #6 Mckinzie (6/1) – He may go off favored with all the buzz surrounding him this week.  He looked phenomenal in the Pennsylvania Derby and received the highest figure on the conductor’s numbers.  This Baffert trainee is only 3 and will only get better, he’s the 2nd most likely winner.

*Top Pick #7 West Coast (5/1)

The other Baffert runner in here is the one the Conductor believes will get the job done.  If he runs back to his effort in the Pegasus, this race is over, plain and simple. In his prep race off the layoff he set a hot pace and tired late.  That’s all that he needed to do, and all Baffert wanted.  He looks poised to run his best and his best is better than the rest in this field.

#11 Mind Your Biscuits (6/1) – The Conductor will protect himself with this beast of horse.  A Grade 1 winner sprinting and going 1 1/8 Mile, you can’t say that about many.  His win last out came back very fast over this same Churchill Surface and he is hard to knock.  The Conductor will mostly use him underneath.

#14 Accelerate (5/2) – Toss!

Breeders' Cup Classic

Top Picks: 7-6-1-11

Breeders’ Cup Mile Breakdown

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A racehorse with a jockey wearing polka dots and a red cap competes on a grassy track, showcasing speed and athleticism.

Breeders’ Cup Mile time, Let’s Ride.

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) Breeders’ Cup Mile

Talk about a crap shoot, this race is wide open. It will take an expert handicapper to narrow down the field. Somebody who has seen it all, somebody like the Conductor.

Breeders’ Cup Mile

#1 One Master (12/1) – This filly continues to improve as she steps up in class. Additionally, she has proven herself over soft turf.  She’s beaten a combined 28 horses in her last 2 victories. Not many others have shown they can navigate through traffic. The Conductor is absolutely using her.

*Top Pick #4 Polydream (5/1)

She’s the buzz horse coming from France. She has all the talent in the world and had a brutal trip last time. She has the connections that led Goldikova to three straight victories in this race and looks poised to show her best. There is a chance she puts on a show and annihilates this field.

#5 Oscar Performance (6/1) – The soft turf is the concern for the Conductor, but he’s won over it as a 2-year-old.  There is not a lot of pace signed on this race and he should get his preferred trip on the front end.  The Conductor won’t let himself get beat by the leader turning into the stretch.

 #8 I Can Fly (10/1) – She lost by a neck to the super star Roaring Lion last start.  This filly is progressing and may be peaking at the right time.  She’ll get the exact same circumstances as her last start going a mile on soft turf. Roaring Lions is certainly not in this field.

*Underneath Uppercut Below the Belt #15 Divisidero (30/1) – This old boy has had legitimate excuses all year, getting slow paces and tough trips.  The mile distance is a little short for him. But, he gets back to Churchill downs where he does his best running.  He has the class and past performances to beat this field on his best day. The Conductor with key him underneath and also a sprinkle on top.

Breeders’ Cup Mile

 

 

Breeders’ Cup Sprint Breakdown

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Breeders' Cup Sprint

Breeders’ Cup Sprint time, Let’s Ride.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. G1 TwinSpires Breeders’ Cup Sprint

This race is wide open, there are a core group of top contenders, but there not much faster than the rest.  This is a tough race to figure out, but thankfully we have the Conductor.

Winning Contenders

*Top Pick #2 Promises Fulfilled (6/1) – There is going to be a fast pace in this race, but this is the old speed of the speed angle.  This colt is lightning and will go guns blazing on the front end.  At 6 furlongs the Conductor thinks he can hold on.  He has the guts to hold them off and the Conductor can’t wait get him home.

Breeders' Cup Sprint

#5 Imperial Hint (9/5) – He’s a great racehorse and obviously has a chance to win, but the Conductor thinks Promises Fulfilled’s early gas will pose a problem.  He hasn’t seen a pace like this since his race at Churchill in May, his worst in the last few years.  The Conductor may toss him.

#8 Limousine Liberal (6/1) – 6/8 lifetime at Churchill Downs, you can’t leave this gelding off your tickets.  He should get a perfect setup with a hot pace to run at and should be poised to run his best in his 3rd start off the layoff.

#9 Roy H (5/2) – The winner of last year’s sprint will tough to beat again.  Drawn well to the outside, he can sit just off the leaders and get a perfect trip.  He’s the likeliest runner to take down Promises Fulfilled and is the class of the race.

*Underneath Uppercut Body Shot #7 Distinctive B (12/1)

This old boy likes to run 2nd, but that’s all the Conductor is asking for.  He’ll be forwardly placed and has some speed figures that make him competitive on his best day.  He’s a Del Mar specialist, but he’s in career form and who’s to say he won’t love Churchill? Please run 3rd.

Top Picks: 2-9-8-5

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf Breakdown

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Exciting horse racing scene at the Breeders Cup with jockeys competing on thoroughbreds, showcasing speed and athleticism.

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf time, Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 1 3/8 Mile. (Turf) Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

The Breeders’ Cup really knows how to pick their sponsors.  Is there anything better than betting on the best ponies in the world and having a few too many whiskey’s? The Conductor thinks not.  The Conductor is not a fan of this race from a betting perspective however, with the best turf trainer in the country have 5 runners.  He can dictate how this race is run.

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

*Underneath Uppercut to the Adams Apple #14 Eziyra (15/1) – Her form in Europe is the best of the bunch and she will be the Conductor’s key in this race.  She draws a brutal position and has lesser known connections, but she is nails.  She has yet to miss the board in 11 career starts at different tracks, surfaces, distances and she’ll be a big price.  The Conductor gives her an outside chance to win, but will bet she’ll find a way to end up in the top 3.  He’ll key her with Chads runners in the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta.

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

Chad Brown Runners: #1 Fourstar Crook (5/1) #2 Thais (20/1) #6 Sister Charlie (3/1) #9 A Raving Beauty (10/1) #12 Santa Monica (15/1) – One of them will win, you figure out which one.  The Conductor is hoping for one of the bigger prices, but all the Conductor knows is you’ll see this mug in the winner’s circle.

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

 

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Breakdown

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Racehorse Tamarkuz with jockey in blue silks competing in a race at Breeders' Cup.

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile time, Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 1 Mile. Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

The two favorites look tough to beat in here for the Conductor.  He’ll shorten up in this leg, but he has a mammoth price he likes underneath.

#1 City of Light (5/2) – He’s won sprinting and going 1 1/8 mile and his figures stand above all but one of these other runners.  His last race off a layoff in the Forego looks like a perfect setup race for this spot. He also has enough early speed to put himself in a good spot. The rail draw won’t be a problem.

*Underneath Uppercut to the Chin #2 Trigger Warning (20/1) – This colt ran 3rd behind Mckinzie in his last start, who will vie for favoritism in the BC Cllassic.  He is finally cutting back in distance, which he desperately needed, and he should get a hot pace to run at.  The Conductor will use him underneath to try and spice up the trifecta.

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

#6 Seeking the Soul (5/1) – A mile is his best distance and Churchill Downs is his favorite track.  He’s the only horse in the field that has a chance to upset the top 2.  He looks to be ready to run a peak effort in his third start off the layoff.

*Top Pick #10 Catalina Cruiser (8/5) – He’s yet to be tested in his young career and many are questioning John Sadler’s poor record outside of California. However, his figures stand over this group.  He is extremely talented and his win going two turns in the San Diego H. made the Conductor a believer.

Top Picks: 10-1-6-2

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint Breakdown

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Thoroughbred racehorse Stormy Liberal with jockey in blue silks racing on a turf track.

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint time, Let’s Ride.

Race 4: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

This is one of the biggest spread races on the card for the Conductor, chaos will likely ensue.

#1 Ruby Notion (20/1) – A winner of two in a row, her win two starts back was the fastest on soft turf in this field.  That’s the ground she’ll get on Saturday and this race is wide open.  The rail is an obvious concern, but at the price she’ll be she’s a must use.

#5 Disco Partner (7/2) – He hasn’t run his best on soft ground, but there was a little cut in the ground last time out at Belmont and he won like a good thing.  He’s the class of the field and the Conductor won’t let him knock him out.

#7 Lost Treasure (20/1) – He’s a young boy shipping over from Ireland. However, he’s battle tested, proven over a yielding turf course and gets Lasix for the first time.  The Conductor won’t let the O’brien/Moore combo beat him.

*Top Pick and Gullet Shot #8 Chanteline (15/1) – A winner of 3 of her last 4, this mare is in career form. Additionally, she ran a monster race over the soft turf behind Ruby Notion a few starts back.  She’s drawn a favorable post, working well and the Conductor is looking his chops.

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

#11 World of Trouble (6/1) – He’s run big figures on dirt, but he’s run even bigger on turf in his last two starts. His win at Belmont last start over good turf was jaw dropping. Moving forward, he could be unstoppable on his newfound preferred surface.

Top Picks: 8-11-5-1-7

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint Breakdown

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Three thoroughbred horses competing in a race with jockeys in colorful silks on a dirt track.

With Friday’s card locked up and victory guaranteed, the Conductor will give us his keys to Saturday’s races.  This is truly the best two days of the year and the Conductor is giving us the answers to the test before we take it.  The train is en route to Louisville, sleep with one eye open Churchill, Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint time.

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

Race 3: 7 Furlongs. G1 F.Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

The Conductor thinks the favorites are vulnerable in here and has found us a couple of big prices have big chances.  This is his favorite type of race.

#1 Selcourt (4/1) – She ran by far the fastest figure in this field in her last start and has turned into a monster as a 3-year-old.  However, drawing the rail and not having run in 7 months would be a lot to overcome and win a Breeders’ Cup sprint.  The Conductor will only use her defensively.

*Gullet Slit #5 Golden Mischief (10/1) – Winning at Keeneland off the layoff last start, she looked dead in the water on the turn and somehow managed to win.  With a step forward off that start she will be tough to beat, and she should get a perfect trip sitting off a hot pace.  This mare has won races all over the country including this surface, you can’t leave him off your tickets.

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

*Gullet Slit #11 Finley’sluckycharm (10/1) – She ran a dud last race at Saratoga, but she has multiple past performances that would trounce this field.  She’s a gaudy 6/7 lifetime at Churchill Downs and her work tab looks like she’s back to her old self.  If she runs her best, she wins.

*Top Pick #13 Marley’s Freedom (8/5) – A winner of her last 4 starts, she is clearly the one to beat.  She should get a good trip sitting just off a hot pace and her works coming in look outstanding as well.  She’ll probably win for Baffert, but her speed figures don’t stand out on the Conductor’s numbers enough to make her a cinch.  She can be beat on Saturday.

Top Picks: 13-11-5-1

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Breakdown

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Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile time, Let’s Ride.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. G1 Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

This race is being hyped as a classic East Coast vs West Coast showdown.   It’s a tail as old as time as the two heavy favorites meet in the middle to decide the score.  The problem for the bettors in this one is that neither of them of them are going to win.  The East Coast will win this battle, but it’s not the horse all the mortals think.

#5 Well Defined (20/1) – The Conductor thinks this boy is a very sneaky longshot, who can hit the board in this one.  He went wire to wire setting a slow pace last time at Gulfstream Park, but the Conductor’s figures don’t lie, and he’s run back two back very good ones.  If he can sit behind horses, he’ll finish strongly and Mike Smith hops aboard, which is very intriguing.

#6 Complexity (5/2) – The East Coast favorite, who has been extremely impressive, winning in gate to wire fashion in his first two starts.  The Conductor likes him a lot, but the added distance and other front-runners in here don’t make him a cinch.

#9 Game Winner (8/5) – This is the Bob Baffert type West Coast shipper that seems to win every big race.  Additionally, he’s proven he can pass horses and should get a perfect trip sitting just behind the leaders.  The Conductor thinks he has a slight edge over complexity.

*Top Pick and Gullet Slit #11 Code of Honor (5/1)

This is the colt the Conductor is most excited about on Friday.  He ran behind #6 Complexity in his last start, but he stumbled badly out of the gate.  The Conductor thought it was a monster effort to close from last while the pace wasn’t that hot.  Complexity will face more early pressure in this race and the added distance favors Code of Honor. He’s also bred to route and the Conductor envisions him running them all down in the stretch.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Top Picks: 11-9-6-5

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Breakdown

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Racehorse Mendelssohn with jockey in purple and white silks racing on a turf track.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf time, Let’s Ride.

Keeneland Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) – G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

This is the hardest race on Friday’s card and almost everyone has a shot. However, fear not, the Conductor has the 14-horse field narrowed down to only 5 that can win. Moreover, he likes a few juicy prices.  If Churchill isn’t careful, the Conductor can have it begging for mercy.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

*Gullet Shot #2 Uncle Benny (15/1) – This Servis trainee was hung 8 wide and closed like a rocket to win her last start. Furthermore, this was after breaking her maiden going gate to wire on dirt.  Versatility is key and he shouldn’t have any problem stretching out.  The Conductor won’t be surprised by this upset.

#4 Forty Under (5/1) – The Pilgrim was the fastest American prep race on the Conductor’s numbers and this boy was best.  The course was yielding that day and there will also be cut in the ground on Friday . He’s improving, and should sit a nice trip a few lengths off the lead.

#5 Line of Duty (10/1) – This colt is shipping in from France after wins at a mile and 1 1/8 mile.  He’s also proven over a soft turf course and adds Lasix for the first time.  The Conductor likes his steady progression and thinks he’s poised to run a new top effort.

*Top Pick and Gullet Slit #7 Somelikeithotbrown (12/1)

He’s been ignored in the Breeders’ Cup build up. Additionally, the Conductor hopes they ignore him at the windows too.  He set a very fast pace in the Pilgrim and was only beaten ¾ of a length by #4 Forty Under that day.  If you like Forty Under in this race you must like Somelikeithotbrown more. The Conductor will argue he should be a shorter price.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

#14 Anthony Van Dyck (4/1) – He’s the class of the field running bang up races against much tougher in Europe.  Although, the Conductor can’t rely on him with his brutal post position.  Maybe he’s talented enough to overcome a wide trip and Ryan Moore can certainly work some magic.  The Conductor must use him defensively.

Top Picks 7-2-4-14-5