Good bounce back Saturday for the Conductor. Let’s finish the weekend strong.
Let’s whack’em right between the eyes. Skip.
| Race | A | B | C |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| 2 | 2, 5, 7, 9 | 1, 6 | |
| 3 | 3, 7, 10 | 1, 4, 5, 6 | |
| 4 | 1, 2 | 4, 6, 9 | |
| 5 | 7 | 1 | 2, 9, 11 |
| 6 | 1 | 3, 9, 10 | |
| 7 | 2 | 6 | 1, 4, 8, 9 |
| 8 | 6, 8 | 4, 10 | 7, 13 |
| 9 | 3, 6 | 1, 2, 8, 11 |
The Conductor sucked yesterday. Let’s be honest about it. The 15/1 horse in the turf sprint that got steamed down to 6/1 after the gates opened, and then won on the lead for fun — when he’s never been on the lead in his life — really soured the Conductor on Keeneland.
It’s tough to love this game when the CAWS are in bed with the tracks and the greedy bastards don’t give a shit about the horseplayer. That’s not a game. That’s a tax collection dressed up in silks.
But the Conductor doesn’t quit. The passengers don’t quit. We show up. We cap harder. We try again. Skip.
Be wary of the rain today — there might be some late scratches. The forecast doesn’t look bad enough to take the races off the turf, but watch the board before post time. Scratches reshape this card. Adapt accordingly.
| Race | Contenders |
|---|---|
| Race 1 | 1 / 2, 4 |
| Race 2 | 3, 4 / 2, 8, 9 |
| Race 3 | 3, 7 / 1, 8, 9, 10, 12 |
| Race 4 | 2 / 7 |
| Race 5 | 9, 10, 11 / 1, 7, 8 |
| Race 6 | 3 / 4, 8 / 7, 9, 10 |
| Race 7 | 1 / 3, 4, 7 |
| Race 8 | 3, 6 / 1, 11 |
| Race 9 | 1, 5, 8 / 4, 6 |
| Race 10 | 2, 4 / 1, 3, 5 |
| Race 11 | 12 / 3, 5, 7, 10 |
Watch the scratches. Don’t chase the steam. And remember — the Conductor doesn’t owe the CAWS a damn thing. We ride at our own pace.
New passenger? Subscribe to The Conductor’s Scroll — free to board, First Class for the full weekend card. And if you want to understand what the Conductor is actually doing before he writes these, start with the beginner’s guide to handicapping a horse race.
On the turf for now at Saratoga to start the racing week. That puts the Conductor in a good mood after a frustrating Sunday. But nobody cares your mood Mr. Ductor. Shut up and give us winners. Skip.
#4 Image of Quality (15/1) – The Conductor thinks this gelding is a live longshot in this race. He’s only had three turf starts in his career and they have all been sprinting. Now 2nd off the layoff, he drops in class and stretches out to a route for the first time. This race is devoid of any other speed and Image of Quality may carry his speed further than the public thinks. He’ll set slower fractions than he’s used to and the NYRA jockeys may wait to long to put pressure on him like they’re known to do. He’s a wildcard that could wire this field.
#4 Clearly Unhinged (5/1) – This filly’s best race came last year at Saratoga in the Test, where she ran a game 2nd. She’s moved into the Assmusen barn this year and he has her sharp cutting her back to shorter sprint distances. She has the early speed to work out a favorable trip in here and looks to be her best at 6-furlongs. Clearly Unhinged is certainly worth a win bet north of 4/1.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 Lu’s Redemption (4/1) – Making her 3rd start off the layoff, this filly drops to the claiming ranks for the 1st time. She ran much better than it looks last time vs tougher too. She was 3-wide into the first turn, uncovered on the backstretch, and made a nice 3-wide move on the 2nd turn. Lu’s Redemption looks primed to run a career best effort today and the Conductor sees her getting her picture taken at a square price.
Some bad opinions, some decent ones opening night at Canterbury Park. Nobody hit the pick 5, so we get a 110k carryover on a Wednesday. The Conductor likes this track already. Let’s Ride.
#5 Drop of Golden Sun (8/1) – He caught a muddy track of the bench in his 1st start of the year last time. 2nd off the layoff today, he should step forward and has multiple races last year that give him every chance.
#4 Fallen Empire (10/1) – He was well bet in his debut vs much tougher and ran ok with a wide trip. He adds blinkers today and has major upside.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #1 North of Eden (6/1) – This mare is ultra consistent and will be facing weaker today than she has in a long time. She draws well to the inside too.
#10 Sailing Along (4/1) – She was very impressive in her debut win last time and there is nothing to be scared of in this group.
#4 Market Analysis (8/1) – He showed talent last year and is another one that caught a sloppy track in his comeback effort. 2nd off the layoff today he should take a big step forward.
The attempted clean up continues as the NYRA suspends Baffert and bans Linda Rice for three years. Maybe the sport will get its act together after all. A bright spot in racing is what Canterbury Park has decided to do this meet. Racing on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, full fields, 10% pick 5 and 6 takeout. The Ductor will be adding the circuit to his repertoire. Only Mondays off for now on, man he works so hard. Thank you for your service Mr. Ductor. Skip.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #12 Riverboat Gambler (10/1) – Stretching out to a mile and switching to turf 1st off the claim, this gelding is very intriguing. His dirt numbers give him every chance against this group and he placed in one of his two turf starts, both were sprinting.
#6 Sundance Star (2/1) – 2nd off the layoff after a good 2nd vs tougher last time at Tampa, she’s the most likely winner in the sequence.
#8 Just Blaze (4/1) – His last two starts have been rained off the turf and he finally gets back to what he does best today. He’s the most proven turf sprinter in the field.
#7 Thealligatorhunter (6/1) – He’s coming in off a layoff, but the Conductor likes his work tab and his race two back vs stakes company beats this group.
#2 Praise Loudly (12/1) – Stretching out after decent effort sprinting, hes the lone speed in here and the Conductor has question marks about everyone in this field. He may be able to steal it up front at a big number.
The world is a sphere. If you dig a deep enough hole, you come out the other side. Louisiana Derby Day, Skip.
#1 Roadster (3/1) – A bit of a wild card with a new barn off a long layoff, but hopefully that causes his price to float up. His work tab is solid and he has the early speed to take it to this field. The Conductor trusts Johnny V to be aggressive.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Logical Myth (6/1) – The Ductor played him last time and he ran very well with some trouble. Getting back to firm ground today, he loves the Fair Grounds and has every chance vs this field.
#4 Li’l Tootsie (4/1) – She showed great versatility last time closing in the slop her first time routing. Her sprint effort on dirt two back was very fast and this morning line would be a great price.
#6 Mandaloun (8/5) – Nothing creative here. The Conductor sees him getting the same trip as last time and getting the job done
Mary had a little Whack! 20/1 on Law Professor yesterday fills the train with coal rolling into Big Cap Day. Do not let Santa Anita up for air! Skip!
#4 Bleu Ballon (4/1) – She has an early pace edge over this field and her finish sprinting last time was impressive. The added ground should be no issue.
#2 Kershaw (3/1) – This gelding ran very well last time closing into a slow pace and overcoming trouble. He’s added the ability to rate to his game and he’s the clear one to beat in the Ductor’s opinion.
#4 Shooters Shoot (10/1) – Dropping out of a Grade 3 and stretching out 3rd off the layoff, he’s very dangerous as the lone speed. You must use him at a price.
#2 Dream Shake (5/1) – He was very impressive in his debut and blew away the Baffert favorite at 20/1. Stretching out for the first time, the Conductor sees the distance helping him.
#8 Loud Mouth (8/1) – Drawn well to the outside, this guy is in great form and looks to get a perfect stalking trip. He’s won 3 of his last 4 and had an excuse in his lone defeat.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Social Paranoia (8/1) – Cutting back to his best distance, he ran very well last time pressing wide vs tougher. In a wide-open race on paper, the Conductor is praying he stays near his morning line.
#5 Express Train (3/1) – He dominated in first try at this distance on dirt last time. His price will likely float up from his morning line and is faster than Maxfield on paper. Easy Big Cap Winner. Choo Choo!
0/3 yesterday has the Conductor scrounging the cupboards for the last tuna fish can. With Big Cap Day tomorrow, we’ll head out to Santa Anita for the weekend. Let’s Ride.
#1 Bella Renella (4/1) – Her work tab suggests she’ll be fit off the bench and her races last summer fit right in with this group. She’ll be a nice price in a small field and is dropping to her lowest career level.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Law Professor (6/1) – Stretching out at Santa Anita for the 1st time, this colt is working well and adds blinkers. McCarthy is 20% with a +$2.64 ROI this year with 1st time routers and Rosario takes the mount for a barn he rarely rides for. There are many reasons for this boy to jump forward.
*Scratched #1 Lovely Finish (12/1) – Exiting an easy maiden breaking win at Los Al off the bench, this mare has run figures competitive with this group at Santa Anita. Her price will likely be a big overlay with low % connections, but she can absolutely beat this group.
Well, the Conductor is in a hole entering a great Fountain of Youth Stakes Day. No excuses, just pick up a shovel and get back to work. Let’s Ride.
#8 Jakarta (15/1) – Stretching out off a short break, she’s the lone speed in a race devoid of any pace. She’s won at a mile on dirt and Mott is one of the best stretching them out. She The Conductor can see her stealing it on the front end, or at least holding on in the trifecta.
#5 Millefeuille (5/1) – #3 Vequist (7/5) is the clear one to beat, but her trainer is only 2/47 off a 90+ day layoff this year. This filly is the only one close to her on numbers and the Conductor likes her shortening back to a mile.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #9 War Like Goddess (10/1) – This filly has run monster late pace figures in her first two career starts and gets the acid test today. There aren’t any standouts in this field and the Conductor thinks she has loads of talent.
#1 Drain the Clock (5/1) – The Conductor liked the way he rated last time and won with ease. Stretching out for the first time, if he can get the distance, he’ll have every chance.
#5 Jirafales (15/1) – Re-rallying after being steadied hard on the turn last time, he galloped out well passed Drain the Clock. He will like every inch of ground.
Oh Oaklawn Park, how the Conductor missed you. No more snow in Arkansas, Skip.
#9 Calculated Risker (20/1) – #7 Hardly a Secret (5/2) looks like a standout in here, but the Conductor can see this gelding lighting up the tri. Dropping in class and stretching out to a route, his dirt route numbers fit with this group. He should be up close to the lead in a race without much early pace as well.
#5 Jack Luvs Nova (6/1) – He’s working well off the layoff and putting the blinkers back on today. His efforts at Churchill this fall give him every chance in here.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 News Flash (10/1) – Dropping in class 1st off the claim for a better barn, he’s working well and has an early pace edge over this field. He should be able to clear the field early and will be very dangerous at a big number.
*Double Barreled Buckshot #5 Kadri (10/1) – He showed talent in early in his career and ran better than it looks last time with a slow break and a wide trip. 2nd off the layoff today he looks like he’s sitting on a top effort.
#7 One for Richie (15/1) – He trounced weaker last time and will be stepping up in class today. His last race was by far the fastest last race in the field and anything near this morning line would be a must whack.
