Could you be more wrong than the Conductor at the Fairgrounds yesterday? Probably not. Back to the west coast. Lat’s Ride.
Race 1: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.Mdn 55k
#8 On Mars (6/1) – Favored last time, she got caught in a pace duel before fading. She can take a step forward trying the grass today and Mike Smith hops aboard.
Race 3: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.S.Mdn 55k
#6 Too Much Smoke (12/1) – She was well bet on debut and hasn’t shown much in two starts. She gets a major rider upgrade today and Peter Miller is 30% this year with runners making their 2nd career grass start. She could take a major step forward.
Race 6: 6 Furlongs. S.OC 20000n1x
#5 Tigre Di Slugo (3/1) – 2nd off the layoff and getting off the rail today, the Conductor thinks he’ll run a big one. His debut win was very impressive.
#8 Big Barrel (20/1) – Cutting back to a sprint after pressing a hot pace going a mile last start, the Conductor sees him spicing up the exotics underneath.
Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.G3 Sweet Life Stakes
#4 Shines Her Light (4/1) – 2nd off the layoff, she looks to get a perfect trip again like she did last time in victory.
The Conductor is going to get bold right off the bat and TOSS the favorite #4 Sliver Dust (5/2) in leg 1. Can he win? Absolutely, but he’s nothing special and the Conductor wasn’t impressed with the Louisiana Stakes last time. He’s going to have to deal with a hotter pace than he’s seen in his last few starts as well.
The Conductor sees #6 Hofburg (4/1) as a standout in here and will press him on most tickets. The layoff and running style are the only things not making him a stone cold single.
#1 Mocito Rojo (8/1), #2 Sleepy Eyes Todd (10/1), #10 Cutting Humor (8/1) and #11 Pirate’s Punch (10/1) are all prices the Conductor will be using in here as well.
There is going to be a very hot pace in this one and the closers will have an advantage. #2 Synchrony (3/1) and #5 Dontblamerocket (9/2) are the most logical winners but can’t be completely trusted.
#6 Classic Covey (6/1), #9 Captivating Moon (10/1), and #12 Midnight Tea Time (12/1) are others that the Conductor likes and the will get great setups.
Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes
The Conductor much prefers #6 British Idiom (8/5) to #7 Finite (2/1) and he will TOSS the #7. The Conductor will also use #3 Swiss Skydiver (8/1). His debut win was very strong and he should improve 2nd off the layoff.
The 2nd division of the Risen Star doesn’t deserve a horse by horse breakdown. The race looks to start and end with the heavy favorite on paper.
*#8 Anneau d’Or (9/5) – 2nd by a head in his last two races, he’s pressed hot paces against tougher and been game to the wire. Unless he doesn’t show up completely, he looks like a cut above this group.
If you’re a passenger who refuses to take the chalk or looking to fill out the exacta with some prices, here’s two the Conductor likes.
#7 Major Fed (10/1) – This race looks to have a quicker pace than the Division 1 running, so the Conductor prefers closers underneath. This colt ran a monster late pace figure in his maiden breaker last time and his kick was visually impressive down the lane.
#10 Finnick the Fierce (10/1) – A deep closer who continues to outrun his odds without great pace setups, he will be finishing strongly. 2nd off the layoff, he should take a step forward exiting a decent 4th in the Lecomte stakes.
Its getting to that time of year, the first Saturday in May is going to be here faster than Conductor downing a tall glass of stew. The first major prep races are Saturday and the fields are drawn for the two divisions of the Risen Star. Last years races proved to be very key to the triple crown races. What will this year’s results bring? There are no certainties other than a lot of money going into the Conductor’s pocket. Let’s Ride.
#1 Digital (6/1) – He had a very favorable trip last time up close to a very slow pace and couldn’t get the job done. He’s not for the Conductor.
*#2 Silver Slate (4/1) – The running styles in this race are very intriguing. You have a group that have only won gate to wire and many deep closers. The ones that can lay close to the pace and get first run will have the advantage and this boy looks like he’ll get the trip. He had trouble at the break last time and rallied for a strong 2nd in the G3 Lacomte stakes. His early pace figures sprinting show that he has enough tactical speed to be in a much for favorable position early.
#3 Ready to Roll (20/1) – His maiden win was a slow-paced gate to wire victory in the slop. Pass
#4 Perfect Revenge (20/1) – He has the most experience in the field and his last two efforts on dirt have been much improved. Another step forward and he could hit the board at a massive number.
#5 Moon Over Miami (10/1) – This colt’s maiden breaker was impressive, and he had a brutal trip last time. The Conductor won’t talk you off him.
#6 Sashaahakemeup (20/1) – No excuses last time, no chance.
#7 Blackberry Wine (5/1) – 5/1 on a gate when he’s only proven he can win on the front end of slow paces? Suckers bet.
#8 Enforceable (7/2) – This colt is the class of the field, but do you really want a favorite that will be coming from dead last? He’s not for the Conductor.
#9 Mr Monomoy (6/1) – He should have done more with his trip in the Lecomte.
#10 Farmington Road (8/1) – He looks to get a favorable trip, but this may be asking a little too much. His win last start bodes well for #5 Moon Over Miami (10/1).
#11 Scabbard (12/1) – There is no chance this colt will go off at those odds. He’s another deep closer and will drop way back from the 12 post. That said, he has talent and upside 2nd off the layoff. If somehow he doesn’t take money at the windows the Conductor will include as a backup.
Santa Anita is finally back in action and the Conductor has to pay for his golf trip somehow. Let’s Ride.
Race 1: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) S.Mdn 55k
#6 Squalotoro (8/1) – The Conductor likes this boy’s work tab and Puype can hit with first time starters. He’s 12% with a +$0.06 ROI this year with debut runners. The Conductor hates the M/L favorites in here.
Race 3: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.S.OC 50000n1x
#3 Florentine Diamond (9/2) – Whenever a 1st timer has a blowout debut win for very low % connections, the Conductor takes note. This filly may have some real talent.
Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) BaffleB75K
#3 Bulletproof One (2/1) – This filly can scoot early and she looks primed for a monster effort cutting back to a more preferable distance 2nd off the bench.
Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.MC 75000
*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Wine At Sunset (10/1) – Why is Mike Smith hopping aboard a 75k claimer who didn’t show much in their debut, for a barn he rarely rides for? The Conductor smells something fishy.
Swing in a miss yesterday. The Conductor likes today’s late pick 5 much better today, however. Here are his keys. Let’s Ride
Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. F.OC 40000n1x
#1 Miss Stormy D (5/2) – Stretching out to a route for the first time, she ran better than it looks last time fighting for the lead in between horses and turning away the other speed.
#4 Meso (6/1) – The longest price in a short field, she looks to get a perfect setup with a hot pace to close into.
Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. MC 30000
*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Handsome Michael (6/1) – He ran very well last time, pressing a hot pace wide all the way around the turn. He finished behind an even money favorite and runners with much more favorable trips. The Conductor will try to get alive only to him in the last.
Woof, Santa Anita weekday cards have been brutal lately. Small fields, so the Conductor must pick his spots like the disciplined man that he is. He loves one price today. Let’s Ride
Race 4: 1 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 55k
*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Cardiff Cay (8/1) – 2nd off the layoff, he’s exiting a strange race with a very slow pace. The fields he faced this fall in New York were miles tougher than this group and the Conductor sees him taking a big step forward with more fitness today. The Chatios barn has been running well and Franco won aboard a 9/1 runner the only other time he and Chatios have teamed up this meet.
Hopefully you passengers were able to make some money yesterday, the Conductor had some good opinions and some bad ones. Over 3 million in free money in the pick 6 pot getting paid out today, so we have to play. Let’s Ride
He’s Baaaaaaaaaccccccccckkkkkkkkkkk. The Conductor apologizes for his recent absence, but not really. The train went off the rails and needed some maintenance, that’s just part of ductor life. Nothing a few weeks back at the station can’t fix. You passengers didn’t think he’d miss the Pegasus did you? Silly passengers, after all this time you still can’t figure out the Conductor. Great card today at Gulfstream, big fields and the Conductor is salivating. Time to take a nice slow ride THROTTLE IT! Let’s Ride.
Race 7: 1 Mile. G3 Fred W. Hooper Stakes
This is a very intriguing race to start the Pick 6 sequence. We’ll have to see if the dirt is a speed highway, but this looks like a meltdown race with a blistering pace on paper. The Conductor will turn to the closers.
#5 Phat Man (10/1) – Exiting a good 2nd last start, splitting War Story and Bode Express (who we’ll talk about later), he looks to get a great trip with Irad aboard. The Conductor will key him in the exacta as well.
#7 Tale of Silence (10/1) – He’s had time off after running a dud last start. His race two back closing into a slow pace and finishing 1 ¾ lengths behind Maximum Security makes him a must use.
Other contenders #8 Free Enterprise (4/1), #10 Gray Magician (6/1), and the Conductor can see #9 Olympic Village (20/1) hitting the board underneath.
Race 8: 1½ Mile. (Turf) F.G3 La Prevoyante Stakes
#6 Lady Paname (3/1) – She’s clearly the one to beat from the Conductor’s perspective and will single her on most tickets. The long layoff doesn’t concern him with Chad.
#3 Kelsey’s Cross (8/1) – This filly is making her first start as a four-year-old and has sneaky back class. She’s run behind Cambier Parc and Concrete Rose and this field is much weaker than what she’s used to.
#4 Mean Mary (8/1) – She’s the controlling speed and the Conductor likes her steady progression.
Race 9: 7 Furlongs. F.G2 Inside Information Stakes
Another race with what looks like a hot pace, the Conductor sees only 3.
#7 Spiced Perfection (8/5) – The heavy favorite, she’d clearly the class of the field and can dictate her own trip.
#6 Nonna Madeline (8/1) – She didn’t live up to the hype last year but took care of business in her comeback race. The Conductor thinks she has the potential to take a big step forward.
#11 Pink Sands (8/1) – This mare is going to get a good setup like she did in her last victory and loves Gulfstream.
Race 10: 1½ Mile. (Turf) G3 W. L. McKnight Stakes
Nothing creative, the logical contenders, no strong opinion: #1 Red Night (3/1), #7 Cross Border (9/2), #8 Pumpkin Rumble (8/1), #12 American Tattoo (7/2)
Race 11: 1 3/16 Mile. (Turf) G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes
The Conductor is going to toss #12 Magic Wand (7/2) from that post. She’s classy and can win, but loves to run 2nd and will be hammered at the windows. There is a trainer named Chad Brown you may have heard of who will win this race.
#3 Without Parole (4/1) – He ran well behind Uni on Breeders Cup Day last time and the Conductor thinks he’s a cut above this field. Most of his money will go through him.
#6 Instilled Regard (10/1) – The Conductor has always been a fan of this horse and is improving on the turf.
#11 Sacred Life (12/1) – He’s a hard knocker and the Conductor will use him defensively.
Race 12: 1 1/8 Mile. G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes
This race obviously completely changed with the scratch of Omaha Beach, but the Conductor thinks its now a much better betting race.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Seeking the Soul (30/1) – He went off form last fall but has had a long time off and is training well. His 2nd behind Seeking the Soul in last years Pegasus behind City of life would win this year’s running and he has the most back class. The Conductor has a feeling he’s going to run a big one and will key him in the exacta and trifecta.
#12 Bode Express (30/1) – He won’t be that price, but he’ll be on the lone lead and has the talent to take them all the way around if he can tick off favorable fractions. He was fractious last start and went too fast early, but his race two back and run behind Maximum Security as a 3-year-old show he has the talent.
#6 Higher Power (6/1) – He ran a very good 3rd in the BC Classic and there aren’t any Vino Rosso’s or Mckinzie’s in this field.
#10 Mucho Gusto (9/2) – The Conductor can’t toss him with his form against Maximum Security.