Good bounce back Saturday for the Conductor. Let’s finish the weekend strong.
Let’s whack’em right between the eyes. Skip.
| Race | A | B | C |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| 2 | 2, 5, 7, 9 | 1, 6 | |
| 3 | 3, 7, 10 | 1, 4, 5, 6 | |
| 4 | 1, 2 | 4, 6, 9 | |
| 5 | 7 | 1 | 2, 9, 11 |
| 6 | 1 | 3, 9, 10 | |
| 7 | 2 | 6 | 1, 4, 8, 9 |
| 8 | 6, 8 | 4, 10 | 7, 13 |
| 9 | 3, 6 | 1, 2, 8, 11 |
The Conductor sucked yesterday. Let’s be honest about it. The 15/1 horse in the turf sprint that got steamed down to 6/1 after the gates opened, and then won on the lead for fun — when he’s never been on the lead in his life — really soured the Conductor on Keeneland.
It’s tough to love this game when the CAWS are in bed with the tracks and the greedy bastards don’t give a shit about the horseplayer. That’s not a game. That’s a tax collection dressed up in silks.
But the Conductor doesn’t quit. The passengers don’t quit. We show up. We cap harder. We try again. Skip.
Be wary of the rain today — there might be some late scratches. The forecast doesn’t look bad enough to take the races off the turf, but watch the board before post time. Scratches reshape this card. Adapt accordingly.
| Race | Contenders |
|---|---|
| Race 1 | 1 / 2, 4 |
| Race 2 | 3, 4 / 2, 8, 9 |
| Race 3 | 3, 7 / 1, 8, 9, 10, 12 |
| Race 4 | 2 / 7 |
| Race 5 | 9, 10, 11 / 1, 7, 8 |
| Race 6 | 3 / 4, 8 / 7, 9, 10 |
| Race 7 | 1 / 3, 4, 7 |
| Race 8 | 3, 6 / 1, 11 |
| Race 9 | 1, 5, 8 / 4, 6 |
| Race 10 | 2, 4 / 1, 3, 5 |
| Race 11 | 12 / 3, 5, 7, 10 |
Watch the scratches. Don’t chase the steam. And remember — the Conductor doesn’t owe the CAWS a damn thing. We ride at our own pace.
New passenger? Subscribe to The Conductor’s Scroll — free to board, First Class for the full weekend card. And if you want to understand what the Conductor is actually doing before he writes these, start with the beginner’s guide to handicapping a horse race.
Opening Day at Keeneland has arrived, and the Conductor has rolled back into the station with a full head of steam. Today, every passenger — loyal or brand new — gets the full card.
But enjoy this generosity while it lasts.
Once the Conductor irons out the newsletter kinks, full cards will be reserved only for the truly loyal passengers who stay on board.
Skip.
5 / 2, 8
3 / 1, 5, 7, 12
2, 7 / 1, 8
2, 8, 9, 11, 12
1, 2, 7 / 3, 4
8, 9 / 1, 12, 13
7 / 3
7 / 1, 3, 4
2, 3, 4
7, 10, 12 / 2, 3, 5
Bye Bye Melvin got nailed in the final strides and Ballymore Star stunk Thursday. The Conductor really likes his prices today at Keeneland. Let’s head into the weekend with a full caboose. Skip
#4 Hay Dakota (8/1) – He ran sneaky well last time in a merry go round race off a break. Now stretching out for Maker, he’s working well and looks to get a favorable trip with a hot pace to run at.
#1 Girl Named Patsy (12/1) – This girl won very nicely last time off the layoff and is now switching back to turf. She’s in good form while many of the contenders in here are coming in off breaks. She should be able to but herself in a good position early and work out a favorable trip. For a turf sprint this race does not have much early pace.
#6 Senora Roma (8/1) – Trying turf for the first time off the bench, she has a major early pace advantage over this field. If she takes to the grass, she can wire the field.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Eres Tu (4/1) – This mare has been steadily progressing since last fall and ran huge off the layoff last time making an early move into a hot pace. She’ll be more fit today and will be the likely 4th betting choice in a competitive field.
The Conductor will not concede and start giving you passengers chalk. Go to any other site for that, the prices at Keeneland will come. Makers Mark Friday, always a treat. Let’s Ride.
#7 Tobys Heart (6/1) – Campanelle (8/5) looks very tough in here, but there are some other very talented runners. The distance proved too much for this girl last time off the layoff, but now she’s cutting back to a sprint. Both her wins at 5 1/2 furlongs have been very impressive.
#4 My Man Flintstone (10/1) – He may not win, but he’s a good trifecta key at a price. 2nd off the bench today, his numbers fit with this group and he looks to get a favorable trip tracking the leaders.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Darain (8/1) – This colt had a brutal trip last time at Keeneland in his allowance race and still won for fun. It doesn’t matter who he beat, the amount of The Conductor likes that Cox has given him two races to get acclimated from across the pond before giving him the acid test.
Spring has officially sprung. Now it’s Bluegrass Stakes day passengers and the Conductor is ready for war whenever you are. Skip!
#7 Kanthaka (6/1) – This sprint is loaded with early speed and this gelding is the Conductor’s favorite closer in the race. She undoubtedly runs her best off the layoff and looks to trip out in this spot as well.
#2 Pass the Champagne (4/1) – With the two favorites coming in off long layoffs, the Conductor is turning to the up and coming filly. He’s been impressed by her first two starts and she can use her early pace to make make the others earn it too.
#3 Mundaye Call (8/1) – The obvious lone speed in a sprint with no other pace. She obviously has every chance.
#5 Kimari (5/2) – This is a really cool filly whose versatility is remarkable. She can be placed anywhere in the race and win. Additionally, she can handle any surface.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Highly Motivated (3/1) – This Bluegrass Stakes devoid of pace, the Conductor is going to take a shot against the heavy favorite #4 Essential Quality (3/5). This colt’s right with him on numbers and is continuously running well after poor starts and tough trips. If he can break cleanly he should go right to the front and we’ll see how good he is. The talent is there and he’ll be at least 3x the price.
Breeders’ Cup Classic time. Skip.
#1 Tacitus (20/1) – The granddaddy of them all and a more competitive Classic than we’ve seen in recent years. There are many with a chance in here and this colt isn’t one of them. However, he is a consistent runner and they’ll likely go back to taking him off the pace today. Everyone hates this horse because he’s cost them money, but if he’s really that price the Conductor will use him in 3rd. He can see a scenario where he grinds away while the others try to win the race and picks up the bronze at a big number.
This colt has the most upside in the field. He got turned away in the derby, but he’s had some time to rest and can still improve. If you watch his Travers again, he never even takes it out of 2nd gear. That being said, there are some serious older racehorses in here and the Conductor will only use him as a backup.
#3 By My Standards (10/1) – This colt always runs his race, he’s just not as good as Improbable and Tom’s d’Etat. The Conductor can’t see a scenario where he jumps up to beat them here.
#4 Tom’s d’Etat (6/1) – Every passenger and their mother are picking this horse, so he may be in the 9/2 range. The Conductor understands the hype as the stumble cost him the race last time. He also ran a huge late pace figure. However, a stumble as a 7-year-old is a sign of going off form, which is likely why connections have trained him up to this race. He’s going to have to run his A+ race to win in here and the Conductor thinks that’s a tough ask.
#5 Title Ready (30/1) – He’ll drop to the back and try to make one run to pick up 3rd, but he’s not getting ready for any title.
#6 Higher Power (20/1) – He’ll need god to come down to his stall tonight for him to be competitive.
#7 Global Campaign (20/1) – This colt is improving this year, but that’s with him being on the early lead. He has a 0% chance of getting the lead in this race.
The Conductor thinks we’re going to get 3/1 in here as he’s not getting the respect he deserves. He’s turned into a real racehorse this year. Most importantly, the Ductor sees him getting a nice trip in this Breeders’ Cup Classic. Authentic and Maximum Security will get sent from his outside and he’ll be able to get the outside stalking trip that he loves. He’ll be in the clear and ready to pounce whenever he pleases. He’s the one to beat.
#9 Authentic (6/1) – This colt still has the Conductor’s brain in a pretzel. There really isn’t a ton of other speed in here other than Maximum Security and they’re both trained by Baffert. They won’t duel which will help his chances, but this feels like a bounce spot for him and he’ll have to run even better taking on older horses for the first time. The Conductor is going to watch how Swiss Skydiver fairs in the Distaff before he makes his final judgement. For now, he’s leaning against.
#10 Maximum Security (7/2) – The Conductor is going to toss him from the exacta. Improbable dusted him last time and the Conductor can’t see him turning the tables. He’ll be heavily bet because of his fame, but he’s going in the wrong direction.
Picks: 8
Breeders’ Cup Distaff time. Skip.
#1 Ce Ce (12/1) – This is the least competitive race Saturday in the Conductor’s opinion. He’d be shocked if anyone other than #5 Swiss Skydiver or #10 Monomoy Girl won. This filly can’t compete with them.
*#2 Harvest Moon (12/1) – This is the filly with upside that the Conductor will key in the exacta. If one of the big girls doesn’t fire she can get in there. She continues to steadily progress and answer each tougher test.
#3 Dunbar Road (12/1) – She’s digressed this year, no thanks.
#4 Horologist (8/1) – You can’t knock her last effort, but she’ll be the likely 3rd choice and this is a different class of runners.
#5 Swiss Skydiver (2/1) – This filly’s stretch run in the Preakness will make your hair stand up. She can take down Monomoy Girl unless the Preakness took too much out of her.
#6 Lady Kate (15/1) – She’ll set the early pace and then get engulfed.
#7 Point of Honor (30/1) – This girl has let the Conductor down too many times. However, she’ll be flying late and can round out the trifecta.
#8 Valiance (8/1) – Another possible candidate for 3rd. She is improving and ran very well last time over this Keeneland surface.
#9 Ollie’s Candy (10/1) – This mare always runs well and is chandelier. She hates the winners circle, 3rd at best.
*#10 Monomoy Girl (8/5) – Gun to head the Conductor thinks she’ll beat Swiss Skydiver, but he’s hoping for a showdown. She’s fresh and never loses.
Picks: 10 – 5 – 2
Breeders’ Cup Mile time, Skip.
#1 Circus Maximus (12/1) – This colt is going the wrong direction and the Conductor won’t use him.
#2 Kameko (6/1) – He draws well and the Conductor thinks he’s the most likely of the European contingent. He’s best at a mile and has a strong kick.
#3 Lope Y Fernandez (30/1) – The Conductor thinks he’ll improve with the added distance and may be able to grab 3rd at a big price.
#4 Siskin (15/1) – He’s another shipper that isn’t progressing. He won’t be used.
*#5 Digital Age (8/1) – He’s the Conductor’s 2nd choice in here. He ran very well to win the turf classic last time, which the Conductor thinks was a very fast race. He looks to get another good trip and is 2/2 at the distance.
#6 Safe Voyage (15/1) – This old man is a hard knocker and wouldn’t surprise the Conductor. The Ductor doesn’t see him winning though.
#7 Casa Creed (20/1) – He’s not good enough.
#8 March to the Arch (15/1) – He ran very well closing into a slow pace at Woodbine last time. His last two races have been strong, but his form in the states prior hasn’t been great. Watch to see how Starship Jubilee runs in the Filly and Mare turf and adjust accordingly.
#9 One Master (12/1) – If you use Safe Voyage, you must use One Master. Again, he can win but the Conductor prefers others.
#10 Halladay (12/1) – He ran well last time, although he set fast fractions all the speed horses held up. He won’t be able to clear #13 Factor This, so the Conductor won’t use him.
#11 Ivar (4/1) – Lol at the morning line. He was visually impressive last race, but got a nice trip with the flow. He can win this race but if he’s 4/1 with an outside draw you can’t bet him.
#12 Uni (5/1) – Looking to beat the boys again this year, she’s another that wouldn’t surprise the Conductor. However, he doesn’t think she’s as good as last year and she’ll have to really earn it.
*Gullet Shot of the Day #13 Factor This (8/1) – He draws a tough post, but he’s the Conductor’s top pick in here. Halladay is the only other speed and he has the option to clear him or sit right to his outside. He’s the one they’ll all have to catch turning for home.
#14 Raging Bull (8/1) – He’ll drop to the back of the pack and make one run. The Conductor can’t see him passing them all though.
Picks: 13 – 5 – 2
Breeders’ Cup Sprint time, Let’s Ride.
#1 Echo Down (20/1) – This is one of the weakest sprint fields in recent memory, but it leaves it open for the Conductor to make some real money on some prices. This colt isn’t one of them, he’d be a surprise.
#2 C Z Rocket (7/2) – He’s become a new animal in the Peter Miller barn (shocker). He can absolutely win this race but at a short price the Conductor doesn’t love him in his toughest challenge to date.
A Grade 1 winner, he finished behind C Z Rocket last time, but he got a sneaky weird trip stuck inside and galloped out in front. The Conductor sees Prat putting in a good spot early and he has every chance in this open rendition of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.
#4 Bon Raison (30/1) – He got a favorable trip last time in a race that melted down. He’s not a Grade 1 horse.
#5 Manny Wah (30/1) – The exact same notes as Bon Raison.
#6 Frank’s Rockette (10/1) – This filly is taking on the boys today and this is a good spot to do it. She can scoot and wouldn’t shock him. Does he love her? No.
#7 Whitmore (15/1) – This old man is a warrior and will be running late with a hot pace in front. However, his last few races haven’t been great and he’ll only be used underneath.
*#8 Firenze Fire (8/1) – The Conductor is a big fan of this horse and he has a major chance to win. The only concern is that all his best races are at Belmont.
#9 Empire of Gold (30/1) – He won’t get as favorable of a trip as he did last time. No thanks.
#10 Yaupon (7/2) – Taking on older males for the first time, this boy will rocket to the front. He has the most upside in the field and could put on a show, but he hasn’t beaten anyone yet. In his first real test at a short price coming in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, the Conductor is leaning against him.
#11 Diamond Oops (8/1) – He’s a very cool, versatile horse that always runs his race. Can he win? Sure, but he’s not a true Grade 1 sprinter.
#12 Hog Creek Hustle (30/1) – He’ll be closing late, but he’s not good enough to get into the exacta.
#13 Jasper Prince (30/1) – A Japanese sprinter with inconsistent form? Pass.
#15 Lasting Legacy (30/1) – It will be tough to work out any sort of trip from here.
Picks: 3 – 8 – 2 – 10
