Tag: keeneland picks

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf Picks and Analysis

on By
Two racehorses competing closely with jockeys during a horse racing event.

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf time, Let’s Ride.

Saturday, November 7 – Race 7: 1 3/8 Mile. (Turf) F.G1 Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

#1 Starship Jubilee (10/1) – There are many awesome, gutsy, mares in this group and she is one of them. She beat the boys up at Woodbine last time. She wouldn’t surprise the Conductor, but he prefers others.

*#2 Sistercharlie (6/1) – This mare may have lost a step, but she hasn’t had pace to run at in her two starts this year. With a 14-horse field, she should get a fair chance to win this race again and the Conductor can’t wait to watch her try. If she can go out on top, the Conductor will be part of it, especially at a decent price.

#3 Peaceful (12/1) – This filly is well meant, but she’s coming off a poor effort and this is a lot to ask. The Conductor is against her.

#4 Mean Mary (7/2) – She was very game in defeat in the Diana, but she did have a favorable trip setting a slow pace. The Conductor can’t see her turning the tables on Rushing Fall.

#5 My Sister Nat (12/1) – The Conductor is tossing every runner in here exiting the Flower Bowl. He doesn’t think it was a very strong race.

*#6 Rushing Fall (5/2)

Most of the Conductor’s play will go through this classy mare. She should sit a similar trip today right on Mean Mary’s hip and get first run on the closers.

Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf

#7 Terebellum (20/1) – She showed a nice burst last time, but tired quickly. The Conductor thinks this is too much to ask.

#8 Mucho Unusual (30/1) – This isn’t California turf. No chance.

#9 Harvey’s Lil Goil (20/1) – The Conductor is a fan of this filly, but she gets the acid test today vs older. The Conductor doesn’t think she’s there yet.

#10 Civil Union (12/1) – Flower Bowl? Chuck.

#11 Audarya (12/1) – This is the European the Conductor likes most in here. She’s in good form and is exiting a very tough race where she ran well.

#12 Lady Prancealot (30/1) – No chance

#13 Nay Lady Nay (20/1) – Flower Bowl? Toss.

#14 Cayenne Pepper (8/1) – She ran very well last time with a favorable trip. It will be very hard for her to work out a trip from this post.

Picks: 6 – 2 – 11

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Picks and Analysis

on By
Racehorse Golden Cents with jockey racing at a horse track, showcasing speed and agility during a competition.

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile time, Skip.

Saturday, November 7 – Race 6: 1 Mile. G1 Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

*#1 Art Collector (6/1) – This is one of the Conductor’s favorite races on Saturday. Almost no horse would shock him, but he has three horses he really likes, and this colt is on top of that list. He had him in the Preakness and he didn’t fire a great effort. However, he had a hiccup before the derby and the Conductor doesn’t think he showed his true self. He likes him cutting back to a sprint and his two bullet works entering Saturday.

breeders' cup dirt mile

#2 Sharp Samurai (15/1) – He seems to run his race and hit the board regardless of distance and surface. He doesn’t like to win though, and the Conductor can’t see it against this group.

*#3 Silver Dust (30/1) – The Conductor will use him underneath at a big number, maaaaybe as a backup on top. He’s another consistent runner and ran well last time with a tough trip. He doesn’t love the winners circle.

#4 War of Will (10/1) – A Grade 1 winner on turf and dirt, he’s a contender in this field but the Conductor is leaning against him. He’s better on turf.

*#5 Knicks Go (7/2) – This colt has become a new animal in the Cox barn (shocker). Setting the record last time, the Conductor sees him burying the other speed horses. He’s a must use.

#6 Mr. Money (20/1) – He ran a big race last time pressing a hot pace. The Conductor just doesn’t think he’s good enough.

#7 Rushie (20/1) – Another last race the Conductor can’t knock and this colt wouldn’t shock the Conductor. However, he doesn’t look fast enough.

#8 Pirate’s Punch (20/1) – The Conductor is a fan of this horse and he has wicked early speed. He is up against the pace scenario in here and the Conductor can’t see him getting a winning trip.

#9 Mr Freeze (6/1) – He was very game last time in the Fayette at the expense of the Conductor.

He can win, but at a short price the Conductor won’t use him. He’ll likely win just to haunt his dreams.

#10 Complexity (2/1) – He is a big play against for the Conductor as the favorite. He’s going to have to deal with a hot pace and in his lone try at two turns he’s still running.

#11 Jesus’ Team (30/1) – This colt nabbed 3rd at 40/1 in the Preakness to light up the tri. He could clunk up for 3rd again, but no better.

*#12 Owendale (8/1) – This is the perfect spot for this colt, shortening in distance and dropping to the back of the back early while the leaders duke it out. His best race came at Keeneland last year and he’s the Conductor’s favorite closer in here.

Picks: 1 – 12 – 5 – 3

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint Picks and Analysis

on By
Belvoir Bay, a thoroughbred horse, racing at the Breeders Cup with a jockey in pink and white attire, showcasing speed and agility.

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint time, Skip.

Saturday, November 7 – Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

*#1 Big Runnuer (12/1) – Another race we don’t have to go far for the Conductor to get his key. There is not a lot a lot of early speed in here and he should be able to clear the field from the rail. He may be able to steal this open race gate to wire.

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

#2 Just Might (30/1) – He is the only horse that could make it tough on Big Runnuer early. He has early gas, but always seems to fade late.

#3 Imprimis (4/1) – He’s a good gelding, but he got a nice trip last time and doesn’t seem to get the job done against the toughest competition. At a short price, the Conductor is against him.

#4 Front Run the Fed (12/1) – This colt had a tougher trip than Imprimis and was right there. He’ll be a better price, but still isn’t one of the Conductor’s favorites.

#5 Wet Your Whistle (15/1) – He got an easy trip last time and has back class. Again, the Conductor doesn’t like his chances.

#6 Glass Slippers (12/1) – The Conductor doesn’t like the Euros in these sprints typically. He’s torn on this filly as this isn’t the strongest American contingent. She’s a fighter but he thinks this task is likely too much to ask.

#7 Leinster (4/1) – He loves Keeneland and won nicely last time with a perfect trip. He can absolutely win this race but he’s no standout. At a short price the Conductor doesn’t love him.

#8 Oleksandra (12/1) – If you want to watch a mare mow, watch her last race. She has a thunderous late kick. However, the Conductor thinks she’ll be more in the 5/1 race and will be up against it without a hot pace in front of her. The Ductor is leaning against.

#9 Into Mystic (12/1) – She ran too well to lose over this turf course last time without a perfect trip. The Conductor will absolutely use her again especially if she’s around that price.

*#10 Bombard (15/1)

This is the Conductor’s other favorite price in the race. He ran huge setting a hot pace last time and was just nailed at the wire. The shorter distance will help his chances and he has the early speed to put him in a good position early.

Shore bombardment Pt II - GIF on Imgur

#11 Wildman Jack (15/1) – Since the Conductor likes Big Runnuer, he must like this boy. He ran a good 2nd last time with a troubled trip and ran a big race vs Grade 1 company on dirt two back. The concern is that he gets hung wide.

#12 Got Stormy (7/2) – This mare is all class, but the Conductor is against her as the likely favorite. She’ll have to drop to the back of the pack from this post and will have a lot to do to get to the wire first.

#13 Texas Wedge (20/1) – Peter Miller has dominated this race, which scares the Conductor. However, she’s a toss from this post.

#14 Extravagant Kid (15/1) – The Conductor doesn’t see how he can work out a trip from here either.

Picks: 1 – 10 – 12 – 9

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint Picks and Analysis

on By
A group of horses racing on a dirt track during a competition with jockeys in colorful attire.

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint time, Skip.

Saturday, November 7 – Race 4: 7 Furlongs. F.G1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

*#1 Speech (6/1) – She’s one of the Conductor’s key horses for Saturday. She had a tough trip behind Swiss Skydiver last time. Cutting back to 7 furlongs, her race at Keeneland was her best and she ran right with Gamine at Oaklawn. She looks to get a good trip behind dueling leaders.

breeders' cup filly and mare sprint

#2 Gamine (7/5) – Cutting back to a sprint, this girl is a freak. She’s going to have to duel Serengeti Empress, but the Conductor sees her winning that battle. He’ll toss the Empress and press Gamine.

#3 Come Dancing (8/1) – This old mare is a solid filly and will get a good trip, but the Conductor doesn’t think she’s good enough.

#4 Inthemidstofbiz (30/1) – She’s going to get cooked up close to a hot pace.

#5 Sconsin (20/1) – This filly got a great setup last time and will get another good one here. However, the Conductor doesn’t see her better than 3rd.

#6 Venetian Harbor (8/1) – She needs the lead and isn’t going to get it. She’s a complete toss for the Conductor.

#7 Serengeti Empress (3/1) – She’s a great mare and all guts. If she somehow wins the duel with Gamine and holds on the Conductor will tip his cap.

#8 Sally’s Curlin (20/1) – She’ll be running for 3rd and may be able to get it only if it’s a complete meltdown.

#9 Bell’s the One (6/1) – This is a classy filly and running her best this year. She nailed Serengeti Empress last time with a great trip and looks to get a similar trip again. The Conductor prefers Speech, but she wouldn’t surprise him.

Picks: 1-2-9

Keeneland: Late Pick 5 Key Horses for Friday, October 23

on By
keeneland

Damn Conductor, I lost my pinky Wednesday and the rest of my fingers Thursday! Well son, if you don’t have any fingers it’s easier to make a fist. This sport is hard, back in the ring at Keeneland. PS. Baffert being the face of the sport is a disgrace.

keeneland

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 70k

#9 Color of Dawn (1/1) is clearly the most likely winner after just missing in her debut. If your looking for some value, the Conductor likes the #7 Blarney Girl (15/1). Garcia takes the mount for a small barn and trainer Michael Ewing is 14% with a +$2.53 ROI this year with first time starters.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (OFF Turf) F.Alw 71000n1x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #12 Lea’s Princess (10/1) – This girl ran huge last time t Keeneland, pressing a hot pace and just tiring late. Shortening back to 5 ½ furlongs is just what the Conductor wants to see, and the dirt will be no problem.

keeneland

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. Clm 40000n2L

#1 Prioritizer (12/1) – 1st off the claim for Bob Hess Jr., this colt was bumped at the start before dueling and fading last time. His maiden breaker two back certainly fits with this group and he has an early pace edge over this field. They’ll send him from the rail and he can slip away at a nice number.

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 75000n3x

#7 Complicit (12/1) – This filly was in against Grade 1 company last time and was over matched. In her prior two efforts, she hit the board at big odds and is also shortening up to her best distance today. The Conductor will key her in the trifecta at a juicy number.

Race 10: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 70k

#8 Super Sport (6/1) – She was heavily bet in her debut and showed early speed after a tough start. She’s certainly working well coming into today and the Conductor thinks she’ll show what she’s really made of today.

Keeneland: Late Pick 4 for Wednesday, October 21

on By
A group of racehorses competing on a dirt track with a large crowd in the background, showcasing the excitement of horse racing events.

Finally we get back to the action. Two days off has the Conductor shaking. The races coming off the turf at Keeneland  is disappointing, but we play the cards we’re dealt. Let’s Ride..

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 40000

#2 Intrepid Heart (5/2) – He’s won his last two starts nicely and is clearly the one to beat. The fact that Pletcher didn’t bump him up in class today at Keeneland does make the Conductor a little nervous.

#5 Mi Tres Por Ciento (4/1) – He stumbled and lost the jock at the start of the last race. However, he was running well vs tougher in all his prior races and gets a big class drop today. He didn’t run poorly last time, he never had a chance. 4/1 would be a great price.

Other Contenders: #1 Jungle Warfare (8/1), #3 Lone Rock (6/1)

Race 6: 1 1/16 Mile. (OFF Turf) F.Alw 73000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #5 Golden Curl (4/1) – She’s much improved routing on the grass in the last two. She looks to get another good trip and her effort last time will win again here. She has the best dirt form of the group and will be forwardly placed in a race without much other pace. 4/1 would be a gift from the pony gods.

keeneland

Other Contenders: #5 Naughty Joker (5/1)

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. F.Alw 71000n1x

#1 Impeccable Style (7/2) – She’s pressed hot paces routing in her last few and finally gets the cutback in distance she needs today. Trainer Brendan Walsh is also 24% with a +$1.11 ROI with new horses in the barn this year,

#2 O Seraphina (9/2) – Returning after a long layoff, her races in the spring fit with this group on numbers. With natural maturity she is very dangerous in here for a barn that hits at 21% with a +$0.30 ROI off the bench.

Other Contenders: #8 Never Forget (3/1)

Race 8: 1 3/8 Mile. (OFF Turf) F.Mdn 70k

#1 Captain Ginny B (20/1) – This race is wide open with the race coming off the turf, but this is a bomb the Conductor will absolutely be using if she stays in. She did some running in her debut on turf and is bred to be just as good on turf. Trainer Tim Austin wins with horses like these at big prices. He’s 23% with a +$4.34 ROI with shippers this year.

Graded Stakes Plays at Keeneland and Belmont Park

on By
A steam locomotive being assembled in a factory with workers present around it.

The late pick 5 paid over 30k yesterday at Keeneland, that would have been nice. The Conductor was happy to have a piece of Sugoi at 23/1 though. That salvaged his day and kept the train filled with coal. Not great cards at Keeneland or Belmont today so the Conductor will take the train out west mainly. He’ll post his Golden Hour Pick 4 at Santa Anita and Golden Gate later. Let’s Ride.

 

Belmont Park:

Race 3: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) G2 Knickerbocker Stakes

#4 En Wye Cee (2/1) – This improving Pletcher colt will only be making his 2nd career start on grass. The other contenders are nothing special in the Conductor’s opinion and there is absolutely no pace I the race. En Wye Cee should be able to dictate the terms on the front end and make them catch him down the stretch.

Keeneland

Race 9: 1 Mile. (Turf) G2 Hill Prince

#7 Buy Land and See (4/1) – Stretching out from a sprint, he’ll have first run when they turn for home. The Conductor likes his works and he’s best going this distance. The exacta will be him and #3 Decorated Invador (1/1). Nothing more, nothing less.

Keeneland:

Race 8: 1½ Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Rood and Riddle Dowager Stakes

#2 Blame Debbie (2/1) – She’s in good form while the others are searching for it. The Conductor like that she’s already won over the Keeneland turf this meet as well.

Keeneland: Raven Run Stakes Late Pick 5

on By
Two jockeys racing on brown horses during a competitive horse race, showcasing speed and athleticism in the sport.

The Conductor nailed the 7th race yesterday, then there was a head scratcher in the 8th that blew up his tickets. With the questionable weather in New York, the Conductor will do battle with Keeneland again for the Raven Run Stakes. Very competitive fields and great betting opportunities. The Conductor wants the finest cuts of meat still bleeding on his table tonight, not McDonalds. Let’s Ride.

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. Alw 50000s

*Gullet Shot of the Day #6 Yankee Seven (10/1) – We haven’t seen this gelding since March, but he’s posting strong works for a barn that hits at 19% clip off the bench. He’s shown versatility and consistency in his young career and if he has matured during his time off, the Conductor can see him surprising the passengers.

Other Contenders: #1 Cool Bobby (2/1), #2 Jessup (5/2)

Race 7: 7 Furlongs. F.Mdn 70k

#6 Mia at Midnight (30/1) – You can make a case for all in here with many 1st time starters. The Conductor will include this bomb shipping in from Woodbine. She was green in her debut and was ridden like it was a prep. She has nice works coming into today.

Other Contenders: #2 Hippie Cowgirl (5/1), #4 Miss Dial (6/1), #10 Wicked Bisou (4/1), #11 Thinking (9/2)

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Alw 75000n3x

#7 Corelli (5/1) – The Conductor will throw out her last race over soft turf. Her 3rd two back at Monmouth vs Grade 1 company beats this field.

raven run stakes

Other Contenders: #6 Bizzee Channel (15/1), #12 Sugoi (12/1) – Both are dangerous if left alone on the front end.

Race 9: 7 Furlongs. F.G2 Raven Run Stakes

This is a hell of a race as well. #2 Four Graces (5/2) and #5 Venetian Harbor (7/5) are obvious contenders, but there look to be many live prices as well.

#8 Fair Maiden (15/1) – This filly ran a huge late pace figure in her win last race. That was her first race of the year and also her first ever race on dirt. She showed she could run against Grade 1 company on turf last year and the Conductor loves her upside 2nd off the layoff.

#10 Secret Keeper (12/1) – A west coast dirt horse shipping east and cutting back to a sprint, the Conductor must use her. She’s beaten some nice Baffert horses sprinting and has talent.

Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 20000n2L

#9 El Supremo (7/2) – The Conductor doesn’t have a strong opinion in the finale. He was up close to a hot pace last time and is dropping in class today.

Other Contenders: #1 Why Why Paul Why (5/1), Quarterback Dak (5/2), #10 Czechmight (6/1)

Keeneland: Pin Oak Valley View Stakes Late Pick 4

on By
A lineup of thoroughbred racehorses at the starting gate at Keeneland, featuring jockeys in colorful silks ready for the race.

The 45/1 shot in the 6th at Keeneland Thursday has the Conductor kicking himself. Elie Z had enough early gas to make the lead on paper, which is always dangerous in a turf sprint. Hopefully a few of you passengers hit a nice exacta or trifecta in the Sycamore Stakes however, with #1 Postulation running 2nd at 7/1. Friday is finally here, time to mix in a little more stew to our pony diet today. Let’s ride.

Race 7: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) Alw 73000n2x

#7 High Crime (8/1) – This colt’s early pace figures are off the charts and he’ll be on the lead early. Shortening back to 5 ½ furlongs will help his chances.

Other Contenders: #2 Power End (10/1), #9 Explorer (5/2), #11 Competitive Saint (7/2)

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. OC 150000n4x

#6 Admiral Lynch (2/1) – Dropping in class 2nd off the layoff, his race at Saratoga two back gets the job done here.

#4 Seven Nation Army (12/1) – He ran a very strong race last time, pressing a hot pace wide around the track. He’s improving is 3rd off the layoff and has good early speed.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G3 Pin Oak Valley View Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #10 Outburst (20/1) – Stretching out 3rd off the layoff, she’s a Grade 3 winner, which many of these contenders can’t claim. She looks to be sitting on a big effort at a massive price.

Keeneland

Other Contenders: #1 Duolpoly (9/2), #11 Stunning Sky (7/2), #12 Antoinette (5/2)

Race 9: 6½ Furlongs. F.Clm 20000n2L

#8 Veiled Vixen (5/1) – Dropping in class at Keeneland off a long layoff, she’s working well and will beat this field. If she runs her race, she ins for fun.

Other Contenders: #3 Ms. Malevolence (5/1), #5 Competitive Fire (15/1)

Keeneland: Sycamore Stakes Pick 3 for Thursday, October 15

on By
A horse with the number 12 on its saddle walking in front of a crowd at Keeneland Racecourse.

A nice 9/2 winner on top in the 7th and late pick 4 that paid $334.10 for 50 cents is what the passengers ordered on Wednesday, and that’s what the Conductor delivered. As a happy passenger myself, I’ll certainly buy multiple t-shirts at the train station right away! Sycamore Stakes time, Let’s Ride.

The Good Ductor never settles, however. Keeneland is calling again, Let’s Ride.

Race 8: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Alw 73000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Yes Its Ginger (10/1) – She presses a scorching pace and tired over a demanding Kentucky Downs turf course last time. Shortening back to 5 ½ furlongs today, her early gas will be more dangerous and she’s working like a rocket.

sycamore stakes

Other Contenders: #10 Violenza (5/1)

Race 7: 1 3/16 Mile. Alw 71000n1x

The Conductor thinks Ian Wilkes has a major chance to get off the schneid at Keeneland in this race with two live runners in here.

#1 Don Bourbon (9/2) – 2nd off the layoff today, he ran very well last race to finish 2nd with a troubled trip. The added distance will help him here and he’ll be in a good spot early up close to a slow pace.

#5 Letmeno (4/1) – He stumbled at the break and lost all chance last time. 2nd off the layoff today, the Conductor want to see the tactics used to cross the wire first in the Iowa Derby two back. Go right to the front in a race devoid of pace.

Other Contenders: #9 Spa City (7/2)

Race 8: 1½ Mile. (Turf) G3 Sycamore Stakes

#10 Ziyad (5/2) – His European form lays over this Grade 3 American field. 1st time Lasix for Motion, he’ll be very tough to beat. However, the Conductor likes two prices to include underneath

#1 Postulation (15/1) – Throw out his last race over soft turf last time and this old man fits with this group. He nearly wired the field two back against tougher over this turf course and has good tactical speed.

#5 Big Agenda (10/1) – The “Other Maker” in here, he unsurprisingly has taken big steps forward in the new barn. Winner of his last two, he will be forwardly placed and trending in the right direction.

Other Contenders: #2 Red Night (3/1), #6 Aquaphobia (5/2)