Tag: keeneland picks

Keeneland: Late Pick 4 for Wednesday, October 14

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A thrilling horse race featuring multiple jockeys in colorful silks on a dirt track, with a large crowd in the background.

Only one day of rest for the Conductor as Keeneland comes back today. He missed that 13/1 shot to start the late pick 4 at Belmont Monday, but hopefully some passengers cashed on the late double that paid 24/1. Small fields in the early races at Keeneland, so the Conductor will look toward the latter half of the card. Let’s Ride.

Race 5: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 70k

#5 Take Charge Ro (3/1) – The Conductor sees this as a chalky maiden race. None of the first-time starters catch his eye other than the Cox runner. This filly is coming off a long layoff, but working well for a quality barn and her last race makes her clearly the one to beat in here.

Other Contenders: #4 Santa Guapa (5/2)

Race 6: 6½ Furlongs. F.Mdn 70k

*Double Barreled Buckshot #4 Chewy Chewy Good (12/1) – She made a nice early wide move before flattening down the lane last time. 3rd off the layoff and shortening ½ furlong today, the Conductor sees her taking a big step forward.

#7 April in Paris (8/1) – She tired after setting the pace off a layoff last time. The shorter distance and extra fitness will help her here and she showed ability in the summer.

keeneland

Other Contenders: #1 Dovima (5/2), #2 Motown Girl (8/1), #3 Movie Moxie (3/1), #8 Here Comes Josie (15/1)

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 100000n2x

#9 Regal Beauty (10/1) – This is a very competitive field and a great betting race. This filly is steadily progressing in the Calhoun barn and the Conductor sees her being even better shortening to 6 furlongs. Doubt we’ll get 10/1 but she still should be a good price.

Other Contenders: #4 Lexi On the Move (7/2), #5 Charming Lady (4/1), #8 Purrfectly Claire (9/2)

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. MC 15000

#7 Oak Room (5/1) – Another difficult race with many big class droppers, the Conductor will land on this colt. He showed some ability in his debut and has been well bet in every start. Trainer Ron Moquett is 31% with a +$1.38 ROI dropping horses 2+ classes this year.

Other Contenders: #6 Champers (4/1), #8 Continental Clash (6/1)

Belmont and Keeneland: Graded Stakes Picks October 10

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A gray racehorse with a jockey wearing a purple helmet and green and white silks racing on a dirt track.

Not great at Belmont yesterday, but the Conductor started seeing the ball well at Keeneland and was able to get a few body shots in. The tracks can only defend themselves for so long, plenty of quality racing today. Let’s Ride.

Belmont Park:

Race 4: 1 Mile. C1 Champagne Stakes

#5 Reinvestment Risk (8/5) – This colt ran behind #4 Jackie’s Warrior (3/5) last time, but the Conductor thinks he can turn the tables. He’s bred to go longer and the extra furlong today will help his cause.

Race 5: 1 Mile. F.Frizette-G1 Frizette Stakes

The Conductor prefers #1 Vequist (2/1) over the #2 Cantata (9/5). Vequist has been tested by winners and gutted them like a fish.

#6 Get On the Bus (20/1) – A bomb that the Conductor will use underneath, this filly looks to get a nice trip with a hot pace to close into. She should improve on the stretch-out and O’neil clearly thinks highly of her, throwing her into graded stakes right away.

Keeneland

Race 8: 1 ¼ Mile (Turf) G1 Flower Bowl

#1 Cambier Parc (5/2) – The Conductor has always been a fan of this filly. 2nd off the layoff for Chad she’s the one to beat.

#4 La Signare (8/1) – She’s been facing tougher competition than this group and has run well despite not getting into the winner’s circle. At a nice price in a small field the Conductor will include her.

Race 9: 1 ¼ Mile. G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes

#4 Tacitus (1/1) – This isn’t a great betting race, but Tacitus should destroy this field (tell me if you’ve heard that before). He’s let people down enough times that he may be a higher price than he should. The Conductor will take anything over even money.

Race 10: 1 Mile (Turf) G2 Sands Point

This looks like another chalky race to the Conductor. #1 Tamahere (5/2) will be is top pick, but #3 Selflessly and #5 Miss J McKay (7/2) are the only other winning contenders and he doesn’t have a strong opinion.

Keeneland:

Race 8: 1 1/8 Mile. G2 Hagyard Fayette Stakes

Now this is a good gambling race and the Conductor likes some prices.

*Double Barreled Buckshot #1 Coastal Defense (6/1) – This colt continues to steadily progress and improve the further he runs. He can put himself in a good spot early and wont tire.

#10 Aurelius Maximus (10/1) – This colt was well meant as a baby and has struggled to stay on the racetrack. He looked very good in his comeback win off a break last time and looks to be sitting on a big one 2nd off the layoff.

Keeneland

The Conductor will mainly be using those two, but #4 Mirinaque (15/1) is an intriguing bomb that he will use a little bit as well. He was ultra-consistent in Argentina on both turf and dirt and against massive fields. His only race in the states was behind Maximum Security and he didn’t show his best that day. He’s a wildcard that will be a huge number.

Race 9: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) F.G1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup S

#4 Magic Attitude (5/2) – This filly looked smooth as silk in her first start in the US last time. The Conductor thinks she’ll be very tough to beat.

#6 Hendy Woods (10/1) – She was checked hard in her last start and was still able to run 2nd behind Sharing, who would be favored in here. She’ll be a nice price and take a big step forward with a clean trip.

#1 Harvey’s Little Goyle (3/1) – The Conductor has been impressed by her versatility at Keeneland and the shorter distance will help her today.

Keeneland: Spot Plays for Friday, October 9

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A group of jockeys riding horses during a race at Keeneland, with trees in bloom in the background.

The Conductor is going to shorten up on Keeneland today. He’ll focus on the higher quality races. Let’s Ride.

 

Race 8: 7 Furlongs. OC 80000n3x

Doubled Barreled Buckshot Play of the Day #6 Lasting Legacy (9/2) – This is a very competitive field and a great betting race. This horse crossed the wire 1st last time off a short break and looks primed to run his best 2nd off the layoff. He has class in his form lines and hasn’t run a bad race in the last two years. He’ll have good early position as well.

#7 Rubus (12/1) – This gelding has progressed in each of his 4 starts this year and is exiting a nice victory at Churchill Downs. He gets back to Keeneland, where he does his best running and is in the best form of his career.

Keeneland

Race 9: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) F.Buffalo Trace Franklin County Stakes

#2 Into Mystic (6/1) – #10 Got Stormy (6/5) is clearly the one to beat, but this will be her first time going this short of a distance. The distance was too long for Into Mystic last time. However, she will shorten up to her preferred 5 ½ furlongs today. She has good early speed and will be able to get the jump on Got Stormy turning for home. Whether Got Stormy runs her down her not will be up to the pony gods, but it is a simple exacta either way.

Keeneland: Key Horses for Wednesday, October 7

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Concrete Rose, a thoroughbred racehorse, galloping during a race with a jockey in purple and white attire, showcasing speed and agility.

Graded stakes, full fields and plenty of juicy prices. That’s just what the Ductor ordered at Keeneland on a Wednesday. Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 1/8 Mile. Mdn 70k

*Best Bet #2 Airstreem (8/1) – The Conductor is praying we get a price around this morning line. This colt was bet to favoritism off a year layoff last time, was 4wide into the first turn and was sitting behind a slow pace. Trainer Kelsey Danner is 10% with a +$1.38 ROI this year with runners 2nd off the layoff.

Other Contenders: 6

Race 2: 1 Mile. F.Clm 30000n2L

Windpipe Whack Wednesday Bomb of the Day #3 Templuna (15/1) – Throw out her last race sprinting on synthetic, this girl fits right in with this group at a big price. She drops in class to her lowest career level and is clearly best routing on dirt with limited opportunities. Trainer John Wainwright is only 3% this year, but is 3/18 with a +$0.03 ROI with runners going sprint to route.

Keeneland

Other Contenders: 5,6

Race 3: 1½ Mile. (Turf) Alw 73000n2x

#9 So High (12/1) – The Conductor likes is gelding’s European form and is consistent runner. He’s run in the exacta 5/7 times and on three different surfaces. The distance is his friend as well.

Other Contenders: 5,8

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. F.OClm 10000

#6 I Dream of Lois (6/1) – This mare ran sneaky well sprinting on the turf last time vs tougher. She made up ground, closing wide into a slow pace and she’s an old warrior. She’ll be able to work out a good trip in this race up close to a slow pace, and trainer Thomas Vance is 32% with a +$2.44 ROI this year switching runners from turf to dirt.

Other Contenders: 1,7

Race 5: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Alw 71000n1x

#6 Battalion (12/1) – He’s run well in his last two starts with trouble at the start and the step up in class today is deceiving. The Saratoga shippers seem to be firing at Keeneland early in the meet.

Other contenders: 2,9

Race 6: 7 Furlongs. F.Alw 25000s

#6 La Femme Royale (9/2) – The layoff doesn’t concern the Conductor since she’s won multiple times off long breaks and is working consistently. She draws a nice post, can go to the lead or sit right off and she loves to win.

Other Contenders: Queen Nakia (1/1)

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.G2 JPMorgan Chase Jessamine Stakes

#7 Aunt Pearl (3/1) – This filly looked like the goods in her debut. The Conductor sees her putting on a show today.

Single!

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs. MC 30000

#2 Vedder (4/1) – Cutting back to a sprint and trying dirt for the first time, he posted a bullet last work at Keeneland and looks to run a career best. Trainer Eddie Keneally is also 22% with a +$1.12 ROI with runners 2nd off the layoff.

Other Contenders: 8

Keeneland: Key Horses for Saturday, October 3

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A large crowd gathered at a spring horse racing event with people and horses on a grassy area.

That would be the Conductor’s last winner yesterday, despicable. Great card again today and the Conductor will be firing away at both Pimlico and Keeneland. The anticipation mounts.

Race 6: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) G2 Woodford Stakes

#4 Just Might (5/1) – This gelding should have no problem getting a solo lead based on his early pace figures. 2nd off the layoff, improving and his 3rd last race was flattered by Diamond Oops yesterday. There is a lot to like.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. F.G2 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes

#2 Dos Vinos (7/2) – The pace looks to be hot in this one and the Conductor sees this filly getting a perfect trip. She should be able to get first run sitting just behind the dueling frontrunners

Race 8: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.G1 First Lady Stakes

#4 Newspaperofrecord (8/5) – #1 Beau Recall (2/1) beat her last time, but the Conductor sees her turning the tables here. There is no other speed in this race and she can dictate the terms on the front end. The Conductor also thinks #5 Uni (5/2) has lost a step.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. G1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity

#9 King Fury (12/1) – This 950k son of Curlin won his debut at two turns, which is very difficult to do. He also had a 4wide trip around both turns. He’s the only horse in the field proven at this distance and there is no telling how much he can improve today at Keeneland.

Race 10: 1 Mile. (Turf) G1 Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #8 Analyze It (9/2) – Coming back from a two-year layoff last time, he easily beat a Grade 3 field. Chad Brown puts him right back into Grade 1 company today and the Conductor has seen this move 1000 times before. When Chad’s aggressive with horses off long breaks, they’re live.

Keeneland

Keeneland: Key Horses for Friday, October 2nd

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A group of racehorses competing on a dirt track with a large crowd in the background, showcasing the excitement of horse racing events.

The Conductor prays Keeneland is open in the spring and he can roll in the grass with a bottle of stew.

Race 6: 1 Mile. F.OC 75000n2L

*Force Feed Friday Play of the Day #7 Lady Lilly (9/2) – Dropping out of G1 stakes company, she was up close to a very hot pace and still ran well. Additionally, she’s bred to improve stretching out and anything above 7/2 would be very tasty.

Keeneland

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 71000n1x

#3 Sursum Corda (5/1) – This filly was too far back behind a tepid pace going longer last time out. Her maiden breaker two back was very impressive, and she has the best late pace figures in the field. The Conductor likes the shorter distance for her as well.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. G2 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes

#6 Echo Town (8/1) – Cutting back to his preferred sprint distance, this colt looks to get a perfect trip sitting just behind a contested pace.

#12 Midnight Sands (12/1) – 2nd off the layoff and making his 2nd start at Keeneland, this boy is battle tested and loves to win. He was heavily bet last time and is also posting bullet works coming into today. Rosario taking the mount for a trainer he never rides for certainly caught the Conductor’s eye as well.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes

#1 Thoughtfully (3/1) – 950k at auction, this girl has romped in her first two starts. She’s also bred to get better stretching out and the Conductor likes her consistent work tab.

Force Feed Friday: The Conductor’s Plays at Keeneland

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A large crowd gathered at a horse racing event, with spectators enjoying the races and horses on the track under a blue sky.

The Conductor needs to start winning at Keeneland or he’ll be dead in a ditch in no time. Let’s Ride.

 

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 50000n2L

#5 Tidal Effect (7/2) – Shipping in from California, she’s working well and the Conductor thinks he’s best.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 71k

#2 Repossession (5/1) – This filly was 750k at the Keeneland sale and is well bred for the lawn. She’s working well for strong connections.

Race 3: 1 Mile. MC 50000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Drew (15/1) – This colt was heavily bet in his debut and didn’t run a step after an awkward step. He’s posting bullet works entering today and can surprise at a big number.

keeneland

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. MC 30000

#10 Cold Smoke (3/1) – This colt is dropping in class and was heavily bet in his debut. The Conductor likes that Rosario hops aboard.

Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs. F.Alw 73000n3x

#4 Lady Worthington (6/1) – This filly pressed a hot pace at Saratoga last start before fading. That race has come back live.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. F.Mdn 71k

#3 Bayerness (8/1) – This daughter of Bayern has a solid work tab and trainer Cherie DeVaux is 22% with a +$4.28 ROI with 1st time starters this year.

Race 7: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 77000n3x

#1 Midnight Tea Time (9/2) – He’s exiting a victory and the Conductor loved his effort at Saratoga two back.

Race 8: 1 1/16 Mile. F.OC 100000n2x

#1 Shanghai Rain (10/1) – This filly has shown versatility and is exiting a blowout win in her first try on turf. The Conductor thinks that’s where she’ll be best.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. F.(Turf) 150k Pin Oak Valley View Stakes

#11 The Mackem Bullet (10/1) – She’s returning after a long layoff, but if she’s any ware close to 10/1 you passengers must bet her.

Race 10: 1 1/6 Mile. Clm 20000n2L

#4 Violent Storm (5/2) – Close the windows and batten down the hatches.

Throat Shot Thursday: The Conductor’s Plays at Keeneland

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Horses racing at Keeneland during the spring meet with jockeys in colorful silks.

How in gods name is it only Thursday. Keeneland time, Let’s Ride.

Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 71k

#8 Ahsad (8/1) – Making his 3rd career start, he’s run well in his first two closing into slow paces. He’ll get a more favorable setup today.

#12 Strike Appeal (6/1) – This colt is bred to take a step forward on the lawn and he ran well vs one of the top 2-year old’s in the country, Maxfield, on dirt last time.

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. F.Clm 20000

#3 Daring (8/5) – It doesn’t take courage to bet this filly.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 30000

#2 Take Charge d’Oro (3/1) – 1st off the claim for Asmussen, this boy is exiting a win and should take a step forward.

Race 4: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 71k

#2 Law of the Land (3/1) – Closing for a good 3rd into a slow pace in his debut, he is very logical.

Race 5: 6 Furlongs. F.Alw 50000s

#4 Peaches and Nuts (4/1) – Her debut win at Monmouth got the Conductor’s attention.

Race 6: 1 Mile. (Turf) F.Alw 75000n2x

*Gullet Shot of the Day #7 East Moon (6/1) – We finally saw that this is her preferred surface and distance last time. With her limited starts on turf, the Conductor likes her upside.

keeneland

Race 7: 6 Furlongs. OC 75000n2L

#4 Long Weekend (3/1) – This colt pressed a hot pace vs tougher at Keeneland last time and showed talent in his debut win prior. He’s working well into today.

Race 8: 1 ½ Mile. (Turf) G3 Sycamore Stakes

#4 Nakamura (7/2) – This gelding keeps getting tepid paces to close into and running big races. His win two back at Saratoga was very impressive.

Race 9: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 30000

#3 Sweet Cocoa (6/1) – Nothings better then some hot chocolate in the fall at Keeneland….with a little stew mixed int.

The Conductor’s Wednesday Preview at Keeneland

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Exciting horse race at Keeneland with multiple horses racing on the track and spectators watching from the stands.

The Conductor will figure out Keeneland before its over. He hopes.

 

Race 1: 1 Mile. F.Clm 7500

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 War Eagle’s Love (10/1) – 3rd off the layoff, she took a step forward last time and the Conductor sees another one coming. She looks to get a favorable trip as well, up close to a slow pace.

Keeneland

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 50000

#3 Han Sense (9/2), #5 California Night (3/1) – One of these Maker runners will be victorious.

Race 3: 7 Furlongs. F.Clm 25000

#5 Paint the Corners (7/2) – A young Conductor would put is 2 seamer right on the black.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs. MC 30000

#1 Visual Artist (7/2) – His 2nd last time was fast enough to beat most groups at this level.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) F.Mdn 71k

#6 Party Goer (12/1) – She’s bred to relish the lawn and the Conductor loves her work tab. Catalano is 25% with a +$0.51 ROI this year debuting runners on turf.

Race 6: 6 Furlongs. F.OC 75000n2L

#5 Blood Curdling (5/1) – Cutting back to a sprint after facing G2 company last time, she showed she can sit and pass horses in her debut win.

Race 7: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 75000n2x

#2 Patriot Drive (8/1) – Chad Brown and #5 Emaraaty (7/5) will be tough to beat, but this gelding is in good form and hasn’t missed the exacta in his last 5 tries.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs. F.MC 30000

#4 Book of Love (10/1) – She’s working well at Keeneland for solid connections and her sire is winning at a 16% with 1st time starters.

Sabbath Sunday: The Conductor’s Prayers at Keeneland

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Exciting horse race at Keeneland with multiple horses racing on the track and spectators watching from the stands.

The Conductor needs to answer the bell at Keeneland. Let’s Ride.

 

Race 1: 6 Furlongs. MC 50000

*Gullet Shot of the Day #4 Speed Effect (6/1) – Dropping to the claiming ranks for the first time, he set a wicked pace last time in a race that has come back live. He also adds blinkers today.

keeneland

Race 2: 1 1/16 Mile. Mdn 71k

#6 Lucky Curlin (4/1) – He ran a very strong late pace figure last time and has already faced some of the best two-year olds in the country. The added blinkers should put him in a better position early.

Race 3: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 50000s

#3 Untraceable (5/1) – This gelding is a different animal routing on the turf. He set a hot pace and held on last time and the Conductor can see it happening again.

Race 4: 1 Mile. Clm 32000

#7 Hardly a Secret (2/1) – He’s the best on paper and looks to get a favorable trip.

Race 5: 1 1/16 Mile. MC 30000

#8 Wicked Valentine (5/1) – She’ll rip their hearts out.

Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs (Turf) F.Alw 75000n2x

#5 Stillwater Cove (5/2) – The Conductor doesn’t have an opinion here.

Race 7: 6½ Furlongs. Mdn 71k

#1 Telephone Walker (3/1), #3 Risk Profile (4/1) – One of the Chad Brown 1st timers will get the job done.

Race 8: 5 ½ Furlongs (Turf) F.Alw 80000n2x

#6 On Probation (15/1) – She can’t leave the state, but the Conductor thinks she can hit the board at a big price.

Race 9: 1 1/16 Mile. Alw 73000n1x

#3 Patagonia (6/1) – This colt ran very well at Keeneland in his debut and is stretching out for the first time. He’ll be in a favorable spot early without much pace signed on.