Ponies, Videos

The Conductor’s Pennsylvania Derby Preview

The Pennsylvania Derby has drawn for Saturday and it is a hell of a race despite only 7 contenders. This is the best 3-year old race since the Derby and the winner will likely be the leader of the crop moving forward. Let’s see if the Conductor can help us passengers solve this puzzle.

#1 Math Wizard (8/1) – This colt is the only closer in the field and looks to get a nice trip with a hot pace in front of him. He will likely go off at a higher price and the Conductor can see him clunking up to get into the trifecta. He’s not good enough to win, but the Conductor thinks he’ll offer value underneath.

#2 Improbable (3/1) – This colt is very talented and was very impressive in his return to the races last time. His immaturity is still a concern, as he fought Van Dyke the entire first half of the Shared Belief Stakes. However, he still cut out hot fractions and won with ease. The Conductor doesn’t think we’ve seen the best of this boy yet and he’ll be one of the two runners he uses on top in this one.

#3 Shanghai Superfly (30/1) – The only runner with no business being in the race. Draw a line thru him and treat him as a scratch.

#4 War of Will (5/1) – The Conductor is against the Preakness winner in here and thinks he’s going in the wrong direction. To his credit he’s shown up in every big race, but his last two efforts have been disappointing. The Conductor thinks his campaign has taken his best out of him and you won’t find him anywhere on the Conductor’s tickets.

#5 Spun to Run (8/1) – This Colt is steadily progressing, and the Conductor really liked his win last time in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx. He split horses nicely and the race came back very fast on paper.  It’s a very tough ask for him to beat this field, but the Conductor will use him underneath in the exacta and tri.

#6 Mr. Money (4/1) – The Conductor has been a fan of this colt since he won him a nice lump of gold in the Pat Day Mile at 7/1 on Derby Day. Since then, he’s done nothing but blow away his competition. He’s stepping up against the big boys today, but the Conductor thinks he can answer the bell. His last work at Churchill could not have looked better. He’s the other contender the Conductor will use on top.

#7 Maximum Security (9/5) – The Conductor’s nemesis Maximum Security. How many times will he try to beat this boy? Well, at least one more time. The Conductor thinks he’ll go off at an even shorter price and he will get a lot of pace pressure in here. The Conductor will use him in 2nd and 3rd because he’s not a complete idiot, but he’ll make him look him in the eye and beat him one more round. Let’s go big boy, the Conductor didn’t here no bell.

 

Advertisements
Ponies, Videos

The Conductor’s Belmont Stakes Preview

The posts drew for the Belmont last night and now it’s time to go to work.  There is an inordinate number of deep closers in this race, and the Conductor hopes all the suckers fall for them because of the added distance.  This race will favor those in the first flight like it has the last in the last decade.

Race 11: 1 1/2 Mile. G1 Belmont Stakes

#1 Joevia (30/1) – He caused the chaos in the Wood and came back for a gate to wire win in a prep race last start. He’s the bomb the Conductor is most intrigued about in this race.  He’s the lone horse that want the lead. If he breaks well and goes right to the front, he can get brave late and surprise everyone but the Conductor.  The Conductor will use him heavily in 2nd and 3rd in the trifecta and possibly a sprinkle on top.

#2 Everfast (12/1) – He road a gold rail and got a hot pace to close into in the Preakness, the Conductor won’t use him anywhere especially at that price.

#3 Master Fencer (8/1) – The Derby was a funky race with the track and he’ll be coming from way out of it.  He missed the break and ran well, but if he’s not double-digit odds the Conductor won’t use anywhere.  The Conductor will make him prove him wrong

#4 Tax (15/1) – The Conductor is drawing a line thru his Derby race.  If you do that he fits very nicely in this spot. The distance is a question, but he’ll get a perfect trip up close to a slow pace. The Conductor will use him heavily in 2nd and 3rd and maybe a few saver tickets on top.

*#5 Bourbon War (12/1) – He ran a dud in the Preakness, but the Conductor will give him another shot taking the blinkers back off.  He can run all day and the Conductor thinks he may have the most potential of any runner in this group.  The Conductor will lean on that live Florida Derby form.

bourbon GIF

#6 Spinoff (15/1) – Just copy and paste what the Conductor said about tax. He looks to get a dream trip and the Conductor sees him running well.

#7 Sir Wisnston (15/1) – He took a major step forward in the Peter Pan last start, but he helped with a hot pace to close into. The Conductor can’t see him any better than 3rd.

#8 Intrepid Heart (10/1) – He stumbled at the start in the Peter Pan and was prepping for this race all along.  He adds blinkers, will be forwardly placed and is very dangerous. The Conductor will use him in all 3 spots in the trifecta.

#9 War of Will (2/1) – He won nicely in the Preakness, but you can’t ask for a better trip.  Its hard to see him not running well here, but the stubborn Conductor will take a stand against him on top.  He’ll allow him to run 2nd or 3rd.

*#10 Tacitus (9/5) – The Conductor liked him a lot going into the Derby and he ran a solid race. He should be mid-pack and will grind all day like Belmont winners do. He’s the one to beat.

triple crown GIF by Mashable

A Contenders: #5 Bourbon War, #10 Tacitus

B Contenders: #8 Intrepid Heart

C Contenders: #1 Joevia, #4 Tax, #6 Spinoff

Ponies

The Conductor’s Preakness Recap

Now that Conductor is back from a 3-day bachelor party and he’s been able to watch the Pimlico replays without 55 stews running through his veins, he has a few takeaways.

  1. The rail was where you wanted to be both Friday and Saturday.

On Thursday, almost every winner on dirt, including multiple longshots were winning with wide-sweeping swoop and pounce moves on the turn.  Friday and Saturday, that move wasn’t working at all.  The Conductor was ready to write off Win Win Win immediately after the Preakness, but anyone with the trip he got was coming up short in every race.  The Conductor will keep his eye on the horses that had wide trips to see where they end up next.

  1. War of Will ran huge, but he got a perfect trip.

He clearly ran the best, but he had to win with that trip. Saving all of the ground on a good rail, he sat behind the dueling leaders and the rail opened up for him perfectly at the top of the stretch. If he hadn’t won, he’d have 0 excuses.

  1. War of Will should have never gone off at 6/1

The Conductor’s biggest regret on Saturday is not having any saver bets on War of Will at that price.  The Conductor thought he was live, he was mostly against him because of the price he figured to be and race setup.  The Conductor thought he was going to go off at around 3/1.  With the way the track was playing and the odds he ended up at, there is no excuse for not using him. You must be on your toes and adapt on the fly to succeed in this game.  The Conductor bill blame his stew intake and lack of sleep, but he needs to keep it tighter on racing’s biggest days.

  1. The Conductor’s body is still rotting from the inside out today and he will be back proving us passengers winners tomorrow.

It feels like his bones are deteriorating while he sits.

5. Buy More Shirts so the Conductor can eat dinner.

rice and beans GIF by It's Suppertime