Ponies, Videos

The Conductor’s Belmont Stakes Preview

The posts drew for the Belmont last night and now it’s time to go to work.  There is an inordinate number of deep closers in this race, and the Conductor hopes all the suckers fall for them because of the added distance.  This race will favor those in the first flight like it has the last in the last decade.

Race 11: 1 1/2 Mile. G1 Belmont Stakes

#1 Joevia (30/1) – He caused the chaos in the Wood and came back for a gate to wire win in a prep race last start. He’s the bomb the Conductor is most intrigued about in this race.  He’s the lone horse that want the lead. If he breaks well and goes right to the front, he can get brave late and surprise everyone but the Conductor.  The Conductor will use him heavily in 2nd and 3rd in the trifecta and possibly a sprinkle on top.

#2 Everfast (12/1) – He road a gold rail and got a hot pace to close into in the Preakness, the Conductor won’t use him anywhere especially at that price.

#3 Master Fencer (8/1) – The Derby was a funky race with the track and he’ll be coming from way out of it.  He missed the break and ran well, but if he’s not double-digit odds the Conductor won’t use anywhere.  The Conductor will make him prove him wrong

#4 Tax (15/1) – The Conductor is drawing a line thru his Derby race.  If you do that he fits very nicely in this spot. The distance is a question, but he’ll get a perfect trip up close to a slow pace. The Conductor will use him heavily in 2nd and 3rd and maybe a few saver tickets on top.

*#5 Bourbon War (12/1) – He ran a dud in the Preakness, but the Conductor will give him another shot taking the blinkers back off.  He can run all day and the Conductor thinks he may have the most potential of any runner in this group.  The Conductor will lean on that live Florida Derby form.

bourbon GIF

#6 Spinoff (15/1) – Just copy and paste what the Conductor said about tax. He looks to get a dream trip and the Conductor sees him running well.

#7 Sir Wisnston (15/1) – He took a major step forward in the Peter Pan last start, but he helped with a hot pace to close into. The Conductor can’t see him any better than 3rd.

#8 Intrepid Heart (10/1) – He stumbled at the start in the Peter Pan and was prepping for this race all along.  He adds blinkers, will be forwardly placed and is very dangerous. The Conductor will use him in all 3 spots in the trifecta.

#9 War of Will (2/1) – He won nicely in the Preakness, but you can’t ask for a better trip.  Its hard to see him not running well here, but the stubborn Conductor will take a stand against him on top.  He’ll allow him to run 2nd or 3rd.

*#10 Tacitus (9/5) – The Conductor liked him a lot going into the Derby and he ran a solid race. He should be mid-pack and will grind all day like Belmont winners do. He’s the one to beat.

triple crown GIF by Mashable

A Contenders: #5 Bourbon War, #10 Tacitus

B Contenders: #8 Intrepid Heart

C Contenders: #1 Joevia, #4 Tax, #6 Spinoff

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The Conductor’s Preakness Recap

Now that Conductor is back from a 3-day bachelor party and he’s been able to watch the Pimlico replays without 55 stews running through his veins, he has a few takeaways.

  1. The rail was where you wanted to be both Friday and Saturday.

On Thursday, almost every winner on dirt, including multiple longshots were winning with wide-sweeping swoop and pounce moves on the turn.  Friday and Saturday, that move wasn’t working at all.  The Conductor was ready to write off Win Win Win immediately after the Preakness, but anyone with the trip he got was coming up short in every race.  The Conductor will keep his eye on the horses that had wide trips to see where they end up next.

  1. War of Will ran huge, but he got a perfect trip.

He clearly ran the best, but he had to win with that trip. Saving all of the ground on a good rail, he sat behind the dueling leaders and the rail opened up for him perfectly at the top of the stretch. If he hadn’t won, he’d have 0 excuses.

  1. War of Will should have never gone off at 6/1

The Conductor’s biggest regret on Saturday is not having any saver bets on War of Will at that price.  The Conductor thought he was live, he was mostly against him because of the price he figured to be and race setup.  The Conductor thought he was going to go off at around 3/1.  With the way the track was playing and the odds he ended up at, there is no excuse for not using him. You must be on your toes and adapt on the fly to succeed in this game.  The Conductor bill blame his stew intake and lack of sleep, but he needs to keep it tighter on racing’s biggest days.

  1. The Conductor’s body is still rotting from the inside out today and he will be back proving us passengers winners tomorrow.

It feels like his bones are deteriorating while he sits.

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rice and beans GIF by It's Suppertime